The seller estimates a just south of 10k repair bill which i trust to be exactly 2% accurate. 

Richmond is interesting because there are some up and coming neighborhoods but you are taking a little bit of a gamble if you bet on those.

Great posts above,thanks guys, as mentioned above avoid mls but you need to build a relationship with an agent to help you evaluate a property and get a more accurate ARV.

Now, we all know that the gamble is that they "always will" renew & many have been caught with their 5 years ending in a bad lending year putting you at risk of the balloon payment coming due with the bank taking a pass on renewing.

Your guy may have a substance abusers or gambling problem.Everyone has a part in this.

There is alot of information out there but, how does a new person wade through it and learn what is accurate...You say: "Buy it, seller finance it, get on title now."  

People take the time to get educated on how to run the numbers and they genuinely know how to calculate every number associated with buying a property.Then when the time comes to pull the trigger on an offer one of two things happensThey don't offer because they feel there offer is to lowThey don't trust in general that their numbers are accurate, they run numbers for another 3-4 days, overthink it, and the good deal gets scooped up.My point is, if you take ample time to run the numbers and get educated on the entire process you have to trust yourself when it comes time to take action. 

This is more accurate for the "headache" factor than an "as-the-crow-flies" distance.

If accurate you obviously have a decent understanding of the market.

You could do this part on your own, however, given the tight timeline and the fact that all the steps must be completed quickly and accurately, I would recommend you find a realtor who is an expert in short sales in your area.