Coming Great Depression?

113 Replies

Does anyone else believe in Austrian Economics & follow Peter Schiff & Lew Rockwell & think that when the everything bubble pops in next couple years (we are already in 2nd longest expansion ever) that we will have an event at least as bad as a Great Depression & a full blown dollar crisis with cryptos & hard assets coming to replace it?

way above my pay grade..

I have no clue as to what crypto currencies are I just learned to cut and paste on the computer 3 years ago and well.. its just all to confusing to me.. !!

So Max, you believe the mainstream media that everything is just rosy?

And what about 2008? Where was the media then? And they mocked Peter then just as they do now & he nailed it.

And Jay this stuff is my specialty, even if it is unfortunately just plain & literally depressing!

Originally posted by @Matt Millard :

So Max, you believe the mainstream media that everything is just rosy?

And what about 2008? Where was the media then? And they mocked Peter then just as they do now & he nailed it.

And Jay this stuff is my specialty, even if it is unfortunately just plain & literally depressing!

 2008 was a buying opportunity, not an "event at least as bad as a Great Depression". And I didn't say anything about the media - you did, but I'll bite. I'm faaaar from being sold on cryptos coming in to replace the dollar.

But hey, go for it if that suits you!

The dollar has lost 99.9% of value. $21 trillion in debt & growing & another $200 trillion in unfunded liabilities. China just started pricing oil in yuan ending the petrodollar. Need I say more.

2008 was a wake up call for a radical event that happens less than once a lifetime.

Also read David Stockman & tell me if he’s wrong too. Trump can only delay things with tax cuts & more.

You’re correct you didn’t comment on media I did. But the narrative of you & most of the population is almost verbatim what they present & sell everyday. I’m definitely not a Keynesian as challenging the Staten got me C & D’s & almost kicked out of my economics degree program!

I also buy real estate & other hard assets like oil & metals precisely because they can serve as a currency of their own & protect me from government & the dollar.

Cryptos are in their infancy & I understand your skepticism as they have a long way to go & will become hard asset backed like a gold standard after the next crash. This is the learning curve!

I doubt anything worse than 08 will occur. Governments artificially support economy to prevent a actual "depression".

Just a normal adjustment brought about by the present easy money and unqualified borrowers. Your system of allowing almost anyone to have 3.5% (Canidien 5%) down on mortgages and skyrocketing appreciation is extremely worrisome. No doubt an adjustment is looming. 

That’s true Thomas until they lose credibility & the dollar & FED are exposed for what they are. This time they won’t be able to just bail it out. The road is coming to an abrupt end!

THE SKY IS FALLING!! THE SKY IS FALLING!!

I believe a major problem is looming. I believe recent "event"  have postponed the problem, but with more and more uniformed millennials reaching adulthood every day the issue will not be corrected until a crash.

When that crash happens everyone will be impacted whether they prepare or not, and there's simply nothing that can get the masses of Tide-Pod eating, condom-snorting millenials to reject their pop-culture educations aside from that very same economic collapse they are hell-bent to see.

In other words, I recognize that it is inevitable and that there's not a damn thing I can do about it.

Until then I plan on being smart with money, investing in real estate, and avoiding wasteful debt on items that aren't income-generating assets... expert for my truck and pets lol

I do believe in Austrian Economics and followed Schiff pretty close from '07 until a year or so ago. The constant 'sky is falling' got a bit tiresome, but I do believe the days are numbered for fiat currency.

Guys it’s not as easy as you’re making it out to get a FHA or conventional loan. Good income, low debt ratio, 2 yrs tax returns. You act like banks are giving it away just because the DP is low sheesh.

My prediction: Foretellers of "the apocalypse" will someday be proved right...

Originally posted by @Matt Millard :
Does anyone else believe in Austrian Economics & follow Peter Schiff & Lew Rockwell & think that when the everything bubble pops in next couple years (we are already in 2nd longest expansion ever) that we will have an event at least as bad as a Great Depression & a full blown dollar crisis with cryptos & hard assets coming to replace it?

 The great depression was bad because there was no "safety" net for people. There were Soup Lines and Hoovervilles. People had one set of clothes. A lot of homes didn't have electricity or indoor plumbing. There really wasn't much monetary fluidity BUT there were farms. People could actually exchange a chicken for medical attention from a doctor. Now, everybody pays their bills by electronic transfer. (I don't pay that way because of all of the hacking that is going on but that is a different discussion). 

