Columbus, O. Approaching 40% Population Growth Milestone

21 Replies

The Columbus Region Comprehensive Economic Development Strategy (CEDS) was released for public comment by the Mid-Ohio Regional Planning Committee (MORPC), and it's looking bright in the capital city...the Columbus region is reaching the milestone of a 20-year population boom, with 40% growth from 2010-2030 and no signs of slowing...investing in Columbus might be the best decision you'll make as a long-distance investor.

Buying duplexes...the last 12mo. average sale price across the market is $260,000, or $130k/unit...buying 4-unit properties...save some cash and plan to spend about $109k/unit...

Almost forgot to mention...80% of that growth is projected to be single folks with no kids = renters

What's more interesting? The largest cities in the US are growing at less than half the rate of Columbus...in the next 50-years Columbus will eclipse locations like San Jose, Dallas, San Diego, and soon, Chicago...

Full Report

Originally posted by @Brandon Sturgill :

The Columbus Region Comprehensive Economic Development Strategy (CEDS) was released for public comment by the Mid-Ohio Regional Planning Committee (MORPC), and it's looking bright in the capital city...the Columbus region is reaching the milestone of a 20-year population boom, with 40% growth from 2010-2030 and no signs of slowing...investing in Columbus might be the best decision you'll make as a long-distance investor.

Buying duplexes...the last 12mo. average sale price across the market is $260,000, or $130k/unit...buying 4-unit properties...save some cash and plan to spend about $109k/unit...

Almost forgot to mention...80% of that growth is projected to be single folks with no kids = renters

What's more interesting? The largest cities in the US are growing at less than half the rate of Columbus...in the next 50-years Columbus will eclipse locations like San Jose, Dallas, San Diego, and soon, Chicago...

Full Report

 San Diego is already busting at the seams (i.e. more dense than I desire).  We have a large housing shortage.  Somehow we still manage to squeeze more people into the city and county (I wish we would not).  Basically we have little area to continue to expand.  We are constrained on South by Mexico, West by ocean, North by Camp Pendleton and Orange County.  There is some room in the East but it quickly gets environmentally harsh and has Imperial county.

I have never been to Columbus (I have been to Dayton - Columbus would be highest on my Ohio cities to visit).  I have seen it has a good mix of cash flow and appreciation.  What I do not know is whether there is room to continue to expand.

I would be leery of thinking bigger, more populous is always desired.  I do not know Columbus well enough to have an opinion, but for San Diego, I would like to see less population increase.

Good luck

The spreadsheet looks more like a PREDICTION OF 40% growth over THIRTY years, not 20. (2000-2030)

I’d second Dan’s idea that population growth isn’t always a good thing. 

The Vegas valley population has gone from 1.3mil to 2.2mil in 20 years. That’s an actual, not predicted, growth of 67%, not 40%, in 20, not 30 years. 

While it’s nice to see a northern Midwestern state not losing population, that’s probably a more realistic goal, if they have the housing. 

@Dan Heuschele makes perfect sense...it gets rural quick here...any direction 15 minutes outside of downtown is basically farm, lol...always amazed to see these developments of 400 SFR's with starting prices of $600k built in a corn field...some of them even leave the silo up...incredible.

San Diego is a different world...need to get back to some giant fig trees soon...

Originally posted by @Brandon Sturgill :

The Columbus Region Comprehensive Economic Development Strategy (CEDS) was released for public comment by the Mid-Ohio Regional Planning Committee (MORPC), and it's looking bright in the capital city...the Columbus region is reaching the milestone of a 20-year population boom, with 40% growth from 2010-2030 and no signs of slowing...investing in Columbus might be the best decision you'll make as a long-distance investor.

Buying duplexes...the last 12mo. average sale price across the market is $260,000, or $130k/unit...buying 4-unit properties...save some cash and plan to spend about $109k/unit...

Almost forgot to mention...80% of that growth is projected to be single folks with no kids = renters

What's more interesting? The largest cities in the US are growing at less than half the rate of Columbus...in the next 50-years Columbus will eclipse locations like San Jose, Dallas, San Diego, and soon, Chicago...

