All Forum Posts by: Jeremy Turner

Pending listings have declined by 10% according NAR.

Decline in the number of pending listings

Dean, I think you should do some more research. If you look at the overall numbers maybe owning is a good idea if you have a long term perspective, but you also have to take a lot of things into consideration. 

As for the overall economy, we have record level personal debt here in the United States (yes even higher than before the GFC). Rental assistance programs are ending and the discretionary spending habits of people are going to change creating downward pressure upon the wannabe VRBO/AIRBNB millionaires. Foreclosures are up, and trending in a negative direction, and this is just getting started as this is a lagging indicator as we are just in the time frame that it would take for the moratorium to end and these to make it into the funnel. We are seeing a large number of car loans being severely delinquent. Needless to say, I am more of a bear when it comes to the economy, and there are RE markets that are contracting already, and if you dig into the raw data even Florida is seeing some declines in many pockets. BUT, I am also chomping at the bit, as I am sitting on cash waiting for the "blood in the streets" to start (as the old saying goes). 

"Crashes are best times to get rich."  - Robert Kiyosaki

But one thing I would like to warn about, do not sit with too much money in one bank:

Why not to keep all your money in one bank

Good luck to you. 

Julia, is that the case in all markets or just in Jacksonville? 

Cam, that is a great analysis. I think most of us realize, just as before that the market run up was/is really created by unsustainable forces. Before it was the 0% interest balloon mortgages that created much of the problem (not nearly the only cause) and now it is the artificially low interest rate. When I first purchased my home in 2003 I got a 4.75% interest rate and my lender told me at the time that it was the lowest term he had ever seen..... Now we had that or lower for several years. So, while I think the fundamentals of the economy appear to be somewhat better, I agree with your assessment, we are in for a bumpy ride.I believe this is when most of us should be positioning ourselves for some good deals. 

William, first of all, thank you for your service. I wish I could give you better advice, but I feel the same as you, deals are extremely difficult to come by. I am seeing more and more investors speculating on GARBAGE deals. At some point the peak will be reached and many will be stuck with things that will crush them.... which I know all to well about. My advice is do your homework and don't feel pressure just to "do a deal" and make sure it makes good sense. You will find one eventually. Good luck. 

Bill,

What you are saying is technically true in a true market. The market he is in may be dominated by REO sales. If REO sales are typical in the market they ARE the market. An appraiser needs to look at this carefully and determine if there is a true market value or there is just a market that is based upon liquidation value. You would really need to know the whole story (market data) to determine which case it was.

Being an appraiser is tricky business right now and the 2nd appraiser may have just had his hand slapped, or worse, or he may have not had a clue what he/she was doing. :oops:

vikram,

I do not know about the appraisers out there (or here for that matter) but they should be taking all market data into account. What are the active listings, and thier history doing? Are they going down? If there are no actives or pendings you may have to go outside of your subject subdivsion to find a competing subdivision. If the active listings have been going down and there are still no sales, that would indicate that the pricing point to entice activity has not been reached yet. Here in FL you are seeing that in a lot of areas. You are also able to see when that has been reached with a surge in market activity.

An appraiser would need more information to be able to give you an accurate picture of what is going on. I hope this helps.

I will vouch for Lou also. His forms are second to none, and are extremely well written.

Unfortunately Ron Legrand ruined Lou. His seminars used to be relatively inexpensive when I first met him. Ron talked him into charging more and I (like an idiot) told him it was worth every penny. I saw him comtemplating it right there. Right after that he started charging more. (Did you ever say anything that after you got done saying it you just wanted to punch yourself?)

DIng, Ding we have a winner!!! Who in thier right minds are going to make a loan to someone if they know they could lose thier money due to the fluctuations of the market?? The interest rates are going to skyrocket, Will any of you be offering owner financing without a LARGE down payment, and some GOOD ROI?

I may be wrong but this is the way I see it.

No the market was inflated due to false stimulus, Not bad appraisals. People buying homes they could not afford, paying too much for them. All due to the governement interference and "affordable loans". When someone has a 0% interest payment they can afford more house, that was thier thinking anyway.

Appraisers interpret the market they do not set the market.

I have a guy who wants to buy a house, he is frustrated with the whole process and had all but given up, I told him not to give up and got hime to explain the circumstances. The long and the short of it is that he got the run around from a builder and a Realtor, and was ready to give up on owning a house. He has down payment assistance in the amount of $10,000. How can I structure a deal and find him a house? I have already explained to him that I intend to make $$ on the deal and he is fine with it.