The bottom line is that the pace of our recovery in 2021-22 will depend not only on the course of COVID-19, as well as development of vaccines and therapies, but also government policy.

The strategy is to stretch on again off again lockdowns as far into the future as possible until there is a vaccine that they can force everyone to take. 

Vaccine coming out, forcing people to go back to the office, NYers not panic buying into NJ, foreclosures will start up as well.

These are based on linear interpolation model, 3 peaks of Covid, a vaccine coming June 2021 and a 3 month delay in market reaction.

If Blackstone and Starwood are still investing I do not see why I would be waiting for a pullback or an election or a change in interest rates or a vaccine.

Most hotel owners know once there is consumer confidence with a vaccine, there is going to be a massive surge of travel so even owners with distressed assets are trying to keep them alive because unlike the GFC in 2008, there seems to be a more clear end to this recession.

Plus, the vaccine is getting rolled out which will curb the spread tremendously.

Another data point that will affect the job market is that 42% of employers are going to require a vaccination and this is going to cause a legal battle.

Currently there is a landlord in Florida requiring tenants to get vaccinated or be kicked out.

.: because those that aren't vaccinated seem to be dying like flies.