The Cycle of Market Emotions in Smokies Short Term Rentals: Where we are

[Collin Hays]

[Collin Hays]

A few points:

- This is where I see things in the Smokies. I'm not familiar with other markets.

- I believe we are in the fear stage, heading to desperation.

- Desperation will set in in the fall, panic could be as early as December.

- Panic should last through mid 2026, with capitulation beginning August 2026, heading toward despondency in 2027.  That isn't here until there are several hundred short sales on the market.  

We MAY avoid desperation and capitulation if the "Greater Fool" theory steps in:  Mr. Smith his house today to Mr. Jones at a 20 percent loss.  Mr. Jones thinks he bought it cheap.  Mr Jones sells it to Mrs. Johnson in two years at another 20 percent loss.  She thinks she bought it cheap. Hopefully she did.