Hi Will. Thnx for your reply. Let me throw out some numbers. Tell me what you think:
Purchase Price=$175,000 (best neighborhoods in Raleigh area)
Rent=$1,350
Taxes=$110
Insurance=$60
HOA=$120
Vacancy/Repairs=$150
$910/month X 12 = $11,000 $11,000/$175,000=6.2%
So, on the properties I would pay cash for, my return would be around 6% (not including tax savings).
I would be happy getting a long-term return of 6%. But, my real bet is on Raleigh. I am betting that in 10 years from now the Raleigh area would have appreciated nicely. Nobody has a crystal ball. Nobody can know for sure if Raleigh will appreciate. If I am wrong, and Raleigh either remains stable or loses some value then I will still make some money. Obviously if I make 3%/year over 10 years then I will NOT be happy. But, it would be a better bet then those people that had owned stock in Bear Sterns.
On the other hand, what if Raleigh does appreciate the way I think it will? What if Raleigh becomes the Silicon Valley of the East coast? Well, then my bet, with very little downside, would turn into a nice investment.
That Risk/Reward scenario makes sense to me.
If I only buy in areas that meet your criteria of 1.5% of rents to purchase price, then I can't do it in Raleigh. Well, I can't do it in the good areas of Raleigh. Maybe, if I got super-lucky and had the perfect connections, maybe I could find 1 property in the good areas of Raleigh at an extreme discounted price. Why do I need to wait for the perfect property if I am making a bet on the long-term growth of an area?
Since I am a stock trader, let me explain it in terms of a stock. The stock CMG (Chiptole Mexican Grill) was trading at around $80 a few years back. At that time the PE (price to earnings ratio) was 45. For those who don't know how PE works, 45 is quite a high number. I know many investors who wouldn't even consider CMG at that price because the PE was so high.
Today CMG is trading at $384/share. The PE is even higher at 57. That is an incredible return on one's money in just a few years. The people that only looked at the high PE missed an incredible return.
If I were to follow your 1.5% rule, then I would have an extremely difficult time investing in a top quality area in Raleigh. The reason CMG had such a high PE, was precisely because it was considered a top quality company. The reason I can't find any properties in the best areas in Raleigh for 1.5% rent ratio is because Raleigh is viewed as a top quality location.
I may be 100% wrong about Raleigh. But that is why it is called an investment. There is uncertainty. But it would seem silly to NOT make a bet just because I can't find a property that meets the 1.5% rule. Even I am wrong about Raleigh, I will still come out ahead, or at least even, in the long run. If I am right, then it can be a very nice investment. I like those odds.