Putting $1M into Crypto
Most Popular Reply
Real Estate Broker · Cleveland Dayton Cincinnati Toledo Columbus & Akron, OH · Member since 2013 · 30k+ posts · 20k+ votes
1yQuote from @Jay Hinrichs:
Quote from @James Wise:
Quote from @Steve K.:
@Jay Hinrichs Ohio, Columbus, Cleveland @Jim K. @James Wise
I don't invest in things I don't understand and I don't invest in things that I can't control. For those reasons, I've never got into Crypto so I got no friggin clue.
LOL me too.. my son in law is always telling me to buy it though. And I have some clients in Baltimore that were telling me to buy some when it got down to 15k a few years ago.. But I also had a client the year before get hosed with it.. going form 60k she paid and selling at 20k. I remember when it was 1 dollar and I do kick myself for not taking 1k and buying a thousand of them :) Even though I did not understand it then and done really now.. will stick to renting my money out to others for a fee that seems to have worked for me by and large for decades along with rehabbing or building new construction.. But like crypto can crash real estate was/is not immune from falling either.. we got hammered in 09 to 2011.
I look at it like this......If there is a random group of 10,000 people, I am probably smarter, better, and more experienced than 99% of them when it comes to making money in real estate.
Likewise, if there is a random group of 10,000 people, I am probably less knowledgeable and experienced in Crypto than 99% of them.
Only an idiot would invest their money in an area where they are on the bottom 1% when they could just invest it in an area where they are on the top 1%.
345 Replies
- 10moHenry ClarkPro MemberDeveloper · Member since 2020 · 4k+ posts · 4k+ votes
My bias is towards Silver. With that said.
Called or asked the following and they both have not done a transaction with BTC or other, nor have they heard of anyone doing a transaction:
1. Toyota dealer
2. Bank
3. Realtor
4. Regional hardware store.
Did not ask them about Gold or Silver, but am sure they would say the same thing, except maybe they have heard of a transaction, but not common place. Have several outlets however to sell Gold or Silver locally, easily.
Liquidity- Gold and Silver are far easier to liquidate or use for purchases than BTC.
Value establishment- I'll use Gold and Silver as comparisons to BTC. They have mechanical or industrial values. But the majority of Gold ever mined is still on hand and the majority of Silver has been used. Thus, Gold is used as a holder of Value, and Silver is more of a commodity. Both have millennium's worth of value establishment, versus BTC. Both Gold and Silver have a "Wider" market to establish their value.
Physical Safety- I'll pass on that. All three have issues to be argued.
Transferability- All are easily transferrable except for Silver which weighs a lot.
Stock Market Crash- All three will crash along with the stock market. Which is illogical at first. If you look historically at Gold and Silver, they always crash on a lagging basis with the stock market. As they are turned to for liquidity their value goes down, and their Market inventory goes up.
US Dollar Crash- Anything valued in US currency alone will crash also. If there is a market using other currency, then it will not be impacted from a currency standpoint. Although they may rise as an escape for USD valued Assets.
Since we are a Real Estate forum, lets test the value of BTC or other electronic currency.
Has anyone bought or sold Real Estate using them? Dollar size doesn't matter.
If you haven't but would. Would you do a straight Dollar for Dollar transfer, other than transaction fees? Or would you charge a premium.
For example, if a Drug lord wanted to buy my BTC, I would charge them $1.25 USD for BTC $1.00. Since I would be laundering their money.
Or if a Chinese or Russian person was trying to exit their countries, would charge them $1.30 USD Equivalent in their currency for BTC $1.00. Since I would have to figure a way to get the funds out of those countries, via Asset purchases, and then exporting.
- 10moV.G JasonPro MemberInvestor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
Quote from @Henry Clark:
My bias is towards Silver. With that said.
Called or asked the following and they both have not done a transaction with BTC or other, nor have they heard of anyone doing a transaction:
1. Toyota dealer
2. Bank
3. Realtor
4. Regional hardware store.
Did not ask them about Gold or Silver, but am sure they would say the same thing, except maybe they have heard of a transaction, but not common place. Have several outlets however to sell Gold or Silver locally, easily.
Liquidity- Gold and Silver are far easier to liquidate or use for purchases than BTC.
Value establishment- I'll use Gold and Silver as comparisons to BTC. They have mechanical or industrial values. But the majority of Gold ever mined is still on hand and the majority of Silver has been used. Thus, Gold is used as a holder of Value, and Silver is more of a commodity. Both have millennium's worth of value establishment, versus BTC. Both Gold and Silver have a "Wider" market to establish their value.
Physical Safety- I'll pass on that. All three have issues to be argued.
Transferability- All are easily transferrable except for Silver which weighs a lot.
Stock Market Crash- All three will crash along with the stock market. Which is illogical at first. If you look historically at Gold and Silver, they always crash on a lagging basis with the stock market. As they are turned to for liquidity their value goes down, and their Market inventory goes up.
US Dollar Crash- Anything valued in US currency alone will crash also. If there is a market using other currency, then it will not be impacted from a currency standpoint. Although they may rise as an escape for USD valued Assets.
Since we are a Real Estate forum, lets test the value of BTC or other electronic currency.
Has anyone bought or sold Real Estate using them? Dollar size doesn't matter.
If you haven't but would. Would you do a straight Dollar for Dollar transfer, other than transaction fees? Or would you charge a premium.
For example, if a Drug lord wanted to buy my BTC, I would charge them $1.25 USD for BTC $1.00. Since I would be laundering their money.
Or if a Chinese or Russian person was trying to exit their countries, would charge them $1.30 USD Equivalent in their currency for BTC $1.00. Since I would have to figure a way to get the funds out of those countries, via Asset purchases, and then exporting.
Bought a luxury car for my niece with BTC with a dealership in Texas. Dealership is owned by one of the biggest hospitality magnates.
Have an employee that bought their pied a tierre in Paris with BTC. I assume they bought with premi. And yes, you'll always have a discount on the sale and a premi on the buy due to vol and fees. No questions there. I've tried to buy a resort property in Croatia back in 2021 with BTC had issues with the exchanges; today it'd be easier and able. A currency function is just an extra, not the ultimate value of this though.
I disagree with liquidity among others especially storage, once you factor in digitalization and the above examples. I can't do that with my phys gold or gold etfs. Agree on crash, people think it's a hedge against the stock market it's a hedge against the dollar. It'll all crash if there's a crash. Bitcoin will actually lead the crash, in my opinion.
It's very hard to compete with BTC on these types of characteristics, none of them are superior. But am a fan of all 3 evidently as I've written in this thread. where as BTC is truly superior in portability, storage and only lacks in adoption which it's gaining share.
I think that's the best way to understand it's value. If you had to leave the country at a moment's notice how would you take all your assets assuming every totalitarian function is preventing you? Banks are freezing, real estate is blocked, stock exchanges halted, gold would get confiscated, etc.
I can literally walk on a plane from Austin to Sydney with nothing on me but knowledge of the seed phrase and retain all my BTC. That level of ability is unmatched as a store of value.
In regards to the thread, we're shaping up for a death cross on BTC about 7-14 days out depending on daily average-- I know, I know wide band. QQQ watch mark is $601, SPY $664. Once we get there, we need to see the following 7-10 trading days. Important earnings cycle, everyone's been selling the news.
- 10moJordan MoorheadBusiness MemberReal Estate Agent · Austin, TX · Member since 2015 · 5k+ posts · 3k+ votesPersonally I'm trying to stay under 5% with my crypto allocation, about 10% in public equities and a large portion in real estate that I control, 10% passive investments is my future cap, I don't want more real estate I don't control
Quote from @Steve K.:
The President Announced a Strategic Crypto Reserve consisting of ether, XRP, SOL, and Cardano/ADA. His son Eric said crypto is better than real estate for 2025. It seems like except for crypto, the economy is crashing. Should I sell my real estate and invest in crypto in 2025?
The Moorhead Team5139 Reviews- Investor · Boca Raton, FL · Member since 2012 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes10moWhen I started out with my original capital, crypto was less than 10% of my overall net worth, but it now comprises 40%+
Quote from @Jordan Moorhead:
Personally I'm trying to stay under 5% with my crypto allocation, about 10% in public equities and a large portion in real estate that I control, 10% passive investments is my future cap, I don't want more real estate I don't controlQuote from @Steve K.:
The President Announced a Strategic Crypto Reserve consisting of ether, XRP, SOL, and Cardano/ADA. His son Eric said crypto is better than real estate for 2025. It seems like except for crypto, the economy is crashing. Should I sell my real estate and invest in crypto in 2025?
and that's after pulling most of my original capital out. The key is getting out before I round trip back to <10% again. - 10moJordan MoorheadBusiness MemberReal Estate Agent · Austin, TX · Member since 2015 · 5k+ posts · 3k+ votes
Quote from @Chad U.:
When I started out with my original capital, crypto was less than 10% of my overall net worth, but it now comprises 40%+Quote from @Jordan Moorhead:
Personally I'm trying to stay under 5% with my crypto allocation, about 10% in public equities and a large portion in real estate that I control, 10% passive investments is my future cap, I don't want more real estate I don't controlQuote from @Steve K.:
The President Announced a Strategic Crypto Reserve consisting of ether, XRP, SOL, and Cardano/ADA. His son Eric said crypto is better than real estate for 2025. It seems like except for crypto, the economy is crashing. Should I sell my real estate and invest in crypto in 2025?
and that's after pulling most of my original capital out. The key is getting out before I round trip back to <10% again.Yea I would push a little higher if I had all of my money out
The Moorhead Team5139 Reviews - 10moJordan MoorheadBusiness MemberReal Estate Agent · Austin, TX · Member since 2015 · 5k+ posts · 3k+ votes
Quote from @Chad U.:
When I started out with my original capital, crypto was less than 10% of my overall net worth, but it now comprises 40%+Quote from @Jordan Moorhead:
Personally I'm trying to stay under 5% with my crypto allocation, about 10% in public equities and a large portion in real estate that I control, 10% passive investments is my future cap, I don't want more real estate I don't controlQuote from @Steve K.:
The President Announced a Strategic Crypto Reserve consisting of ether, XRP, SOL, and Cardano/ADA. His son Eric said crypto is better than real estate for 2025. It seems like except for crypto, the economy is crashing. Should I sell my real estate and invest in crypto in 2025?
and that's after pulling most of my original capital out. The key is getting out before I round trip back to <10% again.Yea I would push a little higher if I had all of my money out
The Moorhead Team5139 Reviews
- 10moNicholas L.Pro MemberFlipper/Rehabber · Pittsburgh · Member since 2018 · 6k+ posts · 5k+ votes
yep I'm enjoying reading this thread but i am roughly where you are
i do wish I'd bought more IBIT
- Contractor · Greater Seattle Tacoma · Member since 2023 · 11 posts · 14 votes10mo
Quote from @Steve K.:
The President Announced a Strategic Crypto Reserve consisting of ether, XRP, SOL, and Cardano/ADA. His son Eric said crypto is better than real estate for 2025. It seems like except for crypto, the economy is crashing. Should I sell my real estate and invest in crypto in 2025?
I'd say invest that money if it's money you can miss AND you have capacity to continue to earn elsewhere ie in real estate investing or a day job. I am very bullish on Crypto because of the coming boom and opportunity to get in on it before the masses including the banks and governments (which they are starting to accumulate now).
Crypto is highly volatile at the moment and partly by design. It's the wild west that real big players can still manipulate but it will come under control soon enough. Because of this it's smart to invest in infrastructure coins and the big ones. (I think JP Morgan just announced taking BTC/Eth as collateral on loans.)
When the Clarity Act gets signed I expect things to go up even more as it will add some stability and allow for more entry into the market by bigger players. More important is which coins you buy into NOW.
Outside of BTC and Eth I think other great coins are; Solana, Bittensor (TAO), Chainlink, AAVE, ADA, Maple Finance, Fluid. My favorite is Bittensor.And don't forget about taxes on this. Those things are changing with the IRS. Best method is to use a software for it that will track the crypto from purchase to sell (in a nutshell) so as not to be taxed on 100% of what you get back which would include the cost of the stock and purchase fee. Put simply, 400 = 400 = taxed unless you can prove to the IRS your purchase and fee. With keeping track or having the software do it, 400 sell, you picked it up for 350, = 50 taxed not 400. Where things can get convoluted is when you use a coin to buy another coin(s) on another exchange, etc. it can get sloppy in terms of accounting.
So in short, I'd definitely load up on crypto but not if it over extends you or you expect a return instantly unless you get real good at predicting the volatility of that market at this current time. Just my two cents.
- Flipper/Rehabber · CA · Member since 2023 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes10mo
- Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes10mo
Quote from @Alan F.:
I am invested in GDX, really across the spectrum; long, day/week options plays, swing plays.
That is my ONLY materials position.
For me, there is simply too much volatility and geo-politics playing out in assorted minerals/materials, import/export etc.. There is also heavy speculation on the deep ocean mining front. I am not a fan of such speculation levels of "feelings".
For me GDX is a no-brainer play on obvious math. Their costs of operations are rather fixed, yet their products market value has skyrocketed feeding rare % of the gains straight too the bottom line. As said, simple math. As well as price support given the international consumption rate of gold by assorted governments.
Healthcare I am bearish on the entire sector.
Healthcare runs via a weird fraud scheme in USA. The way insurance and service providers are comingled, the USA prices are way WAY out of control vs most peoples affordability.
This makes it low hanging fruit for ai disruption. I have not seen that disruption filter through yet so I am not an investor until I see, and know with some level of certainty, how the dust will settle.
I also see legal industry equally low hanging fruit for ai disruption, given it's equally sky high cost vs populace affordability measure in mass.
I know you'll get what I am laying down V.G but some with their bi-polar perception will misconstrue this as forecasting a collapse of the industries. That's NOT what I am saying. I said "disruption" not crash.
In disruption their is winners, losers, sideways movers. I don't who will be what as of yet so, I'm not touching any of it.
I am a lot like Buffet, I don't see much of any legit opportunity out there and a hell of a lot of risk. I have no interest in the risk levels many come with.
I do make assorted ai plays but your dang right I keep a tight trailing stop loss. Have had those triggered several times over past recent, and I am a-ok with that.
I see things at an inflection point, and now it's just a matter of most working to time the top. That is the definition of "Danger Zone".
For every 1 position I hold/take I probably got 10 monitor triggers running.
When analysis does not make sense, DONT buy just for buying sake, right.
I love Chipotle, I'd love a position in Chipotle, but no way am I paying Lambo prices for a Beamer. I don't care what price action has been, it's only worth $24 to me, per the fundamentals.
I see gold hitting $6k oz in mid-term. So with GDX, I can simply reverse engineer things, know what profits will be when their operations are based on 2,400oz, and sort what profitability and thus valuations will be.
I am a bit conservative in this regard, many are stating gold too $8koz.
Rare Earth's, too many politics involved. Too limited control over supply.
Healthcare, in a non-viable pricing model over any longevity.
- Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes10mo
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Alan F.:
I am invested in GDX, really across the spectrum; long, day/week options plays, swing plays.
That is my ONLY materials position.
For me, there is simply too much volatility and geo-politics playing out in assorted minerals/materials, import/export etc.. There is also heavy speculation on the deep ocean mining front. I am not a fan of such speculation levels of "feelings".
For me GDX is a no-brainer play on obvious math. Their costs of operations are rather fixed, yet their products market value has skyrocketed feeding rare % of the gains straight too the bottom line. As said, simple math. As well as price support given the international consumption rate of gold by assorted governments.
