Buyers or Sellers Market
Investor · VA · Member since 2015 · 21k+ posts · 19k+ votes
7e investments53 Reviews
Buyers or Sellers Market
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Rock Star Extraordinaire · Northeast, TN · Member since 2015 · 10k+ posts · 17k+ votes
4yI think it's about as close to neutral as it might get. There's still no inventory, but there's also less buyers able to afford with high prices and rising interest rates. On the other hand, serious high prices have just killed builders who are only making it on higher-priced builds. If you just looked at historicals you'd say still seller's market for sure, as most places have maybe a month of inventory at historical rates, but I watch a few markets and I'm seeing houses sit for longer and/or have some price reductions.
My personal view is that housing prices don't really come down, they just kind of quit growing and the entire housing market shrinks as a percentage of GDP as both buyers and sellers exit the scene. That will keep housing prices high, but everyone involved in the housing market will get walloped - builders, realtors, movers, financiers, home furnishers, etc.
Skyline Properties
35 Replies
- Rock Star Extraordinaire · Northeast, TN · Member since 2015 · 10k+ posts · 17k+ votes4y
I think it's about as close to neutral as it might get. There's still no inventory, but there's also less buyers able to afford with high prices and rising interest rates. On the other hand, serious high prices have just killed builders who are only making it on higher-priced builds. If you just looked at historicals you'd say still seller's market for sure, as most places have maybe a month of inventory at historical rates, but I watch a few markets and I'm seeing houses sit for longer and/or have some price reductions.
My personal view is that housing prices don't really come down, they just kind of quit growing and the entire housing market shrinks as a percentage of GDP as both buyers and sellers exit the scene. That will keep housing prices high, but everyone involved in the housing market will get walloped - builders, realtors, movers, financiers, home furnishers, etc.
Skyline Properties - Rental Property Investor · Cherry Hill, NJ · Member since 2015 · 626 posts · 495 votes4y
I would say it all depends on the individual area. I am seeing houses sit in the market for 30+ days from when there were lines of people outside of open houses waiting to get in. The tradesmen I talk to say that their businesses are slowing a bit. They think people are nervous about the economy and are holding onto their cash. Then you have the interest rates increasing and market dropping. Should we talk about the inflation in food and ever increasing fuel prices? What used to cost me $60 to fill up a tank now costs me over $100. Foreclosures are popping up on the market too.
I would agree that we are neutral right now but we are trending towards a buyers market. I think the summer activity will definitively tell us where we are at.
- 4yJay HinrichsBusiness MemberReal Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
Quote from @JD Martin:
I think it's about as close to neutral as it might get. There's still no inventory, but there's also less buyers able to afford with high prices and rising interest rates. On the other hand, serious high prices have just killed builders who are only making it on higher-priced builds. If you just looked at historicals you'd say still seller's market for sure, as most places have maybe a month of inventory at historical rates, but I watch a few markets and I'm seeing houses sit for longer and/or have some price reductions.
My personal view is that housing prices don't really come down, they just kind of quit growing and the entire housing market shrinks as a percentage of GDP as both buyers and sellers exit the scene. That will keep housing prices high, but everyone involved in the housing market will get walloped - builders, realtors, movers, financiers, home furnishers, etc.
from my perspective its totally regional as always.
from my 3 markets.
1. charleston SC lots skyrocketed have not been able to buy a lot in a full year and there is next to zero inventory of lots and what has come on has been double what i used to pay.. many have not sold ( total of less than 10 lots in the last year on MLS). but talking to my GC sales are still happening and he is selling his 9 lot subdivision in North Charleston for 180k per lot.. these are finished lots.. I was buying finished lots 3 to 5 years ago in the same area for 25 to 50k each. so he is going to make a killing on this one.. its in escrow. my product there has been some first time ( those that were seemed to inherit it LOL). plus all cash from NYC.. I sold a 2.2 spec there 2 years ago for cash a wall st. trader who was burnt out . currently have nothing going as i stated cant buy lots that make sense.