People live in cities and suburbs and have no idea how to grow their own food. Food is the cheapest it has ever been. Now, even poor people are fat, waste food, have the internet, have a car, have Air Conditioning, live in bigger houses, everybody has access to electricity, gas is relatively cheap, we have an Over Supply of Oil, roads are relatively well kept, tires last longer, instead of a car going 100,000 miles they go 300,000 miles, clothing is almost free at 2nd hand stores, bundles of clothes are shipped over seas because they can't be sold here, everybody has a gadget that fits in their pocket that gives them instant access to anybody in the world by entering a phone number or email address or URL, can play 1,000s of songs, and has far more compute power than what it took to put men on the moon. 

Who, other than me actually uses cash any more? It's "insert your card" and away you go. The government can simply generate another Trillion by doing another QE1, QE2, QE3, (Electronic money - out of nowhere) ad Infinitum to spur the velocity of money. Or, ... So they think. At some point the system breaks, the Black Swan arrives (trade war with China?, hot war with Iran?, Europe does something quite stupid?, Turkey attacks Israel? and I could go on) An interruption in the internet? A Coronal Mass Ejection? An EMP attack?  These are the biggest threats and issues.

That is one reason I am in real estate and that I only buy using Subject To and Wraps. The more I own, WISELY, (Low debt and cash flowing) the less I will notice the economic changes (and disasters) when they occur.

Originally posted by @Matt Millard :

So Max, you believe the mainstream media that everything is just rosy?

And what about 2008? Where was the media then? And they mocked Peter then just as they do now & he nailed it.

And Jay this stuff is my specialty, even if it is unfortunately just plain & literally depressing!

 You realize the mainstream media is just fake news according to our man Trump. He just started the trade war with China, and according to him, trade wars are easy to win. Hope so. He also warned us it may cause some short term pain. Hope so.

I did very well in the crash before 2008, when the market hit rock bottom in 1993 and I loaded up all my foreclosures. Prices are so ridiculously high now, I can't buy anything. I anxiously await  our team Trump to start things rolling, downhill of course. Just get the popcorn and watch the show. The short term pain will be a good buying opportunity, and come sooner than we think. Can't wait.  

Life is full of ups and downs; however, we all wake up and take the life ride.

Would there be a recession or correction sometime in the nearest future? Absolutely, if history has taught us anything we understand its cyclical effect. 

Now, that shouldn't stop the savvy investors from going about their real estate investment activities, cryptos or otherwise. 

The only thing we can try to do is prepare for it and not be crippled by this big monster thing coming.

Ola, I like your perspective & have done what I can to prepare. That’s about all we can do. And an economic crash may be bad but it doesn’t mean the sky is falling.

I’m not a Trump fan & realize that the King of Debt is just extending things as Hillary would have already helped us find the bottom. And I agree about their being nothing to buy unless you’re in mobile home parks or lease to own. I think Trump will watch the dollar fall & the trade war & budget deficits are only the beginning.

I personally wrote in Rand Paul & would do so again.

Originally posted by @Jay Hinrichs :

I have no clue as to what crypto currencies are I just learned to cut and paste on the computer 3 years ago and well.. its just all to confusing to me.. !!

I can remember years ago when I wanted to go back to something I was doing on the computer. I found a link that said  BACK UP.... So I did and everything went away as I didnt have a floppy disk in to store it in. 

To be honest to an Austrian the one thing people want is timing & while it can be relatively predicted it’s never exact & can more easily be seen in retrospect. As Peter Schiff says I would rather be wrong, wrong, wrong continually & eventually proven right than be right all along & eventually in the end proven dead wrong.

Great post, it is interesting assessing sentiment which is ultimately what drives economies. The question may be better served with a time (say 5 years) qualifier because ultimately we are all screwed when the sun super novas in 5 billion years! And i will agree to eventual reordering of economic strata including paper money, how we work, who will own the robots that do all the labor etc.

Near term our country (and money) is simply less bad (less debt) than all other major economies, which will add support to the dollar in the actionable future.

More likely is all the debt will act to curb economic growth, kinda like a train going uphill, more debt increases the pith of the hill we have to climb and ultimately reaches a point where we cannot move ahead at all.

Thats when the big war starts

I agree with a lot of what you are saying but you posed this as a question. It seems more like you already have your answer and you are just wanting to talk about this with others?

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