Short term rental evaluation

[Kevin Reinhardt]

Hey everyone.

Looking for advice on how to evaluate some potential str properties. I have some long term rentals and want to diversify.

I'm looking in a popular beach area in manitoba. There are a lot of air bnb properties already there so I can look at those to try and figure out a nightly/weekly rate. Sites like airdna don't have data on this area yet.

I'm wondering what everyone is doing to estimate or figure out their projected Occupancy rate? This way I can take that and my projected nightly rate to do a cost analysis on the property. Also if anyone has come across random or unique cabin expenses that one wouldn't usually think of feel free to drop a note in here too.

Any and all insight would be welcomed.

Thanks in advance.

Kevin

[Luke Carl]

Enemy method dot com 

Rabu 

Airdna 

Keydata 

Insights 

The list goes on. 

Don’t drive yourself nuts with it :) 

[John Underwood]

Check out Vrbo also. 

Vrbo outperform Airbnb on out Lake house and Mountain Cabin.

[Michael Baum]

I second looking at VRBO. Lake houses seem to bring families and we get a ton of those via VRBO.

[Leslie Anne Morris]

If you’re buying in a well known spot local property management companies can do projections. Better yet see if the local municipality has reports online. If it’s a vacation market they typically do. 

[January Johnson]

When using Luke's Enemy Method, be sure and pay attention to which types of properties he recommends as "comps".  Look for those with >100 reviews, not the newbies - just wanted to underscore that part.  Good luck!

[Allen Wright]

Hey Kevin! STR insights provides great analysis. This membership is pretty pricey compared to others though.

[Trent Reeve]

Quote from @January Johnson:

When using Luke's Enemy Method, be sure and pay attention to which types of properties he recommends as "comps".  Look for those with >100 reviews, not the newbies - just wanted to underscore that part.  Good luck!

 I would say though to also look at the newbies. You arent going to hit the ground running with zero reviews and zero repeat customers and be able to do as well as an established property with 100 reviews. Dont set yourself up for disappointment the first year if you cant hit what the 100 review property does.

[January Johnson]

Quote from @Trent Reeve:

Quote from @January Johnson:

When using Luke's Enemy Method, be sure and pay attention to which types of properties he recommends as "comps".  Look for those with >100 reviews, not the newbies - just wanted to underscore that part.  Good luck!

 I would say though to also look at the newbies. You arent going to hit the ground running with zero reviews and zero repeat customers and be able to do as well as an established property with 100 reviews. Dont set yourself up for disappointment the first year if you cant hit what the 100 review property does.

That's not the point of the Enemy Method.  Your "enemies" are the ones doing it right - the ones with great reviews and an experienced ADR.  The newbies have no track record.  Don't follow them.

Skate to where the puck is GOING, not where it's BEEN.  ;  )

[Trent Reeve]

Quote from @January Johnson:

Quote from @Trent Reeve:

Quote from @January Johnson:

When using Luke's Enemy Method, be sure and pay attention to which types of properties he recommends as "comps".  Look for those with >100 reviews, not the newbies - just wanted to underscore that part.  Good luck!

 I would say though to also look at the newbies. You arent going to hit the ground running with zero reviews and zero repeat customers and be able to do as well as an established property with 100 reviews. Dont set yourself up for disappointment the first year if you cant hit what the 100 review property does.

That's not the point of the Enemy Method.  Your "enemies" are the ones doing it right - the ones with great reviews and an experienced ADR.  The newbies have no track record.  Don't follow them.

Skate to where the puck is GOING, not where it's BEEN.  ;  )

 i understand that. but no one can realistically expect to generate the same revenue as a property with 100+ reviews their 1st year. so should not rely on that estimate to start.

[January Johnson]

Quote from @Trent Reeve:

Quote from @January Johnson:

Quote from @Trent Reeve:

Quote from @January Johnson:

When using Luke's Enemy Method, be sure and pay attention to which types of properties he recommends as "comps".  Look for those with >100 reviews, not the newbies - just wanted to underscore that part.  Good luck!

 I would say though to also look at the newbies. You arent going to hit the ground running with zero reviews and zero repeat customers and be able to do as well as an established property with 100 reviews. Dont set yourself up for disappointment the first year if you cant hit what the 100 review property does.

That's not the point of the Enemy Method.  Your "enemies" are the ones doing it right - the ones with great reviews and an experienced ADR.  The newbies have no track record.  Don't follow them.