2. Orlando market.. we are building dingers IE starter housing. I closed on one this week that funds Tuesday for 312k 1400 sq ft basic house have 4 more in various stages and those will come on market for 275 to 325k if they sell at those numbers profits are right at 20% NNN . And for us over 100% COC in about 14 months so not huge dollars but its still nice profits .. and i can do this as i have great banking relations.
3. Canby Oregon Ivyridgeestatecanby.com we are through phase 1 30 houses pricing started at high 400s got to high 500s a year later and now are at high 600s for exact same floor plan.. of course cost of lumber and everything else went up so profits are hanging in there fine and maybe up .. right at 15 to 20% nnn on each of the 30 I built and on phase 2 I have 12 going now of which 5 are presold at big numbers that profits will be in excess of 20% NNN and over 100% COC one closing mid week for 729k 2400 sq ft and they put 400k down and younger couple kids were under 10. the other 4 I have presold are all retired or about to.. One is a schoolteacher who inherited her house and sold it in one week in Portland suburb for 630k and her buy is 750k from me. So in talking to her mortgage broker loan is 100k.. So again interest rates mean nothing to them the others are all cash at 730 to 850k.. So I think thats the market we will attract in this area the cashed up buyers people that are affected by interest rates rising are not our clients.. My construction loans though are tied to prime so we enjoy many many year at super low rate and now will be 1 over prime but still only 6.2 apr for spec loans which is in my mind and only affects us maybe a couple grand on a 750k sale.
Now on the east coast I and mid south etc my banker at Ameris bank who is banking my FLA stuff said they have now cut their construction spec loans to 400k max and retail exit 550k max.. so to your point the high end builder doing million plus are going to have to go shopping or they are much stronger than us and can get the larger loans.. we are just a small fish as it comes to volume of building even though we are making very healthy profits. And we believe we will continue to do so as long as our starter product in FLA stays 350k and under and on our nicer product we just do much more custom than the production builders and we pull those 2 to 3 buyers a month that are not affected by interest rates and simply want what they want.
Bottom line though I wont get too far over the ski tips no more than 12 Oregon specs IE about 6 million borrowed and no more than 4 FLAs at a time for a little under 800k borrowed and if I can get going in Charleston my LOC there is 3 mil but would probably only do 2 for less than 1 mil.
Bottom line if sales come to a halt even though we dont want to be landlords in the worse way we can rent.. and or we can owner finance to new buyers we do this occasionally anyway its nice cash flow and as note buyers/ originators nothing better than a new build and my borrower puts 20% down and I hold the note and given my basis in that note is much lower since my builder profit is baked in our % return is far better than taking risk on buying defaulted paper by a very very long shot.
AS for the BP members who 90% dont do what i do and are landlords I will be working on my own DSCR loan product now that the big boys are at 8% I look to clean up in those new originations again So much easier and better than all the work it takes to chase defaulted paper ( unless your like Van horn and have a monster portfolio ) but if your just dealing with a few million its just way too much work for the risk compared to us buying and owner financing brand new homes or investment homes.
- Real Estate Broker · Coppell, TX · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 4k+ votes4y
Seller's market for us still in DFW, although I would say there is some pause in the market for about a month now.
I think seller's still think they are going to get 25% over already optimistic price, and they may still sell over ask, but maybe not that much over any more.
Some buyers still feeling the shock of interest rates. I've had both tell me they want to wait for a better opportunity, so many seller's thinking prices will still go up, and buyers thinking there will be market correction and lower interest rate if they wait.
When you see all the commercial activity in DFW area though and the lack of housing, there is still plenty of pressure.
Builders for the first time in probably 3 years are trying to be creative with rate locks.....those not offering commissions are back with commissions and bonus. Many still don't have lots though, very few build any spec homes, I haven't seen any real price reductions on new constructions. Lot prices probably not going down. Material prices maybe have come down some....lumber and concrete....labor still in short supply. Just finished a new construction deal this week that took nearly 2 years to build. Pretty much every competent had a supply chain issue and super long lead times...windows, bricks, paint, appliances, HVAC, garage doors, garage door openers, and labor for everything...except painters and landscapers. Not sure that changes. I don't think any of the trades are just killing it where they have a ton of fluff to reduce prices....maybe I am wrong. I would guess fuel increases and labor cost increases don't really allow them to cut much.
