It is a gamble!

It is just too much of a gamble.

I fully admit that in retrospect - it was a huge gamble.

It's only in that scenario that I would break even....so I'd need an even larger crash to have timed the market, so it's a gamble where I'm feeling a bird in the hand is better.  

They may have some references or contacts that they know so that you don't have to gamble on a bad contrator.

Its your gamble on the rate direction.. 

I know I know gambling right .. 

Appreciation or even speculation of appreciation is like gambling and investors tend of to have personalities that shy away from that. 

Don't get me wrong; there are plenty of issues/problems/quirks that old houses have that new houses don't, and an old house can obviously have hidden problems and big repair/maintenance bills too--which is why thorough due diligence is fundamental to REI...but, the point is: a brand new house is not a foolproof solution to repairs/maintenance headaches (and in some cases, a brand new house can be a much bigger gamble than an older house).This is a particularly important lesson for inexperienced investors, who tend to be the most prone to "shiny object syndrome" (the tendency to let nice aesthetics distract from real, underlying issues).

Everyone is gambling, and I keep advising my clients to please not compete with that level of moronic.