Thoughts on Atlanta, GA's "growing" suburbs

[Austin Wolff]

Hey guys, I recently conducted a data analysis study on the fastest growing towns with a median home price below $200k (so I could afford 25% down). 3 of the nation's top 10 were all just outside Atlanta, GA:

1. McDonough, GA

2. Fairburn, GA

3. Villa Rica, GA

Are any local investors or realtors familiar with the area? The data analysis was conducted with the recently released 2021 US Census data (which will unfortunately always be 1-2 years behind), so I'm just wondering how well this data compares to your local opinion?

[LaMancha Sims]

All are great areas with tons of profit margins and growing over the next few years. 

[Michael Dumler]

@Austin Wolff, I don't have any hard stats or data for you, but honestly, I'm not surprised. Any submarket 25-35 mins outside of ATL saw ridiculous appreciation these past few years. With new ongoing development and high rental demand in the City, rent affordability is becoming an issue for many families and young professionals. On account of the rapid increase in rent rates, this is therefore forcing some renters to move into markets further outside the perimeter such as McDonough, Fairburn, and Villa Rica. All three areas are great rental markets due to their proximity to major interstates. McDonough is close to I-75, Fairburn is close to I-85, and Villa Rica is close to I-20. I have clients who own rentals in each respective market. Depending on how market conditions play out over the next few years, these areas will continue to steadily appreciate. If you have any real estate-related or ATL market-specific questions, feel free to contact me via cell or email (contact info is listed in my bio). 

[Venson Nunnaley]

@Austin Wolff,

We've been doing a lot of deals in these areas and are observing similar trajectories as the census data. The price points in these three areas are attracting many investors and consumers are flocking as well because of the relative affordability. There are many new developments going in Fairburn and this has proven to be a great rental and fix & flip market.  Outside of being convenient to the city of Atlanta, this area has a lot of job opportunities as there 12 companies that provide 100+ local positions the directly impact this sub-market.  As for McDonough, the state of GA recognizes the population distribution and they are planning to expand I75 into an expressway to open up flow of traffic to and from the city during high traffic times.  Villa Rica has an extensive development plan with Fuqua, the company the worked on the Battery Park project in Atlanta.  As you know, these large developments bring much economic upturn in most markets and investors are capitalizing where they can.

Let me know if you want to connect more on this topic.  I don't know everything, but I have the resources to get any information you need.

[Koshu Takatsuji]

Just adding on to what Michael Dumbler said - 

More recently (this past Jan), I have been having a harder time finding a renter and the price of nearby houses does seem to be on a slow but steady constant decline (at least North East Atlanta metro). 

So despite how Atlant has been seeing a lot of appreciation the past few years and rent increasing significantly last year, I am interested to see how both the near-city rental market plays out and how that will affect outer suburbs as well. 

[Ben Firstenberg]

Atlanta is huge and sprawling. We have 4 major office districts (Downtown, Midtown, Buckhead and Perimeter) as well as lots of other commercial centers. Because it's so spread out, it makes the suburbs very attractive places to live. You can get away from the noise and hassle of downtown while still being close to jobs and retail. 

It also makes the suburbs great places to invest, as the inventory helps keep prices from getting too high, but they're attractive places to live so the rents support the prices. 

[Chad Carrodus]

Quote from @Austin Wolff:

Hey guys, I recently conducted a data analysis study on the fastest growing towns with a median home price below $200k (so I could afford 25% down). 3 of the nation's top 10 were all just outside Atlanta, GA:

1. McDonough, GA

2. Fairburn, GA

3. Villa Rica, GA

Are any local investors or realtors familiar with the area? The data analysis was conducted with the recently released 2021 US Census data (which will unfortunately always be 1-2 years behind), so I'm just wondering how well this data compares to your local opinion?

As someone who has grown up in, worked, and watched Atlanta's real estate market expand my entire life, I would grade these areas as GOOD but not GREAT.

It really depends on your strategy, but following I-75 N to TN is a safe bet. Acworth, Cherokee County, Canton, Jasper, etc. 

Tell me a bit more about your strategy. 

[Austin Wolff]

Quote from @Chad Carrodus:

Quote from @Austin Wolff:

Hey guys, I recently conducted a data analysis study on the fastest growing towns with a median home price below $200k (so I could afford 25% down). 3 of the nation's top 10 were all just outside Atlanta, GA:

1. McDonough, GA

2. Fairburn, GA

3. Villa Rica, GA

Are any local investors or realtors familiar with the area? The data analysis was conducted with the recently released 2021 US Census data (which will unfortunately always be 1-2 years behind), so I'm just wondering how well this data compares to your local opinion?

As someone who has grown up in, worked, and watched Atlanta's real estate market expand my entire life, I would grade these areas as GOOD but not GREAT.

It really depends on your strategy, but following I-75 N to TN is a safe bet. Acworth, Cherokee County, Canton, Jasper, etc. 

Tell me a bit more about your strategy. 

 Very good to know, thank you. A brief summary of my ranking algorithm is this:

1. I look at metrics like Population Growth and Rent Growth (NOTE: I only graphed cities/towns with a population of 10,000 or more, which is why you won't see smaller neighborhoods here. ALSO: Click on the images to enlarge them on a new tab):

So far, the data does seem favorable to the I-75N corridor.

2. Then I look at Median Price to see if a town/suburb is within my price range. Unfortunately, with a down payment of only $50,000, my max purchase price is $250,000. Acworth and Kennesaw look good!

3. Then I look at Rent-to-Price ratio:

It looks like Acworth is good, Kennesaw is even better.