When you look at the stock exchange and you see how much margin the builders have, it really aint all that much, even with the stock price decreases. So unless they can cut costs somewhere, I don't see big price reductions. Maybe they try to use cheaper materials....but they already use cheap stuff. Maybe they build smaller houses....townhomes vs single family to reduce lot costs/development costs?
If China opens today, and all factories fire on all cylinders, how fast do we solve supply chain issues? A year? Do prices come down? How much steel goes in a dishwasher? Do chip prices go down? How many chips in a dishwasher?
If J. Powell creates higher unemployment does that help the lumber industry, the window industry, the paint factory? If they borrow money, has that cost gone down or up?
One thing I see with the work from home desire, is some people can live in lower cost cities...so DFW and Atlanta vs NYC. Atlanta and Miami vs Silicon Valley. So we may see some dips or corrections at some point in higher cost and higher crime cities vs other cities. I also see people who were forced to live in DFW area due to commute to office, now choosing cities that are cheaper, safe, more fun, more character about 1 hour away...places like Waco or Weatherford....quieter life, lower costs, but still close enough to make it to a specialist dr. or night on the town.
Due to prices and shortages, I think there also could be a shift in the way people live. More sharing, more generations living together. College kids staying home, and staying longer after college. You're probably a little younger than I am, but wife and I were talking about when we grew up, we were all about getting a car and license at 16 or before...and getting out of the house at 18. Of course not everyone did, but the kids around us almost never talk about that. Kid next door did not get his license until after he graduated, and was going to be more or less forced to drive to a job and to college. I would say half the kids I know at 16 are not really eager to get their license. When I was 16, I'll bet 1/2 my friends or more got it on their birthday.
This may just be one more issue that Covid changed....is the way we live.
- Real Estate Broker · Coppell, TX · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 4k+ votes4y
@JD Martin I agree with everything you say....not sure everyone gets walloped though...some will...some will just slow down. Some companies like OpenDoor may get hammered if they overpaid, thinking the market was still going up at 20-30% a year and that's what their buying model was...and now it slows to 3%....not sure where they borrow, but if holding costs go up too, they can get squeezed.
- 4yJay HinrichsBusiness MemberReal Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
Quote from @Bruce Lynn:
Seller's market for us still in DFW, although I would say there is some pause in the market for about a month now.
I think seller's still think they are going to get 25% over already optimistic price, and they may still sell over ask, but maybe not that much over any more.
Some buyers still feeling the shock of interest rates. I've had both tell me they want to wait for a better opportunity, so many seller's thinking prices will still go up, and buyers thinking there will be market correction and lower interest rate if they wait.
When you see all the commercial activity in DFW area though and the lack of housing, there is still plenty of pressure.
Builders for the first time in probably 3 years are trying to be creative with rate locks.....those not offering commissions are back with commissions and bonus. Many still don't have lots though, very few build any spec homes, I haven't seen any real price reductions on new constructions. Lot prices probably not going down. Material prices maybe have come down some....lumber and concrete....labor still in short supply. Just finished a new construction deal this week that took nearly 2 years to build. Pretty much every competent had a supply chain issue and super long lead times...windows, bricks, paint, appliances, HVAC, garage doors, garage door openers, and labor for everything...except painters and landscapers. Not sure that changes. I don't think any of the trades are just killing it where they have a ton of fluff to reduce prices....maybe I am wrong. I would guess fuel increases and labor cost increases don't really allow them to cut much.
When you look at the stock exchange and you see how much margin the builders have, it really aint all that much, even with the stock price decreases. So unless they can cut costs somewhere, I don't see big price reductions. Maybe they try to use cheaper materials....but they already use cheap stuff. Maybe they build smaller houses....townhomes vs single family to reduce lot costs/development costs?
