Appreciation = Speculation

Appreciation = Speculation

Isi NauPro Member
Real Estate Broker · Mililani, HI · Member since 2016 · 217 posts · 253 votes

This seems to be a widely held mantra here.  If you buy in a high appreciation market, you're not investing, you are speculating.  That's not something I have ever heard here in Hawaii.  Probably because it's not true!  Hahahaha.  If you know anything about Hawaii, you know to buy as much real estate as you responsibly can.  This has been true since the late 1800s.  But what does history know?  I've been investing since 2002!   ;)

A closer look at Hawaii.  In 1950 the median price of a single family home was $12k.  The median price is now $760k.  So in 67 years Honolulu has averaged just over 6% appreciation per year.  I would image areas like Los Angeles and San Francisco would show similar data.

During the recent recession, most areas in Honolulu dropped around 15%.  Cumulative!  These seem to be pretty solid figures.  In 67 years annual average appreciation of 6%, and only a 15% cumulative drop during the worst financial crisis of our time.  Is 67 years not a large enough data set to have confidence replace speculation?

If 67 years of sales history can't be relied upon, then neither can rent history.  If calculating future appreciation is speculative, then so would calculating future rents, or any rents for that matter.  That's ridiculous.

In other words, just because we've seen something happen for 67 years, doesn't mean it will happen again?  Wow!  Then why even invest?  I mean speculate.   :)

(This is not about appreciation vs. cash flow.  Both are great.  This is about using data to make educated investments and to help dispel poor advice.)

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Investor / Broker · Brooklyn, NY · Member since 2016 · 665 posts · 1k+ votes
9y

@Isi Nau

@Jay Hinrichs

I certainly didn't expect there to be much posting in this thread.

The majority of BP Investors that NEED cash flow because they can't afford to invest for Appreciation bias their minds to the stable and higher return of Appreciating Markets.

I recently posted about one of my properties that Returned 160% per year ROI for 17 years to demonstrate that if you used your intellect and take into account Future Value, implying calculating Appreciation Rates and future economics, you can take advantage of it and make spectacular results.

Why the prices of these assets are too high for the average Investor alone, Partnering becomes the skill needed to Invest in those markets.

Instead of having a good conversation about it, postings about taking Appreciation into Account (or as I like to say, taking Future Value calculations into Account), which implies knowing your future economics, is non-existent.

INSTEAD, most of the posts will boil down to a calculation on Cash Flow NOW, which is the 1st Year Cash Flow. And it stops there. No thought about the Future.

Funny, when I used to teach about Real Estate in NYC and talk about why you need to take into account the future economics, I emphasized it by using the animal kingdom.

If a Squirrel knows that he needs to gather nuts before the winter, implying that he is preparing for the future, why don't most of us Investors look to calculate the amount of nuts we need for our future winters?

Anyway, I don't expect this thread to grow at all! Only 5% of the people seem to get rich and 95% will remain on the other side.

See this reply in the discussion

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  • Russell BrazilBusiness Member
    Moderator
    Real Estate Agent · Washington, D.C. · Member since 2012 · 17k+ posts · 30k+ votes
    9y

    One thing I think that is interesting is several insinuations in the thread that investing for appreciation means being cash flow negative. I invest with mostly appreciation in mind, and Im cash flow positive on every property I own, and probably while having a low cash on cash return, Im sure I cash flow per door a lot more than many peoples cash flow properties.  

  • Philadelphia, PA · Member since 2017 · 364 posts · 109 votes
    9y
    Originally posted by @Isi Nau:

    This seems to be a widely held mantra here.  If you buy in a high appreciation market, you're not investing, you are speculating.  That's not something I have ever heard here in Hawaii.  Probably because it's not true!  Hahahaha.  If you know anything about Hawaii, you know to buy as much real estate as you responsibly can.  This has been true since the late 1800s.  But what does history know?  I've been investing since 2002!   ;)

    A closer look at Hawaii.  In 1950 the median price of a single family home was $12k.  The median price is now $760k.  So in 67 years Honolulu has averaged just over 6% appreciation per year.  I would image areas like Los Angeles and San Francisco would show similar data.

