Is airdna good for estimating occupancy rates?

Question

Hi there, I’m new here and am

thinking about buying a vacation rental property in puerto Vallarta, Mexico. I’m crunching numbers and have airdna data for the area and when I put in the address and property stats their model spit out that my occupancy would likely only be about 56% which seems really low. It’s a 2 bed 2 bath in the romantic zone, basically the best tourist area. I have seen others stats sit at anything between 70-90%. Which numbers do I trust??

Thanks in advance!

Bernadine

John Underwood · Answer

Airdna can't differentiate between actual bookings and blocked dates for other reasons. So anything they show is going to be high.

I have maintenance time blocked, off site bookings, Vrbo and airbnb bookings that synchronized on all my calendars.

Mike Lambert · Answer

Account Closed   56% is actually a high occupancy rate for short-term rentals and, in my book and 70 - 90% looks like a total nonsense. To give you some perspective, Paris is one of the most visited cities in the world and there are tourists all year round. The occupancy rate for a short-term rental there is 74%. Puerto Vallarta is seasonal and the high season is only 4 - 5 months. Owners who have the best places in a given area and who do their marketing right will get very high occupancy rates wherever. However, they are in the minority and the purchase price of such a property could be so high that it wouldn't be very profitable as a short-term rental even at full occupancy.We've been investing in short-term rentals in the Riviera Maya (where properties are cheaper and the occupancy is higher) and I have been thinking at Puerto Vallarta as a second market in Mexico. My understanding is that properties there are now expensive compared to the potential short-term rental income, which is not that high because of the seasonality. For this reason, I haven't explored further. Let me know if you find out otherwise. I love Puerto Vallarta and I'd love to buy there if the figures would make sense.

Eric P. · Answer

AirDNA is good for uncovering general patterns (eg, which seasons have higher demand, which parts of the area have higher demand). For more precise info, you should speak with a local agent and/or local investors in that market who can guide you more precisely

Account Closed · Answer

Thanks all for the responses, very helpful!

Paul Sandhu · Answer

It's like the property values you get on Zillow.  Zillow is consistently overpricing real estate.  When I look at Zillow for property values, I look at their estimate then make an offer of 25% of the listed value.

So do the same with Airdna.  If they say the occupancy rate is 90%, it really means it's around 60%.  If they say 60%, it's probably 40%.  Those numbers of mine are a s.w.a.g.

Jake Miller · Answer

It’s not going to be perfect, and would just go off general averages, however, ai highly doubt those averages are refined enough to get down to niches, such as a home on the lake vs a home four or five blocks away will likely have vastly differeing occupancy rates.

I use its general averages as an indicator of whether or not I want to even bother with an area, if I decide to I then go in and find direct comparable homes and gather data from those ones specifically to create a much more accurate projection.

Is airdna good for estimating occupancy rates?

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