If China opens today, and all factories fire on all cylinders, how fast do we solve supply chain issues? A year? Do prices come down? How much steel goes in a dishwasher? Do chip prices go down? How many chips in a dishwasher?
If J. Powell creates higher unemployment does that help the lumber industry, the window industry, the paint factory? If they borrow money, has that cost gone down or up?
One thing I see with the work from home desire, is some people can live in lower cost cities...so DFW and Atlanta vs NYC. Atlanta and Miami vs Silicon Valley. So we may see some dips or corrections at some point in higher cost and higher crime cities vs other cities. I also see people who were forced to live in DFW area due to commute to office, now choosing cities that are cheaper, safe, more fun, more character about 1 hour away...places like Waco or Weatherford....quieter life, lower costs, but still close enough to make it to a specialist dr. or night on the town.
Due to prices and shortages, I think there also could be a shift in the way people live. More sharing, more generations living together. College kids staying home, and staying longer after college. You're probably a little younger than I am, but wife and I were talking about when we grew up, we were all about getting a car and license at 16 or before...and getting out of the house at 18. Of course not everyone did, but the kids around us almost never talk about that. Kid next door did not get his license until after he graduated, and was going to be more or less forced to drive to a job and to college. I would say half the kids I know at 16 are not really eager to get their license. When I was 16, I'll bet 1/2 my friends or more got it on their birthday.
This may just be one more issue that Covid changed....is the way we live.
we are starting to build dual masters so parents can live with kids or other way around.. your description of being 16 and getting your license and move out a soon as U were 18 is spot on for my generation as well. My kids now 40 and 42 I put through collage so they left at 18 and maybe came back for a few months but never lived with us again. also got their license at 16 and they were gone at that point. thankfully mind were basically good kids and the car freedom did not lead to trouble..
- 4yMark F.Pro MemberRental Property Investor · Northern NJ · Member since 2019 · 673 posts · 678 votesIn northern NJ it seems as its still a sellers market but a lot of sellers are just so used to a certain price and buyers are unwilling to pay so it just sits. More price reductions but still plenty of sellers too stubborn to adjust accordingly. If priced well, it getd gobbled up. I imagine once the summer is over sellers will finally wise up.
Quote from @Chris Seveney:
Curious for those who are active in the space.
Do you currently see it as a buyers or sellers market right now?
Do you think in 90 days this will have changed?
Love to get your feedback and opinions.
Since you are in NOVA my comment should be relatable. Sellers market at the right price, also many businesses bringing their HQ here. If there are similar factors in other towns it will be Sellers market, Austin is another example.
Buyer's market in not so economically strong markets. Take small towns for example have certainly turned into buyers market.
Same will continue over next 90 days.
- Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes4y
Yeah, this is generational change. Not just kids will stay longer with their parents but we'll see more landlords/renters rather than home buyers. 10 years ago the ratio was 1:10 and now 1:5. More institutional landlords are purchasing a property. Just yesterday alone I talked to a CEO that bought a hundred houses in CO and TX. Also, there may be a reduction in student loans. With all the expenses for the kids before they're entering college, it doesn't make sense for them to have so many debts before entering job markets. What happened in the US today really mimics the situation in Asia in late 90/early 2000. Sustainable inflation. From a geographical standpoint, all these inflations and fed hike actually make US Dollar is getting stronger and investors flee European currency.
Bay Area market is still strong, especially for luxury market. Lower demands for lower price homes. Inventory is just flat/none. - 4yRyan KellyBusiness MemberReal Estate Broker · Austin, TX · Member since 2018 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
@Chris Seveney here in Austin, we've definitely experienced a spike in inventory because of the higher interest rates. It will take several months for buyers and especially sellers to shift to the new normal. As many have said, a majority of sellers are still hesitant to be more conservative with their list price and price reductions are coming back to pre-pandemic levels. The biggest rise in inventory is from new construction, so the prices will soften faster in the suburbs where the homebuilders are concentrated. A well-priced and updated property can still sell quickly.