    During the recent recession, most areas in Honolulu dropped around 15%.  Cumulative!  These seem to be pretty solid figures.  In 67 years annual average appreciation of 6%, and only a 15% cumulative drop during the worst financial crisis of our time.  Is 67 years not a large enough data set to have confidence replace speculation?

    If 67 years of sales history can't be relied upon, then neither can rent history.  If calculating future appreciation is speculative, then so would calculating future rents, or any rents for that matter.  That's ridiculous.

    In other words, just because we've seen something happen for 67 years, doesn't mean it will happen again?  Wow!  Then why even invest?  I mean speculate.   :)

    (This is not about appreciation vs. cash flow.  Both are great.  This is about using data to make educated investments and to help dispel poor advice.)

     If you take into consideration the devalue of a $ that took place since 1950, what real numbers   are we talking about ? How much that property that was 12k realy appreciated. 

  • Real Estate Broker · Chicago, IL · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    9y
    Originally posted by @Russell Brazil:

    One thing I think that is interesting is several insinuations in the thread that investing for appreciation means being cash flow negative. I invest with mostly appreciation in mind, and Im cash flow positive on every property I own, and probably while having a low cash on cash return, Im sure I cash flow per door a lot more than many peoples cash flow properties.  

    While this is true that the 2 aren't mutually exclusive, which is exactly how properties in my area are going, increase in value and cash-flowing, I think most folks use appreciation as their excuse for making a poor cash-flow investment. Example - they plan to make $150/mo/door. But forgot to include vacancy, management, underestimated expenses, and overestimated rent. After a couple years, they realize they are losing $50 every month. BUT! They find out the value of their property went up! Well all of the sudden that was the plan all along, they knew the market was going to go up and never cared about that silly cash-flow.

    When in reality, they were super lucky. They had no knowledge/education to predict such an upward trend continuing over the next 2 years, and had no goal of even expecting an increased value over any time period, let alone a short period like 2 years. That's my gripe with many "appreciationists". Its not a good investment just because you can look back and say so - its a good investment if you predicted this direction and final point from the start.

  • Real Estate Broker · Redwood City, CA · Member since 2014 · 679 posts · 888 votes
    9y
    Matt R. I like your statement:"the only thing passive is appreciation." Everything else is active, whether you hire someone or not. It is a lot of work to get into REI, so without appreciation, it sucks. If taken into consideration of inflation, the positive cash flow may not be that real, unless the property appreciates at or above inflation rate.
  • Investor / Broker · Brooklyn, NY · Member since 2016 · 665 posts · 1k+ votes
    9y

    @Matthew Olszak

    Hi Matt,

    The reality is that all of us who are living in America or a developed First World Country is LUCKY. Compare yourself to those people who are dirt poor with no access to clean water or have anything to eat. We are all LUCKY.

    I do agree wholeheartedly that people don't really understand how to even recognize an opportunity because they don't study things like Economics or even know what's happening to the future of the Asset class.

    BUT, again, we have a lot of Dumb Luck just being an American (or citizen of a developed Country). 

    For most people, I agree, the problem is that we need to understand Luck.

    There's a famous quote that explains luck quite well: “Luck Is What Happens When Preparation Meets Opportunity" by philosopher Seneca.

    This implies 2 things:

    1) You have to be PREPARED to get lucky.

    - Have Money for the Investment

    - Qualify for the Mortgage

    - You have your Partners available for the deal

    2) The Opportunity presents itself

    - A great Deal fell in your lap

    - RECOGNIZE the Opportunity! This is where you need the Education!

    Thrown into this is your Risk Tolerance Level. The Lower your tolerance for Risk, the more you will not do things to achieve that luck, such as buying at a negative cash flow.

