What's going to happen to NY City?
Real Estate Broker · Cody, WY · Member since 2010 · 28k+ posts · 41k+ votes
The DIY Landlord Book4.7248 Reviews
What's going to happen to NY City?
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Rock Star Extraordinaire · Northeast, TN · Member since 2015 · 10k+ posts · 16k+ votes
5yOriginally posted by @Nathan Gesner:
There aren't enough renters to build demand so prices are dropping. They're dropping so low that Landlords are choosing to keep the units vacant rather than fill them at reduced prices. In August, they warehoused over 5,000 apartments and rates have dropped to their lowest since 2010, a 15% decrease in just one year.
https://www.businessinsider.co...
Will New York continue to bleed, or do you think this is a temporary thing?
Definitely temporary. I grew up there and it's hard to count how many times NYC's obituary has been written. 60s, 75 bankruptcy, 80s drug wars, 9/11, 2008 crash. If NYC ever *really* falls apart and starts seriously going down the tubes it will be a national phenomenon.
Skyline Properties
186 Replies
- 5yWill FraserPro MemberReal Estate Broker · Salt Lake City & Oklahoma City · Member since 2018 · 3k+ posts · 2k+ votes
This is a prescient question, @Nathan Gesner! It's hard to fathom NYC not rebounding and going back to some close resemblance of its former glory, but then again the world just got turned half-way upside down and the next year or so may sufficiently turn the world fully upside down. Perhaps in that inversion the massively priced concrete jungle won't fare as well as . . . say the Dubais or the world and the greener pastures of the US.
- Rock Star Extraordinaire · Northeast, TN · Member since 2015 · 10k+ posts · 16k+ votes5y
Originally posted by @Nathan Gesner:
There aren't enough renters to build demand so prices are dropping. They're dropping so low that Landlords are choosing to keep the units vacant rather than fill them at reduced prices. In August, they warehoused over 5,000 apartments and rates have dropped to their lowest since 2010, a 15% decrease in just one year.
https://www.businessinsider.co...
Will New York continue to bleed, or do you think this is a temporary thing?
Definitely temporary. I grew up there and it's hard to count how many times NYC's obituary has been written. 60s, 75 bankruptcy, 80s drug wars, 9/11, 2008 crash. If NYC ever *really* falls apart and starts seriously going down the tubes it will be a national phenomenon.
Skyline Properties - Rental Property Investor · Member since 2020 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes5y
This is interesting, prices are down and with rent control it will take a while to get back up to previous market so landlords are choosing to leave places vacant rather then provide more affordable housing, who would have thought? Just kidding that's obvious. I also wonder though if covid rules and eviction moratoriums are playing into this as well. Rents are down plus if you do end up with a deadbeat your stuck with them which is further incentive to just sit on the investment. I think it will come back as people that moved out of NYC will get bored in the suburbs and once everything opens back up they will want to come back. There was just no point for paying a premium to live in NYC when the attractions you were paying to live near were closed. Also another strategy I just though of is I wonder if this could be a great time to get rid of your rent controlled tenant that you have been stuck with. If you just keep raising the rates by the max allowed other pastures may start to look greener now that rates are down and they may be able to find a nicer place to live at about the same cost they are paying or less.
- Real Estate Broker · Cody, WY · Member since 2010 · 28k+ posts · 41k+ votes5y
Originally posted by @JD Martin:
Definitely temporary. I grew up there and it's hard to count how many times NYC's obituary has been written. 60s, 75 bankruptcy, 80s drug wars, 9/11, 2008 crash. If NYC ever *really* falls apart and starts seriously going down the tubes it will be a national phenomenon.I have to wonder if this isn't different. People are leaving New York, but they're also leaving California, Oregon, and Illinois. A lot happened last year (lost businesses, riots were allowed to destroy businesses, defund the police, increased regulations, etc) that seems to be scaring people away from major cities. If rents have dropped to below 2010 rates, how long will it take New York to recover?
