Putting $1M into Crypto

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Putting $1M into Crypto

Steve K.
Realtor · Boulder, CO · Member since 2016 · 3k+ posts · 5k+ votes

The President Announced a Strategic Crypto Reserve consisting of ether, XRP, SOL, and Cardano/ADA. His son Eric said crypto is better than real estate for 2025. It seems like except for crypto, the economy is crashing. Should I sell my real estate and invest in crypto in 2025?

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James Wise
Real Estate Broker · Cleveland Dayton Cincinnati Toledo Columbus & Akron, OH · Member since 2013 · 30k+ posts · 20k+ votes
1y
Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:
Quote from @James Wise:
Quote from @Steve K.:

@Jay Hinrichs Ohio, Columbus, Cleveland @Jim K. @James Wise 


 I don't invest in things I don't understand and I don't invest in things that I can't control. For those reasons, I've never got into Crypto so I got no friggin clue.


LOL me too.. my son in law is always telling me  to buy it though.  And I have some clients in Baltimore that were telling me to buy some when it got down to 15k a few years ago.. But I also had a client the year before get hosed with it.. going form 60k she paid and selling at 20k.  I remember when it was 1 dollar and I do kick myself for not taking 1k and buying a thousand of them :) Even though I did not understand it then and done really now..  will stick to renting my money out to others for a fee that seems to have worked for me by and large for decades along with rehabbing or building new construction.. But like crypto can crash real estate was/is not immune from falling either.. we got hammered in 09 to 2011. 

 I look at it like this......If there is a random group of 10,000 people, I am probably smarter, better, and more experienced than 99% of them when it comes to making money in real estate. 

Likewise, if there is a random group of 10,000 people, I am probably less knowledgeable and experienced in Crypto than 99% of them.

Only an idiot would invest their money in an area where they are on the bottom 1% when they could just invest it in an area where they are on the top 1%.

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  • V.G JasonPro Member
    Investor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    1y

    BTC hit new all time highs.

    Nothing but QE and M2 supply straight up & hard to the right for the last 4 weeks. Very curious how long this can last.

    Keep eye out for gold, oil, btc price and 10 year. Curious how housing market is going sit going into fall then EOY; it looks frozen and grim. 

    NVIDIA earnings next Wed. Is the QE/M2 run up post tariff announcement just a run up and the rug will pull here in June, or will it last longer. I don't know but going to run similar plays, and actually bake most of the capital in buy/write's & puts in quality, finish averaging into crude, keep a BTC/MSTR play, and have my gold already sized in. Think fall gold will see a rally. Want to see how the major indices play close to the 200 DMA into mid June-July. 

    0Reply
    • James Hamling
      Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes
      1y
      Quote from @V.G Jason:

      BTC hit new all time highs.

      Nothing but QE and M2 supply straight up & hard to the right for the last 4 weeks. Very curious how long this can last.

      Keep eye out for gold, oil, btc price and 10 year. Curious how housing market is going sit going into fall then EOY; it looks frozen and grim. 

      NVIDIA earnings next Wed. Is the QE/M2 run up post tariff announcement just a run up and the rug will pull here in June, or will it last longer. I don't know but going to run similar plays, and actually bake most of the capital in buy/write's & puts in quality, finish averaging into crude, keep a BTC/MSTR play, and have my gold already sized in. Think fall gold will see a rally. Want to see how the major indices play close to the 200 DMA into mid June-July. 


      Today's NVDA drop was a warning. A very BIG warning signal. 

      At 30+ PE, good earnings report won't matter vs the entire economic outlook. People started crying "manipulation" as NVDA walked off a cliff from 137, and are stupidly ignoring the catalyst of it all. 

      It's the market making a very simple statement. 

      That if you want sky-high valuations the environment BETTER be wonderful. 

      And it's not. There is a lot of bad fundamentals slowly working there way through things. 

      I am strongly bearish because these things will come out and as they come out it will be a cold shower on the perma-bull run. 

      NVDA can be selling units like gang busters and it won't matter when the average American is debt loaded to the gills and economy is contracting. You can't eat gpu's. 

      All this brings a sobering of the market to ask does a 40+ PE actually make sense? Or better yet a 300+ PE..... 

      The sobering will look like a "collapse" in some manners but it's not, it's a correction, to sound fundamentals of FAIR valuations vs fantasy valuations. 

      PLTR is perched so high on bloated BS.... 526 P/E.... Does everyone know what this valuation means? They could literally DOUBLE profits every 3 months, for the next year, and it would still be obscenely over valued. 

      Apple is a 31 P/E, to put it into context. 

      The market is absolutely still drunk and high in some manners. When saying PLTR is more then 10X the near future innovation of Apple. Or more then 4X the innovation and growth of Tesla..... 

      I peg September..... Sobriety September.... Could come sooner but I can't picture how the insanity last's much past that. Cracks are opening up all over the place. BTC is going up because $ is going to BTC. More people should be asking and wondering why. 

      1Reply
    • V.G JasonPro Member
      Investor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
      1y
      Quote from @James Hamling:
      Quote from @V.G Jason:

      BTC hit new all time highs.

      Nothing but QE and M2 supply straight up & hard to the right for the last 4 weeks. Very curious how long this can last.

      Keep eye out for gold, oil, btc price and 10 year. Curious how housing market is going sit going into fall then EOY; it looks frozen and grim. 

      NVIDIA earnings next Wed. Is the QE/M2 run up post tariff announcement just a run up and the rug will pull here in June, or will it last longer. I don't know but going to run similar plays, and actually bake most of the capital in buy/write's & puts in quality, finish averaging into crude, keep a BTC/MSTR play, and have my gold already sized in. Think fall gold will see a rally. Want to see how the major indices play close to the 200 DMA into mid June-July. 


      Today's NVDA drop was a warning. A very BIG warning signal. 

      At 30+ PE, good earnings report won't matter vs the entire economic outlook. People started crying "manipulation" as NVDA walked off a cliff from 137, and are stupidly ignoring the catalyst of it all. 

      It's the market making a very simple statement. 

      That if you want sky-high valuations the environment BETTER be wonderful. 

      And it's not. There is a lot of bad fundamentals slowly working there way through things. 

      I am strongly bearish because these things will come out and as they come out it will be a cold shower on the perma-bull run. 

      NVDA can be selling units like gang busters and it won't matter when the average American is debt loaded to the gills and economy is contracting. You can't eat gpu's. 

      All this brings a sobering of the market to ask does a 40+ PE actually make sense? Or better yet a 300+ PE..... 

      The sobering will look like a "collapse" in some manners but it's not, it's a correction, to sound fundamentals of FAIR valuations vs fantasy valuations. 

      PLTR is perched so high on bloated BS.... 526 P/E.... Does everyone know what this valuation means? They could literally DOUBLE profits every 3 months, for the next year, and it would still be obscenely over valued. 

      Apple is a 31 P/E, to put it into context. 

      The market is absolutely still drunk and high in some manners. When saying PLTR is more then 10X the near future innovation of Apple. Or more then 4X the innovation and growth of Tesla..... 

      I peg September..... Sobriety September.... Could come sooner but I can't picture how the insanity last's much past that. Cracks are opening up all over the place. BTC is going up because $ is going to BTC. More people should be asking and wondering why. 

      If indices touch the 200 DMA here in mid June to July, the draw is usually Sep-Oct if there's no recovery discernible recovery in August from Q2 earnings or other macro factors.

      Unfortunately, folks like Bessent know this so it would not surprise me to see QE if we anticipate poor earnings.

      The trade to me on that front is gold. Gold will rip if equities dip, gold will rip if QE persists. 

      PLTR will always be suspicious. I don't really get involved in shorting this or Tesla-- feel it can draw cult like behavior. Easy to get steamrolled. Do have a long-standing vertical spread against them in Oct 17 and Feb 20.


      BTC is m2 related.
      0Reply
    • James Hamling
      Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes
      1y
      Quote from @V.G Jason:
      Quote from @James Hamling:
      Quote from @V.G Jason:

      BTC hit new all time highs.

      Nothing but QE and M2 supply straight up & hard to the right for the last 4 weeks. Very curious how long this can last.

      Keep eye out for gold, oil, btc price and 10 year. Curious how housing market is going sit going into fall then EOY; it looks frozen and grim. 

      NVIDIA earnings next Wed. Is the QE/M2 run up post tariff announcement just a run up and the rug will pull here in June, or will it last longer. I don't know but going to run similar plays, and actually bake most of the capital in buy/write's & puts in quality, finish averaging into crude, keep a BTC/MSTR play, and have my gold already sized in. Think fall gold will see a rally. Want to see how the major indices play close to the 200 DMA into mid June-July. 


      Today's NVDA drop was a warning. A very BIG warning signal. 

      At 30+ PE, good earnings report won't matter vs the entire economic outlook. People started crying "manipulation" as NVDA walked off a cliff from 137, and are stupidly ignoring the catalyst of it all. 

      It's the market making a very simple statement. 

      That if you want sky-high valuations the environment BETTER be wonderful. 

      And it's not. There is a lot of bad fundamentals slowly working there way through things. 

      I am strongly bearish because these things will come out and as they come out it will be a cold shower on the perma-bull run. 

      NVDA can be selling units like gang busters and it won't matter when the average American is debt loaded to the gills and economy is contracting. You can't eat gpu's. 

      All this brings a sobering of the market to ask does a 40+ PE actually make sense? Or better yet a 300+ PE..... 

      The sobering will look like a "collapse" in some manners but it's not, it's a correction, to sound fundamentals of FAIR valuations vs fantasy valuations. 

      PLTR is perched so high on bloated BS.... 526 P/E.... Does everyone know what this valuation means? They could literally DOUBLE profits every 3 months, for the next year, and it would still be obscenely over valued. 

      Apple is a 31 P/E, to put it into context. 

      The market is absolutely still drunk and high in some manners. When saying PLTR is more then 10X the near future innovation of Apple. Or more then 4X the innovation and growth of Tesla..... 

      I peg September..... Sobriety September.... Could come sooner but I can't picture how the insanity last's much past that. Cracks are opening up all over the place. BTC is going up because $ is going to BTC. More people should be asking and wondering why. 

      If indices touch the 200 DMA here in mid June to July, the draw is usually Sep-Oct if there's no recovery discernible recovery in August from Q2 earnings or other macro factors.

      Unfortunately, folks like Bessent know this so it would not surprise me to see QE if we anticipate poor earnings.

      The trade to me on that front is gold. Gold will rip if equities dip, gold will rip if QE persists. 

      PLTR will always be suspicious. I don't really get involved in shorting this or Tesla-- feel it can draw cult like behavior. Easy to get steamrolled. Do have a long-standing vertical spread against them in Oct 17 and Feb 20.


      BTC is m2 related.

      Hard assets seems, to me, an obvious "safe-bet" in things. 

      Gold, real estate, etc.. 

      9/10 path's lead to an inflation in these. 

      I like real estate BEST in asset class because I can induce controls in it, and it's monetization. 

      Gold, I can't influence the market value of it. BTC, same thing. These are savings accounts in my opinion, inflation adjusted savings accounts. 

      Real Estate, I get that inflation adjustment AND I get influence, control, unlike any of the others. As well as a "dividend" I can't get in the others. 

      For me, Real Estate is still king in the asset class. 

      1Reply
  • Marcus Auerbach
    Investor · Milwaukee - Mequon, WI · Member since 2010 · 5k+ posts · 7k+ votes
    1y

    P/E ratios like this are totally irrational, but what Nvidia is doing is also mind-boggling. 

    I just looked into the new NVLink which clusters a bunch of these liquid cooled Blackwell chips together in a rack that has more data traffic capacity than - hold your breath - the. entire. internet. today at peak traffic. What?!? 

    And then we have project Starbase in Abilene, TX which will house thousands of these things on 4 million square feet and consume electricity in the gigawatt range, which is enough for 750,000 homes. To be online next year 2026.

    0Reply
    • James Hamling
      Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes
      1y
      Quote from @Marcus Auerbach:

      P/E ratios like this are totally irrational, but what Nvidia is doing is also mind-boggling. 

      I just looked into the new NVLink which clusters a bunch of these liquid cooled Blackwell chips together in a rack that has more data traffic capacity than - hold your breath - the. entire. internet. today at peak traffic. What?!? 

      And then we have project Starbase in Abilene, TX which will house thousands of these things on 4 million square feet and consume electricity in the gigawatt range, which is enough for 750,000 homes. To be online next year 2026.

      On NVDA I'm a BULL.... a big BULL, dare I even say a super-BULL. 

      I think NVDA is "cheap" where it's trading now. Because of that major factor that they are innovating at a level rarely seen in human history. 

      The innovations there coming up with are not just increases of say 20% efficiency or something like that. There innovations are paradigm changing. Magnitudes of change. 

      NVDA is powering not just an entire industry, but industries as in plural. 

      PLTR.... is the poster child of irrational valuation. For life of me I can not figure out why W.S. allows it to remain at such levels. 

      TSLA is a crazy high P/E but I do get that, it's the Elon factor. Elon has a talent for bring things into being that were inconceivable. And the 100+ P/E is based on this. On cyber-taxi happening, and how that would change things. As well as the charging network. People forget Tesla is not just an auto manufacturer. 

      It's weird how we have things like NVDA under valued a touch, TSLA kind-of fairly valued on future potentials, and PLTR wildly over valued. 

      They say the market always get's it right, eventually. Well, I wonder when that eventually will come to pass. 

