Originally posted by @Kerry Baird:
@Chris Mason, can you explain this? “Mortgaged real estate is a hedge against inflation. Free/clear real estate is not.”
Person A buys a $100k house, pays all cash (into it for $100k).
Person B buys $100k in balanced index funds (into it for $100k).
Person C buys a $100k house, putting 25% down (into it for just $25k).
Person D keeps $100k in a checking account (into it for $100k).
OMG INFLATION!!! WE JUST HAD 20% INFLATION OVER X YEARS!! (If I could predict X, I'd have a crystal ball)
Let's grant that this inflation is perfectly distributed across all asset classes but checking accounts and greenbacks. We're just going to use nice round simple numbers. Gallon of milk is up 20%, gas is up 20%, wages are in theory (lol) up 20%, gold/silver up 20%, bitcoin went up 1000% then dropped 980% 2 milliseconds later (good luck at that casino, and props if you win, someone has to), so it's up 20%, rent is up 20%, stocks on average are up 20%, you get the idea. The dollar is basically down 20%, that's what inflation is, the same $1 gets you 20% less of everything. Same coin, two sides.
Person A has a $120k house. Net worth value, $120k. Into it for $100k. Not bad, picked up $20k on $100k.
Person B has $120k in stocks. Net worth value, $120k. Into it for $100k. Not bad, picked up $20k on $100k.
Person C has a $120k house that they owe $75k on. Net worth value = $120k - $75k = 45k. Into it for $25k. Picked up $20k on $25k. Hold the phone.
Person D has $100k in a checking account. Into it for $100k, still has $100k, but groceries are 20% more expensive... whoops. Clearly this is last place.
Person A turned $100k into $120k in net worth. Person B turned $100k into $120k in net worth. Tied.
Consider that C turned $25k into +$20k in net worth. Everyone else had to come in with $100k to make $20k. They came in with $25k to make $20k... Persons A and B started richer, and remain richer, but person C is actually gaining ground, A and B are just treading water with inflation.
Consider further that maybe Person C isn't poorer than the other 3. Maybe Person C has the same $100k like everyone else. Great, that means Person C could have picked up 4 houses for $100k a pop (25% down each) before the inflation, each now worth $120k... into it for $100k like everyone else, net worth value $180k.
Buying stocks has significantly lower closing costs than houses, so Person B would actually beat Person A, but C would still come out ahead. Closing costs are why I'm not convinced that buying real estate free/clear is really that great of a hedge against inflation. If we assume that equal application of inflation, and we're JUST looking at inflation, stocks come out ahead (There are real life reasons why real estate might [& often does] come out ahead of stocks, we're JUST looking at inflation here, with a very simplified model).