SFH rental - worth investing?

[Rascal Roubos]

I found a 4br home in Grass Valley, CA where seller is willing to do financing w 100k down. Asking price $450k. Pest report shows termites and porch needs replacing or taking out, still assessing real costs of this.  2 car garage can be turned into a separate unit later. Commercial/Residential zoning. 

There are a shortage of LTRs for families so demand is guaranteed, monthly rent ~2.6-2.9k. Number of airbnbs increased and daily occupancy rates decreased in last few years so feels more risky to try Airbnb route.

My numbers show monthly expenses at $1650-2050/mo if I can get a 4% seller finance rate and price of 350-400k. Plus property management costs and repairs. That’s best case scenario $1k cash flow per month and more likely $400.

This would be my first true investment property and would require all the investment capital I’ve acquired to date- I’m feeling nervous about it given predictions for tepid home value appreciation in coming years. Is it worth the opportunity cost of putting that $100k+ in the market for a few years? 

Spinning my wheels,

Rascal

Ps I live in Oakland CA and planning to move to grass valley in a few years, where I could then do local management.