Skate to where the puck is GOING, not where it's BEEN.  ;  )

 i understand that. but no one can realistically expect to generate the same revenue as a property with 100+ reviews their 1st year. so should not rely on that estimate to start.

Do you also tell your kids not to aim high because they can't realistically ever do that well?  

The Enemy Method is designed to give you something to aim at, not to dumb it down for newbies.  Please investigate what we are advocating before you contradict it.  You are still missing the entire point.

But pessimists are never disappointed....unless it turns out NOT to be as bad as they thought...  ;  )

[Trent Reeve]

Quote from @January Johnson:

Quote from @Trent Reeve:

Quote from @January Johnson:

Quote from @Trent Reeve:

Quote from @January Johnson:

When using Luke's Enemy Method, be sure and pay attention to which types of properties he recommends as "comps".  Look for those with >100 reviews, not the newbies - just wanted to underscore that part.  Good luck!

 I would say though to also look at the newbies. You arent going to hit the ground running with zero reviews and zero repeat customers and be able to do as well as an established property with 100 reviews. Dont set yourself up for disappointment the first year if you cant hit what the 100 review property does.

That's not the point of the Enemy Method.  Your "enemies" are the ones doing it right - the ones with great reviews and an experienced ADR.  The newbies have no track record.  Don't follow them.

Skate to where the puck is GOING, not where it's BEEN.  ;  )

 i understand that. but no one can realistically expect to generate the same revenue as a property with 100+ reviews their 1st year. so should not rely on that estimate to start.

Do you also tell your kids not to aim high because they can't realistically ever do that well?  

The Enemy Method is designed to give you something to aim at, not to dumb it down for newbies.  Please investigate what we are advocating before you contradict it.  You are still missing the entire point.

But pessimists are never disappointed....unless it turns out NOT to be as bad as they thought...  ;  )

 sorry for helping someone new set realistic expectations. You can aim high, while having a realistic estimate that you can rely on. I understand the Enemy Method, ive mentioned it many time for people to use when they ask about how to estimate the value and numbers of a property. But as a new investor/host, they also need to make sure not to rely on the numbers of a property that is established, with many reviews and likely many repeat customers. They will have to build to it. I invested this year and while the numbers showed that if i knocked it out of the park, i could see $80-90k in rental a year. If i relied on those numbers right out of the gate and used those estimates in running my numbers, i might have gotten in way over my head. But it sounds like you are telling people, see what the property near you with 100+ reviews is doing and expect to see that in your first year.

sorry this triggered a nerve for you, but for many people risking their life savings into this type of investment, you can aim high with a goal, but also set realistic expectations to start with so you dont get into trouble and lose it all. forum boards like this are usually so that you can hear different opinions, research some and decide on what works for you. I'll know in the future to avoid quoting you. 

[January Johnson]

Quote from @Trent Reeve:

Quote from @January Johnson:

Quote from @Trent Reeve:

Quote from @January Johnson:

Quote from @Trent Reeve:

Quote from @January Johnson:

When using Luke's Enemy Method, be sure and pay attention to which types of properties he recommends as "comps".  Look for those with >100 reviews, not the newbies - just wanted to underscore that part.  Good luck!

 I would say though to also look at the newbies. You arent going to hit the ground running with zero reviews and zero repeat customers and be able to do as well as an established property with 100 reviews. Dont set yourself up for disappointment the first year if you cant hit what the 100 review property does.

That's not the point of the Enemy Method.  Your "enemies" are the ones doing it right - the ones with great reviews and an experienced ADR.  The newbies have no track record.  Don't follow them.

Skate to where the puck is GOING, not where it's BEEN.  ;  )

 i understand that. but no one can realistically expect to generate the same revenue as a property with 100+ reviews their 1st year. so should not rely on that estimate to start.

Do you also tell your kids not to aim high because they can't realistically ever do that well?  

The Enemy Method is designed to give you something to aim at, not to dumb it down for newbies.  Please investigate what we are advocating before you contradict it.  You are still missing the entire point.

But pessimists are never disappointed....unless it turns out NOT to be as bad as they thought...  ;  )

 sorry for helping someone new set realistic expectations. You can aim high, while having a realistic estimate that you can rely on. I understand the Enemy Method, ive mentioned it many time for people to use when they ask about how to estimate the value and numbers of a property. But as a new investor/host, they also need to make sure not to rely on the numbers of a property that is established, with many reviews and likely many repeat customers. They will have to build to it. I invested this year and while the numbers showed that if i knocked it out of the park, i could see $80-90k in rental a year. If i relied on those numbers right out of the gate and used those estimates in running my numbers, i might have gotten in way over my head. But it sounds like you are telling people, see what the property near you with 100+ reviews is doing and expect to see that in your first year.

sorry this triggered a nerve for you, but for many people risking their life savings into this type of investment, you can aim high with a goal, but also set realistic expectations to start with so you dont get into trouble and lose it all. forum boards like this are usually so that you can hear different opinions, research some and decide on what works for you. I'll know in the future to avoid quoting you. 