Healthcare I am bearish on the entire sector.
Healthcare runs via a weird fraud scheme in USA. The way insurance and service providers are comingled, the USA prices are way WAY out of control vs most peoples affordability.
This makes it low hanging fruit for ai disruption. I have not seen that disruption filter through yet so I am not an investor until I see, and know with some level of certainty, how the dust will settle.
I also see legal industry equally low hanging fruit for ai disruption, given it's equally sky high cost vs populace affordability measure in mass.
I know you'll get what I am laying down V.G but some with their bi-polar perception will misconstrue this as forecasting a collapse of the industries. That's NOT what I am saying. I said "disruption" not crash.
In disruption their is winners, losers, sideways movers. I don't who will be what as of yet so, I'm not touching any of it.
I am a lot like Buffet, I don't see much of any legit opportunity out there and a hell of a lot of risk. I have no interest in the risk levels many come with.
I do make assorted ai plays but your dang right I keep a tight trailing stop loss. Have had those triggered several times over past recent, and I am a-ok with that.
I see things at an inflection point, and now it's just a matter of most working to time the top. That is the definition of "Danger Zone".
For every 1 position I hold/take I probably got 10 monitor triggers running.
When analysis does not make sense, DONT buy just for buying sake, right.
I love Chipotle, I'd love a position in Chipotle, but no way am I paying Lambo prices for a Beamer. I don't care what price action has been, it's only worth $24 to me, per the fundamentals.
I see gold hitting $6k oz in mid-term. So with GDX, I can simply reverse engineer things, know what profits will be when their operations are based on 2,400oz, and sort what profitability and thus valuations will be.
I am a bit conservative in this regard, many are stating gold too $8koz.
Rare Earth's, too many politics involved. Too limited control over supply.
Healthcare, in a non-viable pricing model over any longevity.
"I am invested in GDX, really across the spectrum..."
Alan, did you do something? Or is it just amazing timing?
Secretly Alan is a quant at BlackRock, lol.
- 9moV.G JasonPro MemberInvestor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votesNo crazy thoughts. Just decent choices for a balanced, passive portfolio.
Quote from @Alan F.:
BTC passed death cross, ETH facing it. IWM we'll have to watch for. But getting uglier daily, so lots of headwinds in these.
SPY and QQQ safe and may have rotational tailwinds.
2026 is shaping up to be like H2 2022. We'll see folks say Bitcoin is a scam and dead, AI a bubble, etc. It's just an opportunity to buy, like mentioned way earlier in this thread. San Altman and Michael Saylor guy may be scams, but the underlying tech and assets are not. Don't confuse that.
Right now, NVIDIA earnings are going to be the most interesting. - 9moHenry ClarkPro MemberDeveloper · Member since 2020 · 4k+ posts · 4k+ votes
Quote from @V.G Jason:
No crazy thoughts. Just decent choices for a balanced, passive portfolio.Quote from @Alan F.:
BTC passed death cross, ETH facing it. IWM we'll have to watch for. But getting uglier daily, so lots of headwinds in these.
SPY and QQQ safe and may have rotational tailwinds.
2026 is shaping up to be like H2 2022. We'll see folks say Bitcoin is a scam and dead, AI a bubble, etc. It's just an opportunity to buy, like mentioned way earlier in this thread. San Altman and Michael Saylor guy may be scams, but the underlying tech and assets are not. Don't confuse that.
Right now, NVIDIA earnings are going to be the most interesting.Can you give a summary of Stable Coin, Genius Act, Gold backing, government adoption? Thanks. I’ve skimmed the surface and it seems plausible Stable Coin has Legs. This would then put pressure on the banks and also other digital coins Longterm.
- 9moV.G JasonPro MemberInvestor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
Quote from @Henry Clark:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
No crazy thoughts. Just decent choices for a balanced, passive portfolio.Quote from @Alan F.:
BTC passed death cross, ETH facing it. IWM we'll have to watch for. But getting uglier daily, so lots of headwinds in these.
SPY and QQQ safe and may have rotational tailwinds.
2026 is shaping up to be like H2 2022. We'll see folks say Bitcoin is a scam and dead, AI a bubble, etc. It's just an opportunity to buy, like mentioned way earlier in this thread. San Altman and Michael Saylor guy may be scams, but the underlying tech and assets are not. Don't confuse that.
Right now, NVIDIA earnings are going to be the most interesting.Can you give a summary of Stable Coin, Genius Act, Gold backing, government adoption? Thanks. I’ve skimmed the surface and it seems plausible Stable Coin has Legs. This would then put pressure on the banks and also other digital coins Longterm.
So stable coins are just a digital asset tied to an underlying asset. So in our case the USD Stable coins are just US digital dollars. The GENIUS act is legislation to really give it some credence. The GENIUS act did a few things; auditing controls, tracking/surveillance rights, compliance programs and a mandatory 1:1 reserve. The real risk is Stablecoin run risk; basically a run on the bank where massive redemption happens given it's a 24/7 mechanism. The real benefit is that it's a 24/7 mechanism, on blockchain, moves quicker. For example, I usually feed my brokerage systems via stablecoins not ACH/Wire due to settlement time.
This ties into gold to a degree. Foreign nations, in particular China, have stockpiled gold and done a massive run on it. To fund that some nations, like China, sold US debt. They sold approximately $400+ billion of US Treasuries, and to some degree bought that all in gold(not verifiable). China did this to the greatest degree, others have too.
Basically, it's a spread trade. Buy gold/sell US dollar. It's happened almost everywhere.The one that could do it to the utmost is Japan because they own the most US treasuries. This likely won't happen due to Japan's role in the financial global market that if they decided that was the best solution the problem they'd create(massive Yen unwind) would be far more problematic.
If everyone is selling our debt, who buys it? Well go back to the first point-- Stablecoins are mandated to be 1:1 reserve. They are now bid to buy our debt.
This makes US debt go from foreign nations to US stablecoin issuers. For foreign nations, they now need a new underlying asset for world trade if they're divesting from the dollar. Does China want to work in Rupees? Does India want to work in Rubles? Does Russia agree to use Yuan? Likely not, let's agree to use Gold. Hence the trade, hard to find another agreeable commodity or currency.
This makes US debt actually more controlled by US stablecoin issuers. And the can of worms opens there; stablecoin usually buys short term, china/nations sell long term, if short term rates get too low does stablecoins take their net operating profit and buy more speculative assets. If those assets go down, do they have to sell their debt to recoup. It can be a vicious cycle. Just regardless, there is going to be headwind pressure on the 10 year and longer duration treasuries. It's not a total net negative that more US debt is owned by US than foreign nations, once could say it's a positive cause then they can't really manipulate it like they've done this year. Just no way to know today.
- 9moHenry ClarkPro MemberDeveloper · Member since 2020 · 4k+ posts · 4k+ votes
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @Henry Clark:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
No crazy thoughts. Just decent choices for a balanced, passive portfolio.Quote from @Alan F.:
BTC passed death cross, ETH facing it. IWM we'll have to watch for. But getting uglier daily, so lots of headwinds in these.
SPY and QQQ safe and may have rotational tailwinds.
2026 is shaping up to be like H2 2022. We'll see folks say Bitcoin is a scam and dead, AI a bubble, etc. It's just an opportunity to buy, like mentioned way earlier in this thread. San Altman and Michael Saylor guy may be scams, but the underlying tech and assets are not. Don't confuse that.
Right now, NVIDIA earnings are going to be the most interesting.Can you give a summary of Stable Coin, Genius Act, Gold backing, government adoption? Thanks. I’ve skimmed the surface and it seems plausible Stable Coin has Legs. This would then put pressure on the banks and also other digital coins Longterm.
So stable coins are just a digital asset tied to an underlying asset. So in our case the USD Stable coins are just US digital dollars. The GENIUS act is legislation to really give it some credence. The GENIUS act did a few things; auditing controls, tracking/surveillance rights, compliance programs and a mandatory 1:1 reserve. The real risk is Stablecoin run risk; basically a run on the bank where massive redemption happens given it's a 24/7 mechanism. The real benefit is that it's a 24/7 mechanism, on blockchain, moves quicker. For example, I usually feed my brokerage systems via stablecoins not ACH/Wire due to settlement time.
This ties into gold to a degree. Foreign nations, in particular China, have stockpiled gold and done a massive run on it. To fund that some nations, like China, sold US debt. They sold approximately $400+ billion of US Treasuries, and to some degree bought that all in gold(not verifiable). China did this to the greatest degree, others have too.
Basically, it's a spread trade. Buy gold/sell US dollar. It's happened almost everywhere.The one that could do it to the utmost is Japan because they own the most US treasuries. This likely won't happen due to Japan's role in the financial global market that if they decided that was the best solution the problem they'd create(massive Yen unwind) would be far more problematic.
If everyone is selling our debt, who buys it? Well go back to the first point-- Stablecoins are mandated to be 1:1 reserve. They are now bid to buy our debt.
This makes US debt go from foreign nations to US stablecoin issuers. For foreign nations, they now need a new underlying asset for world trade if they're divesting from the dollar. Does China want to work in Rupees? Does India want to work in Rubles? Does Russia agree to use Yuan? Likely not, let's agree to use Gold. Hence the trade, hard to find another agreeable commodity or currency.
This makes US debt actually more controlled by US stablecoin issuers. And the can of worms opens there; stablecoin usually buys short term, china/nations sell long term, if short term rates get too low does stablecoins take their net operating profit and buy more speculative assets. If those assets go down, do they have to sell their debt to recoup. It can be a vicious cycle. Just regardless, there is going to be headwind pressure on the 10 year and longer duration treasuries. It's not a total net negative that more US debt is owned by US than foreign nations, once could say it's a positive cause then they can't really manipulate it like they've done this year. Just no way to know today.
Thanks for overview. Intentionally have not researched any of these electronic money options.
I do believe the U.S. govt and Fed Reserve have taken us past the point of no return as far as debt and our only viable option other than war or default, is devaluation which will devastate mid and lower income.At some point monetary policy has to be taken away from the government. In the electronic money, I think I won’t jump in until it has a chance over say 5 or 10 years to go from speculation to a commoditized solution. At that point I won’t worry about a Run in it. Since those funds will have no where to go other than hard assets.
I’m not worried about BRICS. I don’t think a person could pick 4 more unstable countries than these, even including Saudi Arabia with its wealth.
We are diversified with Self storage, Country subdivisions, farm land, stock market, cash equivalents and Belize Teak farm, it doesn’t matter what happens. I just don’t like leaving money on the table. Actually since we don’t speculate, I just view electronic money as a new tool once it stabilizes and the dust settles, and not as an investment.
Thanks again for summarizing.
- 9moV.G JasonPro MemberInvestor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
Quote from @Henry Clark:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @Henry Clark:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
No crazy thoughts. Just decent choices for a balanced, passive portfolio.Quote from @Alan F.:
BTC passed death cross, ETH facing it. IWM we'll have to watch for. But getting uglier daily, so lots of headwinds in these.
SPY and QQQ safe and may have rotational tailwinds.
2026 is shaping up to be like H2 2022. We'll see folks say Bitcoin is a scam and dead, AI a bubble, etc. It's just an opportunity to buy, like mentioned way earlier in this thread. San Altman and Michael Saylor guy may be scams, but the underlying tech and assets are not. Don't confuse that.
Right now, NVIDIA earnings are going to be the most interesting.Can you give a summary of Stable Coin, Genius Act, Gold backing, government adoption? Thanks. I’ve skimmed the surface and it seems plausible Stable Coin has Legs. This would then put pressure on the banks and also other digital coins Longterm.
So stable coins are just a digital asset tied to an underlying asset. So in our case the USD Stable coins are just US digital dollars. The GENIUS act is legislation to really give it some credence. The GENIUS act did a few things; auditing controls, tracking/surveillance rights, compliance programs and a mandatory 1:1 reserve. The real risk is Stablecoin run risk; basically a run on the bank where massive redemption happens given it's a 24/7 mechanism. The real benefit is that it's a 24/7 mechanism, on blockchain, moves quicker. For example, I usually feed my brokerage systems via stablecoins not ACH/Wire due to settlement time.
This ties into gold to a degree. Foreign nations, in particular China, have stockpiled gold and done a massive run on it. To fund that some nations, like China, sold US debt. They sold approximately $400+ billion of US Treasuries, and to some degree bought that all in gold(not verifiable). China did this to the greatest degree, others have too.
Basically, it's a spread trade. Buy gold/sell US dollar. It's happened almost everywhere.The one that could do it to the utmost is Japan because they own the most US treasuries. This likely won't happen due to Japan's role in the financial global market that if they decided that was the best solution the problem they'd create(massive Yen unwind) would be far more problematic.
If everyone is selling our debt, who buys it? Well go back to the first point-- Stablecoins are mandated to be 1:1 reserve. They are now bid to buy our debt.
This makes US debt go from foreign nations to US stablecoin issuers. For foreign nations, they now need a new underlying asset for world trade if they're divesting from the dollar. Does China want to work in Rupees? Does India want to work in Rubles? Does Russia agree to use Yuan? Likely not, let's agree to use Gold. Hence the trade, hard to find another agreeable commodity or currency.
This makes US debt actually more controlled by US stablecoin issuers. And the can of worms opens there; stablecoin usually buys short term, china/nations sell long term, if short term rates get too low does stablecoins take their net operating profit and buy more speculative assets. If those assets go down, do they have to sell their debt to recoup. It can be a vicious cycle. Just regardless, there is going to be headwind pressure on the 10 year and longer duration treasuries. It's not a total net negative that more US debt is owned by US than foreign nations, once could say it's a positive cause then they can't really manipulate it like they've done this year. Just no way to know today.
Thanks for overview. Intentionally have not researched any of these electronic money options.
I do believe the U.S. govt and Fed Reserve have taken us past the point of no return as far as debt and our only viable option other than war or default, is devaluation which will devastate mid and lower income.At some point monetary policy has to be taken away from the government. In the electronic money, I think I won’t jump in until it has a chance over say 5 or 10 years to go from speculation to a commoditized solution. At that point I won’t worry about a Run in it. Since those funds will have no where to go other than hard assets.
I’m not worried about BRICS. I don’t think a person could pick 4 more unstable countries than these, even including Saudi Arabia with its wealth.
We are diversified with Self storage, Country subdivisions, farm land, stock market, cash equivalents and Belize Teak farm, it doesn’t matter what happens. I just don’t like leaving money on the table. Actually since we don’t speculate, I just view electronic money as a new tool once it stabilizes and the dust settles, and not as an investment.
Thanks again for summarizing.
Physical RE with utility is an excellent play and likely the best play if expertise is there. If it's not there, it can be too much. That goes for any asset, including Bitcoin for someone without an understanding. The only headwinds for physical re via dollar devaluation is the same for what you buy it for; it'll appreciate, therefore so will your capex/opex costs.
Your point in bold is why it'll have value. And your point on lack of govt intervention is why the network will develop.
The drawdowns are par for the course, people trade the vol too much and create these events. It's also apart of the nature of these 24/7 global assets. Still believe we hit 70 before 150 but it's just a guess like it was 6-8 months ago when I said it.
- Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes10mo
For BTC, I will share how I view it, because I like to keep things simple.
I find if I can't simply understand something, it's probably all BS anyways.
Now looking at the 10yr below, if this were a company I'd say HOLLY CR#P, over 400X in 10 years. From 300 too 126k.
OMG, it must be doing AMAZING things! It must be doing some BIG service, providing some BIG something.
But I scratch my head and say "well, WTF does BTC do ?????"
I don't know anyone who actually uses it for anything.