Ryan Kelly Group - Keller Williams5112 Reviews - Real Estate Broker · Hyde Park Tampa, FL · Member since 2019 · 2k+ posts · 3k+ votes4y
In Tampa Bay - seller's market. Demand is greater than the supply. With over 200 people moving to Tampa each day, we're in a housing crunch that has continued for about 8 years now. Property appreciation is near 30% year-over-year and rental price increase ranges between 28% and 37% depending on the market. Even the Housing Authority in one market is bringing in shipping containers to convert to SFH for Section 8 and homeless population.
The raw data that the National Association of Realtors has been collecting indicates that investors are purchasing fewer properties nationally. Having said that, OpenDoor has increased the pace of their buying and expanded to three more markets.
Bottom Line: It's nuts!
- Investor · Austin, TX · Member since 2021 · 9k+ posts · 5k+ votes4y
Can’t speak for every market, here in Austin we went from .6 months of inventory to 4 months. Which is technically still a sellers market
Quote from @Eliott Elias:
Can’t speak for every market, here in Austin we went from .6 months of inventory to 4 months. Which is technically still a sellers market
That has changed fast. Looks like buyers strike to me, anticipating lower prices. I still see loan options in 4s so not sure why market should change so much.
- Real Estate Agent · Washington, D.C. · Member since 2012 · 17k+ posts · 30k+ votes4y
The DC area is still firmly a sellers market. It isnt as rabid as it was 6 months ago, but its still multiple offer situations with very little inventory.
District Invest Group545 Reviews - 4yJordan MoorheadBusiness MemberReal Estate Agent · Austin, TX · Member since 2015 · 5k+ posts · 3k+ votes
It's still a sellers market but buyers have much more leverage now. The tide continues to shift in buyer's favor too!
The Moorhead Team5142 Reviews - Rock Star Extraordinaire · Northeast, TN · Member since 2015 · 10k+ posts · 17k+ votes4y
Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:
Quote from @Bruce Lynn:
Seller's market for us still in DFW, although I would say there is some pause in the market for about a month now.
I think seller's still think they are going to get 25% over already optimistic price, and they may still sell over ask, but maybe not that much over any more.
Some buyers still feeling the shock of interest rates. I've had both tell me they want to wait for a better opportunity, so many seller's thinking prices will still go up, and buyers thinking there will be market correction and lower interest rate if they wait.
When you see all the commercial activity in DFW area though and the lack of housing, there is still plenty of pressure.
Builders for the first time in probably 3 years are trying to be creative with rate locks.....those not offering commissions are back with commissions and bonus. Many still don't have lots though, very few build any spec homes, I haven't seen any real price reductions on new constructions. Lot prices probably not going down. Material prices maybe have come down some....lumber and concrete....labor still in short supply. Just finished a new construction deal this week that took nearly 2 years to build. Pretty much every competent had a supply chain issue and super long lead times...windows, bricks, paint, appliances, HVAC, garage doors, garage door openers, and labor for everything...except painters and landscapers. Not sure that changes. I don't think any of the trades are just killing it where they have a ton of fluff to reduce prices....maybe I am wrong. I would guess fuel increases and labor cost increases don't really allow them to cut much.
When you look at the stock exchange and you see how much margin the builders have, it really aint all that much, even with the stock price decreases. So unless they can cut costs somewhere, I don't see big price reductions. Maybe they try to use cheaper materials....but they already use cheap stuff. Maybe they build smaller houses....townhomes vs single family to reduce lot costs/development costs?
If China opens today, and all factories fire on all cylinders, how fast do we solve supply chain issues? A year? Do prices come down? How much steel goes in a dishwasher? Do chip prices go down? How many chips in a dishwasher?
If J. Powell creates higher unemployment does that help the lumber industry, the window industry, the paint factory? If they borrow money, has that cost gone down or up?
One thing I see with the work from home desire, is some people can live in lower cost cities...so DFW and Atlanta vs NYC. Atlanta and Miami vs Silicon Valley. So we may see some dips or corrections at some point in higher cost and higher crime cities vs other cities. I also see people who were forced to live in DFW area due to commute to office, now choosing cities that are cheaper, safe, more fun, more character about 1 hour away...places like Waco or Weatherford....quieter life, lower costs, but still close enough to make it to a specialist dr. or night on the town.