Full Report

 I am seeing my rents increase rapidly in Columbus, Ohio

I went to Columbus Ohio last week and there is a lot of activity. There are many large construction jobs going on in the city, many rental units being built around Ohio State University and I see a high percent of properties being remodeled around the college. I drove miles and miles around the city, but I thought the rents are far too low and most of the properties I saw were ragged.

I never look at the reports that government agencies and real estate companies create. I look at the price for the property, rental income and the costs. From what I saw in Columbus, due to the low rents, I would not want to get involved with most of the properties I saw that were for sale because of the high costs to repair balconies and roof with 75% slopes 60 t0 80 feet from the ground.

I am sure there are some great opportunities, but I saw nothing that was impressing enough to do further investigation. Overall, I thought almost property and shopping center was run-down.

Growth in a city is not impressing and I notices that our great government relocated maybe a few hundred thousand Middle Eastern people to the Columbus area. I see no problem with Middle Easterners, but it also appears there are several large complexes that are housing the Middle Easterners and since their is an abundance of vacant land in the Columbus area the increase in population does not always result in increased property prices.

Again, I am positive there are great opportunities, but I am not going to bother to try to seek them out because even though property prices are higher in California you will find that California still has the most and best opportunities.

California is better than Columbus due to the high-income opportunities, high increase in property values and the high abundance of recreational activities. Look at Things To Do in Columbus and there are a few gardens and museums. Maybe, there are some lakes to fish in, but other than going to movie theaters I did not see many things to do.

In California, you can go ski in the snow less than 2 house from Los Angeles and go jet ski on a lake on the same day. When you live in California you spend your entire life taking your family to nice places they've never seen more than one time. For recreation and people who like the outdoors California has to be the best place in the entire world.

Originally posted by @Jack Orthman :

I went to Columbus Ohio last week and there is a lot of activity. There are many large construction jobs going on in the city, many rental units being built around Ohio State University and I see a high percent of properties being remodeled around the college. I drove miles and miles around the city, but I thought the rents are far too low and most of the properties I saw were ragged.

I never look at the reports that government agencies and real estate companies create. I look at the price for the property, rental income and the costs. From what I saw in Columbus, due to the low rents, I would not want to get involved with most of the properties I saw that were for sale because of the high costs to repair balconies and roof with 75% slopes 60 t0 80 feet from the ground.

I am sure there are some great opportunities, but I saw nothing that was impressing enough to do further investigation. Overall, I thought almost property and shopping center was run-down.

Growth in a city is not impressing and I notices that our great government relocated maybe a few hundred thousand Middle Eastern people to the Columbus area. I see no problem with Middle Easterners, but it also appears there are several large complexes that are housing the Middle Easterners and since their is an abundance of vacant land in the Columbus area the increase in population does not always result in increased property prices.

Again, I am positive there are great opportunities, but I am not going to bother to try to seek them out because even though property prices are higher in California you will find that California still has the most and best opportunities.

California is better than Columbus due to the high-income opportunities, high increase in property values and the high abundance of recreational activities. Look at Things To Do in Columbus and there are a few gardens and museums. Maybe, there are some lakes to fish in, but other than going to movie theaters I did not see many things to do.

In California, you can go ski in the snow less than 2 house from Los Angeles and go jet ski on a lake on the same day. When you live in California you spend your entire life taking your family to nice places they've never seen more than one time. For recreation and people who like the outdoors California has to be the best place in the entire world.

 California is much better than Columbus, Ohio because CA is very landlord-friendly!

@Brandon Sturgill @Marc Rice  Do you expect (or see) the growth there to happen through densification or through horizontal growth?  A market growing by building more housing on raw land is such a different investment game than a market growing via infill development.  It's like the difference between playing baseball and basketball -- they both use a ball, but understanding or being good at one says nothing about being good at (or enjoying) the other.

Beyond saying "Both", I wonder what you local folks expect to see happen.
   