I don't know a single NEED for it, need in the very definition of the word. Everyone NEEDS a roof over their head, shelter. Everyone NEEDS to eat, water, and everyone NEEDS money to trade for the things they need. But does anyone, anywhere, NEED BTC?
Some say it's a store of wealth. Ah-ok, is their some lack of stores of wealth? Nope.
Has BTC changed how all other stores of wealth work or exist, replacing any? Nope.
Ok, so let's measure up. BTC has replaced exactly nothing. BTC is taking over exactly nothing.
So remove all emotion, just go by the facts of things, BTC has just added-to the assorted things people trade and popularly decide has a dollar value to it like Pokémon cards? Yup.
So if it's not needed, has not replaced anything, has nothing reliant on it...... it can also disappear. Yuuup!
"but it's a store of wealth, a store of wealth, store of wealth" uh-huh, yeah I got that, it's a store of wealth just like real estate, gold, stocks, fine art, collector cars, collector cards and about 427 other things people use as stores of wealth.
BTC was supposed to be different, unlock new frontiers, change how we live, impact life and commerce. It's literally done NONE of any of that. It's only added-to just like a SPAC....
Look, if instead of a crypto BTC had been, say used gym socks, HELL YES I would have been an investor in those stinky used gym socks if they were going parabolically up too. It's the parabolic profits, not the "thing" I was chasing.
I am willing to bet, this is a far more popular sentiment then many would like to let onto.
The shine hasn't only tarnished, there's a new shiny object in the playground and unlike BTC there is all kinds of things we can and ARE doing with it.
I think the only thing that can save BTC now, is a USD collapse, something that gives BTC a NEED. Because without a NEED to fill, it's just interesting, and we get bored of things really fast nowadays. It was interesting when new, then really interesting because it made money. Stop making money, meah, not so interesting anymore.
- Real Estate Investor · Troutdale, OR · Member since 2012 · 4 posts · 3 votes10mo
Most people are missing the entire purpose of crypto. It was ment for all of us to get away from the corrupt banking industry through DEFI.
Instead of bankers we could interact with eachother on the DEFI side and our transaction would be free from taxes and hidden from government overreach. Since it's inception though the game has changed and not for the better most say.
If your play is to stay away then do so. However with all the craziness of the last few years and all the big companies going all in there are pushing this new trend.
Onchain is the future and every single corporation has now positioned themselves for the new economy. At the beginning of 2023-2024 there were ruffly 20,000+ crypto. There are currently 26.9 million let that sink in!
Governments are currently buying BTC, ETH, SOL and more. The goal is to onchain everything in hopes of avoiding a market crash which is coming either way. At the same time this spark has allowed these big corporations to become there own banks with there own tokens or coins and Centeral Exchanges know as CEX. These exchanges require all your information as this is now the government side of the with DEXs or DEFI Exchanges remaining for those still believing in cryptos original intent.
I hold over 100 different tokens and I've played it just like the stock market. I've made good returns buying low selling high. Because I play both I've noticed when when crypto slide down stocks rise up and vs versus. I have moon plays which are educated hopeium and I also have been closely watching #RWA Real World Assets. This is huge in the crypto space and soon all realestate will be available on chain through #RWA.
As far as what you can buy and where with crypto, that's changing daily and growing fast. There are all kinds of things for instance you can buy gold out of atms with crypto, you can take taxi's buy food, rent hotel rooms. Now granted thats not all here in America just yet but its coming fast.
Lastly watch this play WLFI I'm not telling you to buy but watch this bank grow. Yes this is Trumps portfolio of companies.
- Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes10mo
Quote from @Scott Anthony:
Most people are missing the entire purpose of crypto. It was ment for all of us to get away from the corrupt banking industry through DEFI.
Instead of bankers we could interact with eachother on the DEFI side and our transaction would be free from taxes and hidden from government overreach. Since it's inception though the game has changed and not for the better most say.
If your play is to stay away then do so. However with all the craziness of the last few years and all the big companies going all in there are pushing this new trend.
Onchain is the future and every single corporation has now positioned themselves for the new economy. At the beginning of 2023-2024 there were ruffly 20,000+ crypto. There are currently 26.9 million let that sink in!
Governments are currently buying BTC, ETH, SOL and more. The goal is to onchain everything in hopes of avoiding a market crash which is coming either way. At the same time this spark has allowed these big corporations to become there own banks with there own tokens or coins and Centeral Exchanges know as CEX. These exchanges require all your information as this is now the government side of the with DEXs or DEFI Exchanges remaining for those still believing in cryptos original intent.
I hold over 100 different tokens and I've played it just like the stock market. I've made good returns buying low selling high. Because I play both I've noticed when when crypto slide down stocks rise up and vs versus. I have moon plays which are educated hopeium and I also have been closely watching #RWA Real World Assets. This is huge in the crypto space and soon all realestate will be available on chain through #RWA.
As far as what you can buy and where with crypto, that's changing daily and growing fast. There are all kinds of things for instance you can buy gold out of atms with crypto, you can take taxi's buy food, rent hotel rooms. Now granted thats not all here in America just yet but its coming fast.
Lastly watch this play WLFI I'm not telling you to buy but watch this bank grow. Yes this is Trumps portfolio of companies.
You just defined the word "Speculation".....
- 9moV.G JasonPro MemberInvestor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
FWIW, legging into LEAPS on ETHA. Among other trades. Fear & Greed are hitting all time lows; no saying how long it stays there but willing to bet on time decay.
$10-12 strikes for a $14-16 premium for Jan 2028 expiry. For ETHA. Put sizable money here. Did some ratio spreads trade too; long 1 call @35, short two @36 for mid 2026 expiry. Net long, willing to get super long eth. Will do short term ratio spread put trades leading up to mid 2026 expiry if we see further, harsher dips. Will get long keys if we see $2200 or below.
Putting a spread trade on, on IBIT. Buying $33 puts/selling 2x $30 puts for size with March 2026 expiry. Buying $70 calls and 2x $100 calls for Dec 2027 for small size. Buying outright shares on the dip, and will continue down to my open put levels. Will engage in leaps if we start to test $80k. And will purchase outright keys around $70k.
Watching SOL too. No real thesis but directional trading. Will grab size if we test sub $100 and leg in on the falling knife. Hold period is whatever I want, so I'll put in about 1.5-2% of the port. On the leg up, whenever that is. I'll add leverage.
No leverage here right now though.
NVIDIA earnings in under an hour. - 9moV.G JasonPro MemberInvestor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
Not sure how much longer this goes, feel like if this momentum makes it to the 9th the Fed will act even without jobs report. To hedge people unwinding and some directionally shorting Bitcoin. It's coming time to now actually get out of the MSTR short, and then go long calls in spread form. There's no tangible way to hedge Bitcoin with such size.
I figured today's session would go green and then turn red at the last hour. Got red far sooner.
Friday's usually a red day, but I always watch BTC momentum 2-3 hours to open. If it's propped but not ripping(like today), this could go anywhere but that's a bearish sign.
- Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes9mo
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Not sure how much longer this goes, feel like if this momentum makes it to the 9th the Fed will act even without jobs report. To hedge people unwinding and some directionally shorting Bitcoin. It's coming time to now actually get out of the MSTR short, and then go long calls in spread form. There's no tangible way to hedge Bitcoin with such size.
I figured today's session would go green and then turn red at the last hour. Got red far sooner.
Friday's usually a red day, but I always watch BTC momentum 2-3 hours to open. If it's propped but not ripping(like today), this could go anywhere but that's a bearish sign.
I recently heard meetkevin say he won't touch BTC until Saylor goes bankrupt, and until then he considers BTC a Ponzi, and after Saylor goes bust then it's a store of wealth.
Interesting take. On front side it lands as lip-service but when consider it, it's got some substance to it.
My marks for BTC is 78,500 - 87,500. This range is the kind of mid-field. Where the battle plays out of influence and action to what direction.
Above, yes we were coming down. I coin that a bearish direction in a bullish range.
BTC get's dropped below 78,500 that for me is bearish range, and one has to consider all that could happen in that bear-land. And the effect BTC transitioning into bear territory could hold for other crypto, or kick off in other crypto such as ETH. And could a feed-back loop begin just as a feedback loop happened as BTC's rise made others rise, some of substance and many of just utter trash.
Could the opposite hold true? Trash unwinding adding to fear in the legit to drop more, feeding back in a huge crypto unwind down?
Sentiment is paramount. To be coined a store of wealth, an item needs to retain wealth, not bleed it.
For me, in BTC I see the red-line at $72k. It can breach but needs to bounce up from any breaches. If goes below $68k...... That's where I see crash-actions kicking in.
And by crash-actions I mean where things go crypto wide all but certainly. And given the BTC reserves and investments, market wide.
Mass liquidations actions kick in, sentiment goes into terror-land. Fear hit's apocalyptic levels. And with that anything and everything get's second and third questioned.
The ai action get's scrutinized a whole hell of a lot harder, PE's get questioned way more then they are, fear funs the roost.
Funny part is POTUS may love it in uncharacterized fashion because the fear drives entry into bonds and treasuries thus helping on that front a heck of a lot.
I do not trust Saylor further then I can throw him. If anything he's almost a kind of Cramer of Crypto; when he says buy you should take a long hard consideration at selling.
Saylor says no $ issues and no chance at all MSTR would ever get into a forced liquidation situation..... one better get into the balance sheet and check the math and see what the math says. I did. Cramer of Crypto.
Companies who exist via selling stock shares vs, ya-know, doing there actual business, don't have a history of ending well.
- 9moHenry ClarkPro MemberDeveloper · Member since 2020 · 4k+ posts · 4k+ votes
@Steve K. realize this post was for kicks. But since I don’t follow E currency. This post is 9 months old. What would be your gain or loss since then? Then would you keep rolling or pull profits?
- 8moSteve K.Realtor · Boulder, CO · Member since 2016 · 3k+ posts · 5k+ votesOP
Quote from @Henry Clark:
@Steve K. realize this post was for kicks. But since I don’t follow E currency. This post is 9 months old. What would be your gain or loss since then? Then would you keep rolling or pull profits?
Hi Henry, Sorry I am just replying to this post!
Great idea to circle back and see what would have happened had I been serious about selling all of my real estate and going big on crypto this year, specifically the ones that the president said would be used for the strategic crypto reserve (Cardano/ADA, XRP, SOL and Ether).
At the time of the original post Cardano was $1 now it is $0.35, XRP was $3.11 now $1.91, Solano $240 now $126, Etherium was $3,634 now $2,980 and BTC was $105,000 now $88,000.
Meanwhile the real estate that I would have sold has done very well providing positive cashflow, tax benefits, mortgage principle pay-down from rents, and value appreciation.
I think you will appreciate this based on your awesome posts enjoying a nice quality of life... the main reason I don't really mess with crypto much is that I don't enjoy it. There is way too much volatility and too many uncontrollable variables/ unknowns/ risk/ stress and BS to sort through. I did some day-trading in my 20's and learned quickly that I could make good money but also that it wasn't a healthy lifestyle option for me. Crypto is like day-trading on steroids: the clock never stops on it, your positions can go to zero, scams are not uncommon, there is very little regulation or guardrails and when there is a steep decline when you want to pull out, your account can simply be frozen by an exchange as values tank and there is nothing you can do about it. I saw this happen to several friends who got hurt badly during the Terra (LUNA), FTX, Bitconnect, Mt. Gox etc. debacles.
I'm sure plenty of people made plenty of money on crypto this year, but I still prefer real estate personally.
Happy Holidays!
- 8moHenry ClarkPro MemberDeveloper · Member since 2020 · 4k+ posts · 4k+ votesI went to a baseball game for 4 hours and was not watching the market. Lost $30,000.
Quote from @Steve K.:
Quote from @Henry Clark:
@Steve K. realize this post was for kicks. But since I don’t follow E currency. This post is 9 months old. What would be your gain or loss since then? Then would you keep rolling or pull profits?
Hi Henry, Sorry I am just replying to this post!
Great idea to circle back and see what would have happened had I been serious about selling all of my real estate and going big on crypto this year, specifically the ones that the president said would be used for the strategic crypto reserve (Cardano/ADA, XRP, SOL and Ether).
At the time of the original post Cardano was $1 now it is $0.35, XRP was $3.11 now $1.91, Solano $240 now $126, Etherium was $3,634 now $2,980 and BTC was $105,000 now $88,000.
Meanwhile the real estate that I would have sold has done very well providing positive cashflow, tax benefits, mortgage principle pay-down from rents, and value appreciation.
I think you will appreciate this based on your awesome posts enjoying a nice quality of life... the main reason I don't really mess with crypto much is that I don't enjoy it. There is way too much volatility and too many uncontrollable variables/ unknowns/ risk/ stress and BS to sort through. I did some day-trading in my 20's and learned quickly that I could make good money but also that it wasn't a healthy lifestyle option for me. Crypto is like day-trading on steroids: the clock never stops on it, your positions can go to zero, scams are not uncommon, there is very little regulation or guardrails and when there is a steep decline when you want to pull out, your account can simply be frozen by an exchange as values tank and there is nothing you can do about it. I saw this happen to several friends who got hurt badly during the Terra (LUNA), FTX, Bitconnect, Mt. Gox etc. debacles.
I'm sure plenty of people made plenty of money on crypto this year, but I still prefer real estate personally.
Happy Holidays!
Had one stock lose 50%, then zero a week later. Made 19 positive trades and 1 negative and wiped out. Switched to REI.
Ill DM you an asset play. Low risk downside. Extreme upside from 5 different aspects converging. No money being made off of BP. Just killing time. - 8moV.G JasonPro MemberInvestor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
Quote from @Steve K.:
Quote from @Henry Clark:
@Steve K. realize this post was for kicks. But since I don’t follow E currency. This post is 9 months old. What would be your gain or loss since then? Then would you keep rolling or pull profits?
Hi Henry, Sorry I am just replying to this post!
Great idea to circle back and see what would have happened had I been serious about selling all of my real estate and going big on crypto this year, specifically the ones that the president said would be used for the strategic crypto reserve (Cardano/ADA, XRP, SOL and Ether).
At the time of the original post Cardano was $1 now it is $0.35, XRP was $3.11 now $1.91, Solano $240 now $126, Etherium was $3,634 now $2,980 and BTC was $105,000 now $88,000.
Meanwhile the real estate that I would have sold has done very well providing positive cashflow, tax benefits, mortgage principle pay-down from rents, and value appreciation.
I think you will appreciate this based on your awesome posts enjoying a nice quality of life... the main reason I don't really mess with crypto much is that I don't enjoy it. There is way too much volatility and too many uncontrollable variables/ unknowns/ risk/ stress and BS to sort through. I did some day-trading in my 20's and learned quickly that I could make good money but also that it wasn't a healthy lifestyle option for me. Crypto is like day-trading on steroids: the clock never stops on it, your positions can go to zero, scams are not uncommon, there is very little regulation or guardrails and when there is a steep decline when you want to pull out, your account can simply be frozen by an exchange as values tank and there is nothing you can do about it. I saw this happen to several friends who got hurt badly during the Terra (LUNA), FTX, Bitconnect, Mt. Gox etc. debacles.
I'm sure plenty of people made plenty of money on crypto this year, but I still prefer real estate personally.
Happy Holidays!
Real estate is definitely local specific. So some spots have absolutely batted extremely well, most have been terrible. If I bought in my specific markets Jan 2025 versus now I'd be down just shy of 20%. Regardless, nobody invests for a 1-year horizon. That's trading. And trading wise, I have had my best year since 2020 because of trading vol. Investing wise I am up YTD in low double digits(when I separate portfolios) mainly led by Gold and hurt by real estate.
