All Forum Posts by: Karen F.

We aren't looking for properties to purchase now.  But I think that in 3 months' time, there will be a LOT of bargains available.  I myself prefer to put my extra money into the stock market in about 6 weeks, when things are really bad.  I wouldn't be surprised if the market bottoms out at about 15,000 on the DJIA, and after this is all over, will rise dramatically again.  But if someone wanted them, and had cash to buy them, gonna be a LOT of rental real estate on the market for cheap in 3 months' time.

In general, it has been my experience with flu that it's about 6 weeks ramp up time, 2-3 months of high prevalence, and about 6 weeks wind down time.  But there's a vaccine for flu, and much of the population has some immunity to it, plus the incubation period is much shorter, maybe 2-4 days.  The incubation period for coronavirus really IS up to 14 days, and a person can be shedding virus and spreading it for quite a few days before they feel sick, if indeed they ever DO feel sick.  

We are going to follow the path of Italy, Spain (and Wuhan until about a month after the strict lockdown was put into effect), not of most of China.  Our political system will not allow the brutal lockdown that was able to be enforced in China.  What we need is for Trump to order a complete and total lockdown, call out the Army to enforce it, and to set up field hospitals.  We need ALL our governors to order complete and total lockdown, call out the state National Guards to enforce it, and to set up field hospitals.  It's almost too late.  But Trump won't, and by the time the individual governors do, it will be too late.

We're going to have our hospital system collapsing in about 3-4 weeks, with rationing of ventilators according to patient age and risk factors.  Over 55?  Have diabetes, high blood pressure, some form of cancer?  No vent for you, just sedation.  The hospital hallways will be blocked with stacked corpses.

Yes, many people will have mild cases, especially the young.  But with 360 million people, expect at least 70% (probably 90%) to become infected, and with a 2% death rate overall, expect 6 million dead, concentrated largely among the elderly and vulnerable.  If you have a parent in a nursing home, and can possibly bring them home, do so.  Otherwise, they are likely to get it in the home, unless homes lock the caregivers in with the patients, and I haven't heard of any of them doing it.

I'm over 55, and am on cancer treatment, no functioning immune system.  If I get it, I'm dead.   I stocked the house over the past two months with enough food and supplies for more than 3 months, sent my healthy teenager to live with my healthy young adult son the minute school closed, and am on extraordinarily strict lockdown with my husband and daughter (who is on immunosuppressive medication). Another 5 days, and we will know we made it in time.  Meanwhile, a friend who has been on lockdown for 9 days, just came down with the virus.  He's over 60, and has risk factors.  I hope he makes it.

From China, approximate death rate for the young is 1:500.  For people in their 50's, 1%.  In their 60s, 5%.  In their 70's, about 10%.  In their 80's, almost 20%.  They didn't mention for people in their 90s.  Realize that many, many people simply died at home and were cremated (the crematoria were running 24/7 at top capacity for a couple of months, with the cause of death as "died at home")  Those deaths may not be included in these statistics.  I think that Italy's death rate is running closer to 4%, because they're honestly recording the deaths as coronavirus deaths.

Your mileage may vary, according to individual risk factors, and the availability of an ICU bed and a ventilator.

If you have risk factors or are an older adult, STAY AT HOME AND DO NOT GO ANYWHERE!  Keep your entire household at home, do not host visitors, do not go out.

I'm a retired primary care doctor, have lived through several significant viral epidemics, and  lived through the hell of the H1N1 pandemic, which hit my patient population VERY hard, plus I read a lot of history.  If you read the history of the 1918-19 flu, you'll see that history repeats itself.  Here is what I've done with my tenants (we have a little over 30 class C units).  First I sent out texts about a week ago, as soon as school closed, telling them that if they were in trouble, they should reach out to us, that we cared about them.  We DO care about them - these families pay MY mortgage, and pay for my upper middle class lifestyle.  Most of them are good tenants, have been for years.  My self-pay tenants, I told  that even if they'd only had a cut in hours, that they could apply for unemployment, and also food stamps, medicaid, and if there was a disabled person in the home who was receiving home care, or was on the verge of needing to go into a nursing home (God forbid right now), someone might be able to get paid by Medicaid to care for them at home.  My Sec 8 tenants I advised that if they had a reduction in income, they should notify Sec 8 immediately, so that Sec 8 would adjust their payment according to change in income.  I notified them that utility shutoffs were suspended.  Most of our tenants replied that they were fine for now.  One family, with two waitresses and a retired, ill, disabled elderly person, applied for everything I told them about.  

