Determine your approximate Rehab costs and subtract it from the ARV to get your offer price.Use all the negative things (Vacancies, poor condition, Rehab/Pending CapEx, lack of data) to justify your discounting the price.  

Remember, you make your $ on the buy... you need to have enough of a margin in there to hang if/when the market dips.  

Based on my due diligence of the property, there should be around a 6 figure profit margin on resell.

First investment property was a foreclosed duplex in West Allis bought in 2009 at what looked like a $90k discount. 

Some numbers that I have come up with that I think will make it meet my criteria for being a possible deal are as follows:Asking price: 37,500ARV: 68,000Rent: $800Cash flow: $378/monthIf I can keep the rehab costs under $15,000 I think it will make my all-in price at enough of a discount that I can make the deal work. 

I don't know the numbers, but it looks like you are buying it at a great discount so it might work out. 

Most banks are not set up to own homes, and are often motivated to sell you the home at a discounted price."

With a FSBO you're going to have to get it at a pretty substantial discount below what he has "listed" for.

Unfortunately, being out of state means I can't always buy at a steep discount and forced appreciation isn't really an option.

Everything else was marginal to acceptable.