Zillow Down 70%. Louisville Up 17%.

[Rob Bergeron]

Between 2020 and 2021, the market told a story. Zero interest rates, stimulus-fueled demand, and a collective suspension of disbelief convinced billions of dollars worth of investors that real estate had finally been "disrupted." Zillow was going to be Amazon. Redfin was going to be Netflix. Opendoor was going to make the traditional agent obsolete.

Then reality showed up and handed them all a bill.

Zillow down 70%. Compass down 80%. Redfin down 90%. Opendoor down 95%. Average across the group: roughly 85% from peak. That's not a bad quarter. That's not a rate cycle. That's the market reaching a verdict — and the verdict was this: real estate isn't a tech business. It's a transaction business. No volume, no revenue. Low margins, no profits. High overhead, no forgiveness.

The institutions that bet on the algorithm lost. The people who bet on relationships, market knowledge, and being actually useful to human beings navigating the biggest financial decision of their lives? Still standing.

Here's where it gets interesting locally.

This past week in Louisville — March 15 through March 21 — new listings came in at 530, up from 483 in the same week last year. That's nearly a 10% increase in fresh inventory hitting the market. Year-to-date, we're sitting at 5,083 listings compared to 4,322 at this point in 2025 — a 17.6% jump. Supply is clearly loosening.

But solds told a different story. 226 closings this week versus 290 in the same week last year. Year-to-date solds stand at 2,497 for 2026 versus 2,630 for 2025. We have more product and fewer closings. That spread — more supply, less absorption — is exactly the kind of friction that creates motivated sellers and investor opportunity, if you know how to read it.

And here's a thread that doesn't get woven into housing conversations often enough: the job market is rewriting itself in real time. According to CNBC, the average job opening now receives 242 applications — triple the 2017 average. Entry-level hiring, per Fortune, is the worst it's been in 37 years. Every company wants senior talent, nobody wants to build it. At a 242:1 applicant ratio, HR departments have mathematically given up on the public pool and moved almost entirely to internal referrals and networks.

What does that have to do with real estate? Everything.

When young people can't find work, they don't form households. When they don't form households, they don't buy starter homes. When starter homes don't move, the entire move-up chain gets stuck. The inventory story in Louisville and nationally isn't just about rates and builders — it's downstream of a labor market that stopped welcoming new entrants.

Which is exactly why investors with cash, connections, and a willingness to act in a slow market are piling up chips right now instead of waiting.

The PropTech companies that tried to replace the transaction got wrecked. The transaction is still here. It always was.

30 year interest rates are sitting at 6.37% today. These sellers are motivated and need solutions. Let's make it happen!