Originally posted by @Brandon Sturgill :

The Columbus Region Comprehensive Economic Development Strategy (CEDS) was released for public comment by the Mid-Ohio Regional Planning Committee (MORPC), and it's looking bright in the capital city...the Columbus region is reaching the milestone of a 20-year population boom, with 40% growth from 2010-2030 and no signs of slowing...investing in Columbus might be the best decision you'll make as a long-distance investor.

Buying duplexes...the last 12mo. average sale price across the market is $260,000, or $130k/unit...buying 4-unit properties...save some cash and plan to spend about $109k/unit...

Almost forgot to mention...80% of that growth is projected to be single folks with no kids = renters

What's more interesting? The largest cities in the US are growing at less than half the rate of Columbus...in the next 50-years Columbus will eclipse locations like San Jose, Dallas, San Diego, and soon, Chicago...

Full Report

 Great Post! Looking forward to growth. 

@Justin R. there is focus on sprawl and in-fill building...nothing in this city will ever crest 40-50 stories I can guarantee every new development is mixed use...and developers are reclaiming thousands of acres of corn field for ****** one-off residential developments for the lamest buyers in the market to call home...multi-prong approach of intentional underbuilding and constant fights with the locals who want neighborhoods to stay stagnant.

Originally posted by @Brandon Sturgill :

@Jack Orthman I'm too tired for a lengthy reply because I have already worked 14-hours today, but none of what you said makes any logical sense...you're saying you base your investing on the visual architecture of the location...

That is not what I said. I said I drove around actually looking at properties for 3 days with the intention that if Columbus was anywhere near as great and people on BP keep saying then there was the possibility that I would invest in Columbus.

A few weeks ago, I wrote a post saying I was going to Columbus to look at properties. I never wrote the details about why I was going to Columbus, but the reason I was a little excited about Columbus was I wanted to look at at an 80-unit apartment complex that was for sale for about $50k per unit and the property was 'right up my alley' because it was 50% and needed a lot of rehabbing and I've been a construction contractor for 55+ years.

And...your 14-hours day ain't crap! For the past 3 months, I've been working almost 21 hours per day. I sleep for 2 hours from 12 pm to 2 am, go back to sleep at 4 am and get up for the rest of the day at 5 am. NO JOKE! 

NO! I looked at properties for sale and I did not like what I saw. I don't like the city. It looks very run-down and I don't see why any sane out-of-state person would invest in Ohio.

I will tell you why. It is because California is still the best place on the planet of the earth to earn money in real estate. Go to Victorville or Apple Valley in California and investors can still earn 50% to 100% on their investment capital every 1 to 2 years because there are beautiful homes in California that are lower-priced that Columbus.

Victorville and Apply Valley have homes for sale where there is huge potential. I told this story about 9 months ago, but it is even better today. Almost exactly 5 years ago, one of my employees who has been in this country only a few years purchased a house in Apple Valley for $108,000 with only $20,000 down. Today, that house will sell in 1 day for more than $300,000. THERE ARE MILLIONS OF SIMILAR HOMES FOR SALE TODAY AT VERY LOW PRICES.

He put $20,000 down and earned $200k in 5 years. Doing the math in simple form he earned $40,000 per year on his money, or 200% every year. Then, he earned another $6,000 every year from rental income. So, he really earned $46,000 per year on his money, or 230% on his money every year.

You cannot do that so easily in Columbus and that is what I looked for when I was in Columbus.

And. there are millions of these opportunities in California.

Originally posted by @Dan Heuschele :
Originally posted by @Brandon Sturgill:

The Columbus Region Comprehensive Economic Development Strategy (CEDS) was released for public comment by the Mid-Ohio Regional Planning Committee (MORPC), and it's looking bright in the capital city...the Columbus region is reaching the milestone of a 20-year population boom, with 40% growth from 2010-2030 and no signs of slowing...investing in Columbus might be the best decision you'll make as a long-distance investor.

Buying duplexes...the last 12mo. average sale price across the market is $260,000, or $130k/unit...buying 4-unit properties...save some cash and plan to spend about $109k/unit...

Almost forgot to mention...80% of that growth is projected to be single folks with no kids = renters

What's more interesting? The largest cities in the US are growing at less than half the rate of Columbus...in the next 50-years Columbus will eclipse locations like San Jose, Dallas, San Diego, and soon, Chicago...