    HOWEVER, if you do your Economic Analysis and apply your Future Value Financial calculations using a pro-forma 10 year projection business plan spreadsheet, you are looking just for DUMB Luck.

    BUT, when you build your analysis, apply intelligent assumptions, such as checking with City Planning to find out what Projects have been approved, finding out the future outlook of the industries that support jobs in your area, looking at migration of people (ie... it's fairly predictable that NYC will have a NET inflow of people especially due to Climate Change. Puerto Rico is an example as we have the largest population of P. Ricans out side of PR. Many will move here if Climate Change get worse which is inevitable to me).

    There are so many  things we can Analyze with our Intellect that there is NO Excuse to depend on DUMB Luck.

    If you do your homework (economic Analysis, etc.), you are changing the dependency of DUMB Luck to Intelligent decision making.

    BTW, this also goes towards Cash Flow. If your Analysis says more people will migrate to your area, it means higher Future Rents. This implies higher Cash Flows and that translate into higher Value.

    This topic seems to pop up quite often. Yet, the vast majority of the Threads on BP is only about ONE thing. Cash Flow.

    Very little talk about Economics and a lot of the time it's after the fact. The last thread where there was some economic news on BP that I read was about Cleveland. It seems they are losing population. It would have been nice to have recognized it before people had already put down their Investment Roots there, it seems. But at least that topic came up!

    So I am hoping that BPers will start to think more about making Intelligent Decisions based on Future Economics rather than just hoping for Dumb Luck.

  • Sherman Oaks, CA · Member since 2013 · 3k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    9y
    Originally posted by @David Song:

    Matt R.

    I like your statement:"the only thing passive is appreciation."

    Everything else is active, whether you hire someone or not.

    It is a lot of work to get into REI, so without appreciation, it sucks.

    If taken into consideration of inflation, the positive cash flow may not be that real, unless the property appreciates at or above inflation rate.

    You know, and most on this post know, REI buy and hold is one insane PIA and add liabilty.

    If it don't appreciate ( local cash flow..ers or pros exempt) it more than sucks.

  • Investor · Pueblo West, CO · Member since 2014 · 310 posts · 213 votes
    9y
    Originally posted by @Matt R.:

    Teaching people accounting for appreciation is just speculation is what most of this site preaches 24/7 in all the podcasts, blogs and forums. This ignorance (lack of experience?) and just plain stupid as hell advice,  likely has lost more investors more money than all the other positive BP good advice combined. 

    The worst part is maybe half live in or near a historically appreciating pocket. There are bp endorsed bloggers and self appointed experts teaching Californians not to invest in California if you can imagine that. How much those investors passed on this cycle is in the hundreds of millions?

    That is a real shame for a REI site.

    Another side of the coin is appreciation could be the only passive part of your investment. Someone will have to work for the cash flow part at least we know that much. 

    Lastly, this site was founded by a most well intended gentleman, who stated on a podcast " I don't get investing for appreciation" What the, you must be joking right :) Nope. 

    Good luck!

    I was happy that the host admitted to making a newbie mistake on podcast 222 with Jay Hinrichs. He bought very cheap properties in bad neighborhoods simply because they were cheap. I really appreciate his honesty. He is a great business person with the website, but his real estate story is full with amateur mistakes.

    I like to buy for cash flow and appreciation. I also like to speculate on appreciation of rent, but not necessarily appreciation of price.

  • Investor · Pueblo West, CO · Member since 2014 · 310 posts · 213 votes
    9y
    Originally posted by @Matthew Olszak:
    Originally posted by @Russell Brazil:

    One thing I think that is interesting is several insinuations in the thread that investing for appreciation means being cash flow negative. I invest with mostly appreciation in mind, and Im cash flow positive on every property I own, and probably while having a low cash on cash return, Im sure I cash flow per door a lot more than many peoples cash flow properties.  

