Real Estate Market Forecast: Austin to Appreciate 30% to 40%

35 Replies

The real estate market in Austin is hot to say the least and the forecast seems to be even hotter

I hope it's not gonna happen because we want to move to Austin and buy a house here in a couple of years! :) 

anyway, the market right now seems so crazy and unpredictable because of Covid and lack of inventory.

@Neil Narayan can you MP the youtube link?

cheers

@Neil Narayan thanks for the video. I actually tend to agree here. I know people are worried about a repeat of the housing bubble but the issues are different today. Regardless, the things described in this video is on point in regards to schools, jobs, restaurants. Austin home values are still laggin even after growth.

@Neil Narayan PM me the link if you don't mind.  As for the 30-40%, it sounds like that was in the next 3 years or so.  8-10% appreciation is not that far fetched and we have definitely seen it in the past.  As for the worry of the housing bubble, hopefully y'all know by now that Austin prices fell only 1.9% during the housing crisis and were back beyond its peaks 15 months later.  So the time to buy in Austin if you plan on moving here or investing here now or 5 years from now is now.  You just will pay more later on.  40 years of data to back that up.

@Justin Thorpe understood but its not a vague statement. 2007 had people buying homes who didnt qualify and fraudulent approvals. Lending qualification is much tighter now and people arent exactly going to be walking away from homes they put money down on.

@Ola Dantis

While I get the west coast joke, Id say without mincing a word that it is every realtors wet dream (in Austin and in most tier 2 cities in the country) that their local market behaves like how west coast markets have behaved in the last 10 years.

If that was even a remote possibility I can see realtors and investors tripping over each other to get a piece of that action because we are talking massive money.

For what its worth that wannabe west coast is unfortunately the narrative driving the investment thesis on Austin.

Ask people why is Austin hot? The response is Covid, remote working and how 2 companies from the Bay Area moved their HQ to Austin. That is both unfortunate and deeply pathetic when ideally it should like well Austin is hot because this year alone 20 Austin based companies went IPO or the formation of 40 new unicorns etc.

The Austin tech scene has for years been a one step forward and one step back model. Yes there is tech scene but not quite exploded.

I hope this decade we see a true reckoning of local startups flourishing vs a bunch of people dancing in the streets because 2 Bay Area companies moved HQs.