New builds are 2 YEARS out, and other red flags

5 Replies

South central Idaho housing shortage is beyond painful.  I am pondering the impact that local builders have because they are contracting for builds 2 years out.  Since the contracts are between builder and buyer I wonder how interest rates, lending, closing, and build costs are being dealt with, I find it highly unlikely that local builders will shoulder cost adds.  

I understand the dog fight to get a home, as I look at the MLS I see ONLY 23 active listings for SFR in the most desirable community. Rumor has it that "the building supply" store will begin picking and choosing whom they will serve, since the demand is far beyond their capacity. This also impacts the remodel market, quality contractors are booked 2 years out on new construction and it's doubtful that smaller guys can find qualified workers or the construction materials to move forward.

How are you dealing with this in your area?

There must be solutions or opportunities, right?   

builders will have terms in their contracts that final price is subject to the current pricing of materials and labor and non binding on either party.. at least that's how I write mine.

time to come to your market and import labor and get your license to build 

Like to see some of those out of work these days jump back into the trades. I know it hard work and physical labor but its ironic you have all this unemployment and you have the building trades that simply cannot get enough labor to keep up with demand.. 

Are you talking Boise metro market Meridian those areas ? or farther east into Idaho falls Pocatello etc ?

Right and left of hwy 93, it's on fire.

Super easy to become a contractor in Idaho, probably too easy.  That said, I would love to see competition come in, specifically material suppliers, we have drivers ready to haul and facilities ready to house.   

Another idea is to see contractors collect people who have been priced out of their homes (say from Reno) who have the will and ability to work but don't even have a vehicle anymore, let alone a residence.  A  big enough builder could do man camps, provide RV housing, and help people get back on their feet.

There are so many investment opportunities here for medium to large investors and companies.

It is surely interesting to think about. Based on the most recent census bureau data, we (Americans) are moving at the lowest rates ever recorded. It is a concerning trend that people are much less likely to chase work across states than they used to be. There is a shortage of skilled tradespeople across the board, and the boom in Idaho will likely leave us hurting more than the rest for a while to come. I'd like to think that some enterprising builders would figure a way to attract people here, but with building supply uncertainties I wouldn't think anyone would be willing to take too much of a risk. Just thinking out loud - this is not my area of expertise.

As far as the moving rates, the problem circles back to the housing shortage.  So many people want to sell and move up or down or out but cant because of the nutty competition for homes.  What's good for a seller, immediately becomes torment and suffering for them as a buyer.  

Being a contractor might be great for the guy first in line with the supplier, but you're going to suffer if you are the little guy trying to get your material in a "hand picked" supply chain.