    While this is true that the 2 aren't mutually exclusive, which is exactly how properties in my area are going, increase in value and cash-flowing, I think most folks use appreciation as their excuse for making a poor cash-flow investment. Example - they plan to make $150/mo/door. But forgot to include vacancy, management, underestimated expenses, and overestimated rent. After a couple years, they realize they are losing $50 every month. BUT! They find out the value of their property went up! Well all of the sudden that was the plan all along, they knew the market was going to go up and never cared about that silly cash-flow.

    When in reality, they were super lucky. They had no knowledge/education to predict such an upward trend continuing over the next 2 years, and had no goal of even expecting an increased value over any time period, let alone a short period like 2 years. That's my gripe with many "appreciationists". Its not a good investment just because you can look back and say so - its a good investment if you predicted this direction and final point from the start.

    I agree that cash flow and appreciation do not have to be mutually exclusive. It's a cognitive heuristic that people make when forming judgments. It's like science and religion. It's difficult for people to form an opinion in which they both exist.

    I bought a house in fort myers, fl in 2012 for 95K with 5% down. It was a 90K loan at 4%. The house was worth 260K during the housing peak in 2006. My insurance policy for the  house was for 190K even though the house cost 95K. My thought process was that when the housing market recovers in 5-8 years, it should be worth 220K because the lot was worth an additional 30K. It's been 5.5 years and it's worth 235K.

    My mortgage, taxes and insurance is $658/month. In 6 months I will no longer have to pay $42/month in PMI, bringing down the total payment to $616/month. Current rent is $1700/month. If you play your cards right you can have both cash flow and appreciation.

  • Investor · Pueblo West, CO · Member since 2014 · 310 posts · 213 votes
    9y
    Originally posted by @Steve B.:

    Basing your option on the market from your view from Hawaii or San Francisco tends to be as reasonable extrapolating an opinion based on your experience in Detroit. Your suffering from your own confirmation bias. It may end up being correct, or not, but it's definitely suspect.

    I agree that the original poster is making some of the same mistakes as he is criticizing. If someone buys a negative cash flow property and bets on appreciation it is not reckless.

    Humans are loss averse. As a result, a rental that is -$100/month cash flow would scare off most investors because it's "reckless". However, what if you had a 100K bankroll to carry the property? What if the rental appreciated from 400K to 800K in 5 years? Would it be better to buy a house that was $100/month positive cash flow but only appreciated by 250K during the same time? Is it safer? How so?

    Cash flow negative rentals are not reckless if you have the bankroll to fund them. 

  • Isi NauPro Member
    OP
    Real Estate Broker · Mililani, HI · Member since 2016 · 217 posts · 253 votes
    9y
    Originally posted by @Adam Christopher Zaleski:
    Originally posted by @Steve B.:

    Basing your option on the market from your view from Hawaii or San Francisco tends to be as reasonable extrapolating an opinion based on your experience in Detroit. Your suffering from your own confirmation bias. It may end up being correct, or not, but it's definitely suspect.

    I agree that the original poster is making some of the same mistakes as he is criticizing. If someone buys a negative cash flow property and bets on appreciation it is not reckless.

     I apologize, I'm not sure I understand.  I can't find where the original post discussed negative cash flow?

  • Owen DashnerPro Member
    Lender · Omaha, NE · Member since 2008 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    9y

    I have seen the "Appreciation vs. Cashflow" threads pop up on this site since before the crash in '08.  I can tell you that the tone of the threads during a down market cycle is a lot different than it is when you are in the late innings of a strong run-up.  Everyone looks smart when their investments have doubled in value in a short amount of time, but some really smart people also got wiped out during the last crash that saw asset values crater in what are being described as appreciating markets. 

    It's the same thing with investing in businesses (i.e. stocks).  Obviously everyone wants to be in on hyper-growth tech companies like the next Google, but I sure wouldn't put my entire nest egg in a highly volatile sector/asset class where buying at the wrong time could crush me.  It also also makes sense to buy the boring, blue chip assets as part of your portfolio that spin off a steady dividend (rent), even though they don't have large upside.  It insulates from downside risk.  

