Rescission anytime soon???

Question

I was looking to invest in a property and stocks at the age of 18 but I realized theres a pattern of the rescission. Every 18 years I see that there's a rescission in the economy and i was wondering if anyone else has noticed this and if you are able to predict around if it will happen soon? I'm not sure how I can create a prediction on this and was wondering if anyone could help me on this topic, thanks!

J Castro · Answer

A lot of people try to find patterns in economic cycles, and there actually have been theories about longer-term real estate and debt cycles happening roughly every 15–20 years. But the reality is that recessions are extremely difficult to predict consistently.

If you look back:• 2008 was driven heavily by housing and lending issues• 2020 was caused by a global pandemic• other downturns came from inflation, oil shocks, banking problems, etc.

The triggers are usually different every time.

At 18, one of the biggest advantages you have is time. Trying to perfectly time the next recession is much harder than learning how to invest responsibly through different market conditions.

A few things that matter more long term:• buying assets with solid fundamentals• keeping cash reserves• avoiding overleveraging• focusing on cash flow and sustainability• staying invested consistently

Ironically, downturns often create some of the best opportunities for investors who are financially prepared.

So instead of asking “When is the next recession?” it may be more useful to ask:“How can I position myself so I can take advantage of opportunities regardless of when it happens?”

That mindset usually ages much better than market predictions.