The DIY Landlord Book4.7248 Reviews - Rental Property Investor · Red Bank, NJ · Member since 2017 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes5y
The real draw of the city is in what it provides vs. the expense (both monetarily and emotionally). The culture and cachet you pay for...
Right now NYC provides zero. After 9/11 all the bars, restaurants, museums and theatre's were still open. That is no longer the case. They will no doubt return, but things will be different. And I think that is something we can all agree on.
Having a spouse who works in the city I can tell you, this time it is different. Had we had the technology and infrastructure in place after 9/11, the city would not have rebounded the same. One world center, the crown of the financial district is struggling to fill space and bleeding tenants to NJ and elsewhere.
After 9/11, there was a drain to Jersey City because of proximity. Now there is a drain to North Carolina, Texas and India because of technology.
Compounding this is the huge expense to live in the city. And, like an addict, the city and NY have become addicted to the huge tax. We have been inundated with those who have fled. It has throttled the property market in NJ where there is open space, great schools and an easy commute to the city for the occasional meeting. It is actually easier to get to Manhattan from many of these areas in NJ then from Brooklyn!
I will be surprised if the city/state government does not begin going after those landlords who warehouse. The mob which now runs the city is up in arms that they dare not rent their property to the lowest bidder!
I have little doubt that NY will return but it will be different then it is today. Just as business travel will return, but be different then today.
NYC in the 80's was pretty damn cool, btw!
- 5yBjorn AhlbladPro MemberInvestor · Shelton, WA · Member since 2017 · 6k+ posts · 6k+ votes
Empty office buildings and boarded up store fronts will continue for now perhaps longer. Violent street crime will build until permissive politicians are voted out. Foreign investment has shifted to other places already. The pizzaz is so hard to get back once it has fizzled. I hope the New Yorkers are able to recover.
Detroit changed forever largely due to politics, racism, violence and corruption, it was literally the center of the universe from the 1920's until the 1960's. They say it is coming back somewhat.
- Investor · New York City, NY · Member since 2014 · 289 posts · 374 votes5y
This is temporary. As a resident of midtown, I'll tell you the neighborhood is almost back to normal. Every so often something happens where people say, NYC is dead! And every time it comes back. Sure restaurants and bars are operating at reduced capacity but given the recent nice weather, people are ready to get back to normal. Last night I had a 45 minute wait to get into a restaurant.
- Real Estate Agent · New York City · Member since 2020 · 818 posts · 639 votes5y
The rental market will continue to waiver as more supply gets released even as demand picks up, but sales should increase. New York is more affordable than ever - especially Manhattan. Both with respect to previous time periods and the surrounding suburbs.
The market has probably bottomed - transactions were up +70% last month and this will likely continue as the vaccine rolls out.
- Rental Property Investor · Sioux Falls, SD · Member since 2015 · 9k+ posts · 18k+ votes5y
@Nathan Gesner I have been a frequent business traveler to NYC for many years. Even in 2019, I noticed a change in the city. More homeless people peeing on the sidewalks, people smoking marijuana in the streets and overall less policing. Even prior to the "defund" movement, they were telling police to stand down as water and objects were thrown at them. I am not a "police state" guy, but no human deserves to be treated like that doing their job. It is really messed up mentality that a government and it's citizens think that is ok.
We had a week long family vacation planned in NYC for June 2020. We had a hotel in Times Square, tickets for Broadway shows and a statue crown tour. Between hotel and tickets, we had thousands of dollars committed. We had to cancel the trip because the governor shut all the hotels to out of state visitors. At one point Governor Cuomo had South Dakota on the "no travel list" to NY because of infections in our state. The ironic part is after infections got out of control in NY, all the residents fled the state and spread COVID around the country. South Dakota and Florida didn't block all his residents from coming to our states to spread COVID. How does Cuomo think the rest of the country got infected?