      0Reply
    • V.G JasonPro Member
      Investor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
      1y
      Quote from @James Hamling:
      Quote from @Marcus Auerbach:

      P/E ratios like this are totally irrational, but what Nvidia is doing is also mind-boggling. 

      I just looked into the new NVLink which clusters a bunch of these liquid cooled Blackwell chips together in a rack that has more data traffic capacity than - hold your breath - the. entire. internet. today at peak traffic. What?!? 

      And then we have project Starbase in Abilene, TX which will house thousands of these things on 4 million square feet and consume electricity in the gigawatt range, which is enough for 750,000 homes. To be online next year 2026.

      On NVDA I'm a BULL.... a big BULL, dare I even say a super-BULL. 

      I think NVDA is "cheap" where it's trading now. Because of that major factor that they are innovating at a level rarely seen in human history. 

      The innovations there coming up with are not just increases of say 20% efficiency or something like that. There innovations are paradigm changing. Magnitudes of change. 

      NVDA is powering not just an entire industry, but industries as in plural. 

      PLTR.... is the poster child of irrational valuation. For life of me I can not figure out why W.S. allows it to remain at such levels. 

      TSLA is a crazy high P/E but I do get that, it's the Elon factor. Elon has a talent for bring things into being that were inconceivable. And the 100+ P/E is based on this. On cyber-taxi happening, and how that would change things. As well as the charging network. People forget Tesla is not just an auto manufacturer. 

      It's weird how we have things like NVDA under valued a touch, TSLA kind-of fairly valued on future potentials, and PLTR wildly over valued. 

      They say the market always get's it right, eventually. Well, I wonder when that eventually will come to pass. 


       Yes on NVIDIA. If you're investing, this price is solid. Maybe layer in now and watch earnings and add to it if it moves any. If you're trading, too much happening but some exposure via ETFs is helpful and options.

      People were talking about the US being an EM Market on bonds though, see Japan. Can't tell me this US bond retaliation last month is not going to have reverberating impacts globally; and no saying how it actually touches down beyond being long real hard assets to me is the best bet. 

      0Reply
    • V.G JasonPro Member
      Investor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
      1y
      Quote from @Marcus Auerbach:

      P/E ratios like this are totally irrational, but what Nvidia is doing is also mind-boggling. 

      I just looked into the new NVLink which clusters a bunch of these liquid cooled Blackwell chips together in a rack that has more data traffic capacity than - hold your breath - the. entire. internet. today at peak traffic. What?!? 

      And then we have project Starbase in Abilene, TX which will house thousands of these things on 4 million square feet and consume electricity in the gigawatt range, which is enough for 750,000 homes. To be online next year 2026.

       Watch for Google too.

      There seems to be a divided boat; it's a sinking ship or it's a rocket ship. 

      I am in the boat of a latter and full disclosure it's my largest single equity position I have gathered in 2025. Most of the position bought early April, and in these past 2 weeks when the Apple announcement happened + last 4 days to help rally it over the 200 DMA. To me, I am thinking this will be fairly valued closer to the $280-$300 mark it's going to encroach on Apple, Amazon, OpenAI, IONQ, Meta, Uber among others. 

      I am curious on acquisition sights, I would think RDDT would be a natural synergy but doubt that would put it over the top. Perhaps something more communication based-- something that can rival WhatsApp. 

      Trading at 17-18 P/E when it was $160-- something was off. This isn't just search & ads; it's AI, hardware tech, quantum computing(very early), software enhancement, etc.. Problem is CEO is kind of boring, it'll be the Tim Duncan of stocks. I like that a lot though.

      2Reply
    • Alan F.
      Flipper/Rehabber · CA · Member since 2023 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
      1y
      Quote from @V.G Jason:
      Quote from @Marcus Auerbach:

      P/E ratios like this are totally irrational, but what Nvidia is doing is also mind-boggling. 

      I just looked into the new NVLink which clusters a bunch of these liquid cooled Blackwell chips together in a rack that has more data traffic capacity than - hold your breath - the. entire. internet. today at peak traffic. What?!? 

      And then we have project Starbase in Abilene, TX which will house thousands of these things on 4 million square feet and consume electricity in the gigawatt range, which is enough for 750,000 homes. To be online next year 2026.

       Watch for Google too.

      There seems to be a divided boat; it's a sinking ship or it's a rocket ship. 

      I am in the boat of a latter and full disclosure it's my largest single equity position I have gathered in 2025. Most of the position bought early April, and in these past 2 weeks when the Apple announcement happened + last 4 days to help rally it over the 200 DMA. To me, I am thinking this will be fairly valued closer to the $280-$300 mark it's going to encroach on Apple, Amazon, OpenAI, IONQ, Meta, Uber among others. 

      I am curious on acquisition sights, I would think RDDT would be a natural synergy but doubt that would put it over the top. Perhaps something more communication based-- something that can rival WhatsApp. 

      Trading at 17-18 P/E when it was $160-- something was off. This isn't just search & ads; it's AI, hardware tech, quantum computing(very early), software enhancement, etc.. Problem is CEO is kind of boring, it'll be the Tim Duncan of stocks. I like that a lot though.


       Alphabet....quantum computing & biotech.    ;)

      1Reply
  • V.G JasonPro Member
    Investor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    1y

    Bitcoin still going strong. As long as M2 is up and to the right, it'll fight any resistance like we saw last week when Trump/Elon briefly hit the markets. It's a great global pulse.

    With that said, consumer staples & discretionary is in healthy ratio to remain neutral. But asset manager & s&p ratio is the widest it's ever been.

    Just tells me their plays are not a lag and unfortunately could materially be a drag. That's a key indicator for the s&p.

    I'm still here expecting a possible swan in all of this uncertainty. I'm net neutral everything now. 

    Think buying opps say where ive said it BTC, gold, real estate properly priced and levered. I'm not veering from that I know bonds are getting attention and rightfully so but rather allocate to those 3.

    2Reply
  • V.G JasonPro Member
    Investor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    1y

    https://www.axios.com/2025/06/16/ice-cash-crisis-immigration...

    I don't know why @Scott Trench

    but I'm barred from posting in the thread regarding RE prices/administration policies. This is a point I made about funding being the limitation on deportation.

    All the policies have unknown outputs. But strangely the more unknown is the materialization of the inputs. 

    The BTC market is in consolidation, much like the RE market. And honestly equities to a degree but need more time to see that.

    I anticipate we nominate a dovish Fed-- I know wild take-- that'll widen the 2/10 year. Think net output the 10 year goes down. Just short term borrowing/liquid markets absorb all that "cash on the sidelines".  

    Meaning RE still lagging, and the underwater impact is more detrimental than rates at this point. 

    Would be good idea to do a mid year view on forwards. I'm thinking liquid markets rally, term markets will slowly decay. question is do opaque markets provide a tumble, rise, or are they the swan?

    Think any drawdowns on BTC, still a proper long term buy.

    0Reply
    • Scott TrenchPro Member
      Rental Property Investor · Denver, CO · Member since 2014 · 2k+ posts · 6k+ votes
      1y
      Quote from @V.G Jason:

      https://www.axios.com/2025/06/16/ice-cash-crisis-immigration...

      I don't know why @Scott Trench

      but I'm barred from posting in the thread regarding RE prices/administration policies. This is a point I made about funding being the limitation on deportation.

      All the policies have unknown outputs. But strangely the more unknown is the materialization of the inputs. 

      The BTC market is in consolidation, much like the RE market. And honestly equities to a degree but need more time to see that.

      I anticipate we nominate a dovish Fed-- I know wild take-- that'll widen the 2/10 year. Think net output the 10 year goes down. Just short term borrowing/liquid markets absorb all that "cash on the sidelines".  

      Meaning RE still lagging, and the underwater impact is more detrimental than rates at this point. 

      Would be good idea to do a mid year view on forwards. I'm thinking liquid markets rally, term markets will slowly decay. question is do opaque markets provide a tumble, rise, or are they the swan?

      Think any drawdowns on BTC, still a proper long term buy.

      I'm not sure what is going on there, @V.G Jason, but maybe @Rene Hosman can help us out? 

      Podcast Guest on Show #223
      BiggerPockets
      1Reply
  • Sam Spoerl
    Wholesaler · Littleton · Member since 2021 · 41 posts · 11 votes
    1y

    I'm defiantly not an expert but I hold some coin. But TBH I just had a little extra money and thought if one day it makes me enough that would be great but don't really keep track of it but I'll know if I should sell for sure.  I was listening to a podcast, I really can't recall the lady's name but she was going after the company Pornhub. What she figured out was that if she took out Pornhubs relationships with Visa, MasterCard and other credit card companies, that's how she could take down Pornhub. So why bring this up? Well what currency do you think Pornhub has moved to. Crypto. At least that's what was stated in the podcast can't verify that is like fully true or isn't but I would defiantly start looking into ports relationship with crypto. So I think its a solid strategy but to @James Wise point/ the exact advise Warren Buffet will tell you. Invest in what you understand. 

    0Reply
  • V.G JasonPro Member
    Investor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    1y

    BTC in it's little consolidation phase. Dipped under $100k briefly but heavily bid back up.


    Tariff new news set to come up by July 9. Think we stay in consolidation for a little longer as BTC is on a structural trade. Once that's done, it's up and straight up not just to the right.

    How im preparing for it, net quite long/short 

    Long ibit leaps

    Long underlying keys

    Small short RIOT

    Small short BTC futs

    Selling puts and buying leaps on any heavily red days. Adding RIOT shorts on heavily green days. If it's a small negligible price change daily, let it ride.

    This trade was 65/35 when we first set up by mid March, with most of the position set by mid Jan. Now operating closer to 80-85/15-20.

    0Reply
  • V.G JasonPro Member
    Investor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    1y

    On the other side, small cap should be getting primed. And energy, financials need to catch up.

    Getting longer ETF wise

    avuv, dfat, vgt, xle, xlf progressively 

    buying iwm leaps on red days

    stock and options same ole plays

    0Reply
  • V.G JasonPro Member
    Investor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    1y

    If q2 earnings post good in most sectors, namely tech, then P/E expansion is warranted and justified.

    Think that's the thing to watch and Ethereum as a base for stablecoin adoption. 

    0Reply
    • James Hamling
      Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes
      1y
      Quote from @V.G Jason:

      If q2 earnings post good in most sectors, namely tech, then P/E expansion is warranted and justified.

      Think that's the thing to watch and Ethereum as a base for stablecoin adoption. 

       Selling NVDA put's was an easy one, but wow, even surprised myself. 

      I sold between the 145 and 170 strikes. They just gave $ away....... 

      1Reply
    • V.G JasonPro Member
      Investor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
      1y
      Quote from @James Hamling:
      Quote from @V.G Jason:

      If q2 earnings post good in most sectors, namely tech, then P/E expansion is warranted and justified.

      Think that's the thing to watch and Ethereum as a base for stablecoin adoption. 

       Selling NVDA put's was an easy one, but wow, even surprised myself. 

      I sold between the 145 and 170 strikes. They just gave $ away....... 

      Sold $80 strikes end of April for June  & September 2025 expiry, and bought $95 LEAPs that same day that expire May 2026 & Jan 2027. Still own plenty of the underlying.  At this point just going to sell covered calls slightly OTM leading up to earnings and maybe some ITM to trim.

      Taking return and moving to more indices.  Have MRVL, a s&p correlated, too that's got some size on that needs to get trimmed.

      Ethereum is the runner here and energy needs to get on the radar but likely a little ways away. Small caps too but I've been saying for that too long, eventually I'll be right. Google also focusing on, but needs more sexiness.

      98% of other institutional and FO money stayed bearish and are incredibly dubious of this rally. All technicals and most fundamentals support this, and so we are the 2% that went from quite short to neutral now net long.

      Funny enough retail was spot on, too. I see some consolidation, profit taking after earning but nothing terrible that's in the horizon. I can never predict anything, so I always prepare. Still always ready for that black swan like Sam Altman being a fraud.

      0Reply
    • Account Closed
      Member since 2025 · 72 posts · 45 votes
      1y
      Quote from @V.G Jason:

      If q2 earnings post good in most sectors, namely tech, then P/E expansion is warranted and justified.

      Think that's the thing to watch and Ethereum as a base for stablecoin adoption. 


      Refreshing to see people knowledgeable in crypto on here. People love to look the other way when you show them that crypto and bitcoin has outperformed every other asset in the world in the past decade and will continue to do so. Real estate is massive for tax advantages and obviously is a great investing strategy (which is why we are all on here). Very rare to find others into crypto ill send you a request if you ever want to connect further and chat sometime! 

      0Reply
  • Nicholas L.Pro Member
    Flipper/Rehabber · Pittsburgh · Member since 2018 · 6k+ posts · 5k+ votes
    1y

    @V.G Jason

    thoughts on more vanilla options - index funds?  I was DCOing into VTI and VNQ from 2020-2024.  have held off due to current... volatility?

    0Reply
    • V.G JasonPro Member
      Investor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
      1y
      Quote from @Nicholas L.:

      @V.G Jason

      thoughts on more vanilla options - index funds?  I was DCOing into VTI and VNQ from 2020-2024.  have held off due to current... volatility?


       Don't understand the question. What are my thoughts on those or how to approach this?

      0Reply
    • James Hamling
      Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes
      1y
      Quote from @Nicholas L.:

      @V.G Jason

      thoughts on more vanilla options - index funds?  I was DCOing into VTI and VNQ from 2020-2024.  have held off due to current... volatility?


