All Forum Posts by: Cliff H.

Hi Zach, I'm not sure anyone has anything more than their own theories on differences we're seeing across the regions and experiences. The downturn's quite clear where I'm at and having heard first hand accounts from the Smokies, Myrtle Beach, and other destinations my suspicion is that there's just specific areas that are simply oversaturated with new listings and that's driving prices and rankings down to levels hosts and tools are not yet equipped to support.  

As an example, I can see in my regions that most of the listings on page one are either low-cost superhost or new listings: two segments that AirBnB has a vested interest in promoting on their platform. 

Personally, I've also done myself no favors by testing different smart pricing tools, which have been wildly optimistic on average pricing, leading to a reduction in the usual seasonal bookings. It's a tough market here in the Northeast when you're fluctuating between high weekend base rates in winter months, moderate base rates in summer, super high rates in a variable peak foliage season, and really low base rates in shoulder months. I've used every one of the pricing tools and have not found one that's really capable of keeping pace with what's really happening across these variable seasons, at least not without significant tweaking of custom seasonal profiles. PriceLabs comes the closest, but there's still a ton of tweaking and I'm often resetting pricing at the start of each of our four seasons here in New England. 

Add all that noise into the broader pivot AirBnB made to focus on boutique and luxury rentals last year and there's a lot of longtime hosts that simply fell off the search ranks, lost Superhost/Premier status, and are now nearly invisible on AirBnB in particular. 

@Nathan W. disagree. You’re correct: anyone can go to the public library and get the equivalent of a university degree on their own time, but that’s not why people go to college. 

The best bootcamps are about community + connections, not knowledge transfer. Kudos to the the BP team for calling that out right up front: $225 for the interactive boot camps, $125 for the solo ones. 

@Craig Jones yes. In my market the pricing tolls don’t accurately account for the differences in weekend vs weekday pricing or the differences between a two week ultra high demand fall foliage season. For those I need to define pricing before the demand drives prices up.

I’d also argue that in an environment of last minute bookings like many are seeing this year, setting your seasonal profile yourself manually allows you not be blocked out by early bookings that are not accurately priced because market demand is not yet spiking so far in advance.

@Melissa Silk not surprised about the OOB bookings. I used to live out by the NH seacoast and always found it amusing to watch the miles upon miles of cars/SUVs loaded with every kind of watercraft known to mankind rolling slowly up the 95 corridor in a near logjam every weekend from June - August. Is the water in Maine really that much better people?! For those of you without local context, Interstate 95 between Boston and Maine is basically like this old George Carlin joke every summer weekend: 

"Everywhere you look there are families with too many vehicles. You see them on the highways with their RVs. But apparently the RVs aren’t enough, because behind them they are towing cars, motor boats, go-carts, dune buggies, dirt bikes, ski jets, snowmobiles, para sails, hang gliders. Hot air balloons and two small two-man deep sea diving bells. The only thing these people lack are lunar excursion modules. Doesn’t anyone take a f***ing walk anymore?”

- George Carlin

Thanks for the clarification @Michael Baum! I'm delayed in upgrading my current Schlage Connect locks to the the newer hardware so that's very helpful to know, as well as the ~6mo of battery life you're seeing in what sounds like a similar climate on the other side of the country. To clarify, are you leveraging the smart deadbolt-style locks or the lever style? I'd be inclined to stay with my lever locks given how many STRs I've stayed in out east where the motorized deadbolts don't quite align and end up jamming, but I'm open to others' experiences in this space. 

Acknowledging the countless time this question has been asked over the years, I'll just add a couple clarifying points I don't see in the near universal recommendation around Schlage Encode locks: 

1. WiFi locks like Encode use more electricity that older, legacy ZWave or Bluetooth that leverage a WiFi bridge or smart hub that act as the "heavy lifter" back to your WiFi/router. That's not a slam against Encode, just the reality of the higher energy usage that WiFi uses over ZWave/Bluetooth (both very low energy). My ZWave locks will run 6-9 months on cheap batteries in brutally cold New England temps. In short: WiFi locks = trading battery life for the simplicity of having one device to buy or setup versus many. 

2. New locks are starting to have some nice "jump start" capability built into their hardware that can be a great help against potential battery drain or lockouts. My favorite in this space is the very well constructed, albeit still early-phase, Igloo 2S Deadbolt that can set codes both online and offline, integrates with AirBnB/others, and includes a 9V battery "jump start" capability built in. Great hardware that I'm actually using on remote LTRs as well. For those of you with backup physical lockboxes on-site, they also have the original offline smart padlock they sell as well, which is an equally-impressive technology wonder.  

3. Anyone here using Yale Assure locks as well? I see they have a similar ecosystem integration as Schlage Encode, with direct integration into a similar number of popular PM systems out there. 

This is a great, locally-sourced, first-hand report Collin. While I'm not in-region, I am starting to really question the continued cheerleading of historic STR revenue/profits from the likes of AirDNA and others versus the reality that many of us in various regions of the country/world are seeing first hand.

Pros: can attract more guests.

Cons: can attract more guests (sometimes of the type you don't want).

This thread's for all my fellow New England investors looking for answers amidst this year's downturn. How things are going with your short term rental bookings? While everyone wants to bat a thousand every swing most all my area friends/colleagues running STRs across New England appear to be sharing similarly stories of significant downturns in bookings/demand this summer, particularly with AirBnB (which I've shared my own theories on elsewhere in the forums). 

Since data > stories. Here's a spotlight on south-central Vermont's occupancy courtesy of BeyondPricing.com's dashboard today, 7/23/23. For those not yet in-region or familiar, Vermont (and New England in general) is highly seasonal, with peak months being July-August and February-March. Based on Beyond's data, average July-August peak occupancies are down 20% within the current 2-4 week typical booking window and 40-60% farther out (not surprising given this year's trend on last minute bookings). 

So here's my call out to other New England area investors/managers: what are you seeing in your 2023 calendars? 

You don’t need a spreadsheet or YT channel to see the writing on the wall: too much inventory amidst the expected downturn in demand after record years.

If you’re not understanding where your bookings went try searching your area like a guest. You’ll see one of two things show up at the top of the search on AirBnB: new listings or ultra cheap/discounted listings.

AirBnB isn't losing revenue because they already pivoted to luxury and boutique a year ago to counteract the downturn in average listings they saw coming. Air (and larger hedge-fund STR companies with endless $$$ to burn) are insulated. Most mom and pop hosts are not. Diversification 101.