    So, I don't disagree at all with investing for appreciation, I disagree with the approach of investing only for appreciation.  Keep some steady Eddie assets as part of your portfolio as well as some dry powder to go along with the properties that are in appreciation-driven markets.


  • Investor · Bay Area, CA · Member since 2014 · 165 posts · 45 votes
    9y

    @Owen Dashner Thanks for bringing up the stock market analogy. I think that as in the stock market, you can invest in RE for cash flow (dividends) or for growth (appreciation) or a combination of both. You just have to determine your goals and where on the spectrum you want to be. In both you should do a lot of due diligence. You can use a spreadsheet to do a 10 year projected DCF analysis or a simple analysis on the back of an envelope. Just make sure the inputs are realistic. You can have a concentrated or a diversified portfolio of RE. You can also invest anywhere geographically also you may be constrained by location...how much do you know about OOS markets.... or capital...how much money do you have to invest.

    Given the growth of the RE market, I think this site has probably attracted more newbies that 1) need cash flows and therefore are drawn to OOS low cost opportunities or 2) ones that see all the money that can be made from flipping (the traders in the stock market world).

    It will be interesting to see what happens to the activity on this platform if and when another RE correction takes place. In the meantime, it is a great place to learn from the experienced investors.

  • Joe SplitrockPro Member
    Moderator
    Rental Property Investor · Sioux Falls, SD · Member since 2015 · 9k+ posts · 18k+ votes
    9y

    @Isi Nau speculation is investing in something with the hope of gain but risk of loss. That is real estate in every market. Ultimately if you buy in a good location and take proper care of the property, you are most likely to see appreciation over time. 

    The point people try to make is ONLY investing for appreciation in the short term can be speculation. During the housing crisis people were buying condos in Florida and reselling them months later for profit. When the music stopped and everyone ran, some investors were left with multiple properties they couldn't sell. 

    Most every market shows positive gain over a five or ten year period, so appreciation is almost guaranteed. If for no other reason, inflation will push prices up. The only exception is buying in a highly depressed area where the jobs are gone. In Hawaii the primary industry is tourism, which is driven by your perfect weather. That creates housing demands for workers and tourists. The main things that could affect tourism is some natural or man made disaster. So there is risk, but lower on the spectrum.

    I personally like to invest in property that pays dividends through rent and appreciates. I would rather get money now, so I can reinvest, than have to wait until I sell the property to get paid. That is just my personal strategy. 

  • Ben Lomond, CA · Member since 2016 · 338 posts · 337 votes
    9y

    @Llewelyn A. Thanks for all your advice in this thread. I have been struggling with how to understand investing from multiple angles without only accounting for cash flow. I live in the Bay Area where cash flow is harder to come by so this is really great advice. 

    I also took your advice and purchased Frank Gallinelli's book - I am looking forward to reading it. 

  • Real Estate Investor · Encinitas, CA · Member since 2016 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    9y

    Hey look, I finally get to (in part) disagree with @Jay Hinrichs!  I do believe that historically appreciating markets will continue to appreciate.  Especially in markets like Seattle, San Francisco, San Diego, Santa Monica, etc. You have a huge economic based but you (literally) can't develop to the west.  It's a dang ocean.  If another city had the same economic/employment base you have 360 degrees of development opportunity, not 180.  And I don't think that self-driving cars or remote work environments will fundamentally change that.  But that's more a personal theory of mine.  

    Anyway, the reason why I think that appreciation *in many cases* does equal speculation is because newer investors like/want to bake it into their financials. And they want to do it over a short period of time, let's say 5 years. They want to buy an SFR for 5 years, have it appreciate, and then 1031 into an apartment building! I think that's a crazy assumption to make. Trying to take patterns that hold true over 20 years or 50 years and *assume* that the next 5 years will yield the blended average return of those longer timeframes isn't something I agree with.