      In general, now is not the time nor market for the novice to play in any options OTHER THAN selling covered calls, seriously. 

      It's a wildly volatile time in the market, in exceptionally dangerous ways for the novice. What I mean by that is the potential x-factors, they bring potential for BIG swings. So the risks are not just loosing some $, the risks very much-so are of blowing up ones account, reaping huge losses depending on how one is playing options. 

      Selling covered calls is the only safe-ish way to dip toes in that pond. And even then you can blow up an account if your using leverage on your held positions. 

      There is 2 very real major factors out there, each facilitating BIG potential moves. A melt-up, and a roll-over. Nobody truly knows exactly which will appear, all the ingredients are present for either. Political winds can shift on a dime and they have major influence on which of these come to pass. 

      My opinion for the novice is an echo of Warren Buffets; to acquire shares in a good ETF such as JEPQ, VOO, SCHD, or even QQQ. To amplify returns sell covered calls 3'ish months out but always do them at a profitable strike price, if the market dips and you can't then you just hold-tight and wait. 

      Time IN beats timing the market when have any reasonable length of time to invest. 

      What V.G and I are talking about, it's Advanced too Expert level stuff. It requires excellent skills in analysis of the companies themselves, the economics domestically and globally, as well as very strong comprehension of the trends and historical actions of equity funds because there is seasons to things and times of year where selling is more prevalent and buying is more prevalent.  

      My other modifications from The Oracle of Omaha's advice is diversification via "O" and "GLD". Via holding just the 3 of JEPQ, O and GLD a person achieves a good level of diversification. You don't have to hold 10, 15, 20+ holdings to get good diversification, just the right few. 

      For those who want some "next level" action, ready to be a bit active and want to know how the big-$ does it; I say study up on selling Put's, to utilize in acquiring leaps. It's a wall street version of infinite returns. But it DOES take much study to not just know how to do it, but how to add in protections when doing it for capping loss potentials, when to do it, on what companies etc etc.. 

      And like all things investing, YES it DOES take $ to do it. Minimum $25k in my opinion. $25k that could go to $0 and it won't take food off the table. That's $25k LIQUID not margin. 

      Margin should be used exclusively for emergencies, not regular activities. 

      That's where Real Estate crushes wall street investing, it's 1,000X safer to use leveraged funds in real estate than on wall street. 

      1Reply
  • Nicholas L.Pro Member
    Flipper/Rehabber · Pittsburgh · Member since 2018 · 6k+ posts · 5k+ votes
    1y

    @James Hamling

    yep i'm mostly sticking to making seller finance offers on real estate and getting rejected.  am really enjoying your and @V.G Jason's perspectives.

    1Reply
    • V.G JasonPro Member
      Investor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
      1y
      Quote from @Nicholas L.:

      @James Hamling

      yep i'm mostly sticking to making seller finance offers on real estate and getting rejected.  am really enjoying your and @V.G Jason's perspectives.

      If you have the capital to buy 100 shares of SPY, QQQ, IWM or of the sort perhaps all 3.

      Then the simple strategy is to sell a cash secured 60-90 day put at 25-30 delta on one, layer buys(dca) in another(8% monthly so 1 yr) and buy 60% lump sum of the other and the remaining 10-15% monthly(3-4 months). Id recommend QQQ for the put, IWM for dca and SPY for the lump sum

      This is assuming you already have a base portfolio, so yes James is right this is a bit more than regular stuff but this isn't super advanced. Won't get into that on here.

      If you're asking truly super vanilla for someone that looks at their equity portfolio just annually. Then I'd go with a simple 2-3 ETF portfolio

      VTI-75%
      VXUS-20%
      GLD-5%

      And let it be. 

      1Reply
    • James Hamling
      Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes
      1y
      Quote from @Nicholas L.:

      @James Hamling

      yep i'm mostly sticking to making seller finance offers on real estate and getting rejected.  am really enjoying your and @V.G Jason's perspectives.


      Smart move.... 

      How are you structuring your offers? Curious why there getting rejected. 

      I get best response with my A-B-C offers. 

      I recap the situation, my understanding of their true desire, and I then present; 

      - Cash offer as-is where is, not lifting a single finger "done-deal" quick close done n over. 

      - Max$ offer, how we get there, the time, the JV of it all, the reno $, marketing $ yada-yada, and the max we can get if all goes perfectly to plan AND the downside reality of what it could be net at end of day in a conservative pessimistic real-world potential.

      - And the terms offer. 

      8:10 say "ah, ok, so, what is this terms thing again, I don't really understand". And when you get that response 8:10 accept it after working through all the details and explanation of it all as long as your really good at detailing and explaining it all and not doing anything shady. 

      The key to the explaining is being detailed and simplified at same time. Making it easily comprehensible for them. Putting it in terms or concepts they already well understand. I often compare it with there banking situation. 

      That I can go to the bank, get the $, and the bank pays them. To do that, the bank wants to make $ so I am paying the bank some profits every month called interest. OR, in this, we can cut-out the middle person and it's just them and me directly, and I instead pay them that profit/interest.      Because ironically if they bank at the same bank, the $ the bank is giving me is in a way, the same $ I would be giving them. So instead of both of us paying the bank, we can work together directly and have no middle person fee's. 

      People tend to get that very readily. And ask about the details of what-if scenarios. I remind them of the paperwork they signed when they bought the home, and say we do the exact same. So all the same contracts the bank had with them before for the what-if's, we will have the exact same, contracts covering every detail and what-if. 

      Then say would you like to see them? If they say yes, it's a done-deal. You pull them out, and walk through the example paperwork. And while I do that, I am literally filling in our details. And at end, were ready to sign. 

      If they hesitate to sign, I ask if it's just because they want to get it double checked to make sure it's all legit. They say yes and I say great, right here you have ____ days to get attorney review. If for any reason you want out, that's it, your out, that simple. 

      If they still want time to "think it over" I say sure but keep in mind, I will do the same thinking it over and if anything changes in that time, the offer will change too. But feel free, take whatever time you want, I just want to be upfront this is what I can do today with all that I know today, we have no idea what tomorrow, next week or month will bring so who knows, right, we will see as things come. 

      It's honest, right. 

      I don't push at all, 0 push. I give it to em real. If you want as-is cash there is 1 price, if work with me on terms it has added value and mitigates some of my risks. If you want to JV for max retail, it's gonna cost time & $, and there is uncertainty of what market will be in the future.

      I find people really connect with the open honesty and no BS. Even when it's less then ideal realities, they appreciate the integrity. And it earns respect. 

      2Reply
    • James Hamling
      Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes
      1y
      Quote from @V.G Jason:
      Quote from @Nicholas L.:

      @James Hamling

      yep i'm mostly sticking to making seller finance offers on real estate and getting rejected.  am really enjoying your and @V.G Jason's perspectives.

      If you have the capital to buy 100 shares of SPY, QQQ, IWM or of the sort perhaps all 3.

      Then the simple strategy is to sell a cash secured 60-90 day put at 25-30 delta on one, layer buys(dca) in another(8% monthly so 1 yr) and buy 60% lump sum of the other and the remaining 10-15% monthly(3-4 months). Id recommend QQQ for the put, IWM for dca and SPY for the lump sum

      This is assuming you already have a base portfolio, so yes James is right this is a bit more than regular stuff but this isn't super advanced. Won't get into that on here.

      If you're asking truly super vanilla for someone that looks at their equity portfolio just annually. Then I'd go with a simple 2-3 ETF portfolio

      VTI-75%
      VXUS-20%
      GLD-5%

      And let it be. 


       V.G you gotta keep in mind the vast majority of people will say "what's a Delta?". 

      I urge everyone DONT sell put's until you thoroughly understand what your doing. 

      I just had 1 guy today in trading group talking about selling NVDA 200 strike Put for sept..... Sure the premium is epic but so is the flippin risk. 200, Sept, madness. UNLESS your doing it NOT expecting 200 but instead premium harvesting focusing around E.R.. But he wasn't, he was legit thinking 200+ by Sept because he's got tunnel vision of the last days charts. 

      1Reply
    • V.G JasonPro Member
      Investor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
      1y
      Quote from @James Hamling:
      Quote from @V.G Jason:
      Quote from @Nicholas L.:

      @James Hamling

      yep i'm mostly sticking to making seller finance offers on real estate and getting rejected.  am really enjoying your and @V.G Jason's perspectives.

      If you have the capital to buy 100 shares of SPY, QQQ, IWM or of the sort perhaps all 3.

      Then the simple strategy is to sell a cash secured 60-90 day put at 25-30 delta on one, layer buys(dca) in another(8% monthly so 1 yr) and buy 60% lump sum of the other and the remaining 10-15% monthly(3-4 months). Id recommend QQQ for the put, IWM for dca and SPY for the lump sum

      This is assuming you already have a base portfolio, so yes James is right this is a bit more than regular stuff but this isn't super advanced. Won't get into that on here.

      If you're asking truly super vanilla for someone that looks at their equity portfolio just annually. Then I'd go with a simple 2-3 ETF portfolio

      VTI-75%
      VXUS-20%
      GLD-5%

      And let it be. 


       V.G you gotta keep in mind the vast majority of people will say "what's a Delta?". 

      I urge everyone DONT sell put's until you thoroughly understand what your doing. 

      I just had 1 guy today in trading group talking about selling NVDA 200 strike Put for sept..... Sure the premium is epic but so is the flippin risk. 200, Sept, madness. UNLESS your doing it NOT expecting 200 but instead premium harvesting focusing around E.R.. But he wasn't, he was legit thinking 200+ by Sept because he's got tunnel vision of the last days charts. 


       Very fair point. I should probably restrain.

      0Reply
    • Alan F.
      Flipper/Rehabber · CA · Member since 2023 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
      1y
      Quote from @V.G Jason:
      Quote from @James Hamling:
      Quote from @V.G Jason:
      Quote from @Nicholas L.:

      @James Hamling

      yep i'm mostly sticking to making seller finance offers on real estate and getting rejected.  am really enjoying your and @V.G Jason's perspectives.

      If you have the capital to buy 100 shares of SPY, QQQ, IWM or of the sort perhaps all 3.

      Then the simple strategy is to sell a cash secured 60-90 day put at 25-30 delta on one, layer buys(dca) in another(8% monthly so 1 yr) and buy 60% lump sum of the other and the remaining 10-15% monthly(3-4 months). Id recommend QQQ for the put, IWM for dca and SPY for the lump sum

      This is assuming you already have a base portfolio, so yes James is right this is a bit more than regular stuff but this isn't super advanced. Won't get into that on here.

      If you're asking truly super vanilla for someone that looks at their equity portfolio just annually. Then I'd go with a simple 2-3 ETF portfolio

      VTI-75%
      VXUS-20%
      GLD-5%

      And let it be. 


       V.G you gotta keep in mind the vast majority of people will say "what's a Delta?". 

      I urge everyone DONT sell put's until you thoroughly understand what your doing. 

      I just had 1 guy today in trading group talking about selling NVDA 200 strike Put for sept..... Sure the premium is epic but so is the flippin risk. 200, Sept, madness. UNLESS your doing it NOT expecting 200 but instead premium harvesting focusing around E.R.. But he wasn't, he was legit thinking 200+ by Sept because he's got tunnel vision of the last days charts. 


       Very fair point. I should probably restrain.


       No, don't restrain....Im paying attention.

      In fact BP should branch out to all forms of investing. A business forum would be great too.

      1Reply
    • V.G JasonPro Member
      Investor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
      1y
      Quote from @Alan F.:
      Quote from @V.G Jason:
      Quote from @James Hamling:
      Quote from @V.G Jason:
      Quote from @Nicholas L.:

      @James Hamling

      yep i'm mostly sticking to making seller finance offers on real estate and getting rejected.  am really enjoying your and @V.G Jason's perspectives.

      If you have the capital to buy 100 shares of SPY, QQQ, IWM or of the sort perhaps all 3.

      Then the simple strategy is to sell a cash secured 60-90 day put at 25-30 delta on one, layer buys(dca) in another(8% monthly so 1 yr) and buy 60% lump sum of the other and the remaining 10-15% monthly(3-4 months). Id recommend QQQ for the put, IWM for dca and SPY for the lump sum

      This is assuming you already have a base portfolio, so yes James is right this is a bit more than regular stuff but this isn't super advanced. Won't get into that on here.

      If you're asking truly super vanilla for someone that looks at their equity portfolio just annually. Then I'd go with a simple 2-3 ETF portfolio

      VTI-75%
      VXUS-20%
      GLD-5%

      And let it be. 


       V.G you gotta keep in mind the vast majority of people will say "what's a Delta?". 

      I urge everyone DONT sell put's until you thoroughly understand what your doing. 

      I just had 1 guy today in trading group talking about selling NVDA 200 strike Put for sept..... Sure the premium is epic but so is the flippin risk. 200, Sept, madness. UNLESS your doing it NOT expecting 200 but instead premium harvesting focusing around E.R.. But he wasn't, he was legit thinking 200+ by Sept because he's got tunnel vision of the last days charts. 


       Very fair point. I should probably restrain.


       No, don't restrain....Im paying attention.

      In fact BP should branch out to all forms of investing. A business forum would be great too.

      That would be a novel idea. Would BP consider that? @Scott Trench

      before we know it, BP has their own brokerage and crypto exchange. 

      Tons of info on business out there. Most I see regarding business, other investments, etc., is kind of like here. 95% of the people made it strictly off luck, 3-4% don't belong, 1-2% paired that luck with skill.