We would have rebooked the trip to NYC, but Broadway is still closed, restaurants are closed and the governor can do what he wants. I am not going to book a trip, only to have the governor make me cancel again. My family has a trip booked to Florida staying at an Airbnb. We are going to travel to states that we can trust and spend our money there. There are lots of great states, like Wyoming and other beautiful western states.
I am just one person and one experience. I know there are countless stories of people leaving NYC to head south. I believe NYC will rebound, but it will take time. They need to restore law and order, get businesses open and keep them open. That won't happen with current leadership.
- Real Estate Broker · Cody, WY · Member since 2010 · 28k+ posts · 41k+ votes5y
Cuomo did everything he could to prevent the spread of COVID-19, but nursing homes can only fit so many sick people!
The DIY Landlord Book4.7248 Reviews - Specialist · Easton, PA · Member since 2018 · 1k+ posts · 2k+ votes5y
@Nathan G.
The city will definitely come back, it may take some time and may never be what it was unfortunately. Wife and I love NYC, we are about 1.5 hours away. We will usually go in 4-5 times a year, get a hotel for the weekend and just walk and enjoy and eat amazing food. Would love to live there if we could afford it. (My family is from Brooklyn so I spent a lot of my childhood there).
We have not been since covid hit, but cannot wait to go back.
- Rental Property Investor · Sioux Falls, SD · Member since 2015 · 9k+ posts · 18k+ votes5y
Originally posted by @Nathan Gesner:
Cuomo did everything he could to prevent the spread of COVID-19, but nursing homes can only fit so many sick people!
Not his fault, he was too busy playing ***-grab with government employees and collecting Emmy awards.
- 5yBjorn AhlbladPro MemberInvestor · Shelton, WA · Member since 2017 · 6k+ posts · 6k+ votes
Once the Je ne sais quoi starts running out coming back is that much harder and takes longer!
- Member since 2020 · 2 posts · 7 votes5y
@Nathan G.
NYC will not return to its original glory for some time.
Covid changed how we work. I don’t need to work in the city anymore. I can work remotely and my work is fine with that. Now I live in the Poconos and traveling when I need to and I don’t have to pay the expensive city tax. Why would I go back?
I have so many friends in the same situation and their companies are not opening up offices again in the city. It cost them too much money and they now see the benefits of letting their employees work remote and not paying for the office space. Internet connections now support remote work and we are all comfortable with the technology available to us.
New York City has banned airbnb and people just don’t like hotels anymore. What can I say, my short term rental business has been relocated to another state.
- Rock Star Extraordinaire · Northeast, TN · Member since 2015 · 10k+ posts · 16k+ votes5y
Originally posted by @Corey MacPhee:
@Nathan G.
NYC will not return to its original glory for some time.
Covid changed how we work. I don’t need to work in the city anymore. I can work remotely and my work is fine with that. Now I live in the Poconos and traveling when I need to and I don’t have to pay the expensive city tax. Why would I go back?
I have so many friends in the same situation and their companies are not opening up offices again in the city. It cost them too much money and they now see the benefits of letting their employees work remote and not paying for the office space. Internet connections now support remote work and we are all comfortable with the technology available to us.
New York City has banned airbnb and people just don’t like hotels anymore. What can I say, my short term rental business has been relocated to another state.
Only people who work remote think that everything works just as good only cheaper. Those of us who have had to manage people and projects happening remotely can tell you that there is a lot lost without regular interaction - I would say daily but I'm not a Luudite and I can see how a day or maybe even 2 remotely can help focus some jobs, but I will tell you that when everyone is working remote they only concentrate on their silos as if interaction with the rest of the staff is unimportant and as if Zoom can completely replace face to face contact. It can't.
