Vikram, You are right in many ways about the Mid-west being overpopulated out of neccesity as that is the way the country developed. I would argue though, that unlike Japan(although our economy is stagnate at the moment) our demographic is entirely different. Japan has an aging population with very little immigration. The US on the other hand will see around a 30% increase in population over the next few decades or so, and our economy will rebound. I will also assert that the contrarian aspect of such investments provide opportunity unto themself as well. As you and the majority of others on BP will stay away from the midwest I think it provides more of an opportunity as you all fight for profits in the sun belt states, I have investors like the majority of those on BP to thank for 15%+ CAP rates. I agree that sun belt states are growing, and will continue to do so, and I believe those areas to be good investments for the most part. But the thought that people conjure up in their minds that midwest cities will continue to bleed people to the point that tumbleweed blows through vacant ghost towns is incorrect (exggeration, I know, but makes my point). There is a reason the CAP's are higher in these areas, and it is for the reasons you described, but i think investment opportunity abounds as opposed to what the majority on BP believe.
Secondly I want to counter the point about wealth being created through appreciation. People makes this argument as though you will not achieve wealth through cash flow investing. I very much think you can achieve wealth by earning a 15% return on your investments (not to mention the use of leverage in RE). That cash flow allows you to take out bigger loans and acquire more property, which builds wealth in another manner - by acquisition. Appreciation is great, but as we know, appreciation in property values may have a MUCH slower pace and longer time horizon in the new economy of tommorow, no more bubble appreciation. So touting success stories of those who rode the bubble is no indication of the future. the realities of the "new" economy should in itself be an indication that cash flow investing should be even more desirable now, as appreciation will not be achievable in the way it was 5 years ago. Furthermore I see potential gentrification and redevlopment of inner cities and "main street" initiatives across the country as a sign of what the future demographic will desire in the future. As I mentioned, what is considered "inner city" oft includes the first ring of burb development from decades past that has turned to "ghetto" itself. Neighborhoods rise and fall in "class", and investing in areas that are gentrifying is a great idea IMO. If i can buy cheap inner city property that is gentrifying and cash flows at a nearly 20% return I will be happy to do so and take the potential rapid appreciation of inner city property as a potential plus if it happens. If it does, the appreciation rate will far exceed what is experiened in the burbs.
Again, I am not knocking sun belt burbs investment strategies, simply arguing the point of the minority of investors on here investing in the midwest and other such areas. In particular I like Cincinnati and Indianapolis.