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All Forum Posts by: Jay Hurst

Jay Hurst has started 7 posts and replied 1577 times.

Post: Could Redfin be correct predicting 7% interest rates in 2025?

Jay Hurst
Posted
  • Lender
  • Dallas, TX
  • Posts 1,626
  • Votes 1,105
Quote from @Gregory Schwartz:
Quote from @Jay Hurst:
Quote from @Gregory Schwartz:

I just read this article from Redfin (Housing Market Predictions for 2025) that predicts mortgage rates will stay at 6.85% in 2025.

That seems like one of the few predictions saying rates will stay that high. Are they way off, or could they actually be right?

In my local market (College Station, TX), high rates in 2024 already caused a big jump in inventory, which created some good buying opportunities. If rates stay high, do you think inventory will keep climbing, opening up even more deals for buyers who are ready to pounce?


     Most borrowers I speak to are just assuming that rates will drop off the table in a few months. I then ask them why they think that, and there is no real answer. For rates to drop considerably something has to change in the economy. Rates are NOT high right now historically speaking. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US   Sure, we have gotten used to historically anomalous low rates, but that does not mean we will get back there without the economy slowing down. Folks forget rates did not drop below 6% until 2009, which was due the nearly collapse of the world economy and of course the rock bottom 4 and under was a result of the world shutting down due to covid. 


     I agree, but in this case, historical trends don't matter. All that matters is that buyers feel like rates are high and are reluctant to buy. Also lots of sellers have locked in <4% rates and don't want to buy at 7%


     The above is all true, but that fact is not going to make the bond market push down mortgage rates. I think if the industry as a whole was a little more honest with it self and with market participants you might not have as many waiting for something that is not likely to happen in the short term. if you need a house, you need a house. but, if you think something will change in 6 months you might be able to hold on, but if it likely will not change in the near term you might just bite the bullet and buy. 

    Post: Could Redfin be correct predicting 7% interest rates in 2025?

    Jay Hurst
    Posted
    • Lender
    • Dallas, TX
    • Posts 1,626
    • Votes 1,105
    Quote from @Gregory Schwartz:

    I just read this article from Redfin (Housing Market Predictions for 2025) that predicts mortgage rates will stay at 6.85% in 2025.

    That seems like one of the few predictions saying rates will stay that high. Are they way off, or could they actually be right?

    In my local market (College Station, TX), high rates in 2024 already caused a big jump in inventory, which created some good buying opportunities. If rates stay high, do you think inventory will keep climbing, opening up even more deals for buyers who are ready to pounce?


       Most borrowers I speak to are just assuming that rates will drop off the table in a few months. I then ask them why they think that, and there is no real answer. For rates to drop considerably something has to change in the economy. Rates are NOT high right now historically speaking. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US   Sure, we have gotten used to historically anomalous low rates, but that does not mean we will get back there without the economy slowing down. Folks forget rates did not drop below 6% until 2009, which was due the nearly collapse of the world economy and of course the rock bottom 4 and under was a result of the world shutting down due to covid. 

      Post: What ever happened to...?

      Jay Hurst
      Posted
      • Lender
      • Dallas, TX
      • Posts 1,626
      • Votes 1,105
      Quote from @Armando Carrera:

      What ever happened to dropping interest rates? I thought we were supposed to have rates that were more favorable? We got a small drop last month but nothing worth bragging about.

      I was thinking of doing a refi with dropping rates but doesnt seem like thats in cards currently...

      Thank you


       The bond market happened. Despite popular option the fed nor a president has direct control over long term interest rates. Where rates are currently are normal rates over the last 100 years or so. Just the last 20 have been so abnormally low we have gotten used to that normal.

      Folks also forget what started us on the ultra low rate cycle for  the world economy to crash in 2008.  Cost of borrowing goes way down when no one wants to borrow like in a bad economy. Of course then covid pushed rates even lower, which of course because no one wanted to borrow money with that kind of uncertainty.   So, cycles happen and we will likely have another down rate cycle in the next few years but it might just be due to another economic issue, so sometimes be careful what you wish for. 

      Post: Trying to Break Even by Leveraging Equity

      Jay Hurst
      Posted
      • Lender
      • Dallas, TX
      • Posts 1,626
      • Votes 1,105
      Quote from @Parker Bullard:

      I'm looking to purchase my first investment property and need help figuring out a strategy that will work for me. I have about $300k in equity (based on a BPO performed in July 2023) but no cash. Whatever I do, I would need to do with a HELOC—effectively financing 100% of the property (down payment and closing financed with HELOC, rest of purchase financed with a mortgage).

      But I'm having trouble finding any properties that I could rent, BRRRR, or flip where I would even break even—let alone clear a profit or cash flow.

      My question is: When you hear that I'm essentially doing 100% financing, does that make it clear to anyone what strategy would be best? Does that make anyone think, "If you're not bringing any capital to the table then you probably want to avoid this strategy or you probably want to go with this kind of investment"?


      Understand cash flow lower then say 500 bucks a month is a myth anyway. Your AC goes out, boom your year of cash flow evaporates. The tenant does what tenant's do, and your make ready for the next tenant wipes out your yearly cash flow.  Point being if you are leveraged to the hilt with no cash how are you going to make those required repairs etc?  

      Post: Go big or go home! 🤔

      Jay Hurst
      Posted
      • Lender
      • Dallas, TX
      • Posts 1,626
      • Votes 1,105
      Quote from @Joe S.:

      Today my thought was it is possible to grow too fast.  

      It is possible to buy too many too fast and put yourself in a financial hardship.