Skyline Properties - Member since 2020 · 2 posts · 7 votes5y
@JD Martin
I partially agree with you. It’s certainly not for every industry. And I do commute to the city from time to time for important meetings that do require us to be in the same room. We have adapted and have found ways to make sure everybody is on task. Necessity drives innovation
- Real Estate Broker · Coppell, TX · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 4k+ votes5y
I think the other trick is that you have an unfriendly business environment. They've done a great job of discouraging Amazon....people can't get their kids in school, they've made restaurants spend money to build indoor dining outside, try to tax income based on where you make it, not where you live, and probably a whole host of other issues. I think you have to have jobs....one interesting thing that I am hearing from customers is they do not want to go back to the office....and they get the impression their employers don't want them to go back either...one buyer told me this week when we were discussing locations is that his employer sold their building while they have been WFH. There is now not a "place" to go back to. He thinks they'll never go back to the office. They're tech, worldwide, so he thinks it doesn't matter if they go back. Will that happen to NYC jobs? If so, less people will want to live in the city I expect. That could in turn hurt retail and hospitality.
- Rental Property Investor · Sioux Falls, SD · Member since 2015 · 9k+ posts · 18k+ votes5y
Originally posted by @JD Martin:
Originally posted by @Corey MacPhee:
@Nathan G.
NYC will not return to its original glory for some time.
Covid changed how we work. I don’t need to work in the city anymore. I can work remotely and my work is fine with that. Now I live in the Poconos and traveling when I need to and I don’t have to pay the expensive city tax. Why would I go back?
I have so many friends in the same situation and their companies are not opening up offices again in the city. It cost them too much money and they now see the benefits of letting their employees work remote and not paying for the office space. Internet connections now support remote work and we are all comfortable with the technology available to us.
New York City has banned airbnb and people just don’t like hotels anymore. What can I say, my short term rental business has been relocated to another state.
Only people who work remote think that everything works just as good only cheaper. Those of us who have had to manage people and projects happening remotely can tell you that there is a lot lost without regular interaction - I would say daily but I'm not a Luudite and I can see how a day or maybe even 2 remotely can help focus some jobs, but I will tell you that when everyone is working remote they only concentrate on their silos as if interaction with the rest of the staff is unimportant and as if Zoom can completely replace face to face contact. It can't.
I have worked remote for ten years and I can tell you it definitely silos you from other employees. The office interaction is sometimes spontaneous and being remote you get left out. You also get passed over for promotion. I read an interesting article that talked about remote work will crease two classes of employees, the career track in the office and remote class.
I can also say that some people take far too much latitude with remote work. You can tell they are not engaged, hearing loud kids in the background or they are not even at home working. Those people will not last past the pandemic. Work from home only works if you actually work. That sounds obvious, but some people are not self starters or think when nobody is watching they can do what they want.
- 5yJason LeePro MemberReal Estate Agent · New York, NY · Member since 2015 · 401 posts · 235 votes
Things look different in the sales market in Manhattan. Number of contract signed in February was up 73% YOY. That's the 3rd straight month of YOY increases. Total number of contracts signed in January and February is highest since 2015. Meanwhile supply is down. We've had 5 straight weeks of 30 or more contracts signed above $4M which is also breaking records going back several years.
- Rental Property Investor · Red Bank, NJ · Member since 2017 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes5y
It is funny when I hear from NYC and Brooklyn landlords... they would have you believe things are fine. It is like listening to Baghdad Bob... "Everything is fine, rents are going up!"
Not so.
Listen, NYC will become more affordable- but with that will become a steep decrease in tax base and a decrease in services.Like I said, 1980's NYC was a blast!
Also @Bruce Lynn brings up an excellent point. It is an absolute effing nightmare to raise children in the city. I think a lot of you would be surprised at the way the system runs, placement tests and having your children scattered in different schools all over the city, miles apart. That doesn't even factor in activities.
Sorry- I love the city as well. But we are amongst 10's of thousands if not hundreds who are not back in offices. You better believe your Baghdad Bob bottom dollar that that has a continuing impact. Back to normal! Delusional.
