Is this a good first deal?

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All -

I am looking to do my first deal and need some help. The place I am looking at is in Scottsdale, AZ. The purchase price is $217,000 and I have to pay ALL closing costs as the seller has said this is rock bottom price. The place is 1245 sq. ft. and is 3bd/2bath.

MLS comps in the area show many similar places are listed (active) between $269K and $315K. Many of the closed properties up to 10/06 show price near $216 per sq. ft.

Using the RECritic tool (6.25% IO 5/1 ARM loan), I anticipate turning about a $180/month cashflow if I put 20% down. I can have -$80/month cashflow if I put 0 down. The lease would be between $1395/month and $1450/month.

The property does not need any work to lease it out but it has not been upgraded. Many of the more expensive properties are upgraded pretty nice. This one is not that upgraded.

Many forecasts say the Phoenix market is going to lose some value in this year, but I am hoping that Scottsdale is somewhat immune to this drop since it is landlocked on all sides.

I plan on keeping this property for at least 5 years, maybe more if refinancing makes sense down the road.

I want to write into the contract that the property must appraise to $271,250. Can I do this, and exit if the property does not appraise?

Is this a good deal?

Thanks
V-man