The Holiday Window Most Investors Underestimate

[Rob Bergeron]

The market has a little pulse again. Rates are creeping up—not enough to grab headlines, just enough to remind you that hesitation rarely pays. The 30-year fixed is sitting at 6.28% today, and if you’ve been circling a property that’s been sitting too long, this is the moment to lean in and test the waters.

Take an 80% offer at something stale. Start a seller-financing conversation. Owners heading into the holidays are far more open to solutions than they were 60 days ago.

Then the national data dropped.

Realtor.com is predicting double-digit growth in home sales for 2026, a 4% rise in prices, and zero expectation of price declines nationwide.
That’s the national market finally echoing the trend Louisville has been showing all year. We don’t boom-bust—we slow-lift, slow-settle, and stay steady. When national volume returns, markets like ours tend to outperform quietly and quickly.

Another useful signal:

Lumber just hit its lowest price since October 2024.
Perfect conditions for builders, flippers, investors, and anyone eyeing new construction or heavy value-add projects. Lower material costs + expected national demand = a real opportunity window.

And then there's the underwater-mortgage conversation. Negative equity is ticking up—VA and FHA loans, 2023–2025 vintages.

But here’s the real takeaway:
The people in those situations need solutions, not pressure.
Short holds, thin equity, tough timing—these require creativity, negotiation, exits, and structure. That’s where we do our best work.

On the investment side, a clear pattern is emerging:

A lot of my seasoned landlords are in refinement mode—shedding the time-suck properties and reallocating into quieter, more scalable cash-flow lanes.
Oil and gas.
Data-center participation.
Warehouses.
Not easier. Just cleaner. More durable. More leveraged in the right way.

If that’s where your head is at, reach out. These conversations are becoming the norm.

As we move through the holidays, motivation rises. Showings matter more. Real interest matters more. Deals thaw out. If you’ve been waiting for a natural opening… this is the moment. Turn curiosity into action.