Googles HUGE Red Flag to REI's

8 Replies

This is a chart of the term "flip houses" being entered into Google.  It peaks in July, 2007 (the worst time to buy) and bottoms in Sept., 2011 (the best time to buy).  It's now at levels approaching 2007.  

I would agree that investor interest is up. People are coming out of the woodwork wanting to flip houses. 

Hi @George Gammon ,

As a numbers and data guy myself I see where you are going. Although I would question how many "flipping shows" were on TV in 2007 vs 2011 vs now? 

The number of people Google searching may increase with that, but it does not mean that there is a direct effect on actual purchases or where the market is going. I would hazard to guess that many "consumer wants vs needs" would follow the same pattern. People have more money to spend they look for a Boat or a more expensive car or a cabin.

Just my 2 cents.

How many more people use Google in 2016 than 2007?

You know, looking up the word "Apocalypse" shows that searches peaked in May 2016 and has declined steeply since then. "Economic crash" spikes hard in 2015. "Zombies" was way back in 2013. How about "secession"? Monster spike right at the 2012 election. None of that stuff came true. I guess Google's not as good of a prognostication service as one might think. 

Originally posted by @JD Martin :

How many more people use Google in 2016 than 2007?

You know, looking up the word "Apocalypse" shows that searches peaked in May 2016 and has declined steeply since then. "Economic crash" spikes hard in 2015. "Zombies" was way back in 2013. How about "secession"? Monster spike right at the 2012 election. None of that stuff came true. I guess Google's not as good of a prognostication service as one might think. 

None of those correlated with an actual event(s).  The Google search "flip house" did.  I'm not saying it has anything to do with anything, I am saying it's information worth knowing.  

@JD Martin @Mike Cumbie @Shane Woods

Google search for "Cash out refinance"

Google search for "How to buy gold"

Gold prices literally peaked the exact same month as the Google searches.

Google search for "Buy Bitcoin"

Again, price of BItcoin peaks the exact same month.  

Obviously if more people want to take an action there will be more searches.  It makes sense that those actions would be expressed through more buying or higher prices.  I think what's important to note is if levels of prices or in this case searches get to the same level as where prices crashed before.  

It may mean something, it may mean nothing but I think it's worth knowing.  

I'd be careful about applying past metrics to the current property market.

There is rather a different dynamic at work now that before the crash.

Prior to the crash, supply and demand were closer to being in balance than they are now. Supply lagged demand, but it always does. Then, the lag was much less than it is now, even though the demand was largely artificial thanks to irresponsible lending practices.

At this point, however,there is a glut of latent demand, the dearth of lending being the offsetting factor. Demand is suppressed by the tighter lending guidelines which resulted from the crash.

Supply, on the other hand, is well behind even the suppressed demand. Some economists estimate that the supply of new housing units lags the demand by as much as five years, roughly 5 million units.

There will be a hit of some kind following the election. Regardless how it goes, some portion of the market will react negatively to the outcome. 

Stand pat, keep up your payments and wait for the market to recover from the swoon. It will swoon, it always does. It will recover, it always does.

Originally posted by @George Gammon :
Originally posted by @Jd Martin:

How many more people use Google in 2016 than 2007?

You know, looking up the word "Apocalypse" shows that searches peaked in May 2016 and has declined steeply since then. "Economic crash" spikes hard in 2015. "Zombies" was way back in 2013. How about "secession"? Monster spike right at the 2012 election. None of that stuff came true. I guess Google's not as good of a prognostication service as one might think. 

None of those correlated with an actual event(s).  The Google search "flip house" did.  I'm not saying it has anything to do with anything, I am saying it's information worth knowing.  

 "Apocalypse" correlated to Trump capturing the republican nomination after the Indiana primary win, "Zombies" peaked in 2013 with the popularity of The Walking Dead and Paramount's promotion of World War Z, and "Secession" peaked in 2012 after a number of counties in states that voted primarily democrat wanted to form their own state or leave their current state and join a neighboring state (see Colorado). As always, correlation does not equal causation. There are at least twice as many flip shows on now as there were during the peak in 2007, and social media and BP were it its infancy.

I might imagine that terms like "0 down financing" peaked in 2007 as well. 

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