Due to prices and shortages, I think there also could be a shift in the way people live. More sharing, more generations living together. College kids staying home, and staying longer after college. You're probably a little younger than I am, but wife and I were talking about when we grew up, we were all about getting a car and license at 16 or before...and getting out of the house at 18. Of course not everyone did, but the kids around us almost never talk about that. Kid next door did not get his license until after he graduated, and was going to be more or less forced to drive to a job and to college. I would say half the kids I know at 16 are not really eager to get their license. When I was 16, I'll bet 1/2 my friends or more got it on their birthday.
This may just be one more issue that Covid changed....is the way we live.
we are starting to build dual masters so parents can live with kids or other way around.. your description of being 16 and getting your license and move out a soon as U were 18 is spot on for my generation as well. My kids now 40 and 42 I put through collage so they left at 18 and maybe came back for a few months but never lived with us again. also got their license at 16 and they were gone at that point. thankfully mind were basically good kids and the car freedom did not lead to trouble..
This is pretty common these days. One of my grandsons didn't get his license until he was 19. I bought him a car for graduation but he hardly ever drives it. Just a different mentality I guess. I drove as soon as I was able, even without a license.
Skyline Properties - Real Estate Agent · Washington DC · Member since 2016 · 847 posts · 656 votes4yI guess if you want to be technical it’s still a buyers market, but it’s definitely cooled off significantly (Especially in the cities D.C. and Baltimore) Suburbs are holding up much better. That said the market just has a different feel then I’ve seen it since I’ve stated in 2015. Maybe this is more feel based but pretty much every investor and buyer I talk to feels like the party is over and values are coming down. We can debate the technicals but if at a certain point everyone thinks prices are coming down then they do (Consumer confidence is the entire economy to some basic extent.)
Quote from @Chris Seveney:
Curious for those who are active in the space.
Do you currently see it as a buyers or sellers market right now?
Do you think in 90 days this will have changed?
Love to get your feedback and opinions.
- Real Estate Agent · Springfield VA · Member since 2018 · 480 posts · 400 votes4y
Over the last week what I experienced is that properties that do not need much work still go fast with multiple offer situations, however those that need a few cosmetic touches will still go under contract within two weeks but the number of offers have decreased significantly, I placed offers in both Virginia and Maryland.
- 4yJay HinrichsBusiness MemberReal Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
Quote from @JD Martin:
Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:
Quote from @Bruce Lynn:
Seller's market for us still in DFW, although I would say there is some pause in the market for about a month now.
I think seller's still think they are going to get 25% over already optimistic price, and they may still sell over ask, but maybe not that much over any more.
Some buyers still feeling the shock of interest rates. I've had both tell me they want to wait for a better opportunity, so many seller's thinking prices will still go up, and buyers thinking there will be market correction and lower interest rate if they wait.
When you see all the commercial activity in DFW area though and the lack of housing, there is still plenty of pressure.
Builders for the first time in probably 3 years are trying to be creative with rate locks.....those not offering commissions are back with commissions and bonus. Many still don't have lots though, very few build any spec homes, I haven't seen any real price reductions on new constructions. Lot prices probably not going down. Material prices maybe have come down some....lumber and concrete....labor still in short supply. Just finished a new construction deal this week that took nearly 2 years to build. Pretty much every competent had a supply chain issue and super long lead times...windows, bricks, paint, appliances, HVAC, garage doors, garage door openers, and labor for everything...except painters and landscapers. Not sure that changes. I don't think any of the trades are just killing it where they have a ton of fluff to reduce prices....maybe I am wrong. I would guess fuel increases and labor cost increases don't really allow them to cut much.
When you look at the stock exchange and you see how much margin the builders have, it really aint all that much, even with the stock price decreases. So unless they can cut costs somewhere, I don't see big price reductions. Maybe they try to use cheaper materials....but they already use cheap stuff. Maybe they build smaller houses....townhomes vs single family to reduce lot costs/development costs?