4. Then I look at Percent Renter-Occupied to see what the rental market looks like:

It looks like Kennesaw has a smaller percentage of renters than Acworth, which still looks good. This preliminary data may still suggest McDonough fits my personal investing needs more. However, I've never even visited Atlanta, and I know there are gaps in this data. It's not perfect. 

I will definitely take your word for it on the I-75N corridor. The data certainly looks promising already, especially for Acworth. Thank you for the feedback and suggestion, I definitely need to double-check my algorithm and take a look at Acworth!

[Yinka Taiwo]

@Austin Wolff love the visuals. Which tool did you use here?

Acworth is an area with good schools and McDonough is on the busy i75 corridor

[Austin Wolff]

Quote from @Yinka Taiwo:

@Austin Wolff love the visuals. Which tool did you use here?

Acworth is an area with good schools and McDonough is on the busy i75 corridor

 Thanks Yinka. I'm a Real Estate Data Scientist, so I used Python/Pandas/GeoPandas. Although any non-coder could create these visuals for free with QGIS and the US Census datasets. And awesome, good to know, thank you!

[John Powell]

If you like Acworth look up the Logan. A 1,000,000sqft multi use development directly on the I-75 corridor. In the very northern edge of Cobb County. With your criteria if you are looking appreciation I would look just accross I-75 at Bartow county. This area has been blighted for years but has a technical school and will have a prime development less than 1 mile away And is easily commutable to Atlanta. Feel free to reach out for more info. 

[Kevin Peace]

Whats everyones thoughts on Cartersville? What about Rome, GA? I live in Acworth and am thinking about starting my portfolio in these areas. 

[Grant Garab]

Quote from @Kevin Peace:

Whats everyones thoughts on Cartersville? What about Rome, GA? I live in Acworth and am thinking about starting my portfolio in these areas. 

Both great areas. Have a few for sale in those areas and a duplex in Acworth. Be glad to chat, reach out. 

[Jay Sausmer]

Quote from @Austin Wolff:

Quote from @Yinka Taiwo:

@Austin Wolff love the visuals. Which tool did you use here?

Acworth is an area with good schools and McDonough is on the busy i75 corridor

 Thanks Yinka. I'm a Real Estate Data Scientist, so I used Python/Pandas/GeoPandas. Although any non-coder could create these visuals for free with QGIS and the US Census datasets. And awesome, good to know, thank you!

Yes, this looks like absolutely nothing I've got. Nice job! 

[Layla Garrett]

Quote from @Kevin Peace:

Whats everyones thoughts on Cartersville? What about Rome, GA? I live in Acworth and am thinking about starting my portfolio in these areas. 

Rome and Cartersville both are experiencing a lot of growth! I work with many of the investors/landlords here in Rome, and we have sold several properties to out of town investors, especially from Atlanta. There's several good property management companies here as well, which helps make it easier if you live out of town and want to have rental properties in Rome. 

[Rick Baggenstoss]

Great analysis!  I think it's important to note past performance does not mean ... 

If you're not already, get access to Atlanta Business Chonicle and map major investments in the area which will drive employment, etc.  I think Kennesaw and Acworth are great, but you're missing out if you don't look East, West and South of Atlanta for the reasons you mentioned.

[Chad Carrodus]

That is super cool! I love the visuals. They help so much.

[Chad Carrodus]

Quote from @Layla Garrett:

Quote from @Kevin Peace:

Whats everyones thoughts on Cartersville? What about Rome, GA? I live in Acworth and am thinking about starting my portfolio in these areas. 

Rome and Cartersville both are experiencing a lot of growth! I work with many of the investors/landlords here in Rome, and we have sold several properties to out of town investors, especially from Atlanta. There's several good property management companies here as well, which helps make it easier if you live out of town and want to have rental properties in Rome. 

While I have affection for Rome (and my property there), investors should exercise caution and precision regarding their plan, objectives, and financial means (budget). 

For example, strategies best suited in Rome in my opinion are:

- Land / Farm

- New construction (build to rent, tiny home STR's, or even development)

- Self storage

- Manufacturing / industrial CRE

[Dan N.]

Quote from @Austin Wolff:

Quote from @Yinka Taiwo:

@Austin Wolff love the visuals. Which tool did you use here?

Acworth is an area with good schools and McDonough is on the busy i75 corridor

 Thanks Yinka. I'm a Real Estate Data Scientist, so I used Python/Pandas/GeoPandas. Although any non-coder could create these visuals for free with QGIS and the US Census datasets. And awesome, good to know, thank you!

 HI Austin,

Hope I´m not late to the game. These visuals are awesome! I was wondering exactly which datasets in the US Census page were you extracting them from.
I found this page, but there is no mention of Rent growth and all the data is from 2021

https://www.census.gov/topics/...

What am I missing?

[Austin Wolff]

Quote from @Dan N.:

Quote from @Austin Wolff:

Quote from @Yinka Taiwo:

@Austin Wolff love the visuals. Which tool did you use here?

Acworth is an area with good schools and McDonough is on the busy i75 corridor

 Thanks Yinka. I'm a Real Estate Data Scientist, so I used Python/Pandas/GeoPandas. Although any non-coder could create these visuals for free with QGIS and the US Census datasets. And awesome, good to know, thank you!

 HI Austin,

Hope I´m not late to the game. These visuals are awesome! I was wondering exactly which datasets in the US Census page were you extracting them from.
I found this page, but there is no mention of Rent growth and all the data is from 2021

https://www.census.gov/topics/...

What am I missing?

 Hey Doron! I downloaded the information from their ACS 5-Year survey. You can read all about it here: https://www.census.gov/program... There's quite a lot though, so you'll need to spend some time digging for what you want.

[Dan N.]

@Austin Wolff will do. Thank you!