The volatility argument is true, but as a magnitude it's actually less. As the market cap has grown, the volatility has spread not enlarged. Check annualized vol of BTC vs Tesla and Nvidia for 2025. Meta, Netflix and almost 5% of the S&P have higher vol in longer periods, too. I would argue volatility is always going to be higher due to 24/7 trading, still early adoption which lead to extremely high leverage and illiquid books, and last but not least...the current administration.
If you do not like it, that's preferential and totally fair. I just find the arguments never holding up against it. All of them have been historically worse than this year, just most have never been involved.
It's best purpose(for me) as an investor and smaller degree trader is it's forward telling narratives. We're 6-10 weeks shy of mega cap and large cap earnings and sitting between 50-80% of the 50/200 dma.
Market's saying give me some really good data, or we're going to **** the bed in 2026 from 2-4 weeks prior to earning period to after. Much like BTC has done in the last 8-10 weeks and needs another 2-3 months of consolidation before any tailwinds. I would be surprised if we still do not touch $70k, before $150k.
Q3 IV near earnings is telling you the market is incredibly sensitive and fragile, and we're just going towards more uncertainty. And Bitcoin is usually, and always, the first flush to remain neutral(cash) and positive(against a drawdown).
Best plays are always going to be asymmetric with limited invested capital, and plays you can do with a high ROIC and negate cost basis while still understanding cash's yield is not a HYSA but the cost of defense. That's a limited allocation to BTC, moderate to equity options and conservative real estate and more cash than most believe. Just move to a 7-10 yr+ horizon, it'll all be fine.
- 8moV.G JasonPro MemberInvestor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
Quote from @Henry Clark:
I went to a baseball game for 4 hours and was not watching the market. Lost $30,000.Quote from @Steve K.:
Quote from @Henry Clark:
@Steve K. realize this post was for kicks. But since I don’t follow E currency. This post is 9 months old. What would be your gain or loss since then? Then would you keep rolling or pull profits?
Hi Henry, Sorry I am just replying to this post!
Great idea to circle back and see what would have happened had I been serious about selling all of my real estate and going big on crypto this year, specifically the ones that the president said would be used for the strategic crypto reserve (Cardano/ADA, XRP, SOL and Ether).
At the time of the original post Cardano was $1 now it is $0.35, XRP was $3.11 now $1.91, Solano $240 now $126, Etherium was $3,634 now $2,980 and BTC was $105,000 now $88,000.
Meanwhile the real estate that I would have sold has done very well providing positive cashflow, tax benefits, mortgage principle pay-down from rents, and value appreciation.
I think you will appreciate this based on your awesome posts enjoying a nice quality of life... the main reason I don't really mess with crypto much is that I don't enjoy it. There is way too much volatility and too many uncontrollable variables/ unknowns/ risk/ stress and BS to sort through. I did some day-trading in my 20's and learned quickly that I could make good money but also that it wasn't a healthy lifestyle option for me. Crypto is like day-trading on steroids: the clock never stops on it, your positions can go to zero, scams are not uncommon, there is very little regulation or guardrails and when there is a steep decline when you want to pull out, your account can simply be frozen by an exchange as values tank and there is nothing you can do about it. I saw this happen to several friends who got hurt badly during the Terra (LUNA), FTX, Bitconnect, Mt. Gox etc. debacles.
I'm sure plenty of people made plenty of money on crypto this year, but I still prefer real estate personally.
Happy Holidays!
Had one stock lose 50%, then zero a week later. Made 19 positive trades and 1 negative and wiped out. Switched to REI.
Ill DM you an asset play. Low risk downside. Extreme upside from 5 different aspects converging. No money being made off of BP. Just killing time.That's how it always works. I always say be a slugger, not a batter. And don't diversify, concentrate on what you now and do extremely well.
You need to trade equities like you manage real estate. Lower your cost basis, manage all the greeks, follow the fundamentals. If you don't enjoy that, don't do it and simply be passive(index etfs only) like the KS guy. He's exactly that example.
- 9moV.G JasonPro MemberInvestor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
Not a fan of Saylor, but never know what'll happen to him.
With that said, can absolutely see more downside for BTC and ETH even after a 10% drawdown this morning.
Its just telling me US equities are next. Am watching MSFT & AMZN, in particular, those two looks trending wrong direction. To me that's going to be most interesting. META is already an issue.
NVIDIA is 12-20 days away(at current trend) to be cautious about to be on radar like those two.
- 9moV.G JasonPro MemberInvestor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
Carrying on the previous post. As of today, there's several mega cap stocks that are in a critical juncture of carrying down the indices.
To name a few, besides the ones I did above --meta, Amazon, MSFT, Nvidia-- which should be sufficient enough.1. Broadcom
2. TSMC
3. AMD
4. Goldman Sachs
5. Tesla
6. JPM
7. ASML
8. Palantir
This is 30-40% of the major holdings of SPY, QQQ, VTI. The gold and Bitcoin trade did the opposite of what I said; it's widened in the short term. It just means equities is next, and likely housing into 2026.
Crypto, equities, housing. I said this earlier in the thread. It's happened that way in 2025 too. Crypto in March, equities in April, housing in H2 25(seasonal or not). It'll happen at end of 25 into 26 same order likely.
What's the solution? If you have a long term horizon, DCA on the falling knife. Red days are green days mentally for you. It's opportunity. You'll love this, just like you loved April.
If you're trying to trade this. I'll be careful with what I say, but you do a small allocation initially to investigate; then buy on 2nd rally up. Capital efficiency is best via options, leave capital for rolling LEAPs. And mid term ITM calls, too. You can create some gamma squeezes to short callers if you're long the call then as things rally, buy underlying. Double win but avoid this paragraph if you're not experienced.
The other solution-- a massive Fed put. Like a .75-1bps rate cut. Fed will bail; long term investments will win. Short term, you're a trader. Prepared to get screwed if you don't know how to manage risk.
My advice is stick to long term; buy indexes and keep 5-7% to stocks you love.
Point of this post is to watch it and review just prior to Xmas.
- Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes9mo
I think your missing the bigger cyclical picture @V.G Jason
Pump - Cash - Puts - Gold
Every major market drop, which is eerily almost every 20yrs looking back, those who "magically" times it all just right followed a 4 part game plan over n over n over again.....
PUMP: This starts as a "recovery' market, and grasps to some new shiny thing. Today it's ai. Post dot-com it was a trans-national economy, the "new world order". Etc Etc.. The "PUMP" is just that, the MARKET inflating up.
CASH: This most commonly precedes the market crash by ~12-18 months. It's where everyone is patting selves on the back over epic gains, how "stocks only go up" and everyone's getting in on it; the bag-boy is trading between customers, cabbies giving tips on the next hot stock. And this is where Smart-$ is quietly exiting positions, reaping gains, NOT trying to time a top, getting liquid. Because they know, be it by insight or insider, they know what's coming.
PUTS: Now I say "Puts" not to define it is exactly put options but to define this is where Smart $ start's positioning leveraged bet's on the inevitable coming downturn, drop, crash, collapse. This may be default swap's, may actually be Put options, it can take any number of forms but it's all the same thing, positioning to profit from the drop itself.
GOLD: Yes, in this many are positioning into gold itself but it's more a term for ASSETS, namely inflation adjusting assets. This often start's in the last breath's before the drop, a bit during, and then it's a RUSH at and after the drop. Why? Because the inevitable response to the drop, crash, collapse...... STIMULOUS, which is headline code word for "Liquidity Injection". Liquidity Injection is inflation, 100%.
This cycle has played out over and over again throughout history. Yet for some reason here we are again, as it's playing out, and some are thinking inflation adjusting appreciating assets will for some reason deviate from all laws of math and devalue in it.
No, with 1,000% certainty NO they won't.
During COVID inflation creation many made this very wrong assumption they'd go down. I 4-times presented a "challenge" right here on BP to any/all who felt this to DM me and I will sign an option contract on ALL there performing properties. Be it 1 of 1,000 I'd take them ALL. I would give FULL market value on these. Call it me selling a quazi-Put Options on real estate, but I'd have call option powers as well.
0, a grand total of 0 were willing to put there property where there mouth was. 0.
All indicators are a MAJOR inflation even is looming just around the corner. Yes, it's almost certain a major down-turn in stock market will precede, and with that "recession". What most don't see is "never let a crisis go to waste".
If INFLATION is the plan, then one needs a facilitating causation.
Was invasion of Iraq not pre selected? And then a facilitating causation discovered, or better said created? 0 conspiracy theory here, all is open public record now. At time, yup, they called any a conspiracy theorist. And years later all evidence comes out, it was all planned from get-go.
There is no instance where USA survives our debt without inflation.
A market "crash" provides the perfect "need" for inflation.
In Dot-com home prices didn't tumble 30%. Nor S&L, nor any instance except in 2 market crashes ever in history, 2. In 1 there was no such thing as 30yr mortgages. Property was secured on very short term type financing. And isn't it funny how the 2nd time, it was again a commonality that property financing was yet again in very short-term financing vehicles.
There has never in the entire history been an instance of multi-decade LT financing imploding in mass #'s facilitating a crash in property values, not 1 ever. E-V-E-R.
'08' was NOT an instance of persons on yr12 of their fixed rate 30yr mortgage going "Uh-oh Gertrude, were going under, we gotta give it back to the bank".
No, it was No Doc, Stated Income, Interest Only, 3-5yr ARM's originated to persons who NEVER had financial capacity to perform on the note which is WHY they took out a "Liar Loan" and they rolled the dice on "Home prices only ever go UP" but not just go up, but up enough in just a handful of years for a future refi to kick the can.
It was a market wide, millions upon millions upon millions SPECULATING on appreciation to save their default from day 1 positions.
Does any of that exist today?
Oh HELL YES, but NOT in real estate.
In a little place we call Crypto and Wall Street.
Every Tom, Dick and Nancy has entered via the "cool" fun of "investing" via the popularized whatever, all chasing "stocks only go UP"......
Using margin at mind bending levels.
This will with 100% certainty be a monster who shows self in Crypto and Wall-Street. Of this I am certain.
We are without doubt in the "CASH" phase and, the "PUTS" phase. Smart $ around the globe is loading up on Gold as we speak at record levels.
I don't know exactly how far into the 12-18 months we are, but I believe it's in single digits left on the play clock.
Again, DONT try to time the top. So, I'm not. I am prepped for what inevitably comes next.
And it sure as heck isn't inflation adjusting appreciating assets deflating in value for any kind of duration. I'm too dang old, I've seen this move a time or 2 before. Or 4 or 5.
- 9moV.G JasonPro MemberInvestor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votesIf we wanted to do that, we go back to Bretton Woods era for big picture. I aim to keep it simple. But overall points, yes you're right about.
Quote from @James Hamling:
I think your missing the bigger cyclical picture @V.G Jason
Pump - Cash - Puts - Gold
Every major market drop, which is eerily almost every 20yrs looking back, those who "magically" times it all just right followed a 4 part game plan over n over n over again.....
PUMP: This starts as a "recovery' market, and grasps to some new shiny thing. Today it's ai. Post dot-com it was a trans-national economy, the "new world order". Etc Etc.. The "PUMP" is just that, the MARKET inflating up.
CASH: This most commonly precedes the market crash by ~12-18 months. It's where everyone is patting selves on the back over epic gains, how "stocks only go up" and everyone's getting in on it; the bag-boy is trading between customers, cabbies giving tips on the next hot stock. And this is where Smart-$ is quietly exiting positions, reaping gains, NOT trying to time a top, getting liquid. Because they know, be it by insight or insider, they know what's coming.
PUTS: Now I say "Puts" not to define it is exactly put options but to define this is where Smart $ start's positioning leveraged bet's on the inevitable coming downturn, drop, crash, collapse. This may be default swap's, may actually be Put options, it can take any number of forms but it's all the same thing, positioning to profit from the drop itself.
GOLD: Yes, in this many are positioning into gold itself but it's more a term for ASSETS, namely inflation adjusting assets. This often start's in the last breath's before the drop, a bit during, and then it's a RUSH at and after the drop. Why? Because the inevitable response to the drop, crash, collapse...... STIMULOUS, which is headline code word for "Liquidity Injection". Liquidity Injection is inflation, 100%.
This cycle has played out over and over again throughout history. Yet for some reason here we are again, as it's playing out, and some are thinking inflation adjusting appreciating assets will for some reason deviate from all laws of math and devalue in it.
No, with 1,000% certainty NO they won't.
During COVID inflation creation many made this very wrong assumption they'd go down. I 4-times presented a "challenge" right here on BP to any/all who felt this to DM me and I will sign an option contract on ALL there performing properties. Be it 1 of 1,000 I'd take them ALL. I would give FULL market value on these. Call it me selling a quazi-Put Options on real estate, but I'd have call option powers as well.
0, a grand total of 0 were willing to put there property where there mouth was. 0.
All indicators are a MAJOR inflation even is looming just around the corner. Yes, it's almost certain a major down-turn in stock market will precede, and with that "recession". What most don't see is "never let a crisis go to waste".
If INFLATION is the plan, then one needs a facilitating causation.
Was invasion of Iraq not pre selected? And then a facilitating causation discovered, or better said created? 0 conspiracy theory here, all is open public record now. At time, yup, they called any a conspiracy theorist. And years later all evidence comes out, it was all planned from get-go.
There is no instance where USA survives our debt without inflation.
A market "crash" provides the perfect "need" for inflation.
In Dot-com home prices didn't tumble 30%. Nor S&L, nor any instance except in 2 market crashes ever in history, 2. In 1 there was no such thing as 30yr mortgages. Property was secured on very short term type financing. And isn't it funny how the 2nd time, it was again a commonality that property financing was yet again in very short-term financing vehicles.
There has never in the entire history been an instance of multi-decade LT financing imploding in mass #'s facilitating a crash in property values, not 1 ever. E-V-E-R.
'08' was NOT an instance of persons on yr12 of their fixed rate 30yr mortgage going "Uh-oh Gertrude, were going under, we gotta give it back to the bank".
No, it was No Doc, Stated Income, Interest Only, 3-5yr ARM's originated to persons who NEVER had financial capacity to perform on the note which is WHY they took out a "Liar Loan" and they rolled the dice on "Home prices only ever go UP" but not just go up, but up enough in just a handful of years for a future refi to kick the can.
It was a market wide, millions upon millions upon millions SPECULATING on appreciation to save their default from day 1 positions.
Does any of that exist today?
Oh HELL YES, but NOT in real estate.
In a little place we call Crypto and Wall Street.
Every Tom, Dick and Nancy has entered via the "cool" fun of "investing" via the popularized whatever, all chasing "stocks only go UP"......
Using margin at mind bending levels.
This will with 100% certainty be a monster who shows self in Crypto and Wall-Street. Of this I am certain.
We are without doubt in the "CASH" phase and, the "PUTS" phase. Smart $ around the globe is loading up on Gold as we speak at record levels.
I don't know exactly how far into the 12-18 months we are, but I believe it's in single digits left on the play clock.
Again, DONT try to time the top. So, I'm not. I am prepped for what inevitably comes next.
And it sure as heck isn't inflation adjusting appreciating assets deflating in value for any kind of duration. I'm too dang old, I've seen this move a time or 2 before. Or 4 or 5.