      This thread by @Steve K. is really going to mature in an interesting fashion.

      2Reply
    • Scott TrenchPro Member
      Rental Property Investor · Denver, CO · Member since 2014 · 2k+ posts · 6k+ votes
      1y
      Quote from @V.G Jason:
      Quote from @Alan F.:
      Quote from @V.G Jason:
      Quote from @James Hamling:
      Quote from @V.G Jason:
      Quote from @Nicholas L.:

      @James Hamling

      yep i'm mostly sticking to making seller finance offers on real estate and getting rejected.  am really enjoying your and @V.G Jason's perspectives.

      If you have the capital to buy 100 shares of SPY, QQQ, IWM or of the sort perhaps all 3.

      Then the simple strategy is to sell a cash secured 60-90 day put at 25-30 delta on one, layer buys(dca) in another(8% monthly so 1 yr) and buy 60% lump sum of the other and the remaining 10-15% monthly(3-4 months). Id recommend QQQ for the put, IWM for dca and SPY for the lump sum

      This is assuming you already have a base portfolio, so yes James is right this is a bit more than regular stuff but this isn't super advanced. Won't get into that on here.

      If you're asking truly super vanilla for someone that looks at their equity portfolio just annually. Then I'd go with a simple 2-3 ETF portfolio

      VTI-75%
      VXUS-20%
      GLD-5%

      And let it be. 


       V.G you gotta keep in mind the vast majority of people will say "what's a Delta?". 

      I urge everyone DONT sell put's until you thoroughly understand what your doing. 

      I just had 1 guy today in trading group talking about selling NVDA 200 strike Put for sept..... Sure the premium is epic but so is the flippin risk. 200, Sept, madness. UNLESS your doing it NOT expecting 200 but instead premium harvesting focusing around E.R.. But he wasn't, he was legit thinking 200+ by Sept because he's got tunnel vision of the last days charts. 


       Very fair point. I should probably restrain.


       No, don't restrain....Im paying attention.

      In fact BP should branch out to all forms of investing. A business forum would be great too.

      That would be a novel idea. Would BP consider that? @Scott Trench

      before we know it, BP has their own brokerage and crypto exchange. 

      Tons of info on business out there. Most I see regarding business, other investments, etc., is kind of like here. 95% of the people made it strictly off luck, 3-4% don't belong, 1-2% paired that luck with skill.

      This thread by @Steve K. is really going to mature in an interesting fashion.

       This is a good question for BiggerPockets CEO @Ale Ayestarán - could be something for us to consider! 

      Podcast Guest on Show #223
      BiggerPockets
      0Reply
    • Alan F.
      Flipper/Rehabber · CA · Member since 2023 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
      1y
      Quote from @Scott Trench:
      Quote from @V.G Jason:
      Quote from @Alan F.:
      Quote from @V.G Jason:
      Quote from @James Hamling:
      Quote from @V.G Jason:
      Quote from @Nicholas L.:

      @James Hamling

      yep i'm mostly sticking to making seller finance offers on real estate and getting rejected.  am really enjoying your and @V.G Jason's perspectives.

      If you have the capital to buy 100 shares of SPY, QQQ, IWM or of the sort perhaps all 3.

      Then the simple strategy is to sell a cash secured 60-90 day put at 25-30 delta on one, layer buys(dca) in another(8% monthly so 1 yr) and buy 60% lump sum of the other and the remaining 10-15% monthly(3-4 months). Id recommend QQQ for the put, IWM for dca and SPY for the lump sum

      This is assuming you already have a base portfolio, so yes James is right this is a bit more than regular stuff but this isn't super advanced. Won't get into that on here.

      If you're asking truly super vanilla for someone that looks at their equity portfolio just annually. Then I'd go with a simple 2-3 ETF portfolio

      VTI-75%
      VXUS-20%
      GLD-5%

      And let it be. 


       V.G you gotta keep in mind the vast majority of people will say "what's a Delta?". 

      I urge everyone DONT sell put's until you thoroughly understand what your doing. 

      I just had 1 guy today in trading group talking about selling NVDA 200 strike Put for sept..... Sure the premium is epic but so is the flippin risk. 200, Sept, madness. UNLESS your doing it NOT expecting 200 but instead premium harvesting focusing around E.R.. But he wasn't, he was legit thinking 200+ by Sept because he's got tunnel vision of the last days charts. 


       Very fair point. I should probably restrain.


       No, don't restrain....Im paying attention.

      In fact BP should branch out to all forms of investing. A business forum would be great too.

      That would be a novel idea. Would BP consider that? @Scott Trench

      before we know it, BP has their own brokerage and crypto exchange. 

      Tons of info on business out there. Most I see regarding business, other investments, etc., is kind of like here. 95% of the people made it strictly off luck, 3-4% don't belong, 1-2% paired that luck with skill.

      This thread by @Steve K. is really going to mature in an interesting fashion.

       This is a good question for BiggerPockets CEO @Ale Ayestarán - could be something for us to consider! 


       Several years ago BP had some guest  (podcast or something) that spoke of buying underperforming mom n pop businesses. They had a number to call, so I called them as a broker friend of mine knew of a few.

      They never called back.....ghost

      0Reply
  • V.G JasonPro Member
    Investor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    1y

    I've had zero luck with seller finance, usually because my approach is awful.

    Still finding the best approach is cash, discount for all the variables unknown, and closing in 5-7 business days. Have not had the volume of success in 2025 that I did in 2023 or 2024, but I think that'll change here post Labor Day. I've really focused my RE pursuits from Labor Day to Spring Break. Summers for the kids, July 4th the inflection point.

    This year most assets will trend flat; H2 tips it to Crypto and Equities for upside and that means RE a buying opportunity. For RE to work you really have to do it right-- as in discount, favorable terms, immediate value adds, and attractive location. I am finding most of my (little) luck in the $500-700k pockets that people think their houses are still worth. It takes usually a de-list after 60-90 days, then another re-list for 40-60 days for them to finally realize they're overpriced.

    99% of the "investors" that have joined the board from 2022, and about 60% of them since 2018 are better off with just an equity(incl crypto ETF) portfolio. Unless they can buy something favorable, willing to bet just a very risk-on portfolio beats most ofc this isn't advice but just a view. Like 60% tech etf(VGT), 10% small cap value etf(DFAT), 10% gold(GLD), 10% Bitcoin(IBIT), 10% international(AVDE)

    You'll have higher drawdowns sure, but I just don't see RE in a dollar-depraved world suiting 97% of net investors due to opex/capex headwinds, barrier of entry capital wise.  

    Tilting towards stocks warranting high PE(vgt), dollar debased assets(bitcoin & gold & INTL equity) is the most suitable. Most of the folks here are keeping cash in their HYSA just waiting for that seller finance deal, and they'll look up and realize they're getting crushed. 

    Got to read & react.

    0Reply
  • V.G JasonPro Member
    Investor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    1y

    BTW Bitcoin hit ATHs; again impressive for what this is. Measure BTC not just per USD, but per gold metric too. That's really how you should measure it. Viewing it in the former; BTC will go up if the dollar goes down, but thesis needs to justify BTC over gold. 

    Dollar debasement has been the 16-year thesis and those original maximalists are turning out more & more right everyday.  Gold is an important consideration though, too.

    And FYI full tailwinds for ETH. There's not something with more of a fire lit under it than that-- again not advice, just a view. I have sized up in the very recent past(last 4 weeks). I don't know how much I'll hold versus trade, but definitely will hold some.



    0Reply
  • Account Closed
    Member since 2025 · 72 posts · 45 votes
    1y

    Ultimate engagement farming going on here and I'm here for all of it ahahah. It's crazy so many people have an opinion on it without actually knowing or doing research on crypto. It's outperformed everything in the last decade and will continue to do so. This isnt an opinion its a fact. On the other hand nothing beats real estate for the tax advantages. That's why people who get rich in other avenues and ventures end up parking there money in real estate for the long term. But to dismiss something you know nothing about and that statistically nothing comes close to beating the returns in the past decade shows the intelligence level of certain individuals. If you dont understand something dont invest in it. Simple. But do not talk about it like you are an expert. My two cents for some people on here. Anyways congrats! You have brought back engagement on this platform single handedly 🤣 idk the last time ive seen this many people commenting and engaging. Lets break that 200 mark. 

    0Reply
  • V.G JasonPro Member
    Investor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    1y

    Google and Ethereum told you so plays. More, possibly much more runway for these two. I will be taking a bit of profit on both here in 210s ish for Google and low 4000s for ethereum. More so on ethereum, and keeping most of my Google for term.

    AAPL getting on the radar. Will straddle this.

    Have a flat at Bitcoin, if we cross 125k by Labor Day or Labor I'll be doing some strong short ratio spreads on IBIT and being paid to take the risk as the input. Possibly the same goes for SPY & GLD during Sept and Oct. 

    0Reply
  • V.G JasonPro Member
    Investor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    1y

    Google and Ethereum told you so plays. More, possibly much more runway for these two. I will be taking a bit of profit on both here in 210s ish for Google and low 4000s for ethereum. More so on ethereum, and keeping most of my Google for term.

    AAPL getting on the radar. Will straddle this.

    Have a flat at Bitcoin, if we cross 125k by Labor Day or Labor I'll be doing some strong short ratio spreads on IBIT and being paid to take the risk as the input. Possibly the same goes for SPY & GLD during Sept and Oct. 

    0Reply
    • James Hamling
      Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes
      1y
      Quote from @V.G Jason:

      Google and Ethereum told you so plays. More, possibly much more runway for these two. I will be taking a bit of profit on both here in 210s ish for Google and low 4000s for ethereum. More so on ethereum, and keeping most of my Google for term.

      AAPL getting on the radar. Will straddle this.

      Have a flat at Bitcoin, if we cross 125k by Labor Day or Labor I'll be doing some strong short ratio spreads on IBIT and being paid to take the risk as the input. Possibly the same goes for SPY & GLD during Sept and Oct. 

      I was starting to wonder how long I was just going to sit on my trading accounts, and started considering doing some rotation of things........ And then TSLA's E.R. came out...... 

      And then Elon's/TSLA's direction and statement's....... 

      All I could say was "What-in-the-FLU#K!"...... 

      Egregious, that's the only word. 

      I am now strongly shorting it. 

      A business plan, to not even attempt to compete in the industry of which you are...... And instead "pivot" to an industry that has an existing goliath (rideshare) and declare your just gonna wave your hand and totally take it over...... 

      But oh, you also got into the drive-in biz because, ya know, that makes oh-so much sense.... It's like Delta Airlines announcing there getting into the luggage business. 

      And as share price tumbles, in an obvious start of a response to fact there loosing market share and sales of the actual business they have been, at break neck pace, the response is "Hey, it's gonna be a few really rough quarters. Peace-out.....". 

      Credit where credit is due, they changed an entire industry, they did. 

      But now it's like there just walking away saying "Peeft, were too big to fail.....". 

      What next, a dog food? 

      I shouldn't tempt fate, Elon reads this he just might do it. 

      I expect a MAJOR rotation out of TSLA over coming days. And with that it's got me rethinking my NVDA and other math because smart-$ doesn't run away blind, it rotates out, wisely, incrementally, and into safe harbors. 

      I expect this will create upward deviations other places. 

      I am pegging 35-45 day timeline this plays out. 

      Possibly shelving next REI buy for a month if all starts following thesis.

      1Reply
    • V.G JasonPro Member
      Investor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
      1y
      Quote from @James Hamling:
      Quote from @V.G Jason:

      Google and Ethereum told you so plays. More, possibly much more runway for these two. I will be taking a bit of profit on both here in 210s ish for Google and low 4000s for ethereum. More so on ethereum, and keeping most of my Google for term.

      AAPL getting on the radar. Will straddle this.

      Have a flat at Bitcoin, if we cross 125k by Labor Day or Labor I'll be doing some strong short ratio spreads on IBIT and being paid to take the risk as the input. Possibly the same goes for SPY & GLD during Sept and Oct. 

      I was starting to wonder how long I was just going to sit on my trading accounts, and started considering doing some rotation of things........ And then TSLA's E.R. came out...... 

      And then Elon's/TSLA's direction and statement's....... 

      All I could say was "What-in-the-FLU#K!"...... 

      Egregious, that's the only word. 

      I am now strongly shorting it. 

      A business plan, to not even attempt to compete in the industry of which you are...... And instead "pivot" to an industry that has an existing goliath (rideshare) and declare your just gonna wave your hand and totally take it over...... 

      But oh, you also got into the drive-in biz because, ya know, that makes oh-so much sense.... It's like Delta Airlines announcing there getting into the luggage business. 

      And as share price tumbles, in an obvious start of a response to fact there loosing market share and sales of the actual business they have been, at break neck pace, the response is "Hey, it's gonna be a few really rough quarters. Peace-out.....". 

      Credit where credit is due, they changed an entire industry, they did. 

      But now it's like there just walking away saying "Peeft, were too big to fail.....". 

      What next, a dog food? 

      I shouldn't tempt fate, Elon reads this he just might do it. 

      I expect a MAJOR rotation out of TSLA over coming days. And with that it's got me rethinking my NVDA and other math because smart-$ doesn't run away blind, it rotates out, wisely, incrementally, and into safe harbors. 

      I expect this will create upward deviations other places. 

      I am pegging 35-45 day timeline this plays out. 

      Possibly shelving next REI buy for a month if all starts following thesis.