If China opens today, and all factories fire on all cylinders, how fast do we solve supply chain issues? A year? Do prices come down? How much steel goes in a dishwasher? Do chip prices go down? How many chips in a dishwasher?
If J. Powell creates higher unemployment does that help the lumber industry, the window industry, the paint factory? If they borrow money, has that cost gone down or up?
One thing I see with the work from home desire, is some people can live in lower cost cities...so DFW and Atlanta vs NYC. Atlanta and Miami vs Silicon Valley. So we may see some dips or corrections at some point in higher cost and higher crime cities vs other cities. I also see people who were forced to live in DFW area due to commute to office, now choosing cities that are cheaper, safe, more fun, more character about 1 hour away...places like Waco or Weatherford....quieter life, lower costs, but still close enough to make it to a specialist dr. or night on the town.
Due to prices and shortages, I think there also could be a shift in the way people live. More sharing, more generations living together. College kids staying home, and staying longer after college. You're probably a little younger than I am, but wife and I were talking about when we grew up, we were all about getting a car and license at 16 or before...and getting out of the house at 18. Of course not everyone did, but the kids around us almost never talk about that. Kid next door did not get his license until after he graduated, and was going to be more or less forced to drive to a job and to college. I would say half the kids I know at 16 are not really eager to get their license. When I was 16, I'll bet 1/2 my friends or more got it on their birthday.
This may just be one more issue that Covid changed....is the way we live.
we are starting to build dual masters so parents can live with kids or other way around.. your description of being 16 and getting your license and move out a soon as U were 18 is spot on for my generation as well. My kids now 40 and 42 I put through collage so they left at 18 and maybe came back for a few months but never lived with us again. also got their license at 16 and they were gone at that point. thankfully mind were basically good kids and the car freedom did not lead to trouble..
This is pretty common these days. One of my grandsons didn't get his license until he was 19. I bought him a car for graduation but he hardly ever drives it. Just a different mentality I guess. I drove as soon as I was able, even without a license.
my dad taught me to drive at 12 years old on our ranch beat up VW converted to dune buggy style .. 4 speed with clutch. we had about 7 miles of roads on our ranch so I probably did 100k miles on those roads. big 500 gallon gas tank so got gas right on the ranch.. one of the roads though went up to Hunters Point it was a pretty steep winding dirt road with very steep and long drop offs I kind of cringe now thinking of if I went over it probably would have been lights out. - 4yJay HinrichsBusiness MemberReal Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
Quote from @Jack Seiden:
I guess if you want to be technical it’s still a buyers market, but it’s definitely cooled off significantly (Especially in the cities D.C. and Baltimore) Suburbs are holding up much better. That said the market just has a different feel then I’ve seen it since I’ve stated in 2015. Maybe this is more feel based but pretty much every investor and buyer I talk to feels like the party is over and values are coming down. We can debate the technicals but if at a certain point everyone thinks prices are coming down then they do (Consumer confidence is the entire economy to some basic extent.)Quote from @Chris Seveney:
Curious for those who are active in the space.
Do you currently see it as a buyers or sellers market right now?
Do you think in 90 days this will have changed?
Love to get your feedback and opinions.
maybe with less competition the buyers that quit trying because of constantly getting beat out and they got buyer fatigue will come back to the party.
- Real Estate Agent · Washington DC · Member since 2016 · 847 posts · 656 votes4y
Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:
Quote from @Jack Seiden:
I guess if you want to be technical it’s still a buyers market, but it’s definitely cooled off significantly (Especially in the cities D.C. and Baltimore) Suburbs are holding up much better. That said the market just has a different feel then I’ve seen it since I’ve stated in 2015. Maybe this is more feel based but pretty much every investor and buyer I talk to feels like the party is over and values are coming down. We can debate the technicals but if at a certain point everyone thinks prices are coming down then they do (Consumer confidence is the entire economy to some basic extent.)Quote from @Chris Seveney:
Curious for those who are active in the space.
Do you currently see it as a buyers or sellers market right now?
