Record Unemployment. Record Relistings. One Thread Connects Them.

[Rob Bergeron]

"The young man knows the rules, the old man knows the exceptions." — Charlie Munger

Most people read that and nod. Few people actually live by it. And right now, in this economy, in this housing market, the gap between those two groups is getting wider by the week.

Let's start with what's happening nationally, because the context matters before we get to what it means for you.

Bloomberg reported this week that unemployed Americans with four-year college degrees have hit a record high. Not a blip. A record. The credential that was supposed to be the key — the thing that unlocked stable employment, upward mobility, and eventually homeownership — is no longer performing the way the rule said it would. An entire generation followed the instructions precisely and arrived at a destination that doesn't match the brochure.

At the same time, Redfin data shows that 44,698 homes that were pulled from the market last year were relisted in January 2026 — the highest January figure since tracking began in 2016. Relistings have surged 167% since 2022 and now represent a record 3.6% of all active listings. Sellers who walked away from the market in December — when delistings hit a record 112,788 — didn't leave because they sold. They left because they refused to accept what buyers were willing to pay. Now they're back, hoping the spring buying season creates the demand their asking price couldn't command on its own.

That's not confidence returning to the market. That's hope re-entering a market that hasn't changed enough to justify it.

Here's what that means in practice. More supply is coming online into a market that is already tilted toward buyers. More negotiating room. More days on market. More sellers who need to move and are running out of patience. That is opportunity — but only if you know how to read it.

You can see it playing out here in Louisville in real time. Inventory jumped 38.6% year over year in February. New listings were up 11.8%. The week of March 8–14 alone brought 572 new listings to market compared to 466 the same week last year. The median sales price rose 4.8% to $285,085 and the average climbed 6.8% to $341,997 — so prices are holding on paper. But days on market increased 22% to 72 days. That is the number I want you to sit with.

Seventy-two days. In a market where rates are sitting at 6.12% on a 30-year fixed, sellers cannot afford to be wrong on price. Buyers who are educated, patient, and working with someone who understands the exceptions have more leverage right now than they've had in years. Not because the market crashed. Because the market is in transition, and most people are still reading it through the old rules.

The rule said: low inventory means sellers win. The exception is: when sellers re-enter a market out of hope rather than necessity, the dynamic shifts — and the shift is already showing up in the days-on-market data before it ever shows up in the headlines.

The credential economy is cracking. The people who are winning right now aren't the ones with the most letters after their name — they're the ones who learned to read markets, adapt in real time, and work with people who've seen enough cycles to know where the exceptions live.

The 30-year fixed rate mortgage is currently at 6.12%.