All Forum Posts by: Dave Kennedy

I got laid off in December and have been collecting since then and to be honest I am ashamed of it. I want nothing more then to make an honest living. I'm embarrassed when asked about what I do...which is job searching at the moment.

I worked in commericial RE as an acquisitions analyst and when acquisitions dried up they made cuts. My company has gone from 20 employees last fall to 6 currently.

I've been picky with the jobs I am applying to and interviewing for but that is because I don't want to just accept a job to accept one. I want to make the right long term move. The problem is the RE industry isn't really hiring and that is really where my passion is.

When I got let go I thought it would be a 2 or 3 month break. Its been close to 5 and it sucks.

I personally hate the fact that I am collecting but I not abusing the system. Luckily I am young 25 and don't have any debt. I moved back home until I get my feet back under me.

I just feel like a bum...lol. I can't believe people do this and are happy with themselves.

I was just watching CNBC and they talked about a highly anticipated launch from MacroShares.

There is an up fund and a down fund and you are essentially betting for or against the housing market. The fund doesn't invest in RE, it appreciates depending on the actual price of homes reported by Case Shiller.

UMM - Will return 3 times the bench market return, you are betting on it going up. So if home prices on the index rise by 20% on the year...your ETF will return 60% for the year.

DMM - Will return 3 times the bench market return, you are betting on it going down. Its the flip side of UMM.

The benchmark they will be using to determine fund performance is the S&P Composite 10, provided by Case Shiller. This tracks the top 10 markets in the US and follows home prices.

They aren't sure when the launch date is just yet but they anticipate it will be released in a few months.

Seems a little shady for an ETF. Potential conflict of interest there with Case Shiller...imo. Seems like you could ride out DMM for another 12-18 months and then reevaluate and hop into UMM for a long term investment. It's definitely something I'll keep on the radar.

My Agriculture and Oil ETF's killed it for a year and I got out this summer (on gut and by luck) and I am glad I did. I think I sold my Oil ETF when Oil was around 130/barrel. It was litterally all down hill from there for DBO.

I think the bulk of the reports I have read all target very late 2010 and early 2011 in the hard hit markets like FL, AZ and CA. It might have something to do with their 200%+ appreciation in a couple years...lol.

I don't think you'll see a precipitous drop for the next 2 years like you have seen the last 2 years but another 15-20% from here followed by a period of flat prices until sales start absorbing more inventory. There are still a lot of forclosures on the horizon in those areas and until that bleeding stops the price decline won't stop.

Just my 2 cents.

Eric,

I had a friend as if they would lower there price by 3% and the agent wouldn't do that. I am assuming because that means the listing agents % shrinks. It might not effect the seller because either way they are paying that out. But it will effect the listing agent.

Lets say listing agent gets the offer for 500k, if it went through they'd make 15k. But if they reduced the price by 3% to 485k they would only receive 14.5k commission. Its only a $500 hit....but they still complained.

If I needed 200k to get a company up an running. Do small banks lend money to purchasing inventory, equipment, signage, marketing, rent, utlities...etc upon starting up? Is the loan based on cash flow of a business model or does it have to do with your current level of income/assets you own?

My friend and I want to start a business (not entirely sure what yet). I got laid off right before the holidays and haven't had any luck finding a job in commercial RE(where I was before) and he is just getting out of school. So neither of us have any income to secure the loan...would a bank even attempt to loan to us? I've got a decent about in the bank and some stocks/mutual funds and IRA. He sadly has no of that and only brings hard work, a brain and the will to go through a start up with me to the table.

My guess is that the weight both the expected cash flow of the business model and liquid assets you currently have (cash, stocks..etc). Do we stand a chance in hell in getting 100k+ business loan without any current income?

What about owning a 2 or 3 family and living in one of the units if you can get the renters to pay for all or a large % of the mortgage?

Interesting...I don't have this current problem right now. I have 3 cards and have never missed a payment, always paid in full.

I was just entertaining a way to get some start up capital without paying interest. But it sounds like it will hurt my credit score if I float a balance like that. So i'd rather just pay with cash for the items.

If you took out a small biz credit card with 0% interest for 12 month in order to buy things for a start up and floated the balance until you start making income to pay it off does it hurt your credit rating?

EX...lets say I buy $5,000 worth...but I don't pay it back until month 9. Will that hurt my credit? What if I paid the monthly minimum, does that help?

90k at 8% for 5 yrs is 1,824/mnth.

1,824/mnth for 30 yrs at 6% would allow you to get a 304k loan.

Go buy a multi unit that cashflows in TX for that.

Then buy a used honda/toyota for 6-10k cash.

When I got my first job out of college...3 yrs ago I went out and purchased a new Honda Pilot (SUV) for 25k, put a bit down and then financed the rest of 66 months. My payments are $433 and I regret buying it. Had I been smart I would have got one with 40-50k miles on it that was 2 yrs old for 18k.

I love the car but hate the payments. I am actually just thinking about paying it all off soon and taking the hit too savings. Because over the long run of the loan I am actually paying closer to 36k when you add in my down payment and the interest of the loan.

Keep in mind this is a Honda Pilot...hardly a lavish car but still probably more then I needed just out of college.

I would have not had that debt on my books so I could be approved for more money for RE. Because right now my car is costing potentially 76k of "lending power" on a 30 yr loan.

I think the reason for wanting to go purchase something just out of college is that reward/success factor. You are now looking at a salaried job as opposed to working for $10/hr. I remember when I signed my contract for my first job at Fidelity I thought ...wow 37k....thats so much money!! lol....it is to a college kid. But it doesn't go as far as you think. I'm not sure what kind of salary you are targeting but i'd guess it falls short to justify buying a Lambo.

Joe you are right that owning a home does win over renting in the long run, typically. If you have a break even scenario you lived for free. Which would be opposed to renting lets say $1,200/mnth * 12 = $14,400/yr * 30 yrs = $432,000 of money you will never see again.

But when I started this thread I was contemplating the notion that the home is a "good investment". Like when people say I bought this house for 200k in 1980 and now its worth 500k.....Well that sounds like they've made 300k profit. But if you look at the life of the loan and how much you paid you actually are just breaking even in most cases.