      I hesitate with any directional play on Tesla.

      It trades off of the option market, not really fundamentals. I would really only express my views in call or put credit spreads with Tesla.

      I did buy some in the low 220s. Don't mind adding if it gets as low, or lower. But not a stock I buy or short without being paid to essentially.

      Right now institutions are very wary of the market, some specific shorts out there could leg up another rally if they're touched. Think any bearish activity remains starting from Labor Day ish and lasting until q3 earnings. 

      I am still running similar plays. And have my attention shifting to Apple, some energy, and some small cap spec plays. This will be my best equity portfolio return since 2020, if not better but still got a long ways to go.
      1Reply
    • James Hamling
      Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes
      1y
      Quote from @V.G Jason:
      Quote from @James Hamling:
      Quote from @V.G Jason:

      Google and Ethereum told you so plays. More, possibly much more runway for these two. I will be taking a bit of profit on both here in 210s ish for Google and low 4000s for ethereum. More so on ethereum, and keeping most of my Google for term.

      AAPL getting on the radar. Will straddle this.

      Have a flat at Bitcoin, if we cross 125k by Labor Day or Labor I'll be doing some strong short ratio spreads on IBIT and being paid to take the risk as the input. Possibly the same goes for SPY & GLD during Sept and Oct. 

      I was starting to wonder how long I was just going to sit on my trading accounts, and started considering doing some rotation of things........ And then TSLA's E.R. came out...... 

      And then Elon's/TSLA's direction and statement's....... 

      All I could say was "What-in-the-FLU#K!"...... 

      Egregious, that's the only word. 

      I am now strongly shorting it. 

      A business plan, to not even attempt to compete in the industry of which you are...... And instead "pivot" to an industry that has an existing goliath (rideshare) and declare your just gonna wave your hand and totally take it over...... 

      But oh, you also got into the drive-in biz because, ya know, that makes oh-so much sense.... It's like Delta Airlines announcing there getting into the luggage business. 

      And as share price tumbles, in an obvious start of a response to fact there loosing market share and sales of the actual business they have been, at break neck pace, the response is "Hey, it's gonna be a few really rough quarters. Peace-out.....". 

      Credit where credit is due, they changed an entire industry, they did. 

      But now it's like there just walking away saying "Peeft, were too big to fail.....". 

      What next, a dog food? 

      I shouldn't tempt fate, Elon reads this he just might do it. 

      I expect a MAJOR rotation out of TSLA over coming days. And with that it's got me rethinking my NVDA and other math because smart-$ doesn't run away blind, it rotates out, wisely, incrementally, and into safe harbors. 

      I expect this will create upward deviations other places. 

      I am pegging 35-45 day timeline this plays out. 

      Possibly shelving next REI buy for a month if all starts following thesis.

      I hesitate with any directional play on Tesla.

      It trades off of the option market, not really fundamentals. I would really only express my views in call or put credit spreads with Tesla.

      I did buy some in the low 220s. Don't mind adding if it gets as low, or lower. But not a stock I buy or short without being paid to essentially.

      Right now institutions are very wary of the market, some specific shorts out there could leg up another rally if they're touched. Think any bearish activity remains starting from Labor Day ish and lasting until q3 earnings. 

      I am still running similar plays. And have my attention shifting to Apple, some energy, and some small cap spec plays. This will be my best equity portfolio return since 2020, if not better but still got a long ways to go.

      Valuations have surged past euphoric, many leap frogging past insanity, residing in a place of unicorns and leprechauns. 

      In the short term, the market is a voting machine. In the long run, a weighing machine. 

      What was a euphoric run on hopes of future returns, is now up against a wall of having to justify that hopeium against the very real factual numbers coming back in actual earnings reports. Earnings reports showing a 400+ PE on a company growing earnings more on pace of 30% per annual, not 300%...... 

      I believe Aug/Sept will bring a reckoning. Or at least a beginning of one. 

      NVDA, who is "the" global leader in the manufacture of the physical components, the brain as it were, of ai, the "light bulb" of the age completely changing everything, globally, every industry, everything. NVDA has such a lead on anyone/everyone else globally it could be coined a monopoly, or at minimum knocking on the door of such. 

      NVDA's premium on it's valuation, is 1/4 that of Teslas...... Think about that. 

      Tesla, who is loosing, not gaining market share. Tesla who has declining revenue/profit production/conversion. And who's business plan is now a switcheroo, changing focus to a different service industry who has an existing dominant player AND is very VERY regulatory Leiden. Regulators whom are NOT Elon fans......

      Elons fundamental flaw has been human interaction and relations. Namely, when he has to exist and operate in social constructs not of his making. This has long been known of Elon, and recently played out in public eye. 

      Even vs arguably the most powerful human on earth, POTUS, Elon refuses to conform and cares not the cost of such non-conformity. Well, when it comes to ride-share service licensure, all those regulators, this will be different because the entire premise and terms of it is vastly different. 

      I know, the "this time it's different" argument..... But it is, this time, it's straight into Elons weakness and the messaging has appeared like arrogant ignorance. It's very possible there is a power-drunk aspect in play. 

      No licensure, no service. 

      And let's look at Ubers valuation metrics, the existing industry dominator. Uber is roughly 1/14th a valuation metric of Teslas on revenues/profits...... 

      Do I see Tesla being able to achieve 14X the revenues/profits of Uber???? No, actually it's a hell no.  

      The math isn't mathing........

      That is my "play", capitulation to the math not mathing, and adjusting the math to a more sane place. 

      For many of these companies an adjustment in share price to just wildly insane would mean a drop of 30%-50%. 

      There is a reason there is almost uniformity of the best investment minds alive all taking actions, not just words, of exactly this. Buffet is serious on this front to the tune of over $350 Billion, that's a LOT of serious. Dr. Burry, similar MAJOR allocation of funds on this front. The list is long, very long of all in this same vein. 

      Those signing up-forever...... Cathy W. and the like. What's unique about them? It's not there $. Fund managers who have a direct profit motive from signing up-forever, and no downside to being wrong........ They will blame the market, blame POTUS, blame Bessent, blame retail, blame blame blame and laugh the whole way to the bank. 

      A reckoning is not coming, were at the threshold of it. 

      The change of PDT is, in my eyes, the smoking gun to a knowing of it. An action to facilitate the last big pump, and transfer bags unto retail...... 

      What does Buffet say? The market is mechanism of exchange of wealth from the ignorant too the informed. 

      All would do well to throw off emotion and focus on the actions of the informed, and follow suite. 

      0Reply
    • James Hamling
      Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes
      1y
      Quote from @V.G Jason:
      Quote from @James Hamling:
      Quote from @V.G Jason:

      Google and Ethereum told you so plays. More, possibly much more runway for these two. I will be taking a bit of profit on both here in 210s ish for Google and low 4000s for ethereum. More so on ethereum, and keeping most of my Google for term.

      AAPL getting on the radar. Will straddle this.

      Have a flat at Bitcoin, if we cross 125k by Labor Day or Labor I'll be doing some strong short ratio spreads on IBIT and being paid to take the risk as the input. Possibly the same goes for SPY & GLD during Sept and Oct. 

      I was starting to wonder how long I was just going to sit on my trading accounts, and started considering doing some rotation of things........ And then TSLA's E.R. came out...... 

      And then Elon's/TSLA's direction and statement's....... 

      All I could say was "What-in-the-FLU#K!"...... 

      Egregious, that's the only word. 

      I am now strongly shorting it. 

      A business plan, to not even attempt to compete in the industry of which you are...... And instead "pivot" to an industry that has an existing goliath (rideshare) and declare your just gonna wave your hand and totally take it over...... 

      But oh, you also got into the drive-in biz because, ya know, that makes oh-so much sense.... It's like Delta Airlines announcing there getting into the luggage business. 

      And as share price tumbles, in an obvious start of a response to fact there loosing market share and sales of the actual business they have been, at break neck pace, the response is "Hey, it's gonna be a few really rough quarters. Peace-out.....". 

      Credit where credit is due, they changed an entire industry, they did. 

      But now it's like there just walking away saying "Peeft, were too big to fail.....". 

      What next, a dog food? 

      I shouldn't tempt fate, Elon reads this he just might do it. 

      I expect a MAJOR rotation out of TSLA over coming days. And with that it's got me rethinking my NVDA and other math because smart-$ doesn't run away blind, it rotates out, wisely, incrementally, and into safe harbors. 

      I expect this will create upward deviations other places. 

      I am pegging 35-45 day timeline this plays out. 

      Possibly shelving next REI buy for a month if all starts following thesis.

      I hesitate with any directional play on Tesla.

      It trades off of the option market, not really fundamentals. I would really only express my views in call or put credit spreads with Tesla.

      I did buy some in the low 220s. Don't mind adding if it gets as low, or lower. But not a stock I buy or short without being paid to essentially.

      Right now institutions are very wary of the market, some specific shorts out there could leg up another rally if they're touched. Think any bearish activity remains starting from Labor Day ish and lasting until q3 earnings. 

      I am still running similar plays. And have my attention shifting to Apple, some energy, and some small cap spec plays. This will be my best equity portfolio return since 2020, if not better but still got a long ways to go.

      Valuations have surged past euphoric, many leap frogging past insanity, residing in a place of unicorns and leprechauns. 

      In the short term, the market is a voting machine. In the long run, a weighing machine. 

      What was a euphoric run on hopes of future returns, is now up against a wall of having to justify that hopeium against the very real factual numbers coming back in actual earnings reports. Earnings reports showing a 400+ PE on a company growing earnings more on pace of 30% per annual, not 300%...... 

      I believe Aug/Sept will bring a reckoning. Or at least a beginning of one. 

      NVDA, who is "the" global leader in the manufacture of the physical components, the brain as it were, of ai, the "light bulb" of the age completely changing everything, globally, every industry, everything. NVDA has such a lead on anyone/everyone else globally it could be coined a monopoly, or at minimum knocking on the door of such. 

      NVDA's premium on it's valuation, is 1/4 that of Teslas...... Think about that. 

      Tesla, who is loosing, not gaining market share. Tesla who has declining revenue/profit production/conversion. And who's business plan is now a switcheroo, changing focus to a different service industry who has an existing dominant player AND is very VERY regulatory Leiden. Regulators whom are NOT Elon fans......

      Elons fundamental flaw has been human interaction and relations. Namely, when he has to exist and operate in social constructs not of his making. This has long been known of Elon, and recently played out in public eye. 

      Even vs arguably the most powerful human on earth, POTUS, Elon refuses to conform and cares not the cost of such non-conformity. Well, when it comes to ride-share service licensure, all those regulators, this will be different because the entire premise and terms of it is vastly different. 

      I know, the "this time it's different" argument..... But it is, this time, it's straight into Elons weakness and the messaging has appeared like arrogant ignorance. It's very possible there is a power-drunk aspect in play. 

      No licensure, no service. 

      And let's look at Ubers valuation metrics, the existing industry dominator. Uber is roughly 1/14th a valuation metric of Teslas on revenues/profits...... 

      Do I see Tesla being able to achieve 14X the revenues/profits of Uber???? No, actually it's a hell no.  

      The math isn't mathing........

      That is my "play", capitulation to the math not mathing, and adjusting the math to a more sane place. 

      For many of these companies an adjustment in share price to just wildly insane would mean a drop of 30%-50%. 

      There is a reason there is almost uniformity of the best investment minds alive all taking actions, not just words, of exactly this. Buffet is serious on this front to the tune of over $350 Billion, that's a LOT of serious. Dr. Burry, similar MAJOR allocation of funds on this front. The list is long, very long of all in this same vein. 

      Those signing up-forever...... Cathy W. and the like. What's unique about them? It's not there $. Fund managers who have a direct profit motive from signing up-forever, and no downside to being wrong........ They will blame the market, blame POTUS, blame Bessent, blame retail, blame blame blame and laugh the whole way to the bank. 

      A reckoning is not coming, were at the threshold of it. 

      The change of PDT is, in my eyes, the smoking gun to a knowing of it. An action to facilitate the last big pump, and transfer bags unto retail...... 

      What does Buffet say? The market is mechanism of exchange of wealth from the ignorant too the informed. 

      All would do well to throw off emotion and focus on the actions of the informed, and follow suite. 

      0Reply
  • V.G JasonPro Member
    Investor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    1y

    We had another early August strike, this time due jobs report last year due to Yen carry unwinding. I think for once we got a real glimpse of what it really is, and it's always been politically motivated to give the "right" numbers.

    Don't like idea of firing that gal, but also don't like politics at all. So it is what it is.

    With that said, Bullish IPO coming out in 9 days. They're intending to establish a strong stablecoin presence. Stablecoins will be quickly the persistent bid for tbills via the GENIUS act. 

    Therefore, Bitcoin will be the ultimate debasement tool against USD(indirectly via Tether and stablecoins). 

    If you cannot understand, last time we did debasement(during COVID) fed funds dropped harshly and the 10 year followed; incentivizing low mortgage rates coupled with a housing short created a massive bull run. And if you haven't looked around, affordability in almost everything and anything is in the Great Depression terms-- the difference is back then it was against Gold so they endured it. In today's world we don't realize it because it's backed by USD. 

    We need to stop looking at things in dollars, if we haven't already. Most won't realize this until well after the next fed rate cuts and a healthy amount after the next emergency fed rate cut if that happens.

    0Reply
  • V.G JasonPro Member
    Investor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    1y

    @Becca F.