I try to keep in the 3-6 month timeframe so folks can follow along. And hopefully convey in a manner that isn't too much. - Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes9mo
Quote from @V.G Jason:
If we wanted to do that, we go back to Bretton Woods era for big picture. I aim to keep it simple. But overall points, yes you're right about.Quote from @James Hamling:
I think your missing the bigger cyclical picture @V.G Jason
Pump - Cash - Puts - Gold
Every major market drop, which is eerily almost every 20yrs looking back, those who "magically" times it all just right followed a 4 part game plan over n over n over again.....
PUMP: This starts as a "recovery' market, and grasps to some new shiny thing. Today it's ai. Post dot-com it was a trans-national economy, the "new world order". Etc Etc.. The "PUMP" is just that, the MARKET inflating up.
CASH: This most commonly precedes the market crash by ~12-18 months. It's where everyone is patting selves on the back over epic gains, how "stocks only go up" and everyone's getting in on it; the bag-boy is trading between customers, cabbies giving tips on the next hot stock. And this is where Smart-$ is quietly exiting positions, reaping gains, NOT trying to time a top, getting liquid. Because they know, be it by insight or insider, they know what's coming.
PUTS: Now I say "Puts" not to define it is exactly put options but to define this is where Smart $ start's positioning leveraged bet's on the inevitable coming downturn, drop, crash, collapse. This may be default swap's, may actually be Put options, it can take any number of forms but it's all the same thing, positioning to profit from the drop itself.
GOLD: Yes, in this many are positioning into gold itself but it's more a term for ASSETS, namely inflation adjusting assets. This often start's in the last breath's before the drop, a bit during, and then it's a RUSH at and after the drop. Why? Because the inevitable response to the drop, crash, collapse...... STIMULOUS, which is headline code word for "Liquidity Injection". Liquidity Injection is inflation, 100%.
This cycle has played out over and over again throughout history. Yet for some reason here we are again, as it's playing out, and some are thinking inflation adjusting appreciating assets will for some reason deviate from all laws of math and devalue in it.
No, with 1,000% certainty NO they won't.
During COVID inflation creation many made this very wrong assumption they'd go down. I 4-times presented a "challenge" right here on BP to any/all who felt this to DM me and I will sign an option contract on ALL there performing properties. Be it 1 of 1,000 I'd take them ALL. I would give FULL market value on these. Call it me selling a quazi-Put Options on real estate, but I'd have call option powers as well.
0, a grand total of 0 were willing to put there property where there mouth was. 0.
All indicators are a MAJOR inflation even is looming just around the corner. Yes, it's almost certain a major down-turn in stock market will precede, and with that "recession". What most don't see is "never let a crisis go to waste".
If INFLATION is the plan, then one needs a facilitating causation.
Was invasion of Iraq not pre selected? And then a facilitating causation discovered, or better said created? 0 conspiracy theory here, all is open public record now. At time, yup, they called any a conspiracy theorist. And years later all evidence comes out, it was all planned from get-go.
There is no instance where USA survives our debt without inflation.
A market "crash" provides the perfect "need" for inflation.
In Dot-com home prices didn't tumble 30%. Nor S&L, nor any instance except in 2 market crashes ever in history, 2. In 1 there was no such thing as 30yr mortgages. Property was secured on very short term type financing. And isn't it funny how the 2nd time, it was again a commonality that property financing was yet again in very short-term financing vehicles.
There has never in the entire history been an instance of multi-decade LT financing imploding in mass #'s facilitating a crash in property values, not 1 ever. E-V-E-R.
'08' was NOT an instance of persons on yr12 of their fixed rate 30yr mortgage going "Uh-oh Gertrude, were going under, we gotta give it back to the bank".
No, it was No Doc, Stated Income, Interest Only, 3-5yr ARM's originated to persons who NEVER had financial capacity to perform on the note which is WHY they took out a "Liar Loan" and they rolled the dice on "Home prices only ever go UP" but not just go up, but up enough in just a handful of years for a future refi to kick the can.
It was a market wide, millions upon millions upon millions SPECULATING on appreciation to save their default from day 1 positions.
Does any of that exist today?
Oh HELL YES, but NOT in real estate.
In a little place we call Crypto and Wall Street.
Every Tom, Dick and Nancy has entered via the "cool" fun of "investing" via the popularized whatever, all chasing "stocks only go UP"......
Using margin at mind bending levels.
This will with 100% certainty be a monster who shows self in Crypto and Wall-Street. Of this I am certain.
We are without doubt in the "CASH" phase and, the "PUTS" phase. Smart $ around the globe is loading up on Gold as we speak at record levels.
I don't know exactly how far into the 12-18 months we are, but I believe it's in single digits left on the play clock.
Again, DONT try to time the top. So, I'm not. I am prepped for what inevitably comes next.
And it sure as heck isn't inflation adjusting appreciating assets deflating in value for any kind of duration. I'm too dang old, I've seen this move a time or 2 before. Or 4 or 5.
I try to keep in the 3-6 month timeframe so folks can follow along. And hopefully convey in a manner that isn't too much.The short-short version then:
Deflation has begun, which is why inflation to a multiple is quick coming, and quality assets is the "island".
- Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes9mo
Big BIG news, but gotta be an Econ and Finance nerd to have seen or any interest in it, or know it's impact.
Did you see @V.G Jason?
Burry officially declared he's "back". And if know Dr Burry you know almost everything is a double or even triple meaning, and saying he's back isn't just saying "oh hey, your gonna be hearing from me".....
Cassandra Unchained@michaeljburry·Nov 23
Feb 21, 2000: SF Chronicle says I’m short Amazon
Greenspan 2005: “bubble in home prices ..does not appear likely.”
Powell '25: “AI companies actually..are profitable..it's a different thing"
I doubted if I ever should come back.
I'm back. Please join me.--------------
Dr Burry has been swinging hay-makers recently since release of his short positions and media's blow-back. Declaring things an out-right roadmap of fraud.
Then Miran comes out with this nerdy holy-cow BRILLIANT roadmap of things.
With this most recent paper I'd say he's catapulted firmly into #1 spot for Fed Chair.
Pointing out the Fed can do a heck of a lot on it's own, with 0 need for Senate anything. And that they should, and need to just do it. Pointing out the laundry list of over regulation, how regulation to fix bad regulation is just bad-squared. That regulation crushes small business at benefit of big corp business. A lot of really smart stuff.
But then the big ones. The Fed getting it's fingers out of things it should not be into in the first place, COMPLETELY. Namely MBS. That the Fed not only bleed off MBS per Dec 1st schedule, but terminate, permanently, ever being a MBS buyer again and solely holding treasuries.
That's not a little change.
Then a series of really smart moves in banking regulation, securatization, that I won't bore with the details but end story, estimated to free up a few trillion in liquidity. Yes TRILLION with a T. Much of which pumps right into, you guessed it, treasuries.
Thus, the Gov debt bomb get's a nice big pail of cold water thrown on it's fuse to buy more time.
Cost of that time, INFLATION. But interesting part is he notes the inflation will be via banking sector not the Fed and thus "not their fault" in eyes of public, lol.
As I've said over n over again, ALL roads of mitigation, repair or address of the situation are all inflationary. All of them.
Except the 1 which is apocalyptic depreciation tail spin, which only costs, ya-know, the USD, and with that the Nation itself, no biggie, lol.
Ok ok, so technically there is theoretically a second way; a meteorite strikes the east coast or west coast and takes out 32 million people in 1 fell swoop.
WW III you say as #3? Nope, that's just a way to do inflation without the inflation being felt in the moment because of the literally destroying of the $ your inflation.... literally..... bombs bullets and what not, boom, that's $ blowing up. When the war ends is when the inflation is felt. During the war it's all pump n patriotism.
Summary:
Dr Burry is screaming from the hill top "It's all bull-s#it!" and new powers taking over Fed saying "Hey, I know how we can double the manure!".
Ohhhh 2026 is gonna be a fun one!
- 8moV.G JasonPro MemberInvestor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
BTC just peeked it's head over the 200 dma for the first time at the start of the new year. Got some life after the October 10th destruction and some tax loss harvesting. The question is does it stay here or not? I would think with MSTR still way, way behind it that if we don't see a gap up to $175 or $180 for MSTR in the next 5-7 trading sessions that BTC will still fail to find footing.
If it does, then it's a matter of about 6-8 weeks of a choppy ride up bearing any strong fundamental news to force liquidations again. I think we'll see the same happen in equities, lots of turbulence, some sideways action and then some up and to the right.
MSFT is at the inflection point; it's earnings report will either create new highs for indices or cause a little a correction in the market place. A part of me thinks it's both, before/after earnings. Space stocks have absolutely carried a lot of small cap momentum due to SpaceX's IPO expectation that is still buy the news right now, sell it after. Though some of these space companies seem to have an incredible moat, monopolistic structure, and vertical integration already forming. If there's any success in more than just launches this could be the new era of mega caps.
For BTC, been getting long the keys this entire consolidation period. Won't go into the details of the options structure, but the 200 dma crossing now calls for it's own plays. Just these plays alone can get a huge annual yield.
- Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes8mo
Quote from @V.G Jason:
BTC just peeked it's head over the 200 dma for the first time at the start of the new year. Got some life after the October 10th destruction and some tax loss harvesting. The question is does it stay here or not? I would think with MSTR still way, way behind it that if we don't see a gap up to $175 or $180 for MSTR in the next 5-7 trading sessions that BTC will still fail to find footing.
If it does, then it's a matter of about 6-8 weeks of a choppy ride up bearing any strong fundamental news to force liquidations again. I think we'll see the same happen in equities, lots of turbulence, some sideways action and then some up and to the right.
MSFT is at the inflection point; it's earnings report will either create new highs for indices or cause a little a correction in the market place. A part of me thinks it's both, before/after earnings. Space stocks have absolutely carried a lot of small cap momentum due to SpaceX's IPO expectation that is still buy the news right now, sell it after. Though some of these space companies seem to have an incredible moat, monopolistic structure, and vertical integration already forming. If there's any success in more than just launches this could be the new era of mega caps.
For BTC, been getting long the keys this entire consolidation period. Won't go into the details of the options structure, but the 200 dma crossing now calls for it's own plays. Just these plays alone can get a huge annual yield.
I see the bigger decision factor for BTC and MSTR being how the ride through a necessary next 2 decision points playing out:
(A) Liquidation after the rise. For those who have been holding, after suffering a dip lower than expected, for longer than expected, and have been crossing fingers for a recovery to allow an exit. Question is how many are seeking such out, at what price, and what % can be convinced to roll-back into a LT hold decision. MSTR's consistent dilution does not bode well for converting and holding such persons into things LT.
(B) If the recovery does not meet expectations. BTC has conditioned an expectancy of parabolic gains. If BTC rises to just under, or only meeting previous ATH's and trades sideways for a duration from there, it could very well set a stage for a perception that the hay-day's are over, and shift sentiment to one of exit before a decline, making for a self-fulfilling prophecy. And given historical conditioning, this could happen even with new ATH's if they are not of size enough to convince sentiment this is not a beginning of the end to BTC's parabolic rise.
Again, MSTR's dilution does not help in this as much sentiment is now to as one goes so does the other, and the dilution has changed MSTR's #'s where it will not hit same $ from same BTC level's anymore and that picture of things will certainly harm sentiment, but to what degree is unknown.
BTC's decline was a catalyst for MSTR's major decline, but next cycle could very possibly be the same in reverse order.
And the elephant in the room; when institutional investors feel sentiment that the "easy money" is over, and time to exit to focus back on time-tested positions vs a questionable LT outlook for crypto and BTC's position in crypto.
How that exit liquidity plays out.....
My "BlackSwan Nostradamus" is looking for Elon placing servers in orbit, self powered via solar thus removing grid issues, and with it Elon's launch of his own crypto to replace BTC and all others for that matter. And interestingly, being space based, it doesn't fall under any 1 nations controls now does it. Via Starlink it is very hard to all but impossible to block access to such. The ultimate decentralization action, space-based. And multi-planetary given the existing plans to ring Mars with similar.
- 7moV.G JasonPro MemberInvestor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
Quote from @V.G Jason:
BTC just peeked it's head over the 200 dma for the first time at the start of the new year. Got some life after the October 10th destruction and some tax loss harvesting. The question is does it stay here or not? I would think with MSTR still way, way behind it that if we don't see a gap up to $175 or $180 for MSTR in the next 5-7 trading sessions that BTC will still fail to find footing.
If it does, then it's a matter of about 6-8 weeks of a choppy ride up bearing any strong fundamental news to force liquidations again. I think we'll see the same happen in equities, lots of turbulence, some sideways action and then some up and to the right.
MSFT is at the inflection point; it's earnings report will either create new highs for indices or cause a little a correction in the market place. A part of me thinks it's both, before/after earnings. Space stocks have absolutely carried a lot of small cap momentum due to SpaceX's IPO expectation that is still buy the news right now, sell it after. Though some of these space companies seem to have an incredible moat, monopolistic structure, and vertical integration already forming. If there's any success in more than just launches this could be the new era of mega caps.
For BTC, been getting long the keys this entire consolidation period. Won't go into the details of the options structure, but the 200 dma crossing now calls for it's own plays. Just these plays alone can get a huge annual yield.
Regarding the bold....7 trading days later, see where we are at.
There's a lot of OI at the $175 and $170 strikes here for Jan 16 expiry. The max pain is at $147. I can see it rally into Friday, ,and then get trimmed as some profit taking happens on Monday or on Friday itself depending on exercising.
BTC just surpassed $95k. It's likely the 50 DMA will carry the curve and it'll do some sharp corrections back to it if it ever gets too far out without some fundamental catalyst. If that ends up being the case, it'll be in that 90-100 day mark until we see some sparks. The 200 dma high rolls off around then.
This is not advice, just commentary. For my biggest fans out there @Alan F. , I am very confident in my abilities. Trust the VG process. - 7moV.G JasonPro MemberInvestor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
Quote from @V.G Jason:
BTC just peeked it's head over the 200 dma for the first time at the start of the new year. Got some life after the October 10th destruction and some tax loss harvesting. The question is does it stay here or not? I would think with MSTR still way, way behind it that if we don't see a gap up to $175 or $180 for MSTR in the next 5-7 trading sessions that BTC will still fail to find footing.
If it does, then it's a matter of about 6-8 weeks of a choppy ride up bearing any strong fundamental news to force liquidations again. I think we'll see the same happen in equities, lots of turbulence, some sideways action and then some up and to the right.
MSFT is at the inflection point; it's earnings report will either create new highs for indices or cause a little a correction in the market place. A part of me thinks it's both, before/after earnings. Space stocks have absolutely carried a lot of small cap momentum due to SpaceX's IPO expectation that is still buy the news right now, sell it after. Though some of these space companies seem to have an incredible moat, monopolistic structure, and vertical integration already forming. If there's any success in more than just launches this could be the new era of mega caps.
For BTC, been getting long the keys this entire consolidation period. Won't go into the details of the options structure, but the 200 dma crossing now calls for it's own plays. Just these plays alone can get a huge annual yield.
Well, looks like MSFT caused that correction for today. BTC was flirting with it's 50 DMA until this correction and it'll be a sharp one down. We have Apple afterhours today, and Google up in the next week. All options state February will be neutral for the mega names, so it could be a consolidation month. Google is the only one framing up to be bearish, but that's selling a lot of the already factored in rally. Think it's still the best name to own long term next to ASML. We can track how that goes.
The most important to watch right now is MSTR's for February 5th. We will see how Saylor the player fairs. Hopefully for BTC holders, he's taken to a different side of this game.
- Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes7mo
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
BTC just peeked it's head over the 200 dma for the first time at the start of the new year. Got some life after the October 10th destruction and some tax loss harvesting. The question is does it stay here or not? I would think with MSTR still way, way behind it that if we don't see a gap up to $175 or $180 for MSTR in the next 5-7 trading sessions that BTC will still fail to find footing.
If it does, then it's a matter of about 6-8 weeks of a choppy ride up bearing any strong fundamental news to force liquidations again. I think we'll see the same happen in equities, lots of turbulence, some sideways action and then some up and to the right.
MSFT is at the inflection point; it's earnings report will either create new highs for indices or cause a little a correction in the market place. A part of me thinks it's both, before/after earnings. Space stocks have absolutely carried a lot of small cap momentum due to SpaceX's IPO expectation that is still buy the news right now, sell it after. Though some of these space companies seem to have an incredible moat, monopolistic structure, and vertical integration already forming. If there's any success in more than just launches this could be the new era of mega caps.
For BTC, been getting long the keys this entire consolidation period. Won't go into the details of the options structure, but the 200 dma crossing now calls for it's own plays. Just these plays alone can get a huge annual yield.
Well, looks like MSFT caused that correction for today. BTC was flirting with it's 50 DMA until this correction and it'll be a sharp one down. We have Apple afterhours today, and Google up in the next week. All options state February will be neutral for the mega names, so it could be a consolidation month. Google is the only one framing up to be bearish, but that's selling a lot of the already factored in rally. Think it's still the best name to own long term next to ASML. We can track how that goes.
The most important to watch right now is MSTR's for February 5th. We will see how Saylor the player fairs. Hopefully for BTC holders, he's taken to a different side of this game.
On BTC I believe the next 12-24hrs have a lot of interesting drama to play out.
Yesterday BTC tapped into 90k.
Interestingly enough, tomorrow a gargantuan amount of calls sold via institutional investors close, with 90k as there "max pain point".
The timing, massive sell-down starting as BTC taps max pain threshold..... It's a level of coincidence I am not buying as coincidental.
Some very big, powerful currents under the surface on this one. And I don't think we've seen Saylors response as of yet. Which if he's planning to out-Fox, I'd be holding off until last moment as well. Not only could price action get pressed that really shakes things up in a positive manner for MSTR, but it could grab a lot of headlines, and possibly be a catalyst MSTR has sorely needed to ignite a rally.
NVDA is showing amazing strength through all this, which I am taking as a signal of potential for a rubber-band effect.
We will see....
- 8moHenry ClarkPro MemberDeveloper · Member since 2020 · 4k+ posts · 4k+ votes
Shiny Object syndrome.
Crypto Unless it can move to daily electronic payment usage in the next year or two, it’s time has past. If it can move mainstream then it becomes just another cash source. Funds will move to next trade areas. Market has matured from a return standpoint. No market can keep getting, say 50% every year. Next shiny object.
AI will hit a wall after 2026. Low hanging fruit will have been taken or identified. Power infrastructure will not support, so standalone power generation will be added cost to implementation reducing projected returns. AI will move to valuation as a product versus a shiny object.
Commodities:
Short term gold and silver Q1 again in 2026.
Copper again, for next few years to support reshoring.Oil after Q1.
Strategic:
- baby formula, pharmaceuticals, rare earth mining, 3D manufacturing, caskets, medical supplies, STR retrenchment to permanent housing, BRICS, nuclear energy- solar and wind will have run their course in the U.S., Vietnam/Malaysia next 10 years as manufacturing moves from China high cost producer to low cost producers. Longterm debt on your part on cash flowing REI will be your best investment- US has to create $160T to refinance debt and Social programs devaluing your debt.
Am I right? It’s my money.- 8moV.G JasonPro MemberInvestor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
Quote from @Henry Clark:
Shiny Object syndrome.
Crypto Unless it can move to daily electronic payment usage in the next year or two, it’s time has past. If it can move mainstream then it becomes just another cash source. Funds will move to next trade areas. Market has matured from a return standpoint. No market can keep getting, say 50% every year. Next shiny object.
AI will hit a wall after 2026. Low hanging fruit will have been taken or identified. Power infrastructure will not support, so standalone power generation will be added cost to implementation reducing projected returns. AI will move to valuation as a product versus a shiny object.
Commodities:
Short term gold and silver Q1 again in 2026.
Copper again, for next few years to support reshoring.Oil after Q1.
Strategic:
- baby formula, pharmaceuticals, rare earth mining, 3D manufacturing, caskets, medical supplies, STR retrenchment to permanent housing, BRICS, nuclear energy- solar and wind will have run their course in the U.S., Vietnam/Malaysia next 10 years as manufacturing moves from China high cost producer to low cost producers. Longterm debt on your part on cash flowing REI will be your best investment- US has to create $160T to refinance debt and Social programs devaluing your debt.
Am I right? It’s my money.Same arguments for crypto everytime. If it's shiny object syndrome, there's a binary effect- to 0 or not. Cyclically speaking, BTC should be the worst performer of 2026. But you never know.
- 8moHenry ClarkPro MemberDeveloper · Member since 2020 · 4k+ posts · 4k+ votes
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @Henry Clark:
Shiny Object syndrome.
Crypto Unless it can move to daily electronic payment usage in the next year or two, it’s time has past. If it can move mainstream then it becomes just another cash source. Funds will move to next trade areas. Market has matured from a return standpoint. No market can keep getting, say 50% every year. Next shiny object.
AI will hit a wall after 2026. Low hanging fruit will have been taken or identified. Power infrastructure will not support, so standalone power generation will be added cost to implementation reducing projected returns. AI will move to valuation as a product versus a shiny object.
Commodities:
Short term gold and silver Q1 again in 2026.
Copper again, for next few years to support reshoring.Oil after Q1.
Strategic:
- baby formula, pharmaceuticals, rare earth mining, 3D manufacturing, caskets, medical supplies, STR retrenchment to permanent housing, BRICS, nuclear energy- solar and wind will have run their course in the U.S., Vietnam/Malaysia next 10 years as manufacturing moves from China high cost producer to low cost producers. Longterm debt on your part on cash flowing REI will be your best investment- US has to create $160T to refinance debt and Social programs devaluing your debt.
Am I right? It’s my money.Same arguments for crypto everytime. If it's shiny object syndrome, there's a binary effect- to 0 or not. Cyclically speaking, BTC should be the worst performer of 2026. But you never know.
Not Challenging Crypto as having been a great investment in the past, or even in the future. It's just not on our list.
A. Valuation- But going forward there are a lot of other asset classes and tools it has to compete against as its returns have matured. Just like I question the Mag 7 extreme P/E ratios, at some point Crypto has to answer the same valuation question.
B. Valuation- To me it needs to either mature into Day-to-Day usage which causes it to go to commodity style valuation. Enough transactions have to occur to develop a Valuation basis across countries. How much of Crypto XX for a gallon of milk by country? Even if Milk production costs and marketing were the same, how do you get a Crypto valuation across the world. Through daily usage.
C. Value creation- Or it has to move forward with a second stage of value creation similar to Gold based backing to show its worth versus traditional based Fiat currency.
D. It definitely has the strength of transcontinental movement and trading versus all other forms of Fiat, Gold, Silver.
I don't follow Crypto, but the major question becomes who is driving the Bus. Who is steering the above discussions. We are in other Asset classes. Actually, have a meeting in 2 weeks with our Financial Advisors to go over Asset allocation. Made a list for them as thought provokers. It's actually amazing the number of potential Shiny Objects in just my eyes, I came up with. Luckily 80% of our wealth is already locked in and dedicated, so we can't go to wild.
Good luck with Crypto investments.
- 8moHenry ClarkPro MemberDeveloper · Member since 2020 · 4k+ posts · 4k+ votes
I don't think it is a binary discussion. Yes, a magnitude up or down, but not to zero. Transcontinental funds movement carries a lot of value in today's world.
- 7moV.G JasonPro MemberInvestor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votesIt is a binary discussion. It's either a proof of a digital asset that really has no centralization or it's not. Countries, companies, jurisdictions can impose all types of obstructions and complexities to make this concept difficult. But it cannot actually defeat the premise of it.
Quote from @Henry Clark:
I don't think it is a binary discussion. Yes, a magnitude up or down, but not to zero. Transcontinental funds movement carries a lot of value in today's world.
The question does the network believe so? Clearly, it does right now. Granted, it may have some relief it needed to give back. But is the fundamental thesis unchanged? Think so given movements.
If that's the case, then you check adoption?
It's metcalfe's law and we're sitting with minute total adoption, yet institutional favor. That is just strong, strong tailwinds. It's like the quote.
"First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.".
Something could absolutely disrupt it, I don't know what in particular. If anything does, I don't think we know it right now. Meaning not quantum and not a lack of belief.
- Investor · Milwaukee - Mequon, WI · Member since 2010 · 5k+ posts · 7k+ votes7mo
Crypto still lives of the GRQ dream - get rich quick.
They say "it's just the beginning", just wait until the other 90% start buying crypto. If you are okay with wild volatility, go for it, but personally I prefer the slow and steady of real estate appreciation. Let's also not forget that crypto does not cash flow.
I don't have a hard logical argument to make, in the back of my mind I simply don't trust it. Silver and Gold have been good to me and call me old-fashioned, but I like the weight of it.
- 7moV.G JasonPro MemberInvestor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votesOld, tired excuse. It just reeks of a lack of understanding, and parroting the same nonsense. Nvidia, technically, is more volatile than Bitcoin as of recent. All Mag7 stocks against Bitcoin have tightened vol wise in the last 3-5 years(sub 7-10%). Gold is the least volatile, and Silver just saw a 1-day 25%+ drop.
Quote from @Marcus Auerbach:
Crypto still lives of the GRQ dream - get rich quick.
They say "it's just the beginning", just wait until the other 90% start buying crypto. If you are okay with wild volatility, go for it, but personally I prefer the slow and steady of real estate appreciation. Let's also not forget that crypto does not cash flow.
I don't have a hard logical argument to make, in the back of my mind I simply don't trust it. Silver and Gold have been good to me and call me old-fashioned, but I like the weight of it.
Claiming volatility is the reason you can't buy into it then mention Silver is just ridiculous. On a 1 year basis, Silver has been more volatile than Bitcoin. Just food for thought. Another thing is go buy your silver then physically sell it, you'll get destroyed on the spread.
Another reason the phys is a tough move and if we ever get into a real crisis that's actually stopping the world on a phys:fin squeeze we just saw-- I promise you the brokerages will be incentivized to keep it directional.
On another topic, the price action of ETH in the last hour of trading seems to be present a narrative of liquidation than stabilization for the entire session. Curious to see how OI changes towards the end of this week for this month's expiry on ETH & IBIT. 70 before 150 seems to be right on BTC, curious to see if it goes more south.
Trading action and monitoring things here. I am actively getting long, via options, on ETHA & IBIT. Prepared to get keys on BTC if we get to 70k or below, and have opened a pure spec play on Solana at $98.50 that I am going to get significantly larger. Next bid fill for that is $96 but I am not chasing. - Investor · Milwaukee - Mequon, WI · Member since 2010 · 5k+ posts · 7k+ votes7mo
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Old, tired excuse. It just reeks of a lack of understanding, and parroting the same nonsense. Nvidia, technically, is more volatile than Bitcoin as of recent. All Mag7 stocks against Bitcoin have tightened vol wise in the last 3-5 years(sub 7-10%). Gold is the least volatile, and Silver just saw a 1-day 25%+ drop.Quote from @Marcus Auerbach:
Crypto still lives of the GRQ dream - get rich quick.
They say "it's just the beginning", just wait until the other 90% start buying crypto. If you are okay with wild volatility, go for it, but personally I prefer the slow and steady of real estate appreciation. Let's also not forget that crypto does not cash flow.
I don't have a hard logical argument to make, in the back of my mind I simply don't trust it. Silver and Gold have been good to me and call me old-fashioned, but I like the weight of it.
Claiming volatility is the reason you can't buy into it then mention Silver is just ridiculous. On a 1 year basis, Silver has been more volatile than Bitcoin. Just food for thought. Another thing is go buy your silver then physically sell it, you'll get destroyed on the spread.
Another reason the phys is a tough move and if we ever get into a real crisis that's actually stopping the world on a phys:fin squeeze we just saw-- I promise you the brokerages will be incentivized to keep it directional.
On another topic, the price action of ETH in the last hour of trading seems to be present a narrative of liquidation than stabilization for the entire session. Curious to see how OI changes towards the end of this week for this month's expiry on ETH & IBIT. 70 before 150 seems to be right on BTC, curious to see if it goes more south.
Trading action and monitoring things here. I am actively getting long, via options, on ETHA & IBIT. Prepared to get keys on BTC if we get to 70k or below, and have opened a pure spec play on Solana at $98.50 that I am going to get significantly larger. Next bid fill for that is $96 but I am not chasing.Good for you @V.G Jason - harsh language, feels like I rubbed you the wrong way!?
- Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes7mo
As of recent @V.G Jason my charting accuracy has been redonculous.... Like that movie where they have the genius pills one can take.
That obscene charting accuracy, screams this is not a small thing and a major event unfolding under the surface. For me, the charts were very clear on it all, just few were listening. Again.
And what I have charted out would probably make you 💩.
BTC is now at, and twice has breached through, the most critical decision level I have on the chart. For what I have mapped out and am seeing, this is where it has to completely turn all this around (0 indicators of that happening) or it's a path into 60's, 50's, 30's.
60's is all but certain, 80%+ probability.
50's is likely, 65%+ probability.
30's, while a 50% probability rating may seem a nothing, it's not, that's a VERY big deal that it's not a single digit probability.
And at all these levels, there is other implications. Contagion. Which I am certain we ARE seeing contagion now.
And I'm not just parroting Dr Burry, look back, I've been saying this for weeks now and Burry just came out with that warning publicly.
With contagion, we are in a feed-back loop.
I believe we are at the beginning of this "doom-loop", chapter 2/3.
In the "Contagion broke loose" chapter.
Next is "When the world got sick" chapter, where the pain is spread far and wide.
After that is "When things broke" chapter; aka MSTR breaks, actuating another feed-back of other in assorted financial world being brought to, and past, the breaking point.
Institutions and others race to panic exit. Questions of how bad it will go rule the day.
Which brings the next chapter "scorched earth"...... When all the things are "burning".
Dr Burry is very right, this has all the potential of gigantic proportions. Way more then a normal risk-off type event.
As I write this BTC just lost hold of the 1st "lock" on this critical door blocking the doomscape scenario..... and is racing toward breaking the last and final lock to this door down.....
When see BTC 72k in coming hours, it's not a "buy the dip" it's a batten the hatches, sit back and watch as it all burns down......
- 7moV.G JasonPro MemberInvestor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
Quote from @James Hamling:
As of recent @V.G Jason my charting accuracy has been redonculous.... Like that movie where they have the genius pills one can take.
That obscene charting accuracy, screams this is not a small thing and a major event unfolding under the surface. For me, the charts were very clear on it all, just few were listening. Again.
And what I have charted out would probably make you 💩.
BTC is now at, and twice has breached through, the most critical decision level I have on the chart. For what I have mapped out and am seeing, this is where it has to completely turn all this around (0 indicators of that happening) or it's a path into 60's, 50's, 30's.
60's is all but certain, 80%+ probability.
50's is likely, 65%+ probability.
30's, while a 50% probability rating may seem a nothing, it's not, that's a VERY big deal that it's not a single digit probability.
And at all these levels, there is other implications. Contagion. Which I am certain we ARE seeing contagion now.
And I'm not just parroting Dr Burry, look back, I've been saying this for weeks now and Burry just came out with that warning publicly.
