ARV validation over $85k

8 Replies

Hello all. I've done about four transactions this year with rentals and flips. However, I'm trying to verify if the ARV for this property would exceed $85k given sales in last 6 months... if you could help me, decipher this I'd be very, very grateful and know if it's a good wholesale deal or not!

3023 hickorynut street, Jacksonville, FL 32208 ($26900 list price)

I have looked at that home from afar and wondered about it myself.  Seems like a good location with a lot of upside potential. Best of luck.

Have you had a realtor run a CMA? Based on the recently solds that I can see, without access to the MLS, it does not look like it could support a $85K ARV

Thanks for responding. I did and her numbers are above the $85k, which is confusing. After looking closer, I can see that her comps are 4 br homes, but the subject prop is a 3 br. However, the sq ft are nearly the same.

Unfortunately, MLS does not support the 85K ARV as the comps are not similar to the subject property. For example, a 4/2 with 2100+ sq. ft. not to far from this 2/1 sold for 120k within the past 6 months. Also, in this particular zip code, home prices change from block to block. RPR has an AVM of about 33k to 48k. This "might" be a wholesale deal.

This ARV has Zillow written all over it. Zillow estimates are about 70% inaccurate. There are so many inaccuracies with Zillow estimates that we can save that for another discussion.

Best of luck and don't stop!!

Pete

I agree with everyone else. Not confident in 85k ARV. First of all, it's listed as a 2/1 on MLS. Secondly, there are a handful of 2/1s nearby that sold for ~15k with similar looking pictures. This is obviously a very superficial glance, and your sq ft and condition may be better (plus the exact block might be nice as well) but 85k seems like a stretch no matter what.

Good luck!

Thanks for all the valuable feedback, may sit this one out after receiving vaild and non-bias responses. 

In my opinion, an ARV of 85k is way off for that property/location. I would use a conservative $35-$38/sq ft to calculate my ARV for that house.

Looks like it needs a lot of work.  It needs to be obtained at a deep discount to be profitable for a rehabber.

In that neighborhood, the end buyer of that property will most likely be a landlord.

Good luck.

Originally posted by @Orlando Spencer :

Thanks for responding. I did and her numbers are above the $85k, which is confusing. After looking closer, I can see that her comps are 4 br homes, but the subject prop is a 3 br. However, the sq ft are nearly the same.

It is actually a 2 bedroom 1 bath and not a 3 bedroom per se... and also not sure how they got an ARV in excess of $85K on the property -- that is an extreme stretch. You do have to be careful as I have had some realtors do something similar by using properties in a comp (whether in error or deliberately) that had the effect of skewing and inflating the value substantially.

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