Mortgage Bankers Weekly Update: Purchase Applications 35% Below Last Month
Mortgage Bankers Association for the week of 6/9/2010
Market Composite Index: (loan application volume) decreased 12.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. This week's results include an adjustment to account for the Memorial Day holiday
Refinance Index: decreased 14.3 percent from the previous week and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 5.7 percent from one week earlier
Purchase Index: decreased 16.3 percent compared with the previous week and was 30.4 percent lower than Memorial Day week last year.
Refinance Share of Mortgage Activity: decreased to 72.2 percent of total applications from 73.8 percent the previous week. This is the first decline in the refinance share in five weeks
Arm Share: decreased to 5.1 percent from 5.2 percent of total applications from the previous week, which is the third consecutive weekly decrease.
MBA outlook: (Excerpted from mbaa.org)
We predict that mortgage originations will fall to $1.37 trillion in 2010 from an estimated $2.1 trillion in 2009, a 35 percent decline. Purchase originations will decline very slightly by around 3 percent to $717 billion, as home prices stabilize, and home sales increase. Refinance originations will fall by about 52 percent to $656 billion in 2010 as mortgage rates are expected to rise through the year. Refinance volumes in the first half of the year are likely to be somewhat higher than anticipated in prior forecasts as rates decreased sharply in recent weeks due to the crisis in Europe. We have adjusted our refinance forecast upwards in response.
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Comments (4)
Great article topic Howard. I've been trying to figure out post tax credit real estate results.
Tom Bukacek, about 15 years ago
Basically, its uncertainty about jobs and price. People are really afraid of a double dip - just as things look better we get Greece and they look to be entering a phase we are just coming out of. Its a long bottoming process
Howard Sobel, about 15 years ago
Howard, why do you think refi activity is also down, despite new record low rates?
Jon Klaus, about 15 years ago
do you know where I can find a chart of historical mortgage originations? I would be interested to see where 2010 is in comparision to previous years as 2006-2009 are such dramatic years!
Kevin Kaczmarek, about 15 years ago