With contagion, we are in a feed-back loop.
I believe we are at the beginning of this "doom-loop", chapter 2/3.
In the "Contagion broke loose" chapter.
Next is "When the world got sick" chapter, where the pain is spread far and wide.
After that is "When things broke" chapter; aka MSTR breaks, actuating another feed-back of other in assorted financial world being brought to, and past, the breaking point.
Institutions and others race to panic exit. Questions of how bad it will go rule the day.
Which brings the next chapter "scorched earth"...... When all the things are "burning".
Dr Burry is very right, this has all the potential of gigantic proportions. Way more then a normal risk-off type event.
As I write this BTC just lost hold of the 1st "lock" on this critical door blocking the doomscape scenario..... and is racing toward breaking the last and final lock to this door down.....
When see BTC 72k in coming hours, it's not a "buy the dip" it's a batten the hatches, sit back and watch as it all burns down......
It's a rotational trade in the macro, and delever in the short to mid term. Keeping my eyes peeled on earnings tmo for MSTR and Google today.
Nothing more than I'd like to see Saylor the player under distress.
- Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes7mo
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
As of recent @V.G Jason my charting accuracy has been redonculous.... Like that movie where they have the genius pills one can take.
That obscene charting accuracy, screams this is not a small thing and a major event unfolding under the surface. For me, the charts were very clear on it all, just few were listening. Again.
And what I have charted out would probably make you 💩.
BTC is now at, and twice has breached through, the most critical decision level I have on the chart. For what I have mapped out and am seeing, this is where it has to completely turn all this around (0 indicators of that happening) or it's a path into 60's, 50's, 30's.
60's is all but certain, 80%+ probability.
50's is likely, 65%+ probability.
30's, while a 50% probability rating may seem a nothing, it's not, that's a VERY big deal that it's not a single digit probability.
And at all these levels, there is other implications. Contagion. Which I am certain we ARE seeing contagion now.
And I'm not just parroting Dr Burry, look back, I've been saying this for weeks now and Burry just came out with that warning publicly.
With contagion, we are in a feed-back loop.
I believe we are at the beginning of this "doom-loop", chapter 2/3.
In the "Contagion broke loose" chapter.
Next is "When the world got sick" chapter, where the pain is spread far and wide.
After that is "When things broke" chapter; aka MSTR breaks, actuating another feed-back of other in assorted financial world being brought to, and past, the breaking point.
Institutions and others race to panic exit. Questions of how bad it will go rule the day.
Which brings the next chapter "scorched earth"...... When all the things are "burning".
Dr Burry is very right, this has all the potential of gigantic proportions. Way more then a normal risk-off type event.
As I write this BTC just lost hold of the 1st "lock" on this critical door blocking the doomscape scenario..... and is racing toward breaking the last and final lock to this door down.....
When see BTC 72k in coming hours, it's not a "buy the dip" it's a batten the hatches, sit back and watch as it all burns down......
It's a rotational trade in the macro, and delever in the short to mid term. Keeping my eyes peeled on earnings tmo for MSTR and Google today.
Nothing more than I'd like to see Saylor the player under distress.
It's kind of ironic, the thing that's most punishing BTC is exactly the thing BTC acolytes long applauded as there generator of profit; Institutional Entry.
Because that cut from institutions, goes both ways.
Acquisition will drive price up, it did.
But for some reason nobody wants to consider how Institutional SELLING can just as strongly drive price straight down into the ground.
The neckline on the H&S has now broken, fully.
Why does that matter? Because it matters to institutional investors.
See institutional investors play things per a set of rules and guidelines. Standards of practice developed to protect and defend profits and capitol.
And this is a major one for them. By the book, probability of a major leg down is >70%. Just on breaking a neckline on a H&S.
Add in all the cross factors; ai went to mind-blowing ATH's, ai adoption flatlining, ai profitability in question yada-yada-yada.
All pointing to ai sector being overbought, which is 100% normal. Every major innovation sector has always, 100% of the time, experienced euphoric over-bought in early days. Every pro knows this and nobody has doubted it.
The million dollar question has been; where's the top??????
And that's what the prevailing game being played has been, who can touch the top.
All of this, across tech sector is now flashing in big giant neon lights "THE TOP WAS IN".
Which transitions question to where is "Fair Value".
Well, were talking pre-rev things for most part. So FMV is considered high as things move bullish, and low-LOW when bearish.
When signals become clear, as they are now live-time that the pendulum has swung too bearish, next comes FMV "corrections".
Why does that matter for BTC?
Again, because it matters for Institutions.
Risk-OFF!
BTC is at the threshold of an Institution route OUT of BTC.
Because consideration is now not wanting to get caught hot-potatoe. The moment any of the big boys are seen trimming, EVERYONE will start trimming.
Trimming will turn into dumping.
MSTR cracks will turn too fissures.
MSTR will get liquidity locked. Nobody will fend them another dime. That strategic USD reserve will be burning like a wild fire.
It's a feed-back loop and this is what Dr Burry sees playing out. He get's the lynch-pin theory of it all.
And we are 1, literally 1-domino away from it starting. ONE!
Can it all turn around this millimeter from deaths door? Sure, anything can happen.
But it's gonna take a freakin miracle.
AMD showed just how tense the situation is. Anything less then stellar perfection may be the straw that breaks it all. We are THAT close.
And any 1 actual "BAD" report, action, development..... 💥
I have ran and re-ran a statistical analysis with my ai on this multiple times per day now as it's moving. I am burning millions of tokens on this. The #'s keep getting worse. Most recent odd's of pulling up at this point, now under 32%.
60%+ odd's of a ☠️😺, >84% of resumption of sell-off after.
Remember, MSTR CEO said if mNAV falls below 1 they may start selling BTC.
Strategy (MSTR) currently has an mNAV Basic of0.764 and an mNAV Diluted of 0.970
Yup.......
- 7moV.G JasonPro MemberInvestor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
The floor was institutional adoption, the value is always the network effect. The whales, humpback and sharks(101 btc + addresses) have added in the last 90 days, and the sub 10 BTC addresses have trimmed. So not sure the institutional adoption theory is dead.
We've priced in perfection and are selling any news, and overselling(techncially) bad news. Equities are saying that pre and post earnings.
The first to go are the most liquid with the least present conviction which speaks to the shrimp wallets. Btc told us in October q4 earnings will be rough. Let's see what shakes for MSTR, and even Google. My most bullish stock in the last 12 months.
I guess Saylor speaks up tomorrow? They have enough cash for debt until 2028 maturities. If anyone's holding the bag, it's the strc, strk, etc--those products they were selling.
- 7moV.G JasonPro MemberInvestor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
For Feb 6, 2026 expiry
MSTR max pain is $149, currently trading $128 but got down to 121ish I believe. Put/call ratio .79. Which is neutral but I'd say bearish cause the put vol last 3 days has inverted the OI ratio.
IBIT max pain is $49, currently trading $43 but got down to $41 I believe. Put/call ratio .31. very bullish.
MSTR earnings tmo after market close! I'll update the Feb 20 one after this. Down the chain, looks like Feb 27 has been the most bearish but let's see if that changes.
- Lender · Charlotte, NC · Member since 2016 · 371 posts · 172 votes7mo
Any investment $ now should be hard assets, forget specs, the rental garbage and most of all vapor (stocks, bonds, crypto garbage). You either buy land somewhere out in the mountains that you can dwell on and metals, silver being my metal of choice.
I started warning on this platform in spring 2020. We are in uncharted waters now. Too many ******** fads today including real estate crap like air bnb. Wages ARE NOT keeping up with inflation.
Protect your wealth
- 7moV.G JasonPro MemberInvestor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
Quote from @Paul Sofia:
Any investment $ now should be hard assets, forget specs, the rental garbage and most of all vapor (stocks, bonds, crypto garbage). You either buy land somewhere out in the mountains that you can dwell on and metals, silver being my metal of choice.
I started warning on this platform in spring 2020. We are in uncharted waters now. Too many ******** fads today including real estate crap like air bnb. Wages ARE NOT keeping up with inflation.
Protect your wealth
Buying land in the mountains isn't achievable for 99% of folks. So the message can't hit.
If anything, the future will require folks to arbitrage emerging markets/international living for part time annually to afford the USA most of the time.
Metals, like anything even Bitcoin, are only as good as the ability to sell it via the network. Anyone who tried to go sell phys silver at a shop last week learned the hard way. It's an incredibly difficult market to exit. And you can't travel with pounds & ounces of silver without being confiscated.
- Lender · Charlotte, NC · Member since 2016 · 371 posts · 172 votes7mo
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @Paul Sofia:
Any investment $ now should be hard assets, forget specs, the rental garbage and most of all vapor (stocks, bonds, crypto garbage). You either buy land somewhere out in the mountains that you can dwell on and metals, silver being my metal of choice.
I started warning on this platform in spring 2020. We are in uncharted waters now. Too many ******** fads today including real estate crap like air bnb. Wages ARE NOT keeping up with inflation.
Protect your wealth
Buying land in the mountains isn't achievable for 99% of folks. So the message can't hit.
If anything, the future will require folks to arbitrage emerging markets/international living for part time annually to afford the USA most of the time.
Metals, like anything even Bitcoin, are only as good as the ability to sell it via the network. Anyone who tried to go sell phys silver at a shop last week learned the hard way. It's an incredibly difficult market to exit. And you can't travel with pounds & ounces of silver without being confiscated.
Keep chasing the vapor then. Most everybody can't even go a week without going to the grocery store. They're ushering in the new digital currency via NWO. I ain't participating....enjoy your smart cities
- 7moV.G JasonPro MemberInvestor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
Quote from @Paul Sofia:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @Paul Sofia:
Any investment $ now should be hard assets, forget specs, the rental garbage and most of all vapor (stocks, bonds, crypto garbage). You either buy land somewhere out in the mountains that you can dwell on and metals, silver being my metal of choice.
I started warning on this platform in spring 2020. We are in uncharted waters now. Too many ******** fads today including real estate crap like air bnb. Wages ARE NOT keeping up with inflation.
Protect your wealth
Buying land in the mountains isn't achievable for 99% of folks. So the message can't hit.
If anything, the future will require folks to arbitrage emerging markets/international living for part time annually to afford the USA most of the time.
Metals, like anything even Bitcoin, are only as good as the ability to sell it via the network. Anyone who tried to go sell phys silver at a shop last week learned the hard way. It's an incredibly difficult market to exit. And you can't travel with pounds & ounces of silver without being confiscated.
Keep chasing the vapor then. Most everybody can't even go a week without going to the grocery store. They're ushering in the new digital currency via NWO. I ain't participating....enjoy your smart cities
You missed the point. Enjoy the devil's metal. Silver's deviation from copper and crude were tell-tales.
- Lender · Charlotte, NC · Member since 2016 · 371 posts · 172 votes7mo
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @Paul Sofia:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @Paul Sofia:
Any investment $ now should be hard assets, forget specs, the rental garbage and most of all vapor (stocks, bonds, crypto garbage). You either buy land somewhere out in the mountains that you can dwell on and metals, silver being my metal of choice.
I started warning on this platform in spring 2020. We are in uncharted waters now. Too many ******** fads today including real estate crap like air bnb. Wages ARE NOT keeping up with inflation.
Protect your wealth
Buying land in the mountains isn't achievable for 99% of folks. So the message can't hit.
If anything, the future will require folks to arbitrage emerging markets/international living for part time annually to afford the USA most of the time.
Metals, like anything even Bitcoin, are only as good as the ability to sell it via the network. Anyone who tried to go sell phys silver at a shop last week learned the hard way. It's an incredibly difficult market to exit. And you can't travel with pounds & ounces of silver without being confiscated.
Keep chasing the vapor then. Most everybody can't even go a week without going to the grocery store. They're ushering in the new digital currency via NWO. I ain't participating....enjoy your smart cities
You missed the point. Enjoy the devil's metal. Silver's deviation from copper and crude were tell-tales.
Enjoy chasing fiat. Proverbs 23:9.......bye bye
- 7moV.G JasonPro MemberInvestor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
We have 21% of the S&P weight reporting in the next 4 weeks
Amazon tonight, Lin, Walmarta, and Nvidia later along with BerkB & Broadcom. The algos are 100% de-risk the news in almost every set up. I'm very curious to what they do with Nvidia & Broadcom.
Most stocks are facing volatility crises not faced since the Dot com crash. For example, BSX faced 17% drawdown yesterday on earnings guidance. That's not normal at all, those are anomalous events that may pop up regularly in 2026 earnings. Stay tuned on that. This level of volatility in the markets is speaking mass fear.
Cyclically speaking, it's the deflation before the inflation. For REI'ers, some if not most have been showing this. It may hit harder this year without any gov intervention. It's also cryptos then equities, and rarely but possibly RE.
Technically speaking, HOOD and BSX are falling knives but very good long term holds if they settle in this range. It'll likely take BSX longer to get out of the technical formation, simply cause Hood has more tech vol.
Another BTC proxy has it's earnings today, that being IREN.
Taking a strictly spec play on Solana. 20% of the coverage here at a $94 VWAP. Next fill is for 10% at $88, then $81. After that 20% at $69. Then we hold and watch, likely bottom feed. This is nothing but pure gambling, I don't have iron first holding view of SOL. This is simply a buy the exhaustion, sell the rally(if it ever happens) trade.
- 7moV.G JasonPro MemberInvestor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
Quote from @V.G Jason:
We have 21% of the S&P weight reporting in the next 4 weeks
Amazon tonight, Lin, Walmarta, and Nvidia later along with BerkB & Broadcom. The algos are 100% de-risk the news in almost every set up. I'm very curious to what they do with Nvidia & Broadcom.
Most stocks are facing volatility crises not faced since the Dot com crash. For example, BSX faced 17% drawdown yesterday on earnings guidance. That's not normal at all, those are anomalous events that may pop up regularly in 2026 earnings. Stay tuned on that. This level of volatility in the markets is speaking mass fear.
Cyclically speaking, it's the deflation before the inflation. For REI'ers, some if not most have been showing this. It may hit harder this year without any gov intervention. It's also cryptos then equities, and rarely but possibly RE.
Technically speaking, HOOD and BSX are falling knives but very good long term holds if they settle in this range. It'll likely take BSX longer to get out of the technical formation, simply cause Hood has more tech vol.
Another BTC proxy has it's earnings today, that being IREN.
Taking a strictly spec play on Solana. 20% of the coverage here at a $94 VWAP. Next fill is for 10% at $88, then $81. After that 20% at $69. Then we hold and watch, likely bottom feed. This is nothing but pure gambling, I don't have iron first holding view of SOL. This is simply a buy the exhaustion, sell the rally(if it ever happens) trade.
Just to touch on the NVIDIA point some. We're about 3 weeks away from earnings with a looming death cross formation-- the 50 DMA is $184, the 200DMA is $169. Ticker is at $171.
What does that mean? It means the SPY will face headwinds; SPY is 7% NVIDIA. It means QQQ faces headwinds; QQQ is 8.5% NVIDIA.
Feb 20 max pain is $180, March 20 max pain is $160. Where's this going? Look at all the major expiries max pain, as of today:
Feb 20- $180
March 20-$160
June 18- $140
Sep 18-$165
Dec 18-$96
Jan 15-$145Just some info. This trend means NVIDIA is (very) bearish, catches a little high then faces end of year tax-loss harvesting pressure. People trade these as forwards, so this all subject to change but an incredibly good gauge of how market makers are shaping up.
