Where is the DFW population growth going to be concentrated?

Question

Hey all,

I'm relatively new to the area and am trying to figure out which cities are going to be experiencing the most population growth in the next couple of years (ie where will appreciation be the highest?) I've heard Frisco and Mckinney. Anybody else care to give input?

Thanks!

Andrew Postell · Answer

@Austin Bright some basic concepts to know about Texas:

• The population of Texas has doubled over the past 40 years.
• 90% of that growth has occurred within 50 miles of I-35
• Both Dallas and Fort Worth are within 50 miles of I-35

So just about any city you buy a property in within the DFW area will have one of the highest increases in population in the country.

Now, if you are looking for a duplex - now that will be a larger challenge...but there are options.  Land is so cheap in Texas.  In markets like San Francisco or DC land is so expensive that they HAVE to put multiple units on a piece of land to make it worth it.  Here, you can find a home on 2 acres.  That is REALLY unusual.  So duplexes are harder to find.  But still possible to find.  Just not as plentiful as other areas of the country. Do a quick search on realtor.com or something to see where they are concentrated at and I think that will show you what areas of Fort Worth carry them.  Feel free to hit us back with any other questions. Thanks!

Kevin Miller · Answer

@Austin Bright hey Austin. Welcome to the area. I live in frisco myself and have a flip going in McKinney at the moment.  You really can do well anywhere in north Texas, but you’ve got to find the right deal.  One thing I’ve run into in the frisco/mckinney area is that there’s lots of new construction on the north side so some buyers will be swayed by a “never before owned house”.  Rentals down in garland, mesquite do pretty well too, again just gotta find the right deal.  One piece of advice, don’t let emotions get in the deal.  Do research, run the numbers, pull the trigger if numbers come back good.  If you teeter on a good deal, it’ll be gone before you can get it.

Make some good contacts with reputable contractors that’ll walk a property with you when you go to a showing so you’ll get a repair cost right then and there.  That’ll save you time and potential missing out on a good buy.

Account Closed · Answer

Frisco is definitely where the most population growth has been and will be.  I've lived here for 20 years and watched it grow from corn fields to the home of the Dallas Cowboys Headquarters at Frisco Station. Also, the PGA Headquarters are also relocating  to Frisco over the next three years.

Here's a couple of recent articles that you might be interested in:

https://www.nar.realtor/sites/...

https://www.dallasnews.com/bus...

Let me know if you have any questions.  I'd be happy to help.

Roland Brown · Answer

@Austin Bright

I’m partial to the Plano, Frisco, Mckinney area for sure.

Looking for a Duplex, good options are along 121, A friend of mind landed a good deal in Copeland recently on a Duplex.

If you are working in Ft Worth it makes a lot of sense to look there.

I’m not an expert there but I’m glad to jump on a phone call and talk about the overall DFW are as well as get you connected with an expert in Ft Worth.

Ronald Rohde · Answer

I do not see that anywhere in North Texas.

Austin Bright · Answer

@Roland BrownThanks for the help! I would like to be connected to someone if possible. However, due to personal circumstances, I will likely not go through with a purchase untill late 2020. If your contact is ok with my timeline, I would be happy to be connected.

@Andrew Postell Part of the reason I am so interested in a duplex/multifamily is due to the fact that I would need total monthly revenue of around 2300 to cash flow on 3.5% down on a 200k loan (My max price right now). That's a lot easier when I can rent each side for 1150, rather than one SFH @ 2300. If you are familiar with any areas where 200K SFHs can rent for $2300, I'd be happy to learn which areas!

Austin Bright · Answer

@Kevin Miller Account Closed Thanks so much! I really like the idea of house hacking a duplex using an FHA Loan. Is that something I can find in Frisco? What about a little closer to Fort Worth (where I work)? Thanks again!

Account Closed · Answer

@Austin Bright  I have one occupied "B-" SFR rental and a 2nd "A-" fix and hold in Collin County (home to Frisco and McKinney). All of the input / feedback you have received in this thread is high quality in my opinion. The entire DFW metro has a tailwind at it's back from the perspective of macro demographic and economic trends. Frisco is experiencing major employers relocating corporate headquarters there, however, the "x-factor" to consider at the low end of the SFR market is that there is a TON of relatively cheap open land in close proximity, which is resulting in lots of new (relatively) affordable housing stock that's putting pressure on older rentals on the market. I speak from experience here.

I agree with others whole-heartedly that commuting longer than 30 minutes each way to work is a soul sucking exercise that will drain the will to live out of you in about a week or two. In addition to the psychic toll, many of the fastest routes across the metro region involve toll roads, which over months and years can add up to a not-insignificant expense (Again, speaking from past experience).

Last thing, there are some really good "C" rental markets in more middle-range communities throughout the DFW metroplex that may yield decent cash flows without the nosebleed valuations we have been seeing in Frisco and surrounding communities. One particular market I have heard good things about is Grand Prairie, but there are many more South, East and West of Dallas proper.

Best of luck, you are definitely asking the right sorts of questions! J.

Austin Bright · Answer

@Matt Powell Thanks for the  idea!

@Lucia Rushton Yea I see multifamily homes pop up every now and then! I'll keep looking! What do you all think is the profile of someone who might rent 1/2 a duplex?

Matt Powell · Answer

@Austin Bright

Might also look for SFH near universities and rent by the room. 4+ br or larger square footage with opportunities to add beds

200k won’t stretch far near TCU in Fort Worth, but would go a lot farther near UTA in Arlington. Lots going on there with AT&T stadium, GM plant, and the new Ranger’s ballpark under construction.

Where is the DFW population growth going to be concentrated?

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