As the situation has developed, I sent out further texts to everyone, warning them of the risk, especially in households with older or vulnerable adults.  I warned them not to flush anything except toilet paper, because of the risk of clogging the plumbing (since a lot of people are having trouble getting toilet paper).  Again, I reminded them that if they were in trouble, rent wise or anything else, they should reach out to us.  Most thanked us, and said they were okay.

It's not altruism.  I feel that our good relationship with our tenants will make them more likely to keep paying us rent, if they can, during this difficult time.  Fact is, with the courts closed, there's no way we can evict someone for non-payment now, even if were wanted to (which we do not).

Six months to pay back?  My tenants live paycheck to paycheck.  They may not HAVE paychecks for the next 3-6 months.  I don't think that they could afford more than 110% of the rent once they start earning again.  Before this all hit, I discussed it with my husband, and said that we were just gonna have to have them pay 110% for the next several years, to pay it back.  We've learned in this business of Class C rentals, you can't get blood from a stone.  How in the world could tenants who miss 3 months' rent, who live paycheck to paycheck, pay it back in 6 months' time?

I posted a warning of this about 6 weeks ago, that tenants would be unable to pay rent if/when the pandemic hit.  My state, CT, put a moratorium on evictions and utility shutoffs about a week ago.  I wouldn't be surprised if it lasts six months.

Here is what we did today.  We have a little over 30 units.  Today we texted all our tenants.  The 3/4 who are not on section 8, we checked in with, asking if they were in trouble (all the restaurant workers are out of work).  We directed them to apply for unemployment immediately, and informed them that they could apply even if they were only on reduced hours, not totally laid off.  We directed people to apply for food stamps, Medicaid, and in cases where there was a disabled relative who was receiving nursing care at home, but teetering on needing admission to a nursing home, that they could apply for paid relative care from Medicaid to keep the relative out of the nursing home.  We advised cutting to basic cable (reduces bill from $200/month to $35/month).  We advised holding off on utility bills, due to suspension of shutoff.  We let them know that we care about them - and we do.  Most of our tenants are good people who pay their rent every month, and support us.

The ones who are on Sec 8, we advised to immediately notify their worker if their income goes down, so that their share of the rent will be adjusted downwards.

I'm hoping that this advice to immediately apply for all government assistance possible will help them to keep being able to pay rent during this crisis.  One cannot apply retroactively for unemployment - it starts only when you apply.  Same for food stamps.  We offered help to all who needed it, in seeking benefits that they are entitled to.  The tenants seemed to appreciate it.  No one said that they expected to not be able to pay rent next month.  Everyone has already paid this month.  Thank GOD we just got out a bad  non-paying tenant on March 7th.  A week later, and we would have had to carry her for I bet the next six months!

Yes, we DO need a moratorium on evictions during the lockdown, and for a month afterwards, unless the government bails out the working class, instead of Big Oil.  But we also need a moratorium on mortgage payments, or the housing market will completely collapse at the same time as the stock market is collapsing (not to mention that those of us leveraged to the hilt will be totally ....)

A couple of months ago, I realized that what had happened in China was likely to happen here, too.  Aside from it being inhumane, no court is going to allow an eviction for non-payment during a lockdown, when tenants have no work!  So I warned that landlords of working class tenants better build up cash reserves.

Our game plan, when the tenants cannot pay, is to carry them, and have them pay 110% every month, once they're able to get back to work, understanding that if the lockdown lasts three months, it may take them two to three years to get back into good standing.  There is no alternative.  Most of these will be good, paying tenants who have been with us for several years, some for a decade.  We cannot evict them, and besides, the courts are not processing evictions anyway!

