real estate cycle per location

6 Replies

I know this is a loaded question, but does anyone have any estimates or good resources to look up what part of the real estate cycle my area is in. We all know we are at the high end of the cycle as a country. However, I am learning more and more about the cycles in specific areas of the country. The BP podcast talks about sources for researching this, but I cant remember what they are. Does anyone have good suggests to research where my area may be in the real estate cycles.
Or does anyone have any thought on my areas them self....
I am in  Clatsop County specifically Seaside, OR looking at properties in Warrenton, Seaside, or Astoria. I am also interested in the Hillsborough, Beaverton, Portland area. 
Other than cycles....
I would love to hear any reasons people may be expecting an increase or drop in value in any of these areas.
I'm sure other forums discuss this, but I'm starting another one :)

Hey Dillyn,

I'm also an Oregon transplant, newbie investor. As a newbie, you can take my advice with a grain of salt.


The real estate cycle, just like any other economic cycle, is impossible to predict. There will be peaks and there will be valleys, that's for sure. IF anyone could accurately predict what phase of these cycles we were in, they probably wouldn't tell US about it. There's a good bp blog post I read on this subject yesterday that goes into a lot more depth on the subject. You can check it out here: https://www.biggerpockets.com/renewsblog/2016/07/0...

As for my opinion of the Oregon market, I'm looking at places down in Eugene/Springfield and it does seem like the market is starting to slow *slightly* down here. It's still very hot and inventory doesn't sit for long if it's priced correctly, though. My guess as to why we're seeing a slight contraction is rising interest rates coupled with slow wage growth. Once we start to see some wage growth there will be a lot more room for expansion, but that has been a long time coming.

Remember that analysis paralysis is a real thing. If you find a deal and the numbers work, don't try to time the market, just go for it. Some of the best investors out there got started at the peak in 2007 and, after taking a beating for a few years, are killing it today. The reason they made it is because they stuck with it and didn't quit.

Good luck out there!

Great advice from Angelo! 

Focus on the numbers and buy for the long-term. If you're planning on continuing to buy for years and years then the exact timing is minimized-some you'll buy up, some you'll buy down, and they'll all average out. If you're more interested in flipping then that short-term cycle is going to be more important. 

If you want a local resource, send me a PM and I'll connect you with a great agent we've referred a couple folks to out in Astoria. She'll be able to tell you more about the specifics of the North Coast. 

Thanks and good luck,

Mathew

@Angelo Medaglia

Dang Angelo, thats some solid advice for a newbie. I will read that article, thank you. Sometimes I feel like I'm swimming in a pool of analysis paralysis. I like that concept of the best investors got started in the hardest time. I want to be one of those people!
I also would love the create a platform to organize the countries real estate cycles per area. like an informational web site. 

Please reach out to me if you ever make it to the beautiful Oregon Coast! I'm in seaside and always love to meet people to talk shop and show them some sights. 

Good morning Dillyn,

If you have not heard of or not watched his videos, I recommend looking up Kris Krohn. He is pretty good at explaining how to detect changes in a market. For example, if your coming out of a new construction site with more equity than it cost to build then you can guess that we are still in the growth section of our market. Also, look to see if there are any new businesses in the area.

Being from Seaside, I would imagine you would do nicely with AirBnB. Or if you wanted, developing a new campground. We from the Valley are always looking for nice campgrounds that aren't constantly packed.

Good luck and stay in touch!!

Dillyn Marcus Millichap produces one of the most comprehensive reports available, all historical and fairly utd. Informative but not all that good as a predictive tool-but it will help guide you to deciding where we might be at. History does repeat after all-we just don't know when-until it becomes history. You are indeed fortunate to be living in Seaside!