    Okay, I'm ready to receive my virtual-flogging now...

  • Russell BrazilBusiness Member
    Moderator
    Real Estate Agent · Washington, D.C. · Member since 2012 · 17k+ posts · 30k+ votes
    9y

    When you own real estate or hard assets, you call it appreciation. When you dont, you call it inflation. Everyone is skeptical of appreciation, but seem certain that inflation is a fact of life.

  • Investor · Kaneohe, HI · Member since 2012 · 218 posts · 104 votes
    9y

    @Andrew Johnson Im a bit confused at your first point.  I see it as a simple supply and demand situation.  Yes you cannot build to the west because there is an ocean which limits supply.  Anywhere in the world there is a demand to live in a coastal city.  Take hawaii for example we have appreciation because of high demand of strategic location for the military, good weather for tourist and some other factors.  We have very little supply because its an island and there are lots of preservation and ag land limiting the amount that can be built out.  Where as the midwest land is super cheap and endless supply that you can keep developing 360 degrees, hawaii having limited supply has super expensive land.  So only being able to develop 180 degrees in Cali limits supply that doesnt keep up with demand and pushes prices up versus the midwest where you have endless supply that will easily meet demand keeping prices low.

  • Real Estate Investor · Encinitas, CA · Member since 2016 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    9y

    @Royce Talbo The first point is in agreement with most of the sentiments here about the reliability of being able to reasonably factor in appreciation.  My point was that you can't do it everywhere.  And even in those markets where you should be able to factor it in, you can't assume that historical data will repeat itself over a narrow time horizon.  If you're a "buy-and-hold for 20 years" investor you can make some appropriate estimations in your modeling.  If you're looking at narrow 3-5 year windows I don't think it's smart of prudent to do that.  And when I read a lot of strategies that the people on BP have so much of it is depending on being able to pull cash out, 1031 down the road into a larger property, get some coastal property for appreciation and then sell it and buy apartments in the midwest for cash-flow, etc.  I don't think it's prudent to think: "I'm going to buy this property today, plan on it appreciating 10% a year for 3 years, and then refinance to pull my original 25% down out of the property!"  I'm not saying that can't happen, I'm just saying I think it's not smart to build your strategy contingent on that being a pillar of it.    

  • Investor · Kaneohe, HI · Member since 2012 · 218 posts · 104 votes
    9y

    @Andrew Johnson i get the second part, what threw me off is that when you said 360 degrees of development opportunity and not 180 degrees, to me seemed to imply that you would rather have somewhere like the midwest that you can keep expanding development and not limiting it.  your reply clears things up for me on what you initially meant.

  • Investor · Middle River, MD · Member since 2017 · 191 posts · 127 votes
    9y
    Originally posted by @Isi Nau:

    This seems to be a widely held mantra here.  If you buy in a high appreciation market, you're not investing, you are speculating.  That's not something I have ever heard here in Hawaii.  Probably because it's not true!  Hahahaha.  If you know anything about Hawaii, you know to buy as much real estate as you responsibly can.  This has been true since the late 1800s.  But what does history know?  I've been investing since 2002!   ;)

    A closer look at Hawaii.  In 1950 the median price of a single family home was $12k.  The median price is now $760k.  So in 67 years Honolulu has averaged just over 6% appreciation per year.  I would image areas like Los Angeles and San Francisco would show similar data.

    During the recent recession, most areas in Honolulu dropped around 15%.  Cumulative!  These seem to be pretty solid figures.  In 67 years annual average appreciation of 6%, and only a 15% cumulative drop during the worst financial crisis of our time.  Is 67 years not a large enough data set to have confidence replace speculation?

    If 67 years of sales history can't be relied upon, then neither can rent history.  If calculating future appreciation is speculative, then so would calculating future rents, or any rents for that matter.  That's ridiculous.

