Nashville Past, Present, and Future: A History Lesson & What To Do.

What is Going on in Nashville?

We all know everyone has been watching and/or playing in the Nashville market for a while now.  If you are just showing up,  you are either intrigued by the growth and prices or terrified of them.  If you have been here for any length of time, you are likely disgusted, annoyed, and convinced the "good times" (and deals) are over.  

Me? I have seen it all before and I plan to see it all again. 

A Brief Nashville Market History

Most of you know that I was born and have always lived in Nashville. My family before me was the same -as far back as I am aware. I basically grew up in the transitiion of the Nashville market and may have caused some of the changes, actually -at lease where rentals are concerned.

It all began my graduation year, 1998. I was asleep on the sofa in East Nashville when chaos took hold. A tornado ripped through our neighborhood and those surrounding it, changing the look of the city forever. Literally, the next day the entire place looked different than it had my whole life - tree lined roads completely gone, buildings gone, and tons of historically significant homes and building just destroyed. It was so bad, that we couldn't return to school for the last of our senior year and they installed free payphones (funny huh) at the school parking lot.

What happened next is history...... Overnight these old dilapidated homes from the 1900's were just destroyed. Most of them were for sale for $10k-17k all around Eastland and areas that are now in the millions. You couldn't run fast enough to give them to someone a few months before. Kids I went to school with were working hard as they could to get away from here and now they were either selling and running with the insurance money, fixing them up like never before, or abandoning them or selling for nothing because they didn't have insurance.

I graduated that year, but I got my real estate license in 2005 which was the start of the first boom in East Nashville. People began showing up with money like this town had never, seen buying up these half ruined historical homes and fixing them up in ways people living there couldn't afford for decades. I started working with investors then -fixing up and renovating old homes.

The market took off and everything was selling at what we thought were insane amounts at the time. I believe I was the first person to ever sell an East Nashville home for over $200 per sqft foot on a home under 1000 sqft.

Then of course came the recession. I saw people walk away from millions of dollars in investments just to keep the cash they had. I saw tons of foreclosures and eventually ended up running a team that handled short-sales and foreclosures. I cannot remember now, but I think at one point we were selling and or listing around 200 per month. It was crazy and also very sad.

After that investors swooped in again like vultures and got some of the best deals ever seen at the expense (sadly) of a lot of bankrupted and displaced people.

In 2013, things took off again only this time I started focusing on the rental market which was an untapped area that had been stagnate for years. I began marketing rentals like sales listings and raising prices and the idea took off.

Things were smooth sailing from 2013 until 2023. Now, I will say that after 2017 and especially after 2020 things took a weird turn. Supply increased which made rentals not as hot and everyone trying to push the highest price sort of hit its ceiling and the hype wore off a bit. in 2022, the sales market suddenly exploded in a way I had never seen, even more shocking (in my opinion) than in 2005 because it was sort of overnight. It was that sales prices were almost double and without much reason except offers were coming in on everything (especially in certain areas) like crazy. No one was even allowing or doing inspections, which is a horrible idea, but that was where we were then.....crickets. Interest rates increased, supply went up, and demand went down. The hype wore off and I think a lot of people hit their limits here. Investments were now being bought by homeowners also househacking. Investors couldn't buy decent deals nor compete with live-in buyers. The odd thing was this was really the first time it hit the rental and the sales market at the same time.

The Current Truth...

No matter what someone promises you or you see someone bragging about online, sales and rentals in Greater Nashville are not better than they were pre-2022. They are not and that is a lie told by in people in denial, inexperienced, trying to sell you on something, or basing it off of skewed results.  Based on national information, the amount of professional organizations we are in (for sales and rentals), and networking with other companies behind the scenes. We are all seeing and feeling it. There is an agent here with a team that was pushing millions of dollars of listings from basic investments to luxury homes and they were down around 60-70% in 2023-2024. I do think things are turning around ESPECIALLY in the better time of year.

But since 2023, I have definitely seen lots of homes sit on the market for a year or more from top agents with exceptional marketing. This applies to both sales and rentals and varying types of property, that is the cold hard truth.  You can deny it, you can finangle your own stats to say differently, quote inconsistent or one-off situations, or blatantly lie to yourself and anyone else if that makes you sleep better, but it doesn't change the facts.

So What Do We Do? Should We Sell Everything? Should We Pass on Nashville?

Of course not. If the Nashville market has taught me anything, it is that it always heats back up and there is always a way to find and make deals work. None of the biggest and smartest investors I know have stopped investing. They just do it a bit differently and change their expectations.

I remember in 2013 when everyone was so mad they didn't buy in 2008 (or couldn't) that they kept passing deal after deal in 2013 swearing it was overpriced and they would never make money and all the good deals were gone. In 2022, people were mad they didn't pay the 2013 prices. Nashville while not affordable by the standards of most of the locals, is still very affordable compared to a lot of places nationally. It has not tapped out. Now, interest rates are another story. That is always a consideration, but those too change.

But if you are realistic, take care of your property, budget, and make smart choices on purchases and repairs -I absolutely think you can thrive as well as survive in this market. I just think change is here and people don't love change (especially financial change) like getting the same deals in 2013 or treating property like it was treated in 2005. The area is changing and you have to embrace and change with that just like we do, but it will continue to grow and be profitable. We are already seeing some adjustment to the investments being listed where they are more reasonable again.

But renting for higher rent time after time in under 2 weeks (or sometimes even 30 days) is not the norm anymore.  Selling homes for double the value with almost no work and in under 24 hours is also not the norm anymore.  At least, not right now.  You can still rent and sell and do these very successfully, but you have to be smarter and more creative.  You have to EVOLVE with the market and not fight it or be completely stubborn and unrealistic.


Current Focus...

Ours is always first, on our clients.  We as a company (and investors and property owners in our own right) always focus on evolving and figuring out ways to not only stay relevant, but essential.  We find out where the problems are and we fix them.  You can do that as well, but it will take you out of your comfort zone and make you not only think, but action that thinking.

The Future

I am not a fortune teller or I wouldn't be on this blog with you right now.  : )  

However, I am an expert on Nashville and based on the history of having lived here for 45 year and working in real estate 20 through the tornado, the boom, the fallout, the second boom, the flood, COVID, and the time after, I can say it typically survives.

Nashville is not a city that waits for anyone to bail it out.  If you have ever been here after a flood or tornado, you know no one is standing around waiting for assistance outside of Nashville.  You look outside and people are pulling out boats, trucks, chainsaws, and whatever they need to just help each other and survive.

I can't make guarantees or promises, but my bet would be on Nashville keeps going and in 2030 people will be sitting around whining they missed the deals in 2025 and 2026 just likey did in 2022 about 2015 and 2013 about 2008 and in 2005 about 1999.  This was just during my lifetime.  I am sure it happened before that as well, I just wasn't here for it.

I think it will ebb and flow.  I think some years you will get better deals and others based on the work you put in, the resources you have, and the strategies you use.  There is not one right answer on how to be successful in real estate and all of those ways will likely be more or less successful at different times.

We are still not the highest priced city in the country by far and until that happens, I suspect we will grow and values will go up.

You will have to change your numbers and expectations.  No city keeps the same prices or numbers forever.  You have to adjust.  If you do not, you will sit on the sidelines while others find ways to make deals work and prices will still go up and you will still likely be waiting for things to "go back to the way they were" while everyone else and the market passes you by.

***This is an excerpt I sent to our property management clients along with our plan for how to adjust to the new market. If you are interested in becoming a client, you can get that full information, but this is a summary for the purpose of this blog.