That's not what I said at all.  Sounds like you misinterpreted a lot, but your profile DOES say "new to real estate", so I'll let your mansplaining slide.  ;  )

[Michael Porche]

Quote from @Kevin Reinhardt:

Hey everyone.

Looking for advice on how to evaluate some potential str properties. I have some long term rentals and want to diversify.

I'm looking in a popular beach area in manitoba. There are a lot of air bnb properties already there so I can look at those to try and figure out a nightly/weekly rate. Sites like airdna don't have data on this area yet.

I'm wondering what everyone is doing to estimate or figure out their projected Occupancy rate? This way I can take that and my projected nightly rate to do a cost analysis on the property. Also if anyone has come across random or unique cabin expenses that one wouldn't usually think of feel free to drop a note in here too.

Any and all insight would be welcomed.

Thanks in advance.

Kevin

Hey Kevin! I am curious on the fact that you mentioned there is a lot of airbnb properties but airdna is not there yet? Well I would look at each one that share similar amenities to yours and see how often they are booked out in their calendar and then look at some nightly rates. If they are on airbnb at all I'm sure airdna has some data on some individual ones. I'm assuming this is in Canada?

[Trent Reeve]

Quote from @January Johnson:

Quote from @Trent Reeve:

Quote from @January Johnson:

Quote from @Trent Reeve:

Quote from @January Johnson:

Quote from @Trent Reeve:

Quote from @January Johnson:

When using Luke's Enemy Method, be sure and pay attention to which types of properties he recommends as "comps".  Look for those with >100 reviews, not the newbies - just wanted to underscore that part.  Good luck!

 I would say though to also look at the newbies. You arent going to hit the ground running with zero reviews and zero repeat customers and be able to do as well as an established property with 100 reviews. Dont set yourself up for disappointment the first year if you cant hit what the 100 review property does.

That's not the point of the Enemy Method.  Your "enemies" are the ones doing it right - the ones with great reviews and an experienced ADR.  The newbies have no track record.  Don't follow them.

Skate to where the puck is GOING, not where it's BEEN.  ;  )

 i understand that. but no one can realistically expect to generate the same revenue as a property with 100+ reviews their 1st year. so should not rely on that estimate to start.

Do you also tell your kids not to aim high because they can't realistically ever do that well?  

The Enemy Method is designed to give you something to aim at, not to dumb it down for newbies.  Please investigate what we are advocating before you contradict it.  You are still missing the entire point.

But pessimists are never disappointed....unless it turns out NOT to be as bad as they thought...  ;  )

 sorry for helping someone new set realistic expectations. You can aim high, while having a realistic estimate that you can rely on. I understand the Enemy Method, ive mentioned it many time for people to use when they ask about how to estimate the value and numbers of a property. But as a new investor/host, they also need to make sure not to rely on the numbers of a property that is established, with many reviews and likely many repeat customers. They will have to build to it. I invested this year and while the numbers showed that if i knocked it out of the park, i could see $80-90k in rental a year. If i relied on those numbers right out of the gate and used those estimates in running my numbers, i might have gotten in way over my head. But it sounds like you are telling people, see what the property near you with 100+ reviews is doing and expect to see that in your first year.

sorry this triggered a nerve for you, but for many people risking their life savings into this type of investment, you can aim high with a goal, but also set realistic expectations to start with so you dont get into trouble and lose it all. forum boards like this are usually so that you can hear different opinions, research some and decide on what works for you. I'll know in the future to avoid quoting you. 

That's not what I said at all.  Sounds like you misinterpreted a lot, but your profile DOES say "new to real estate", so I'll let your mansplaining slide.  ;  )

 maybe next time attack the post and not the poster

[Kevin Reinhardt]

@Luke Carl thanks luke

[Kevin Reinhardt]

@Trent Reeve

@January Johnson

Thanks for hijacking the post with your back and forth banter.

[Trent Reeve]

Quote from @Kevin Reinhardt:

@Trent Reeve

@January Johnson

Thanks for hijacking the post with your back and forth banter.

[January Johnson]

LOL.  Glad I could provide entertainment.  ;  )