    In other words, just because we've seen something happen for 67 years, doesn't mean it will happen again?  Wow!  Then why even invest?  I mean speculate.   :)

    (This is not about appreciation vs. cash flow.  Both are great.  This is about using data to make educated investments and to help dispel poor advice.)

     You said it yourself...you are in Hawaii...not everyone is. I prefer FORCED appreciation myself, because I can control it and it's faster.

    Ask those who started investing buy and hold in 2005 or 2006 how they feel about appreciation. Many lost their properties or chose to give them back.

    Having said that, I suspect inflation will be on the side of appreciation in both real estate and stocks (company ownership) for a long time to come unless the current system collapses due to debt load.

  • Real Estate Investor · Encinitas, CA · Member since 2016 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    9y

    @Royce Talbo No worries, the hazards of quick replies on forums.  I do invest in the midwest but I skew towards commercial multifamily.  So that means I get to force appreciation through having rents nudge up over the years.  And (for me) there is some downside risk because the market where I invest has been less volatile.  Since you get the lovely 5-7 year fixed rate w/ a balloon terms on a commercial mortgage, well, I wanted something that (if a market correction occurred) I could pay down the mortgage to address the new, lower, appraised value.  It would be easier (financially) for me to handle that on a property with decent cash-flow in a less volatile market than on the coasts.  

  • Investor · Boston, MA · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    9y

    I think that that this post has a clickbaitey title which takes away from the great points which are made in it. 

    @Llewelyn A. hit the nail on the head about the four wealth builders of RE, the role IRR plays, and how lucky we all are to live in the US, Though he did conveniently forget about CAGR when demonstrating his IRR calculation :)

    Cash Flow discussions overshadow not just appreciation, but also talk about, tax advantages, and amortization. The reason is simple: you can teach people to evaluate the cash flow of a property in 50 min; Brandon Turner does this at least once a month on the Webinar. Once you get into the other three, especially appreciation, you enter into much different territory, which requires you to learn about economic drivers, social trends, and the data collection... the list goes on. For example, to do IRR correctly, you have know that it is not some magic calculation that tells you which property to buy, but a very simple model. As a really smart guy said "All models are wrong, but some are useful". You can't learn to effectively model in a night.

     In short, its more difficult to think/learn about the other three, so people don't. There is nothing wrong with that. If they know the property will cash flow and they get the return they want with that, who cares?

  • Investor · MA · Member since 2017 · 20 posts · 7 votes
    9y

    @Llewelyn A. Good work on the math! I am new to BP and have so many questions around this subject. I have a question though on the spreadsheet, is depreciation not part of this calculation or is it only used on the tax return ? I need to know if it is ok to keep this property or sell it. I bought it in 2011 at 240K, put 20% down and the rent was 1500$ fully paying the mortgage+tax+insurance+expenses. I  put 20K into it in 2015 as I moved into it for 1.5 yr until end of 2016.  I am renting it now for 2000$ per month covers all expenses, tax, ins and nets 1200$ . It has appreciated in value and the Zestimate is approx. 425K. My questions is that the rents in the area do not go up as I am at the higher end and if I see historically, the value of the property is back to what it was in the previous high market. Does it make sense to sell it or keep renting it?

    Thanks so much.

  • Investor / Broker · Brooklyn, NY · Member since 2016 · 665 posts · 1k+ votes
    9y

    @Anjali A.

    Hi Anjali.

    Depreciation is a Business deduction meant to allow you to lower your tax bill so you can save to replace the building (legally called the Improvements) on the land. Note, Land is not depreciable, only the improvements are.

    The concept works like this.

    Let's say you own a Limo business. You pay $50k for the Limo and put it to work.

    You are not allowed to take the $50k as an expense.

    Instead, the IRS says that you can smooth out the $50k expense into a life expectancy when your Limo needs to be replaced. Let's say that's 5 years that is allowed by the IRS.

