April 2020 Austin Market Report
The greater Austin metro area spent April 2020 under an unprecedented shelter-in-place order in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. According to the Austin Board of REALTORS (ABoR), this led to a 33% decrease in closed sales and a 24% decrease in new listings in the City of Austin compared to April 2019. However, Austin's median residential sales price rose by 12% to $421,000 over that same period. Suburbs and outlying communities were collectively up 3% to $325,000. However, the pandemic in those areas caused a 21% decrease in sales and a 21% decrease in new listings. Inventory was down in Austin slightly compared to this time last year at 1.6 months.
So, despite the pandemic and shelter-in-place orders, April 2020 continued the familiar overall pattern in the Austin metro of low inventory, high buyer demand, and rising home prices. Romeo Manzanilla, 2020 ABoR president, commented, “We anticipated a sharp decline in April home sales activity, as it directly correlates with the decline in listings activity recorded in March due to government stay-at-home orders. Even with the impact to home sales, homes still spent less time on the market and sold at higher prices than last April. Austin’s housing demand is undeterred, and possibly strengthened by declining inventory.”
Here are basic stats on residential sales for April 2020 for the City of Austin and the greater Austin area:
Here's local market data on a more fine-grained time scale:
Austin unemployment in March 2020 was a seasonally adjusted 3.4%, which was up from 2.5% in February (source). However, more Texans filed unemployment claims over a seven week span in March and April than in all of 2019. Unemployment is forecasted to be around 12.4% state-wide for April 2020. Austin’s number should be lower, but it will still mark a significant increase from the previous years’ trend. The below chart is for Texas statewide:
This chart of passenger traffic at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport is a good proxy to drive home how rapidly and severely the national and Austin economy shut down:
The real estate market definitely slowed to a crawl in the first couple weeks of the pandemic, but activity appears quickly returning. My colleagues and I can personally attest that the market is very much moving in Austin and currently still in an extreme seller’s market at most price points. Appropriately priced listings in desirable locations are still commonly receiving multiple offers. We haven’t seen a significant softening in prices. In fact, as reported above, the median sales price in April 2020 was up 12% year over year in Austin. Nobody knows, though, what the ultimate impact will be on the housing market will be as Texas begins opening its economy. We’re facing unprecedented job losses and potential long-term changes to governmental policy and consumer behavior. Many of the April 2020 sales were under contract in March before we felt the full force of the pandemic.
Major companies and employers are still finding Austin attractive. Tesla has signaled interest in Texas over the past couple of years, but rumor now has it that they are very likely building their newest “Terafactory” in the Austin metro area to produce their new Cybertruck and Model Y. Someone I know on the commercial side pegged the new RCR Taylor Logistics Park in the NE Austin metro between Hutto and Taylor as the future site. However, there's been no official announcement.