    Your tech is up so much because it's getting obliterated "in dollars". It needs to expand to defeat the dollar devaluation.

    Is it a bubble, is it a safe haven? No way to really know just know that everything needs expansion if earnings justify it because then the dollar requires it.

    That's what leads to concentration. Now liquidity and leverage will determine the short term vol & trend, but fundamentals will determine the path.

    0Reply
  • V.G JasonPro Member
    Investor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    1y

    Like I said before, bitcoin, gold, and properly bought RE will be the best trades of this year. 

    Obviously, I do trade equities, but just from a sector standpoint those are the best trades. 

    The Dollar is down 9.55% and inflation is 2.7% this year.  That's the net USD portion.

    We're heading into fall with good ole uncertainty, q3 earnings will be the talk in a matter of 4 weeks, it would not surprise me to see Gold do a runaway victory. This Bitcoin YTD is as of today, so the $116k not $123k. I think that is indicative of some headwinds in the next 3-4 weeks in equities.

    BTC/Gold is still in the 35x ratio, with the peaks being 40x from Dec 2024.  Again, this is the proper way to measure it.

    Important things to continue to watch are silver & copper.

    1Reply
    • James Hamling
      Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes
      1y
      Quote from @V.G Jason:

      Like I said before, bitcoin, gold, and properly bought RE will be the best trades of this year. 

      Obviously, I do trade equities, but just from a sector standpoint those are the best trades. 

      The Dollar is down 9.55% and inflation is 2.7% this year.  That's the net USD portion.

      We're heading into fall with good ole uncertainty, q3 earnings will be the talk in a matter of 4 weeks, it would not surprise me to see Gold do a runaway victory. This Bitcoin YTD is as of today, so the $116k not $123k. I think that is indicative of some headwinds in the next 3-4 weeks in equities.

      BTC/Gold is still in the 35x ratio, with the peaks being 40x from Dec 2024.  Again, this is the proper way to measure it.

      Important things to continue to watch are silver & copper.


      I am currently mulling R.Dalio's advice to expand my gold positioning from 5% too 15%...... 

      I am still apprehensive on BTC, ever since I lost about $4.2m in BTC to the landfill....... For me, I will stick to gold, has never let me down. Especially with the push for resetting gold certificates valuation, that's all the confirmation right there of the stickiness for current valuations. 

      1Reply
  • James Hamling
    Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes
    1y

    @V.G Jason my superstitious side has me hesitant to mention this, I did flip to actionable bear on PLTR today. 

    For me the charts are crystal clear, it's rolling over. It's going very slowly though, very organized which is rather odd and kind of spooky feeling so not sure what all that means but it's very clearly rolling over. 

    And tech in general is feeling a whole lot like it's starting to roll-over too. I am hesitant on a sector wide declaration just yet but PLTR, oh she's rolling over. Next 3 days will be strong clarification of it all. There is some hands at play in it all, what it could be and lead to, only Nancy knows. 

    But I got battle ready in full defensive posture. 

    At the longest, I see a lot of ugly coming right around end of year. I see consumer holiday activity falling off a cliff, and a resulting market trigger from that. Consumer debt is just way way too high, incomes stretched and strained, I believe this next few months is where it comes to a head and realization on consumer activity side of things. 

    Now if J-Pow comes out with a shocker, that could trigger things. Like imagine J-Pow comes out with a 25pt rate HIKE! yes, rate INCREASE, citing inflation fighting. Because let's face it, it's not like J-Pow has to worry about his job, that ship sailed, he knows he's on way out so f-it, he could make a last point that the soon coming pump will be inflationary and will hit main streets pockets, hard, again. 

    J-Pow has more reason for an increase than lowering. If he lowers, he leaves on capitulation to political pressure, at least that's how it goes down in history. And if it does stoke inflation again, he also goes down for the guy who f'd the economy to capitulate.     But if he does a f-u mic-drop, the "what ya gonna do, fire me?" move, and turns out in long run he was right..... well that's a heck of an exit story, right. 

    Call me crazy, but I think J-pow is ballzy enough to do it. And man, would that be a hell of a market mover, right. 

    0Reply
  • V.G JasonPro Member
    Investor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    1y

    If we see poor XMas and Black Friday sales, think we see that in Q4 earnings but that will be more Jan/Feb 2026. 

    Given how allocators have to allocate, if we see any positive momentum coming out of October into November, a lot of the folks will go sell their losers and drive up the winners to finish better on the year. 

    If Powell raises rates that would be incredible to see, and definitely possible, but would need more than just his vote on it. That's where it would be derailed and would turn political for the others. 

    0Reply
  • V.G JasonPro Member
    Investor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    1y

    Again, if you followed my words here you've made out like a bandit. You're now el jefe. No more bandito.

    Gold strength, and even silver & copper like I said above, in this rather short-term has  made the BTC/Gold ratio widen and it makes me believe we'll see a rally in the short-mid term on BTC. BTC/Gold was 35 when last posted, now 31.5. Definitely can go down, but I see it tightening likely by year end. We saw some positive track today; $108 up to $112. Does it break $124-- the highs? Nobody knows. Playing it similarly; long IBIT leaps, long keys, short short dated puts, long long dated puts on IBIT.

     Google, if you read earlier posts, Ethereum, even Apple have nailed it. You'd be producing way above S&P, and way above any other asset class on these moves. Lots of IPOs coming out; Figure, Gemini, Klarna, etc. 

    Barring any swan event, like Altman being a fraud beyond Oklo, think the year ends out strong and like it is in the same order today; Gold, Bitcoin, Nasdaq, then S&P. 

    For what people thought was a joke of a thread-- 2/3 of the year in--- your dollar went far better on BTC than RE at the average glance. 

    2Reply
  • V.G JasonPro Member
    Investor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    1y

    I put this in a different thread  a little more than a month ago:

    The debt will be issued to stablecoins. Stablecoins hold a small % of reserves in the best/hardest asset--Bitcoin. Debt gets issued->bitcoin gets bought->bitcoin rallies->proof in network value creates more demand for bitcoin. You're not going to get long the asset that owns another asset as the underlying on the balance sheet, you're going to buy that actual asset itself if you can. And you can.

    Everyone who has dismissed this will get a reckoning.After the massive 900k+ job revision,  if we get bad numbers tomorrow and Thursday regarding CPI and PPI we could very well see 50bps cut in Sept; and off to the races for the hardest of hard assets, Bitcoin. 

    Secondly, Strategy missed the S&P inclusion this past Friday. It's the first time it got approved for it, so it likely won't get accepted until the 2nd or third time so December 2025 or March 2026. If Strategy, an outright and directional bitcoin buyer, is in the S&P then all these passive investors just got that exposure they weren't looking for. How bizarre. 

    1Reply
  • V.G JasonPro Member
    Investor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    11mo

    MSTR is facing a critical point where it may face some death cross signals(on the term view) in the next 5-60 days.It needs to move past $360 by Oct 10 to deviate and possibly see consolidation, but if it goes sub $300 by Oct 3-- it's a free fall without some fundamental changes. 

    This makes IBIT and other BTC-backed ETFs or stocks take some draw if it doesn't shoot up past.  Playing this with some put movement in Jan26 and Mar26. And call options in Oct25. These Treasury companies will be testing their VWAP levels-- curious to see how that goes.

    This would make the BTC Gold ratio touch April levels. In my opinion, a buying trend but more on the rally up not on the falling knife scenario. Will enter LEAPs during the falling knife phase for sure.

    1Reply
    • Alan F.
      Flipper/Rehabber · CA · Member since 2023 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
      11mo
      Quote from @V.G Jason:

      MSTR is facing a critical point where it may face some death cross signals(on the term view) in the next 5-60 days.It needs to move past $360 by Oct 10 to deviate and possibly see consolidation, but if it goes sub $300 by Oct 3-- it's a free fall without some fundamental changes. 

      This makes IBIT and other BTC-backed ETFs or stocks take some draw if it doesn't shoot up past.  Playing this with some put movement in Jan26 and Mar26. And call options in Oct25. These Treasury companies will be testing their VWAP levels-- curious to see how that goes.

      This would make the BTC Gold ratio touch April levels. In my opinion, a buying trend but more on the rally up not on the falling knife scenario. Will enter LEAPs during the falling knife phase for sure.


      Hmmm an ABR of 1.38 🤔

      0Reply
    • James Hamling
      Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes
      11mo
      Quote from @V.G Jason:

      MSTR is facing a critical point where it may face some death cross signals(on the term view) in the next 5-60 days.It needs to move past $360 by Oct 10 to deviate and possibly see consolidation, but if it goes sub $300 by Oct 3-- it's a free fall without some fundamental changes. 

      This makes IBIT and other BTC-backed ETFs or stocks take some draw if it doesn't shoot up past.  Playing this with some put movement in Jan26 and Mar26. And call options in Oct25. These Treasury companies will be testing their VWAP levels-- curious to see how that goes.

      This would make the BTC Gold ratio touch April levels. In my opinion, a buying trend but more on the rally up not on the falling knife scenario. Will enter LEAPs during the falling knife phase for sure.


      Call me crazy but I think MSTY just may be a decent way to play with MSTR. 

      I've read a lot of weird theories for BTC decline. I think it's as simple as the shine wearing off a bit, no big new whatever to drive emotions. 

      Currently we are at all time records for number of persons and amount of money being played in wall street, across the board. A good reason is we have had an entire generation great at hype, and chasing the hype of __ you-nameit___. Call it the GME/AMC generation.

      Most recent big hypes is various iterations of day trading and options trading. 

      And with PDT rule dropping to all but nothing, it's the new hype machine and will without doubt suck a lot of people in. 

      I believe it's truly this simple for BTC, the people are getting drawn to a new shinny thing. 

      When the stocks cool, and stop posting 40%+ gains in a quarter, which will eventually happen if not now very soon, people will get bored of it and chase the next shiny thing. 

      Crypto and BTC has a firm grip on being a shiny thing, as well as a life-boat when others are going poorly. 

      Any correction in stocks, we will see BTC surge setting ATH's yet again, and consolidating it's utility in that aspect all the more, floating MSTR right back up. 

      When it all happens and to what degree, who knows, too much volatility out there and too much wild-azz variables in it all. 

      0Reply
    • V.G JasonPro Member
      Investor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
      10mo
      Quote from @V.G Jason:

      MSTR is facing a critical point where it may face some death cross signals(on the term view) in the next 5-60 days.It needs to move past $360 by Oct 10 to deviate and possibly see consolidation, but if it goes sub $300 by Oct 3-- it's a free fall without some fundamental changes. 

      This makes IBIT and other BTC-backed ETFs or stocks take some draw if it doesn't shoot up past.  Playing this with some put movement in Jan26 and Mar26. And call options in Oct25. These Treasury companies will be testing their VWAP levels-- curious to see how that goes.

      This would make the BTC Gold ratio touch April levels. In my opinion, a buying trend but more on the rally up not on the falling knife scenario. Will enter LEAPs during the falling knife phase for sure.

      Well, ate that up nicely.

      Two weeks until the next FOMC with an 98% chance of a cut, and a 93% chance another cut in December bringing us to about 3.5%. The ABC trade has been put on, the real draw of the legs usually fall after that.

      The most hated saying in all of this is this time it's different. I think it is though. Digitization, people understanding how money works for better or worse, the fed always bailing out. I am thinking the directional view of ABC is right, but you need to keep certain forms of and holds of liquidity.

      Very interested to see earnings season. We're see a greater and greater discrepancy in the economy and market, and the Gold trade has produced 60% YTD. This isn't necessarily a good thing to be right on this trade, it means there's something to follow whether it's hyperinflation or recessionary causes. Technicals are showing Gold should be facing some exhaustion here though, which usually means a leg up in equities but I would think Bitcoin first. 

      Let's watch it. Real estate is about to be the most interesting to watch, let's see how the 10 year reacts to the fed rate cut. We're slightly under where we were pre-cut but that's counting into the Orange Man playing his Fri-Sun market mania.


      0Reply
    • V.G JasonPro Member
      Investor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
      10mo
      Quote from @V.G Jason:

      MSTR is facing a critical point where it may face some death cross signals(on the term view) in the next 5-60 days.It needs to move past $360 by Oct 10 to deviate and possibly see consolidation, but if it goes sub $300 by Oct 3-- it's a free fall without some fundamental changes. 

      This makes IBIT and other BTC-backed ETFs or stocks take some draw if it doesn't shoot up past.  Playing this with some put movement in Jan26 and Mar26. And call options in Oct25. These Treasury companies will be testing their VWAP levels-- curious to see how that goes.

      This would make the BTC Gold ratio touch April levels. In my opinion, a buying trend but more on the rally up not on the falling knife scenario. Will enter LEAPs during the falling knife phase for sure.

      And again nailed it on MSTR. Meta is shaping up for a real death cross here if it doesn't get out of it's own way. If stays below $675 for some duration, this could move some of the major indices with it and create some rotation.

      The conversation has become is capex worth the allocation of free cash flow for AI, and that remains to be seen. Just got to look at the incentives, every public CEO is pushed in the boardroom and on wall street every hour it seems to integrate AI and show results. Massive costs to do that and way to subsidize it is it to do layoffs; it's not AI replacing your job it's AI replacing the cost you bear. The conclusion isn't there on AI; I'll just say the chances humans will control AI is laughable. It's likely AI controls humans when it's all said and done.

      Every company, especially mega cap will need to quickly analyze cash flow and AI associated costs. My early sentiment on 2026 is a bearish year, but I think 2025 ends fine. We need to see how January plays out.