    So, we divide the $50k Limo expense by 5 years and get $10k per year.

    Instead of taking the $50k expense in Year 1 on your tax return, you take $10k as a depreciation expense in year 1, year 2, etc. all the way to year 5.

    We can probably get a better answer from a CPA, but I believe the reason why this is the case is to smooth out the Income.

    In other words, if you took the $50k expense in the year you bought the Limo, your income looks really negative or very low! But in year 2, it pops up by at least the $50k that you didn't need to buy a new Limo!

    BUT, if you depreciated it for $10k per year for 5 years, the Income is not as crazy and it smooths itself out.

    A buyer of the Limo business can basically look at the taxable income and get a clearer idea of your true income versus taking the expense of $50k all at once.

    Remember what I said earlier that the $10k per year depreciation is given to you because you were disallowed to make the full $50k expense on the Limo.

    However, it's also true that the Limo will need to be replaced. So one aspect of this is that every year, your Limo is worth $10k less in reality as well as for tax purposes. So by Year 2, it makes sense your Limo is worth only $40k.

    By year 5, it's worth ZERO. So yes, this expense makes a lot of sense.

    NOW.... Real Estate is a totally different animal.

    While we are allowed to expense the building the same way, the value of the building actually goes UP!!

    So, we are allowed to make a depreciation deduction for a residential building annually for 27.5 years!

    We call that a phantom deduction and it's a huge advantage to save on paying taxes until you sell.

    When you sell Real Estate, you must then recapture the depreciation by paying a tax of around 25% on all the accumulated depreciation. We call that recaptured depreciation.

    There is a way to NOT pay the recaptured Depreciation AND also to defer your Capital Gains taxes.

    OK!!!! I know.... I've beaten it to death and gave you a hell of a lot more info than you need! Sorry about that!

    It's called a 1031 Exchange and I'm sure you can find a lot of BP members that have a lot of knowledge and can service your Exchange to a higher cash flowing property.

    If you do a search for "1031 Exchange" here in Bigger pockets, you'll find plenty of postings.

    As far as advice on what to buy, it's up to you to figure out your strategy.

    What I do think is that everyone should be knowledgeable at least 4 ways of making money in Real Estate: Cash Flow, Appreciation, Mortgage Reduction and Tax Savings.

    I also believe everyone should have a fundamental understanding of Economics so they can make a 10 year pro-forma business plan on their target property.

    I know this doesn't help as much as giving you a direct opinion, but that's really up to you.

    Which ever way you choose, just know that buying a property that moved up from $240k to $450k with a 20% down payment AND making good cash flow for 6 years ago is fantastic! Keep up the good work!

  • Investor · Pueblo West, CO · Member since 2014 · 310 posts · 213 votes
    9y
    Originally posted by @Isi Nau:
    Originally posted by @Adam Christopher Zaleski:
    Originally posted by @Steve B.:

    Basing your option on the market from your view from Hawaii or San Francisco tends to be as reasonable extrapolating an opinion based on your experience in Detroit. Your suffering from your own confirmation bias. It may end up being correct, or not, but it's definitely suspect.

    I agree that the original poster is making some of the same mistakes as he is criticizing. If someone buys a negative cash flow property and bets on appreciation it is not reckless.

     I apologize, I'm not sure I understand.  I can't find where the original post discussed negative cash flow?

    Your post is below. Your argument is that a low cash flow house is better than a high cash flow house because the low cash flow house will have more appreciation. Based on this logic, a negative cash flow house would be a better investment than a low cash flow house. However, you state below that you agree with someone that negative cash flow is reckless. I don't think it makes any sense. However, this irrational thinking could be explained by humans tendency to be loss averse.

    "Agreed. Investing in a high appreciation market with negative cash flow is reckless. Which I think @Llewelyn had a good point on; partner up. Find a way to invest and not go negative each month. There are ways to do it."

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