300k average profit on a flip - is that real?

Question

I am trying to learn and understand... someone told me that its not just size of the home or level of the flip that determines profit, and that in some markets, what is considered a typical profit is 300k based on the 70% ARV formula. Is this true? Is anyone flipping in a market where this is "average"?  I kinda get it if 4 and 5 bedroom properties are going for 1.5 million in that market but... thats just math wondering what reality is?

Mark Cruse · Answer

You have to be very careful in who you listen to. Don't ignore people unless they have proven to be an utter incompetent fool, but in general just listen. As time goes on, if you talk to enough people, you will understand who has valid perspectives. Even on here, I hear some of the most azz backwards advice with many alluding to things as being imposable where I know several people who do it. In terms of 300k profit being typical. My advice would be is to talk to multiple investors who have real world, actual success-based experience in flipping over a sustained period. Evaluate how many would EVER tell you 300k is the typical return. Let me know how that works out. On here just last week, someone told everyone that all tenants hate their landlords so there was really no need to provide any level of adequate or decent levels of respect or service. Again, you have to be careful but over time you will understand who you should and should not listen to.

Chris Seveney · Answer

agree with russell, first you are not gonna find a property at 70% ARV anywhere near DC (whether NOVA or MoCo or other parts of MD). So making $300k, of course someone probably can say they did it but its not going to be the norm, especially for someone with little to no experience.

Jay Hinrichs · Answer

I think in very specific markets this is doable..  SF penninsula where average sales prices are 2 to 4 mil.  that would only be a 10% profit on gross..

Prime LA Beverly hills  Bel air  Prime orange county anything on the ocean. 300k would be average I suspect .. Keep in mind though those types of project are not 90 day flips

in a 500 to 600k market.  New builds in the 2 mil plus this would be average other wise you would never do it.. I have hit 250 to 275k this year on new builds that I did at 850 to 1 mil..

Matthew Paul · Answer

Is a $300K profit on a flip possible ?  It sure is . Is it probable ?  Highly unlikely .

Just remember there are less people that can afford the 1 million dollar plus houses than can afford the $300 to $400 thousand dollar houses . There is less risk involved in the cheaper properties . Sure you could hit a grand slam , once or twice in your life , but constant base hits bring in the same amount of runs on a steady basis

Bruce Lynn · Answer

Average? Typical?  I doubt it.  Possible...perhaps.  However I would say you want to be pretty seasoned and have a lot of cash and experience to do these.  That's not first time flipper project.  You need to know your market backwards and forwards.  Know what people will pay for and have excellent trades and suppliers.  These are probably not 3 month flips, but 12-18 month flips taking old house in great areas and making them modern.

Probably helps to be in high value markets where high value homes sell.  Boston, Annapolis, Brooklyn, SoCal, San Francisco/Bay Area/Seattle.  Calculate your holding costs on $1.5mil for an extra month or two or three if the market slows.  You want good cash reserves to do that.

Start small and take base hits.  Make $5000-$10,000 on the first 3-4, then move up to $20,000 on the next 7.  As you get your trades lined up and all your other inputs and learn where to take the fat out, move up to larger projects.  Don't bat for home runs every time at the plate.   Barry Bonds batting average was only .298.  Most investors/flippers can't survive on that.

Chris Seveney · Answer

If you were going to do it in the DC area and provide consistent cashflow, you would need to do it full time and have a nice marketing budget and get to networking with a lot of the players in this space. DC is ultra competitive due to lack of housing and I do not believe it will get better due to the zoning within the area which they may talk a big game about affordable housing but everything they do is anti-development/affordable housing.

If I were to do it full time in DC I would have my own development and construction team so I was able to get work done at more affordable costs and providing some sort of differentiator.

Pat Lulewicz · Answer

Careful with definitions. I just read an article recently that noted "Avg Profits For Flipped Homes" of $80,000, however when you dig into the article and their sources, "Profit" is simply Sale Price - Purchase Price...so it doesn't consider renovation costs, holding costs, financing costs, etc. When you think about it, only the flipper will know the expenses (not generally public record) so analysts or data aggregators can only go off publically available data. So your $300k number might be what the flipper sold the final product for, less what they purchased it for.

Zachary Deal · Answer

Lots of good advice in here already. If you are just starting out I would begin with a much less ambitious project than a $1.5 million flip. You want to start out small when flipping properties and work you way up to bigger projects. If things go wrong on a $500K flip vs $1.5 million flip it is much easier to correct and you risk of losing money or not making the profit you want is quite a bit lower.

Pierre E. · Answer

I happened to come across this post again  I appreciate this discussion. Totally understand and agree with what you guys who are far wiser and more seasoned than me have said. (as a side note, the question was more testing and idea, and generally I ask not about the beginning but with the end in mind, ie, if I decided to ever do real estate full time, would I focus on being a flipper in the DC area, SFH rentals, small multi rentals, large multi rental partnerships etc.  )@Matthew Paul you mentioned the number of buyers at 400k is higher than those at 1 mill which makes complete sense. I ran across the data below (I dont think it changes what you said but just adding more info)  I am also curious based on what @Jay Hinrichs and @Chris Seveney said, in a place like DC what do flippers look for if they aren't getting that 70% ARV, and is there a different metric for flipping in the SF area that people use, or in other HCOL areas?

showing Median sale price is almost 750k across all residential property types, and closer to 850k for single family

Performance by Property Type

Detached Single-Family Homes

Metric

Apr 2025

Apr 2024

Change

Closed Sales

2,126

2,101

+1.2%

Median Price

$873,667

$840,000

+4.0%

Days on Market

6 days

No change

Pending Sales

2,504

2,622

-4.5%

Active Listings

3,949

2,638

+49.7%

Months of Supply

2.09

1.47

+0.62

Townhomes

Metric

Apr 2025

Apr 2024

Change

Closed Sales

1,221

1,214

+0.6%

Median Price

$619,500

$630,000

-1.7%

Days on Market

7 days

6 days

+1 day

Pending Sales

1,315

1,367

-3.8%

Active Listings

2,285

1,598

+43.0%

Months of Supply

1.97

1.44

+0.53

Condos

Metric

Apr 2025

Apr 2024

Change

Closed Sales

1,106

1,197

-7.6%

Median Price

$400,000

$380,000

+5.3%

Days on Market

13 days

9 days

+4 days

Pending Sales

1,205

1,397

-13.7%

Active Listings

3,581

2,333

+53.5%

Months of Supply

3.24

2.02

+1.22

County-Level Highlights

Location

Median Price

Days on Market

Sales Change (YoY)

Washington, DC

$750,000

18 days

-6.3%

Montgomery County, MD

$670,000

7 days

+0.3%

Fairfax County, VA

$775,000

6 days

-0.9%

Prince George’s, MD

$454,445

14 days

-5.9%

Loudoun County, VA

$805,000

6 days

+6.3%

Arlington County, VA

$810,000

7 days

-9.5%

Alexandria, VA

$790,000

6 days

-12.8%

Falls Church, VA

$1,350,000

5 days

+133.3%

300k average profit on a flip - is that real?

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