Do you think in 90 days this will have changed?
Love to get your feedback and opinions.
maybe with less competition the buyers that quit trying because of constantly getting beat out and they got buyer fatigue will come back to the party.
I think that’s quite likley, we see a 5-10% drop over the next 6 months or so, flush out some speculators, and by next spring market enter a new and stable equilibrium.
- Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes4y
Quote from @Chris Seveney:
Curious for those who are active in the space.
Do you currently see it as a buyers or sellers market right now?
Do you think in 90 days this will have changed?
Love to get your feedback and opinions.
None of the above....
Those who have read my stuff over some time know I put my $ where my mouth is, and that includes market predictions and analysis, I am the "odd Duck" who is willing to actually own what I say. Ok, that said, I see the above framework as being a primary problem for most in comprehension of things today, that we try to keep seeing things now and forward with yester-years lenses.
I STRONGLY see this as neither a buyers or seller market, it's a very different market, one we have not seen or had since the 19-teens/twenties, and that's not even exact but the closes similar one to reference. I see a NEO-Stagflation market, I am 90%+ certain of this and am putting myself out there that barring a major "Black-Swan" event on level of say China invading Taiwan and U.S. actively engaged in full scale war, I predict by mid November this word "Stagflation" will become commonly heard as COVID became in similar speed of time. Come end of Q1 '23' the effects of such will be a daily norm and widely accepted reality and of it's presence.
We have this weird mix of a disparity gap going way WAY off the charts, it was already bad enough but this inflation cycle is thermo-nuclear war on the working middle class, and savings will only last so long before the true impact of what's happening is being felt. We have an epic press of dependency on Big Gov., and as sure as night follows day that means equally BIG taxation to follow, because the $$$ tree is the working class, not sure why 50%+ of population has a disconnect on this fact.
So we are experiencing an odd mix of persons affordability and non-affordability. It truly is as the Oracle of Omaha warned, the greatest transference of wealth in human history. We didn't get it, then ignored it, and are now living it.
Home prices are having this weird micro variation in like kind; I see luxury doing awesome, luxury descending, median doing great, median contracting, about the only generalized stability is "affordable" housing which let's be real, what's now in the bucket for "affordable" is rather mind bending some days isn't it, "affordable" housing is in epic short supply and monumental demand, with inputs making such all but impossible to fulfill in any meaningful volume.
Can anyone call such a sellers or buyers market? It depends on the seller, and the buyer, and to week really not to mention about 18 other factors.
The only generalized true statement I can find is "Volatile".
I am still ready to purchase on a deal, but I approach it with a lot of D.D. and assortment of contingency planning. It's not yesterdays market, nor yester-years, yester-decades or even, I fear yester-generations. I see it getting really REALLY rough for the working class, blue and blue/white collar, and it's wrong, just flat out wrong.
- Property Manager · Raleigh, NC · Member since 2014 · 729 posts · 596 votes4y
@Chris Seveney
Currently sellers market. I do feel this will start to change in some areas.
- 4yPeter MckernanBusiness MemberResidential Real Estate Agent · Irvine, CA · Member since 2013 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
Quote from @Chris Seveney:
Curious for those who are active in the space.
Do you currently see it as a buyers or sellers market right now?
Do you think in 90 days this will have changed?
Love to get your feedback and opinions.
The market in the primary home sector of California is still very hot and is still a seller's market. The secondary market which is where people do not need to live and were buying second homes cause money was cheap are the homes that are getting hit the hardest in CA. The secondary market is a heavy traveled city that people use for vacationing. I have heard the same across the board in other areas of the country that are the same. We are still getting a lot of offers on turnkey properties that are flipped. The properties that are in okay condition are sitting for awhile and now people/sellers cannot get away with just listing their home for whatever they want and get it.
Keep in mind that the pricing as the rates go up will drop on the unrealistic home seller's and the primary housing areas will still be solid until we get to a 90-120 days on the market which is a buyer's market. I think that we are still awhile from that and the inventory going into this is what is keeping everything afloat to where people can still sell for a good price and get it!
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