All Forum Posts by: Robert Shaw

@Jay Hinrichs is absolutely right. A majority of syndicated deals don't make any sense. I cringe when I see debt deals at 10-15% for HML or judgment financing because spreads are so tight that if just a tiny sliver goes bad, the entire investment is a bust.

Same with the crap sponsors pull off with 10% in self-dealing fees, disproportionate waterfall distributions, properties that don't have any sponsor value-add, and high execution risk projects that are improperly valued for risk.

Investors need to be educated and open their eyes. 

Looked at those projects. They only work because of redevelopment funds. Albany is not a good market in my opinion because the housing stock is old, plenty of better inventory uptown, and high vacancy rate. Rents are low, and college kids prefer cheap old run down units downtown. If college kids have cars, they would go towards the Crossgates/Colonie mall area or Western Ave.

The problems are 1) selling price for new construction are low 2) lots of supply of land to compete against you.

I love land entitlement deals, but only in areas where land is scarce, rental vacancy are high, and SFR goes for at least $400k.

I suggest you join @Mark Robertson 's investor group, where he negotiates better terms for the group as a whole on syndicated deals.  He also runs crowdDD.com where he reviews crowdfunding deals.

Investing is about returns. If you buy and operate yourself, you bought a job.

https://www.census.gov/construction/bps/

In commercial, we don't "flip" we "value-add". I look for value-add projects all day.

Depends on what you mean by commercial construction. For example, you can get MF new construction projects in the pipeline information on a per county basis based on permits. 

It's really easy. Most syndicated products have different classes and capital stack layers, so just take a look at a few PPMs. I know Park Street Partners in mobile home parks just did that in their recent fund.

Sponsors on crowdstreet have multi layer capital stacks as well. 

For ex - You can have classs A shares that pays 15% pref and only 20% of distribution, and class B shares that pays 8% pref and gets 75-80% distribution. Same can be accomplished with min investment amounts of $10k vs $250k.

Kiyosaki is a consumer-facing hack. Not an economist, not an analyst, never worked on wall street. 

Real estate is cyclical, and we're peaking in multiufams. It doesn't mean we'll crash. It just means there's less visibility ahead. 

What I do is I don't buy and hold. I look for value-add deals that exits in 2 years.

I raise my exit cap assumptions to account for rate hikes.

I raise my IRR requirements to weed out weak projects that may not survive a correction.

Stock market is a different game. I can make money whether it goes up or down. The easiest way is to trade volatility.

I don't buy doomsday scenarios because historically, stock traded just fine even during war times. We'll always be the least ugly girl on the block.