      Have you ever heard of a startup store that done real good and added another store that done good? The excitement then went through the roof and the owner wanted to do three or four at the same time and the next thing you know the whole ship went down in bankrupt.

      Just something to think about.


       One of the biggest red flags I have as a lender (who lends my own money as well as secondary market loan) is when a rookie tells me there goal is to buy 10, 20, whatever properties in the next year. my next question is how many do you own currently? that answer is almost always zero.  You have to crawl before you walk. Lets get the first 1 or 2 done before we plan for 25.  Dollars to donuts most those guys never end up buying even that first one.

      Post: Lender to offer low financing for new construction builds?

      Jay Hurst
      Posted
      • Lender
      • Dallas, TX
      • Posts 1,626
      • Votes 1,105
      Quote from @Connor Williams:

      Thanks for the confirmation everyone. Definitely what I was thinking and sounds like it can be done. 5.25-% rate on a 1.2$ house is definitely more appealing and opens doors up as opposed to 6.7+ rates. 


       Sure, it can be done. But, understand the cost involved. Assuming your buyer has good credit, putting 20% down etc buying down to 5.25% today would cost 4-4.5 points, so 800k loan that would be 32k-40k from someone, and if you are offering that buy down that someone would be you. 

      Post: Lender to offer low financing for new construction builds?

      Jay Hurst
      Posted
      • Lender
      • Dallas, TX
      • Posts 1,626
      • Votes 1,105
      Quote from @Connor Williams:

      I saw another builder local to me offering 4.99% financing. 
      my question is how or who can offer financing like this on houses I build ? I am guessing there is either a preferred or in house lender with large amounts of credit to get to this? 

      I want to learn more. 4.99% for buyers is a game changer selling 6 new construction houses 


       You just buy down the rate for the buyer. The cost to do this just comes out of the total profit margin. 

      Post: Unexpected Rate Increase on BRRRR Loan – Is This Normal?

      Jay Hurst
      Posted
      • Lender
      • Dallas, TX
      • Posts 1,626
      • Votes 1,105
      Quote from @Ryan Dunn:

      Hi,

      I have two BRRRR loans with Fixated Funding, both starting and closing on the same day. One loan was locked at 6.9%, the other at 7.1%. However, I just received the closing docs, and the rate on the 6.9% loan has been increased to 7.8%. I wasn't notified about this change until I saw it myself.

      When I asked why, they said the home inspection found some issues that were fixed and re-inspected, but I’m confused why this would result in a rate increase. Also, Fixated moved my closing date a few times, but luckily I didn’t have another deal at risk.

      Does this sound typical? I’m mainly concerned about the rate change happening without prior notice, especially since both loans started and are closing on the same day.

      I’m scheduled to sign tomorrow and close on Friday. Any advice would be appreciated!

      Thanks!


       A home inspection would not have anything to do with a rate or a refinance for that matter.  Maybe you mean appraisal?  If the appraisal came in lower then what was being using originally that could effect the rate/terms. Should have been discussed of course. 

      Post: DSCR loan for an LLC multiple members. Does the lender look at all credit scores?

      Jay Hurst
      Posted
      • Lender
      • Dallas, TX
      • Posts 1,626
      • Votes 1,105
      Quote from @Michael Nguyen:

      New to this community, heard great things. New investor looking to learn a lot. Thank you in advance. 

      As I mentioned I'm a new investor. I am creating an llc with a couple friends as we go into this new endeavor. My questions is. When getting a DSCR loan whose credit score is the lender going to use? Will they require all members or just one?


      There are hundreds of DSCR program out there. Some will require to use the lowest credit score while others will just require the majority owner or use the highest if all equal. It just depends on the program. But, understand they will all have slightly different pricing as well, and when you "layer risk" rates/terms go up.

      Post: Does paying off a mortgage early affect future loans?

      Jay Hurst
      Posted
      • Lender
      • Dallas, TX
      • Posts 1,626
      • Votes 1,105
      Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:
      Quote from @Patrick Roberts:

      In short, no. The vast majority of "regular" or traditional (Conv/Govt) mortgages are originated by specialty lenders and brokers and are sold in the secondary market to provide yield on bank balance sheets (think Chase or BoA) or to be securitized into MBS. The investors in the secondary market have a very good grip on the prepayment risk associated with a drop in mortgage rates and use pricing or yield to offset this, which is why you so often hear of borrowers paying points and lender fees. None of these originators are allowed to assess you as a higher risk because you paid off a mortgage early. 

      That being said, most originators are hit with a clawback penalty if you payoff your loan within 6-9 months, meaning that the originator has to repay all commissions and fees to the buyer of the loan if you payoff the loan within that period. I mention this because if you're working with a lender or broker and tell them up front that you intend to payoff your loan in a few months, they probably arent going to waste time on you because they dont want to work for free. They arent really allowed to turn you away, but they will push you away with terrible loan pricing and intentionally bad service. 

      Investment mortgages, like DSCR loans for investment properties, typically come with prepayment penalties (PPP) to protect against prepayment risk and the keep portfolio CPR in line. Three years is the standard PPP, but 0-5 year options are usually available. If you elect a PPP shorter than 2-3 years in most cases, the lender is simply going to collect that fee A) upfront as points rather than as a PPP, or B) with yield, meaning a much higher rate.


      EXCELLENT response to the question.  AS a PML / JV partner I welcome pre pays :)

       Agreed!  Short term lenders balance sheet lenders like myself love pre-pays as most of our profit is in fees, so the quicker we can get the money back the better to relend the same funds.