What's an STR? And I don't think you understood my warning. I wasn't talking about how to position for future profits. I was warning that if/when the country went to lockdown, (which is now imminent), our Class C tenants would not be getting paid, and so would not have the money to pay rent. We're going to have to carry them through until they're back at work, earning, and able to pay rent. So I warned LLs with Class C rentals to build up some cash reserves, in anticipation of no rent. I re-issued the warning a couple of weeks ago, and again today, because there are many, especially in certain political circles, who are still in denial about what is happening/about to happen.

It sucks to be right.  I feel like Dick Deadeye from HMS Pinafore, the much maligned frank voice of reason.  The country will be in lockdown very soon.  Evictions have been suspended (along with utility shutoffs) in many of the states.  Our class C tenants will not be able to go to work, won't be able to pay us.  And the bailout bill bails out BIG OIL (as if they need it), but not the wage slaves, who are our tenants.  Get ready for several months without rent.

Their caseworker is the first person I spoke with.  I'm not talking straight Sec 8.  I'm talking an assistance program when DCF is involved, to try to keep the kids with the parents.  Straight Sec 8 has been a mixed bag - just like self-paying tenants.  But in our experience, every single family that has come with the assistance of an agency has been an unmitigated disaster.  It almost immediately becomes obvious why the family needs the assistance of a caseworker to be housed.

So the caseworker first spoke with the family, and they apparently said they would stop using the space heaters, but would not get rid of the extra tenant (Grandma) .  BTW, the gas heat system had the place at over 78 degrees on a really cold day, so it's not that there is ANYTHING wrong with the heat.  But we went ahead and put in over a grand of additional insulation in the attic, because of their complaint.  The windows are good.  The place is as well insulated and as draft-free as is reasonably possible in a hundred year old building.  They just like to be in t shirts and shorts, and have the kids in just a diaper, in the wintertime. I suspect that they are on an unlimited use electricity subsidy program, and for that reason, they prefer to heat with electricity.  I took a look at the lease, and it specifically prohibits the use of any heating or lighting source other than the gas heating system provided, and the electricity for lighting - no kerosene lamps, no alternate heating system.

So I sent the KAPA letter (as advised by our excellent real estate attorney).  At that point, the tenant, who had ignored previous communication, responded that Grandma is just "visiting" (NOT what she told her caseworker), and that she DOES have a bed in a specific nursing home, that they were just "trying it out", to see if they could manage keeping her with them, and that if they could, THEN they were going to ask if they could have her move in with them, and that meanwhile, one of the bedrooms in the house would be dedicated to her exclusive use when she visits, which means that they are packing 7 children into two bedrooms, with the fourth bedroom set up with a walker, oxygen, all Grandma's needs for when she "visits" but there's not much I can do about them stuffing 7 kids into 2 bedrooms, while keeping a guest bedroom.  Lease says that a guest may only stay 14 days in a year, but tenant is claiming that the law allows 14 days every six months - I cannot find anything confirming that, so I'm telling her she's got to file what is in the lease.

They're not happy about it, but at least now I think that they realize that they cannot have Grandma lose her nursing home bed.  It scares the crap out of me to think of what could happen if they were to cause a fire by using electric space heaters.  The way the unit is set up, Grandma, who uses a walker and is on oxygen, is on the second floor (when she "visits"), and they and their 7 children who are very young, we're talking 5 of them are under the age of 5, are on the third floor.  There is no way they would be able to get everyone out if they were to cause a fire.  Not to mention the fact that they're endangering the other residents of the building with the use of the electric space heaters, overloading the circuits.

They have committed other horrible violations, but that we're getting under control, despite their lack of cooperation.

But now I at least have it documented that they cannot move Grandma in, and that they may not use space heaters. Hopefully, they will accept what they had been told before I agreed to rent to them, and that has now been formalized in the KAPA letter, not to mention in their lease - that they could not add another person to the tenancy.  I just want them to comply with the terms of their lease, and not endanger themselves and the other residents of the building.