I agree with @JD Martinundefined and would only add that it is not just supervisors who see it. With that being said, this has demonstrated to old school supervisors who refused to consider it, that a 3 day work from home schedule is absolutely doable.
Am I the only one who is working more hours now? Because I can tell you that in the financial sector- the people working from home are working longer hours today then when they commuted 5 days a week.
- Member since 2020 · 437 posts · 675 votes5y
Here is how this all breaks down and the thinking/answer will depend on if you are a type A or B person.
Type A: Lives, works, invests in NYC or simply has a progressive mindset about cities and their future. This type will tell you without hesitating for a second that NYC is a coiled spring that will surprise people on the upside over the next 3 / 6 / 12 months. This is probably the best time to buy, rent and invest in the city. A once in a decade opportunity.
Type B: Does not live, work, invest in NYC. Either does that 4 states out and mostly does it in middle America. This type will tell you NYC is "dying", there is "too much of crime", "big cities are dying", "there are more homeless people now", "the state is not business friendly"!
Who are you going to believe. I will put my money on Type A. Type B I think had their moment in the sun mostly last year, thanks to a pandemic that humans for the last centuries have been beating to pulp thanks to advances in vaccine science. This city comes back in a big way. As for BI articles, they are all clickbait and often hold no logic, neither on the negative or the positive side.
- Real Estate Broker · Coppell, TX · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 4k+ votes5y
@justin thorpe ... Does all this happen before or after the NYSE moves to Texas? If they move is that the end of Wall Street? If the financial firms are not required to be in the neighborhood anymore do they stay in the neighborhood? Or do they disperse around the country or around the world?
I don't know if that's the trend or not or if that's the future or not but I find it interesting that companies like Goldman Sachs now have three headquarters. If I remember right their employment base in Texas is a little higher now than in New York.
I do have hopes that tourism will come back. I'm not sure if the restaurants and the retail shops depended on tourists or what the mix of local versus tourist business was.
In any case it will be interesting to see what the future is.
is there any chance that NYC becomes another Detroit?
- Member since 2020 · 437 posts · 675 votes5y
@Bruce Lynn
Hi Bruce, if you have friends at Facebook, Amazon, Google, PayPal, Apple and other tech firms, it might help to check in and they will tell you how each of them are lapping up office space in NYC in an unprecedented fashion. Some traditional firms will move in and out. There will be spillover into Texas mostly for back office functions (which will eventually move to India sorry) but the whole darn misconception that Texas is going to gobble up all of NYC and SF Bay Areas businesses is nice wild fantasy! Of course if you know something we don’t feel free to let us know.
- Member since 2020 · 437 posts · 675 votes5y
@Bruce Lynn
Also for what it’s worth, def check in with NYC friends on how listings and rentals are trending on a week to week basis and the numbers will startle!
I would also check in (vs relying on clickbait articles) with friends and family who work in financial firms in NYC. Many are seeing week over week increases in people showing up and working in the office.
NYC won’t become a Detroit. It can but that “event” will coincide with the noise of the alarm clock in the background.
Yup that dream people have of wild things happening just before the alarm clock kills it and wakes them to real life!
- Investor · New York City, NY · Member since 2014 · 289 posts · 374 votes5y
NYC becoming Detroit? In what world? My walk to and from work each day (I'm back in my office since September) shows multiple active construction sites on buildings being built and renovated. Crowded sidewalks, busy restaurants and traffic like there was never any pandemic. Yes, there have been some problems in the last few years, largely thanks to a mayor that no one likes. Are any of them forever problems? Nope. I'm sure some financial services have and will shift to lower cost areas. That's not surprising and it doesn't mean the death of NYC. We aren't a one trick pony. It's interesting to hear people all over the country telling me (not on this forum but in real life) that they keep hearing NYC is a ghost town and no one is there and everything is shut down and how sad that all must be. I'm telling you all from the corner of Madison and 60th where I'm sitting right now, you'd be hard pressed to convince me that anything has changed here.
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