      Bitcoin finally touching $100k, let's see how it moves. Have some LEAP limit buys I'll place here as we get into Friday.

      0Reply
    • James Hamling
      Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes
      10mo
      Quote from @V.G Jason:
      Quote from @V.G Jason:

      MSTR is facing a critical point where it may face some death cross signals(on the term view) in the next 5-60 days.It needs to move past $360 by Oct 10 to deviate and possibly see consolidation, but if it goes sub $300 by Oct 3-- it's a free fall without some fundamental changes. 

      This makes IBIT and other BTC-backed ETFs or stocks take some draw if it doesn't shoot up past.  Playing this with some put movement in Jan26 and Mar26. And call options in Oct25. These Treasury companies will be testing their VWAP levels-- curious to see how that goes.

      This would make the BTC Gold ratio touch April levels. In my opinion, a buying trend but more on the rally up not on the falling knife scenario. Will enter LEAPs during the falling knife phase for sure.

      And again nailed it on MSTR. Meta is shaping up for a real death cross here if it doesn't get out of it's own way. If stays below $675 for some duration, this could move some of the major indices with it and create some rotation.

      The conversation has become is capex worth the allocation of free cash flow for AI, and that remains to be seen. Just got to look at the incentives, every public CEO is pushed in the boardroom and on wall street every hour it seems to integrate AI and show results. Massive costs to do that and way to subsidize it is it to do layoffs; it's not AI replacing your job it's AI replacing the cost you bear. The conclusion isn't there on AI; I'll just say the chances humans will control AI is laughable. It's likely AI controls humans when it's all said and done.

      Every company, especially mega cap will need to quickly analyze cash flow and AI associated costs. My early sentiment on 2026 is a bearish year, but I think 2025 ends fine. We need to see how January plays out.

      Bitcoin finally touching $100k, let's see how it moves. Have some LEAP limit buys I'll place here as we get into Friday.


      I think your missing the forest for the trees on BTC. In a way, 2006'ish reminiscent of when anyone dared ask "so, who's buying all these homes...... How are these people gonna be able to pay these no-doc, interest only, 3yr arm's?" it was as if you just said Voldamort's name as all cringed in horror and demanded to not speak the unspeakable. 

      One has to ask what is BTC price standing upon? 

      Is it utility? When the last time you got a gallon of gas, or a pizza with BTC? Never? Me either. 

      MSTR is buying and holding massive vaults of BTC, and rapidly running out of steam and runway on it. Because MSTR is for most part, buying and holding BTC via selling stock. Check out there balance sheet, it's not a profitable venture as of recent. 

      The first obvious should be the finite duration of being able to fund BTC purchase, and holds, via selling stock. Sure they can just do splits to shazam some more stock but as do that, price drops, as well as pizz's off those holding. And it does not bode well for retaining share value, which is needed to get, ya-know, buyers of the stock. 

      MSTR recent buys have an average around 114k per BTC. What they've already got is around average price of 75k per BTC. 

      So what happens when the stock-train runs out of track? 

      What happens when BTC touches on 75k? 

      What happens if the 2 coincide? 

      Or, or, or......

      Because here is the cold hard truth, the elephant in the room as it were, around BTC. 

      Todays price of BTC is NOT the "true value" of BTC. Todays BTC is an inflated BTC price, via the assorted institutional holdings and assorted gimmicks such as MSTR is running. 

      And they have a shelf life. 

      When they have to start liquidating, even trimming, which may be exactly what we are seeing now, today, BTC trimming, it can spur on a full out liquidation that brings price discovery of what BTC's REAL value is. 

      As in a value based of people, usership, which is utility. 

      Kind of reminds one of tulips..... 

      BTC truly has, as of today, only 2 utilities to populace at large; (a) as an alternative investment (b) dark money storage and movement. 

      Both of these have only novel applicability. 

      The "dream" that everyone would be getting paid in crypto, paying there rent in crypto, using digital wallets yada-yada, is not happening, has not happened, and the shine has been tarnishing with adoption not compounding or even really growing. 

      All the fantasic stories of how crypto would take over everything, seemingly peaked and is waining in interest. 

      Crypto has proven a viability, kind of how the early IBM's of the day proved computers were a viable tool. But just as IBM's taking up an entire floor of a building made it non-viable for the public at large, BTC is not viable as currency at large. 

      Will an "Apple" of crypto come along some day? Maybe. But the problem is global banking must control it, or they will kill it, it's just that simple. 

      Call me contrarian but I say BTC is in a speculation bubble, of speculation supporting speculation. It's utility is nothing, literally nothing. BTC only has value because we put currency into it and extract currency back from it, that's it. 

      BTC had generating quality but that is all but over now. 

      The coming weeks and months will tell the tale. My money is on it goes the way of the tulips. 

      2Reply
    • Chad U.
      Investor · Boca Raton, FL · Member since 2012 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
      10mo
      Quote from @James Hamling:
      Quote from @V.G Jason:
      Quote from @V.G Jason:

      MSTR is facing a critical point where it may face some death cross signals(on the term view) in the next 5-60 days.It needs to move past $360 by Oct 10 to deviate and possibly see consolidation, but if it goes sub $300 by Oct 3-- it's a free fall without some fundamental changes. 

      This makes IBIT and other BTC-backed ETFs or stocks take some draw if it doesn't shoot up past.  Playing this with some put movement in Jan26 and Mar26. And call options in Oct25. These Treasury companies will be testing their VWAP levels-- curious to see how that goes.

      This would make the BTC Gold ratio touch April levels. In my opinion, a buying trend but more on the rally up not on the falling knife scenario. Will enter LEAPs during the falling knife phase for sure.

      And again nailed it on MSTR. Meta is shaping up for a real death cross here if it doesn't get out of it's own way. If stays below $675 for some duration, this could move some of the major indices with it and create some rotation.

      The conversation has become is capex worth the allocation of free cash flow for AI, and that remains to be seen. Just got to look at the incentives, every public CEO is pushed in the boardroom and on wall street every hour it seems to integrate AI and show results. Massive costs to do that and way to subsidize it is it to do layoffs; it's not AI replacing your job it's AI replacing the cost you bear. The conclusion isn't there on AI; I'll just say the chances humans will control AI is laughable. It's likely AI controls humans when it's all said and done.

      Every company, especially mega cap will need to quickly analyze cash flow and AI associated costs. My early sentiment on 2026 is a bearish year, but I think 2025 ends fine. We need to see how January plays out.

      Bitcoin finally touching $100k, let's see how it moves. Have some LEAP limit buys I'll place here as we get into Friday.


      I think your missing the forest for the trees on BTC. In a way, 2006'ish reminiscent of when anyone dared ask "so, who's buying all these homes...... How are these people gonna be able to pay these no-doc, interest only, 3yr arm's?" it was as if you just said Voldamort's name as all cringed in horror and demanded to not speak the unspeakable. 

      One has to ask what is BTC price standing upon? 

      Is it utility? When the last time you got a gallon of gas, or a pizza with BTC? Never? Me either. 

      MSTR is buying and holding massive vaults of BTC, and rapidly running out of steam and runway on it. Because MSTR is for most part, buying and holding BTC via selling stock. Check out there balance sheet, it's not a profitable venture as of recent. 

      The first obvious should be the finite duration of being able to fund BTC purchase, and holds, via selling stock. Sure they can just do splits to shazam some more stock but as do that, price drops, as well as pizz's off those holding. And it does not bode well for retaining share value, which is needed to get, ya-know, buyers of the stock. 

      MSTR recent buys have an average around 114k per BTC. What they've already got is around average price of 75k per BTC. 

      So what happens when the stock-train runs out of track? 

      What happens when BTC touches on 75k? 

      What happens if the 2 coincide? 

      Or, or, or......

      Because here is the cold hard truth, the elephant in the room as it were, around BTC. 

      Todays price of BTC is NOT the "true value" of BTC. Todays BTC is an inflated BTC price, via the assorted institutional holdings and assorted gimmicks such as MSTR is running. 

      And they have a shelf life. 

      When they have to start liquidating, even trimming, which may be exactly what we are seeing now, today, BTC trimming, it can spur on a full out liquidation that brings price discovery of what BTC's REAL value is. 

      As in a value based of people, usership, which is utility. 

      Kind of reminds one of tulips..... 

      BTC truly has, as of today, only 2 utilities to populace at large; (a) as an alternative investment (b) dark money storage and movement. 

      Both of these have only novel applicability. 

      The "dream" that everyone would be getting paid in crypto, paying there rent in crypto, using digital wallets yada-yada, is not happening, has not happened, and the shine has been tarnishing with adoption not compounding or even really growing. 

      All the fantasic stories of how crypto would take over everything, seemingly peaked and is waining in interest. 

      Crypto has proven a viability, kind of how the early IBM's of the day proved computers were a viable tool. But just as IBM's taking up an entire floor of a building made it non-viable for the public at large, BTC is not viable as currency at large. 

      Will an "Apple" of crypto come along some day? Maybe. But the problem is global banking must control it, or they will kill it, it's just that simple. 

      Call me contrarian but I say BTC is in a speculation bubble, of speculation supporting speculation. It's utility is nothing, literally nothing. BTC only has value because we put currency into it and extract currency back from it, that's it. 

      BTC had generating quality but that is all but over now. 

      The coming weeks and months will tell the tale. My money is on it goes the way of the tulips. 

      I would say the majority of Bitcoin holders no longer treat it as a currency or an exchanger of value. It is viewed as a store of value, analogous to gold. Stable coins are the new blockchain currency system which will infiltrate the world in short order.  
      1Reply
    • V.G JasonPro Member
      Investor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
      10mo
      Quote from @Chad U.:
      Quote from @James Hamling:
      Quote from @V.G Jason:
      Quote from @V.G Jason:

      MSTR is facing a critical point where it may face some death cross signals(on the term view) in the next 5-60 days.It needs to move past $360 by Oct 10 to deviate and possibly see consolidation, but if it goes sub $300 by Oct 3-- it's a free fall without some fundamental changes. 

      This makes IBIT and other BTC-backed ETFs or stocks take some draw if it doesn't shoot up past.  Playing this with some put movement in Jan26 and Mar26. And call options in Oct25. These Treasury companies will be testing their VWAP levels-- curious to see how that goes.

      This would make the BTC Gold ratio touch April levels. In my opinion, a buying trend but more on the rally up not on the falling knife scenario. Will enter LEAPs during the falling knife phase for sure.

      And again nailed it on MSTR. Meta is shaping up for a real death cross here if it doesn't get out of it's own way. If stays below $675 for some duration, this could move some of the major indices with it and create some rotation.

      The conversation has become is capex worth the allocation of free cash flow for AI, and that remains to be seen. Just got to look at the incentives, every public CEO is pushed in the boardroom and on wall street every hour it seems to integrate AI and show results. Massive costs to do that and way to subsidize it is it to do layoffs; it's not AI replacing your job it's AI replacing the cost you bear. The conclusion isn't there on AI; I'll just say the chances humans will control AI is laughable. It's likely AI controls humans when it's all said and done.

      Every company, especially mega cap will need to quickly analyze cash flow and AI associated costs. My early sentiment on 2026 is a bearish year, but I think 2025 ends fine. We need to see how January plays out.

      Bitcoin finally touching $100k, let's see how it moves. Have some LEAP limit buys I'll place here as we get into Friday.


      I think your missing the forest for the trees on BTC. In a way, 2006'ish reminiscent of when anyone dared ask "so, who's buying all these homes...... How are these people gonna be able to pay these no-doc, interest only, 3yr arm's?" it was as if you just said Voldamort's name as all cringed in horror and demanded to not speak the unspeakable. 

      One has to ask what is BTC price standing upon? 

      Is it utility? When the last time you got a gallon of gas, or a pizza with BTC? Never? Me either. 

      MSTR is buying and holding massive vaults of BTC, and rapidly running out of steam and runway on it. Because MSTR is for most part, buying and holding BTC via selling stock. Check out there balance sheet, it's not a profitable venture as of recent. 

      The first obvious should be the finite duration of being able to fund BTC purchase, and holds, via selling stock. Sure they can just do splits to shazam some more stock but as do that, price drops, as well as pizz's off those holding. And it does not bode well for retaining share value, which is needed to get, ya-know, buyers of the stock. 

      MSTR recent buys have an average around 114k per BTC. What they've already got is around average price of 75k per BTC. 

      So what happens when the stock-train runs out of track? 

      What happens when BTC touches on 75k? 

      What happens if the 2 coincide? 

      Or, or, or......

      Because here is the cold hard truth, the elephant in the room as it were, around BTC. 

      Todays price of BTC is NOT the "true value" of BTC. Todays BTC is an inflated BTC price, via the assorted institutional holdings and assorted gimmicks such as MSTR is running. 

      And they have a shelf life. 

      When they have to start liquidating, even trimming, which may be exactly what we are seeing now, today, BTC trimming, it can spur on a full out liquidation that brings price discovery of what BTC's REAL value is. 

      As in a value based of people, usership, which is utility. 

      Kind of reminds one of tulips..... 

      BTC truly has, as of today, only 2 utilities to populace at large; (a) as an alternative investment (b) dark money storage and movement. 

      Both of these have only novel applicability. 

      The "dream" that everyone would be getting paid in crypto, paying there rent in crypto, using digital wallets yada-yada, is not happening, has not happened, and the shine has been tarnishing with adoption not compounding or even really growing. 