Full Report

 San Diego is already busting at the seams (i.e. more dense than I desire).  We have a large housing shortage.  Somehow we still manage to squeeze more people into the city and county (I wish we would not).  Basically we have little area to continue to expand.  We are constrained on South by Mexico, West by ocean, North by Camp Pendleton and Orange County.  There is some room in the East but it quickly gets environmentally harsh and has Imperial county.

I have never been to Columbus (I have been to Dayton - Columbus would be highest on my Ohio cities to visit).  I have seen it has a good mix of cash flow and appreciation.  What I do not know is whether there is room to continue to expand.

I would be leery of thinking bigger, more populous is always desired.  I do not know Columbus well enough to have an opinion, but for San Diego, I would like to see less population increase.

Good luck

 Everything you are talking about are positive things. You don't want a lot of vacant land because the more dense the housing the better. The more people moving into the area the better. Population growth is the best thing that can happen for every country and the illegals crossing the border help population growth. Shortages of housing increases their value and the rents. The building of new homes on vacant land helps the economy, but does not help to increase property values. 

Like Jack, I visited Columbus recently.  There is much to like, in my view.  Victorian Village, Worthington, Short North were especially impressive areas.  Overall, I got the feeling I was in Texas/New South with much of the landscape seeming like it had been built yesterday or the day before.  On the investment side, I got the same impression, though, that house prices have already outrun rents and I do not see rents increasing by a sufficient amount to make up the difference barring a pretty dramatic fall in the house prices.  Those who got in earlier have made out like bandits and I applaud them for their foresight and pluck.  At this point in time, I can't justify investing there when I can deploy slightly larger amounts of capital at a comparable price to rent ratio in parts of the SF Bay Area.  (And no, short of nuclear holocaust, Columbus will never eclipse Chicago).      

Dorothy, in The Wizard of OZ said, "there is no place like home". Everyone has a greater love for the place they are from, except me. I'm from Massachusetts and I wouldn't live there for all the money in the world.

Water is a funny thing about the desert. Victorville does have a beautiful river running through it and we take our ATV's and run them up and down the river for miles.

Victorville is not my favorite desert city, but Apple Valley is the next city over and it is a beautiful city to live in. Apple Valley has a beautiful river we hike to and when hiking and looking at the beauty it always reminds me of going back in time to the dinosaur era. When we get the to the river we are at the edge of about a 200 foot steep mountain we have to go down and it is treacherous. Many people get hurt and helicopters are always evacuating people. The river is about 9 feet deep in some places and we jump into the water from a cliff about 30 feet high. I owned 10 acres high on a mountain overlooking beautiful scenery.

Go north Newberry Springs about 50 miles north of Victorville and the water table is so high many people have large ponds in their front yards. I think Newberry Springs was where that movie was about with Sandra Bullock where the electric company dumped crap into the soil and it contaminated the water in Newberry Springs, caused cancer and killed people. Oooop! There goes the beauty of Newberry Springs.

I'm sure Ohio has some beautiful places and don't particularly want to rag on the place. I guess I have been spoiled by California and its Easy Money. Sorry!!!

Originally posted by @Darius Ogloza :

Like Jack, I visited Columbus recently.  There is much to like, in my view.  Victorian Village, Worthington, Short North were especially impressive areas.  Overall, I got the feeling I was in Texas/New South with much of the landscape seeming like it had been built yesterday or the day before.  On the investment side, I got the same impression, though, that house prices have already outrun rents and I do not see rents increasing by a sufficient amount to make up the difference barring a pretty dramatic fall in the house prices.  Those who got in earlier have made out like bandits and I applaud them for their foresight and pluck.  At this point in time, I can't justify investing there when I can deploy slightly larger amounts of capital at a comparable price to rent ratio in parts of the SF Bay Area.  (And no, short of nuclear holocaust, Columbus will never eclipse Chicago).      

Can you share an address that sold in the Bay Area recently that was a 7 cap upon purchase? I have a brother who lives in San Fran, and have been all around the Bay Area - I haven't seen anything close to that. I might be off.