It's an excellent pulse of the market. SPY sort of coincides with this, as the bearish stance is in Q2 times. And Dec ends slightly down on the year.
- 7moSteve K.Realtor · Boulder, CO · Member since 2016 · 3k+ posts · 5k+ votesOP
BTC and most cryptos down to 2024 levels now. BTC down under 70,000 which I expect will trigger institutional sell-off. My crypto bro friends all say to buy more, DCA every day. Seems like pure gambling to me. Where is the floor here? 40,000 because that’s where it stops making sense to mine it these days? The original post of this thread was about Trump causing a crypto revolution and making USA the leader in crypto. I haven’t heard much from him lately on it, other than that he may have made 1.5 billion on his crypto assets last year. Maybe he meant he was in favor of crypto but only his own crypto? I’m guessing Eric is in his ear asking for a bailout but how does the US gov bail out crypto? Interesting times.
- 7moV.G JasonPro MemberInvestor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
Quote from @Steve K.:
BTC and most cryptos down to 2024 levels now. BTC down under 70,000 which I expect will trigger institutional sell-off. My crypto bro friends all say to buy more, DCA every day. Seems like pure gambling to me. Where is the floor here? 40,000 because that’s where it stops making sense to mine it these days? The original post of this thread was about Trump causing a crypto revolution and making USA the leader in crypto. I haven’t heard much from him lately on it, other than that he may have made 1.5 billion on his crypto assets last year. Maybe he meant he was in favor of crypto but only his own crypto? I’m guessing Eric is in his ear asking for a bailout but how does the US gov bail out crypto? Interesting times.
Institutional started the selling the earliest. They put the GLD/BTC trade on. Will they sell more, sure. But just think about this as a fund manager.
If you're pricing in uncertainty in equities, Bitcoin sells first. If you're pricing in uncertainty in yields, Bitcoin sells first. If you're suspect of any asset class even golds rally, you sell Bitcoin first. It's not even 20 years old. Most funds have to speak to investors, and they can't fully cross that line...yet.
It's the liquidity pulse, and the biggest pinch is a smaller fed balance sheet. Or at least projected to be, BTC will face the strongest pinch but look around almost all equities are. SLV is on the verge of another 15%+ daily correction in less than 1 week and wiping out YTD gains. Did anyone see this?
However, if you take a term look and said BTC is at $70k. Is it over? It seems a bit outrageous. It's a deflationary pressure prior to inflationary. Believe James or someone else mentioned it early. It'll test your balls some but I'm older than dirt & have been through this. And retired (way) too early cause of nailing it.
Bessent already pushed against the idea of a "bailout". We just need dovish news and an actual liquidity opener. That takes quite a bit of time. They can talk up a bill for a little tailwind, fundamentally though it needs to be something bigger. - 7moSteve K.Realtor · Boulder, CO · Member since 2016 · 3k+ posts · 5k+ votesOPI know people have been calling for this, the 4 year cycle and all. Seems like a sharper decline than previous bear markets. I expect the next ATH to be less dramatic than previous bull markets. Maybe down to 40k at the end of this year then up to 150k sometime in 2027-8? I’m completely out right now. Might jump back in and follow my DCA friends advice if it gets below 50k. Easy money seems to be over though, not messing with anything besides play money here. Alt coins are looking bleak.
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @Steve K.:
BTC and most cryptos down to 2024 levels now. BTC down under 70,000 which I expect will trigger institutional sell-off. My crypto bro friends all say to buy more, DCA every day. Seems like pure gambling to me. Where is the floor here? 40,000 because that’s where it stops making sense to mine it these days? The original post of this thread was about Trump causing a crypto revolution and making USA the leader in crypto. I haven’t heard much from him lately on it, other than that he may have made 1.5 billion on his crypto assets last year. Maybe he meant he was in favor of crypto but only his own crypto? I’m guessing Eric is in his ear asking for a bailout but how does the US gov bail out crypto? Interesting times.
Institutional started the selling the earliest. They put the GLD/BTC trade on. Will they sell more, sure. But just think about this as a fund manager.
If you're pricing in uncertainty in equities, Bitcoin sells first. If you're pricing in uncertainty in yields, Bitcoin sells first. If you're suspect of any asset class even golds rally, you sell Bitcoin first. It's not even 20 years old. Most funds have to speak to investors, and they can't fully cross that line...yet.
It's the liquidity pulse, and the biggest pinch is a smaller fed balance sheet. Or at least projected to be, BTC will face the strongest pinch but look around almost all equities are. SLV is on the verge of another 15%+ daily correction in less than 1 week and wiping out YTD gains. Did anyone see this?
However, if you take a term look and said BTC is at $70k. Is it over? It seems a bit outrageous. It's a deflationary pressure prior to inflationary. Believe James or someone else mentioned it early. It'll test your balls some but I'm older than dirt & have been through this. And retired (way) too early cause of nailing it.
Bessent already pushed against the idea of a "bailout". We just need dovish news and an actual liquidity opener. That takes quite a bit of time. They can talk up a bill for a little tailwind, fundamentally though it needs to be something bigger. - 7moV.G JasonPro MemberInvestor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
Quote from @Steve K.:
I know people have been calling for this, the 4 year cycle and all. Seems like a sharper decline than previous bear markets. I expect the next ATH to be less dramatic than previous bull markets. Maybe down to 40k at the end of this year then up to 150k sometime in 2027-8? I’m completely out right now. Might jump back in and follow my DCA friends advice if it gets below 50k. Easy money seems to be over though, not messing with anything besides play money here. Alt coins are looking bleak.Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @Steve K.:
BTC and most cryptos down to 2024 levels now. BTC down under 70,000 which I expect will trigger institutional sell-off. My crypto bro friends all say to buy more, DCA every day. Seems like pure gambling to me. Where is the floor here? 40,000 because that’s where it stops making sense to mine it these days? The original post of this thread was about Trump causing a crypto revolution and making USA the leader in crypto. I haven’t heard much from him lately on it, other than that he may have made 1.5 billion on his crypto assets last year. Maybe he meant he was in favor of crypto but only his own crypto? I’m guessing Eric is in his ear asking for a bailout but how does the US gov bail out crypto? Interesting times.
Institutional started the selling the earliest. They put the GLD/BTC trade on. Will they sell more, sure. But just think about this as a fund manager.
If you're pricing in uncertainty in equities, Bitcoin sells first. If you're pricing in uncertainty in yields, Bitcoin sells first. If you're suspect of any asset class even golds rally, you sell Bitcoin first. It's not even 20 years old. Most funds have to speak to investors, and they can't fully cross that line...yet.
It's the liquidity pulse, and the biggest pinch is a smaller fed balance sheet. Or at least projected to be, BTC will face the strongest pinch but look around almost all equities are. SLV is on the verge of another 15%+ daily correction in less than 1 week and wiping out YTD gains. Did anyone see this?
However, if you take a term look and said BTC is at $70k. Is it over? It seems a bit outrageous. It's a deflationary pressure prior to inflationary. Believe James or someone else mentioned it early. It'll test your balls some but I'm older than dirt & have been through this. And retired (way) too early cause of nailing it.
Bessent already pushed against the idea of a "bailout". We just need dovish news and an actual liquidity opener. That takes quite a bit of time. They can talk up a bill for a little tailwind, fundamentally though it needs to be something bigger.No one can tell. The cycle would tell you 2026 is a bear one for BTC. How far it goes nobody knows. I still fundamentally believe it's binary trade for BTC.
No market is easy money on the short term. If you're trading the vol, it's immensely difficult. It's always best to marry it.
- 7moSteve K.Realtor · Boulder, CO · Member since 2016 · 3k+ posts · 5k+ votesOP
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @Steve K.:
I know people have been calling for this, the 4 year cycle and all. Seems like a sharper decline than previous bear markets. I expect the next ATH to be less dramatic than previous bull markets. Maybe down to 40k at the end of this year then up to 150k sometime in 2027-8? I’m completely out right now. Might jump back in and follow my DCA friends advice if it gets below 50k. Easy money seems to be over though, not messing with anything besides play money here. Alt coins are looking bleak.Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @Steve K.:
BTC and most cryptos down to 2024 levels now. BTC down under 70,000 which I expect will trigger institutional sell-off. My crypto bro friends all say to buy more, DCA every day. Seems like pure gambling to me. Where is the floor here? 40,000 because that’s where it stops making sense to mine it these days? The original post of this thread was about Trump causing a crypto revolution and making USA the leader in crypto. I haven’t heard much from him lately on it, other than that he may have made 1.5 billion on his crypto assets last year. Maybe he meant he was in favor of crypto but only his own crypto? I’m guessing Eric is in his ear asking for a bailout but how does the US gov bail out crypto? Interesting times.
Institutional started the selling the earliest. They put the GLD/BTC trade on. Will they sell more, sure. But just think about this as a fund manager.
If you're pricing in uncertainty in equities, Bitcoin sells first. If you're pricing in uncertainty in yields, Bitcoin sells first. If you're suspect of any asset class even golds rally, you sell Bitcoin first. It's not even 20 years old. Most funds have to speak to investors, and they can't fully cross that line...yet.
It's the liquidity pulse, and the biggest pinch is a smaller fed balance sheet. Or at least projected to be, BTC will face the strongest pinch but look around almost all equities are. SLV is on the verge of another 15%+ daily correction in less than 1 week and wiping out YTD gains. Did anyone see this?
However, if you take a term look and said BTC is at $70k. Is it over? It seems a bit outrageous. It's a deflationary pressure prior to inflationary. Believe James or someone else mentioned it early. It'll test your balls some but I'm older than dirt & have been through this. And retired (way) too early cause of nailing it.
Bessent already pushed against the idea of a "bailout". We just need dovish news and an actual liquidity opener. That takes quite a bit of time. They can talk up a bill for a little tailwind, fundamentally though it needs to be something bigger.No one can tell. The cycle would tell you 2026 is a bear one for BTC. How far it goes nobody knows. I still fundamentally believe it's binary trade for BTC.
No market is easy money on the short term. If you're trading the vol, it's immensely difficult. It's always best to marry it.
I agree that no one can tell (except maybe the whales a little bit, if we want to get conspiratorial, or centralized coins that supposedly can be manipulated by automated bots if we want to go down that rabbit hole...). It's fun to speculate though. I did well early on but man I have to say my mental health does better when I'm fully divested. BTC at $40k would entice me to jump back in. Me an everyone else. Will be interesting to see if it goes there.
- 7moV.G JasonPro MemberInvestor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votesThe paradox of 40k means it's another 40-50% drop. If anything, it'd give you less conviction to go in then.
Quote from @Steve K.:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @Steve K.:
I know people have been calling for this, the 4 year cycle and all. Seems like a sharper decline than previous bear markets. I expect the next ATH to be less dramatic than previous bull markets. Maybe down to 40k at the end of this year then up to 150k sometime in 2027-8? I’m completely out right now. Might jump back in and follow my DCA friends advice if it gets below 50k. Easy money seems to be over though, not messing with anything besides play money here. Alt coins are looking bleak.Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @Steve K.:
BTC and most cryptos down to 2024 levels now. BTC down under 70,000 which I expect will trigger institutional sell-off. My crypto bro friends all say to buy more, DCA every day. Seems like pure gambling to me. Where is the floor here? 40,000 because that’s where it stops making sense to mine it these days? The original post of this thread was about Trump causing a crypto revolution and making USA the leader in crypto. I haven’t heard much from him lately on it, other than that he may have made 1.5 billion on his crypto assets last year. Maybe he meant he was in favor of crypto but only his own crypto? I’m guessing Eric is in his ear asking for a bailout but how does the US gov bail out crypto? Interesting times.
Institutional started the selling the earliest. They put the GLD/BTC trade on. Will they sell more, sure. But just think about this as a fund manager.
If you're pricing in uncertainty in equities, Bitcoin sells first. If you're pricing in uncertainty in yields, Bitcoin sells first. If you're suspect of any asset class even golds rally, you sell Bitcoin first. It's not even 20 years old. Most funds have to speak to investors, and they can't fully cross that line...yet.
It's the liquidity pulse, and the biggest pinch is a smaller fed balance sheet. Or at least projected to be, BTC will face the strongest pinch but look around almost all equities are. SLV is on the verge of another 15%+ daily correction in less than 1 week and wiping out YTD gains. Did anyone see this?
However, if you take a term look and said BTC is at $70k. Is it over? It seems a bit outrageous. It's a deflationary pressure prior to inflationary. Believe James or someone else mentioned it early. It'll test your balls some but I'm older than dirt & have been through this. And retired (way) too early cause of nailing it.
Bessent already pushed against the idea of a "bailout". We just need dovish news and an actual liquidity opener. That takes quite a bit of time. They can talk up a bill for a little tailwind, fundamentally though it needs to be something bigger.No one can tell. The cycle would tell you 2026 is a bear one for BTC. How far it goes nobody knows. I still fundamentally believe it's binary trade for BTC.
No market is easy money on the short term. If you're trading the vol, it's immensely difficult. It's always best to marry it.
I agree that no one can tell (except maybe the whales a little bit, if we want to get conspiratorial, or centralized coins that supposedly can be manipulated by automated bots if we want to go down that rabbit hole...). It's fun to speculate though. I did well early on but man I have to say my mental health does better when I'm fully divested. BTC at $40k would entice me to jump back in. Me an everyone else. Will be interesting to see if it goes there.
It's almost all emotional.
- 7moSteve K.Realtor · Boulder, CO · Member since 2016 · 3k+ posts · 5k+ votesOP
I've been wondering why our current administration has been mostly quiet on crypto lately, after going from loudly calling it a scam to even more loudly being super gung-ho on crypto during the election... Reading up on the World Liberty Financial/ UAE deal now. Emirates invest $500M into Trump family crypto company WLFI for a 49% share (a terrible deal for them by all accounts) then in a "completely unrelated" deal get our closely guarded AI chips despite the huge national security risk created by giving them this technology... essentially just using crypto to hide a blatant bribe and selling off our national secrets that protect us from China for his own personal profit... not to mention the coincidence that the UAE also invested $2B into Binance around the same time that Trump pardoned Binance founder and former CEO Changpeng Zhao. Trump stated he didn't even know who the guy was. Why would he pardon somebody if he doesn't know who he is? The UAE just happened to use the Trump family crypto company WLFI's USD1 stablecoins to make the transaction. Nothing to see here.
- 7moV.G JasonPro MemberInvestor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
Quote from @Steve K.:
I've been wondering why our current administration has been mostly quiet on crypto lately, after going from loudly calling it a scam to even more loudly being super gung-ho on crypto during the election... Reading up on the World Liberty Financial/ UAE deal now. Emirates invest $500M into Trump family crypto company WLFI for a 49% share (a terrible deal for them by all accounts) then in a "completely unrelated" deal get our closely guarded AI chips despite the huge national security risk created by giving them this technology... essentially just using crypto to hide a blatant bribe and selling off our national secrets that protect us from China for his own personal profit... not to mention the coincidence that the UAE also invested $2B into Binance around the same time that Trump pardoned Binance founder and former CEO Changpeng Zhao. Trump stated he didn't even know who the guy was. Why would he pardon somebody if he doesn't know who he is? The UAE just happened to use the Trump family crypto company WLFI's USD1 stablecoins to make the transaction. Nothing to see here.
Unfortunately, none of those setups made sense. But given this administration, that makes perfect sense.
Never doubt the TACO trade. It'll show up if the major indices get wrecked. We're still a bit aways from that. I'm waiting for a Friday and/or Sunday news arbritrage.
Join the conversationCreate a free account to reply, vote on answers and follow this thread.