      All the fantasic stories of how crypto would take over everything, seemingly peaked and is waining in interest. 

      Crypto has proven a viability, kind of how the early IBM's of the day proved computers were a viable tool. But just as IBM's taking up an entire floor of a building made it non-viable for the public at large, BTC is not viable as currency at large. 

      Will an "Apple" of crypto come along some day? Maybe. But the problem is global banking must control it, or they will kill it, it's just that simple. 

      Call me contrarian but I say BTC is in a speculation bubble, of speculation supporting speculation. It's utility is nothing, literally nothing. BTC only has value because we put currency into it and extract currency back from it, that's it. 

      BTC had generating quality but that is all but over now. 

      The coming weeks and months will tell the tale. My money is on it goes the way of the tulips. 

      I would say the majority of Bitcoin holders no longer treat it as a currency or an exchanger of value. It is viewed as a store of value, analogous to gold. Stable coins are the new blockchain currency system which will infiltrate the world in short order.  

       Agreed. The value is the network, that hasn't changed.

      I never had a view of BTC used as an exchange, it's only really the people that were anti BTC that were pushing that narrative. It's been the same people with the narrative that BTC is an apoclyptical mechanism.


      Look around, 10 years ago BTC was $400. It's trending at $102k, and we're talking about it in a correction. The skies aren't grey, cities haven't collapsed, fires aren't blazing civilization. The use case wasn't a form of exchange when things are all awry. It's a store of value when manipulation of hard assets is out of your control.

      BTC is just a store of value agnostic to any single control, global liquidity and 365/24-7. It's kept this thesis for a long time.

      As for MSTR, I spoke up on that before. Even spoke about having the mnav trade on since earlier this year. How all these BTC Treasury companies raised BTC will be under scrutiny, but MSTR is just going to leave the STR(c/k/f) shareholders holding the bag if things go awry.

      1Reply
    • James Hamling
      Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes
      10mo
      Quote from @V.G Jason:
      Quote from @Chad U.:
      Quote from @James Hamling:
      Quote from @V.G Jason:
      Quote from @V.G Jason:

      MSTR is facing a critical point where it may face some death cross signals(on the term view) in the next 5-60 days.It needs to move past $360 by Oct 10 to deviate and possibly see consolidation, but if it goes sub $300 by Oct 3-- it's a free fall without some fundamental changes. 

      This makes IBIT and other BTC-backed ETFs or stocks take some draw if it doesn't shoot up past.  Playing this with some put movement in Jan26 and Mar26. And call options in Oct25. These Treasury companies will be testing their VWAP levels-- curious to see how that goes.

      This would make the BTC Gold ratio touch April levels. In my opinion, a buying trend but more on the rally up not on the falling knife scenario. Will enter LEAPs during the falling knife phase for sure.

      And again nailed it on MSTR. Meta is shaping up for a real death cross here if it doesn't get out of it's own way. If stays below $675 for some duration, this could move some of the major indices with it and create some rotation.

      The conversation has become is capex worth the allocation of free cash flow for AI, and that remains to be seen. Just got to look at the incentives, every public CEO is pushed in the boardroom and on wall street every hour it seems to integrate AI and show results. Massive costs to do that and way to subsidize it is it to do layoffs; it's not AI replacing your job it's AI replacing the cost you bear. The conclusion isn't there on AI; I'll just say the chances humans will control AI is laughable. It's likely AI controls humans when it's all said and done.

      Every company, especially mega cap will need to quickly analyze cash flow and AI associated costs. My early sentiment on 2026 is a bearish year, but I think 2025 ends fine. We need to see how January plays out.

      Bitcoin finally touching $100k, let's see how it moves. Have some LEAP limit buys I'll place here as we get into Friday.


      I think your missing the forest for the trees on BTC. In a way, 2006'ish reminiscent of when anyone dared ask "so, who's buying all these homes...... How are these people gonna be able to pay these no-doc, interest only, 3yr arm's?" it was as if you just said Voldamort's name as all cringed in horror and demanded to not speak the unspeakable. 

      One has to ask what is BTC price standing upon? 

      Is it utility? When the last time you got a gallon of gas, or a pizza with BTC? Never? Me either. 

      MSTR is buying and holding massive vaults of BTC, and rapidly running out of steam and runway on it. Because MSTR is for most part, buying and holding BTC via selling stock. Check out there balance sheet, it's not a profitable venture as of recent. 

      The first obvious should be the finite duration of being able to fund BTC purchase, and holds, via selling stock. Sure they can just do splits to shazam some more stock but as do that, price drops, as well as pizz's off those holding. And it does not bode well for retaining share value, which is needed to get, ya-know, buyers of the stock. 

      MSTR recent buys have an average around 114k per BTC. What they've already got is around average price of 75k per BTC. 

      So what happens when the stock-train runs out of track? 

      What happens when BTC touches on 75k? 

      What happens if the 2 coincide? 

      Or, or, or......

      Because here is the cold hard truth, the elephant in the room as it were, around BTC. 

      Todays price of BTC is NOT the "true value" of BTC. Todays BTC is an inflated BTC price, via the assorted institutional holdings and assorted gimmicks such as MSTR is running. 

      And they have a shelf life. 

      When they have to start liquidating, even trimming, which may be exactly what we are seeing now, today, BTC trimming, it can spur on a full out liquidation that brings price discovery of what BTC's REAL value is. 

      As in a value based of people, usership, which is utility. 

      Kind of reminds one of tulips..... 

      BTC truly has, as of today, only 2 utilities to populace at large; (a) as an alternative investment (b) dark money storage and movement. 

      Both of these have only novel applicability. 

      The "dream" that everyone would be getting paid in crypto, paying there rent in crypto, using digital wallets yada-yada, is not happening, has not happened, and the shine has been tarnishing with adoption not compounding or even really growing. 

      All the fantasic stories of how crypto would take over everything, seemingly peaked and is waining in interest. 

      Crypto has proven a viability, kind of how the early IBM's of the day proved computers were a viable tool. But just as IBM's taking up an entire floor of a building made it non-viable for the public at large, BTC is not viable as currency at large. 

      Will an "Apple" of crypto come along some day? Maybe. But the problem is global banking must control it, or they will kill it, it's just that simple. 

      Call me contrarian but I say BTC is in a speculation bubble, of speculation supporting speculation. It's utility is nothing, literally nothing. BTC only has value because we put currency into it and extract currency back from it, that's it. 

      BTC had generating quality but that is all but over now. 

      The coming weeks and months will tell the tale. My money is on it goes the way of the tulips. 

      I would say the majority of Bitcoin holders no longer treat it as a currency or an exchanger of value. It is viewed as a store of value, analogous to gold. Stable coins are the new blockchain currency system which will infiltrate the world in short order.  

       Agreed. The value is the network, that hasn't changed.

      I never had a view of BTC used as an exchange, it's only really the people that were anti BTC that were pushing that narrative. It's been the same people with the narrative that BTC is an apoclyptical mechanism.


      Look around, 10 years ago BTC was $400. It's trending at $102k, and we're talking about it in a correction. The skies aren't grey, cities haven't collapsed, fires aren't blazing civilization. The use case wasn't a form of exchange when things are all awry. It's a store of value when manipulation of hard assets is out of your control.

      BTC is just a store of value agnostic to any single control, global liquidity and 365/24-7. It's kept this thesis for a long time.

      As for MSTR, I spoke up on that before. Even spoke about having the mnav trade on since earlier this year. How all these BTC Treasury companies raised BTC will be under scrutiny, but MSTR is just going to leave the STR(c/k/f) shareholders holding the bag if things go awry.


      As I said, missing forest for the trees..... 

      You agree with the construct, the issues I pointed out (MSTR, BTC Treasury co.'s) yet you refuse the natural risks and results of such. 

      BTC is perceptualized as a store of wealth. Why? Seriously, why? 

      Many like to use a lot of words and yammering to tap-dance around this central facet, yet it always comes down to "Because look at how it's price/value has gone up". 

      Which yes, 100%, that's just factual BTC price has skyrocket up...... But correlation is NOT causation is it. 

      And that argument, stating BTC is a store of value, because of how it's gone up, is a declaration of it as speculative nature. 

      Gold, someone asks me why gold is a store of value, or worth what it is, i can give half a dozen detailed pointed factual reasons off top of my head and none of them are "because look at how it's price has gone up". 

      BTC is really just "duh dude, look at how it's price has gone up, ah-duh" which is a passive-aggressive presumption of perpetual value growth with 0 reasons of fact or support for that perpetual growth or just where it is now. 

      Young person need to study the Tulip rally, and later Tulip crash. It does hold a scary similarity. 

      Now keep in mind I was a BTC Miner, and investor. So any shrugging me off saying "oh, he's just anti BTC" is total nonsense. 

      And yes, argument for BTC validation WAS based on it's utility. That may have been before your time in BTC but I assure you, it started with all conversation around BTC's utility, because it was the anti-fiat, and there is a lot of good cause and argument for an anti-fiat, which is exactly why I got involved in BTC. 

      The narrative of BTC as a store of value, hence it's worth, is a dangerous 2 sided blade. 

      It requires retention of pricing within a certain range, to keep that title "store of value" hung round it's neck. The moment price collapse happens to some level, it shakes that narrative. Drops a bit more, it opens doubt in that narrative (this is where we are today). And get a drop of certain level below that, say 15-20%, it's very possible verging on probable this is where a "run-on-the-bank" can ignite.       And that is the other side of the blade, there is nothing that prevents or stems a run-on-the-bank. That happens, and FAITH in BTC as a store of wealth is shattered. 

      And the BTC Treasuries, MSTR, is the powder keg that could ignite such drops. MSTR is in a very dangerous position right now today, at these levels. MSTR is flying on fumes, and needs a BTC pump to sustain. 

      And liquidity well is running dry for acquiring BTC positions. 

      BTC stays sideways for a duration from here, MSTR will collapse. And will be forced to start liquidating BTC. 

      Nobody is rushing in to acquire BTC like they are Gold today, that should tell people something. 

      Use what excuse on needs, but fact is I have no bias, I hold no shorts and I hold no BTC positions any longer, I am simply an informed observer reporting what I see from an objective perspective. 

      1Reply
  • Henry ClarkPro Member
    Developer · Member since 2020 · 4k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    11mo

    OP late to the post. Long day in the sun today.  Thought I would read an enjoyable post, but it turned pretty heavy.  But I followed all the way through.

    Was really enjoying repartee until it got to shorts, puts and calls.  Brought back horrific moments from college. Taking a semester which only covered one formula.  Black Scholes formula.  3 tests.  10 questions per for the whole semester.  A Finance class they had to bring a Physics professor to teach.  

    On your original question of investing a million.  I had to ask myself what returns I would expect from Crypto versus some of our investments.

    Crypto. Bitcoin.  $111,887 today.  2024. 65,635.  2023. 26,967.  Wrote on a napkin so I might be off with these numbers.  No paper in our house in Belize.  Had to search for a pen.  414% return.  2023 sept to 2025 sept comparisons.

    We started Silver in 2024.

    Today $47.43; 2023 sept $22.90.  207% return

    Selfstorage- normal 25% down in 2023 of $1mm; or a $4mm deal.  Would expect a $2mm return, which we actually did $1.8mm on a $3.8mm deal in 2 years.  Actually we only had to put 10% down for SBA or $380k.  $1.8mm gain in $380k down.  200% return using 25% down.  Actual was 473% using the 10% down.

    I'll stick with REI. We control. It's scalable. We understand. And it's OPM. We stay in a 40 mile radius and to many deals in small town Iowa. And we aren't in a great market for Self Storage.

    Everything I know on Self storage I have posted in BP.  But I think it’s too much work for most investors.  What I love about Self Storage as a Controller/CFO it is pure Math.


    Start small and Make Your Big Mistakes Early.  

    Haven’t tried Crypto.  

    Hope it rains.  Have 24,000 teak seedlings to plant at this farm.  Have about 5,000 planted.  $13mm in 25 years.  Diversify.  Plus get to write-off 6 to 8 trips to Belize every year.  Beats out Silver, self storage or country subdivision investments for fun. 

    It’s your money.  You’re right even if you’re wrong.  

    0Reply
  • V.G JasonPro Member
    Investor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    10mo

    Think you're missing the forest for the trees.

    For one, the BTC example isn't to showcase the CAGR, yield, or absolute value it's gained. It's to show the narrative isn't what most think. The ones against it have a misperception of what the ones who own it have.

    Secondly, MSTRs mnav play has been on our sight for well over a year. This isn't something new or novel, it's something that Saylor guy has tried to manage with his "creative" financing products that will ultimately hold the bag if a true crash happens.

    The utility is the network, yes, it'll be tested if we see a crash. No, it won't vanish. This is a binary outcome; long term growth or 0.  

    And I can point at a ton of different assets that are only worth what someone pays and can trade exorbitantly higher than book value. Yet when correction happens, it shakes that same narrative. Bitcoin is no different in that standpoint, but explicitly different in how it operates.

    Gold has been sought out after to back another currency for the same reasons bitcoin is pursued independently; it cannot be controlled. The only thing that'll make Bitcoin go to 0 is if there's another more efficient store of value.

    You've openly been against BTC for most of this thread. Short it if you're so confident. I've been long BTC, short MSTR since Feb. I'm still of belief we'll see 70 before 150, as I've stated in another thread. Doesn't mean it isn't the best store of value, in my view.

    1Reply
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