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Posted about 3 years ago

Interest Rates - What are they going to do?

Over the past couple of years we have seen interest rates and markets that we will probably never see again in our lifetime between low interest rates and the insanely competitive nature of the market. 

But what are interest rates going to do over the next few months? It's hard to say but if we look back at the historic trends of interest rates since 1971 we can make a few predictions. 

This graph (can be found using this link - 30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rate - Historical Chart) shows the historic interest rates since 1971. You can see how they were at their absolute highest in 1980 but have slowly and steadily declined over time to the present.
 

If you look at the interactive chart via the link provided you will see that almost every 10 years the previous low was retraced but interest rates never went back above that. 


For example: July 2008 interest rates were at about 6.5%. July 2018 they were at about 4.5%. August 2010 they stayed around 4.3% while in August 2020 they were at 2.9%. Now were in August of 2022 where interest rates have hiked their way up and seemingly stabilized around 5.3%. We haven't retraced past and remained at 2008's high of 6.5%. August 2011 established rates around 4.2% while in Aug. 2021 we saw rates around 2.8%. 

I will address the elephant in the room that Aug. 2012 had rates around 3.5% and we've currently retraced and stabilized past that at 5.3% which is a huge increase and flaws the rest of my logic. However, I truly believe there is far more supportive evidence following the 10 year trends that support my following statement. 

January of 2013, rates were around 3.5%. Assuming these historic 10 year trends continue it may be okay to assume they will stabilize around 4% by January 2023. 

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If we draw straight lines across all the highest interest rates from 1980 to 2023 the overall trend is even more obvious.

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This is just my prediction but I think unlike the stock market this is fairly safe to assume. I personally feel it's unlikely we will retrace any higher than we have and we will see rates start to come down as things begin to calm down in our market. 


Comments (1)

  1. Thanks for sharing this, it's a very helpful post.