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Updated about 1 month ago on . Most recent reply

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Mateo Yanez Barbosa
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What tools do you actually use to analyze a deal before making an offer?

Posted

Been going deep on the deal analysis process lately talking to a lot of first-time investors about their workflow before they make an offer.

What I keep hearing: people are stitching together 3–4 different tools (spreadsheets, Mashvisor, DealCheck, Zillow, random calculators) and still not feeling confident in their numbers.

Curious what this community actually uses. Specifically:

What does your workflow look like from "I found an interesting property" to "I'm making an offer"?

What do you wish existed that doesn't?

For those who've passed on a deal. How did you arrive at that decision?

Not selling anything. Building something in this space and trying to understand the real workflow before I build the wrong thing.

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Ryan Stomel
  • Property Manager
  • Calabasas, CA
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Ryan Stomel
  • Property Manager
  • Calabasas, CA
Replied

@Christian Spencer — good question. From the commercial side, it's both, but they show up at different stages.

The input trust problem comes first. For residential investors it's rent estimates — are the Zillow/RentCast numbers actually what this unit will lease for in this condition in this micro-market. On the commercial side it's even harder because there often aren't good comps. You're looking at a retail strip with one vacancy and trying to estimate achievable rent for a space that's been dark for 18 months. That's not a tool problem, that's a market knowledge problem, and no software solves it.

The "what numbers matter and in what order" problem is actually worse for first-timers and it's underserved. Residential underwriting has a relatively standard sequence that a lot of tools walk you through — rent, vacancy, expenses, NOI, debt service, cash-on-cash. Commercial deals have that same skeleton but with 10 variables that can change the answer completely before you even get to cap rate math: lease structure, remaining term, rollover risk, tenant credit, expense recovery language, etc. Most people don't know what to look at first, so they run the cap rate math and stop.

The "analysis vs portfolio" gap you mentioned is the right insight. That's where most tools leave you — they're great at deal analysis but the underwriting assumptions disappear into a file folder. Whether the deal performed to your assumptions is a question most operators can't answer without going back and manually rebuilding the original model. That's a real gap.

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