It's not too hot and not too cold; it's just right!

"It's not too hot, and not too cold; it's just right . . ." 

Yep, Goldilocks and the three bears will help us investors out today.

Is this how you have felt the past 6 years--no matter what you have done, have you ended up being someone else's dinner?:

Well, times are changing for the better.

Counter-offers are my #1 market litmus test, and in the last 7 days, I got 8 of them (and one deal). So I officially declare that the market is "just right" for rehabbers again.

We all know the market has been too hot. We have been in the McCafe'-lawsuit hot stage! But late summer and interest rate hikes are now entering people's consciousness.

It has been nothing but UP-UP-UP for the last 6 years -- a true rocket ride. For example, one of my clients bought a rental with my help in Feb of 2015 for $177k, and is now planning on selling for $285k. Not a bad return of around 50% in just 3.5 years. That is good crazy!

Utah is still ranked in the top 5 for business nationally, and I get calls from investors in California and other states regularly. (I even got one from New Zealand!) So I don't see any cause for alarm, but I think we may finally get a FLAT spell for the next 6 to 8 months.

Oddly, I am actually looking forward to it because this market needs a pause. I don't see a dip or a crash on the horizon, but finally the conditions are "Just Right" for flippers.

To find and exit good flips in 2 to 6 months, we really want a market that is in one of these stages:

• flat
• slightly down
• slightly rising

If the market is "too hot" like during the past 6 years, then no one wants our low ball offers--they only have to wait 5 min for a full price cash offer.

If the market is "too cold" like 2009-2012 in Utah, then everyone is spooked and nothing works - until we get near the bottom. (No joke--in 2012, 50% of my deals were short sales.)

But this market is "just right." The average DOM (days on market) in Salt Lake county is starting to rise again. It's not below 8 like it was this spring, and it's not over 100 like it was in 2011. Notice the purple line below, which says it is time for a slowing season. Prices should be flat to slightly down and days-on-market should slightly rise. Notice how with each fall, the days on market starts to rise until Jan/Feb.

Seller psychology. This slight fall tapering is great for rehabbers. The psychology of the seller is this--they are afraid.  They are more afraid of not getting their house sold than the rehabber is afraid of not making a decent profit. I have seen it for many years now. 

So buy right this fall and you should be fine. But get in and get out as fast as possible.  Andy make those offers!!! I believe you should have more success now than any time in the last 6 years. I'd love to help you in that task.

And... please don't feed the bears.