Originally posted by @Danielle Jones:
Originally posted by @Steve Vaughan:
The similarity of recently sold properties in your area is key. Not listed property, sold! The method which the properties sold (short/auction sales, seller-financed, etc) and condition of the properties is also huge. Days the sold properties were on market is also important. Did those have exposure? Trust a competent realtor over online sources. Good question @Danielle Jones!
Would you say that actually visiting the property, getting scope of work for improvement would affect thoe numbers? And to get down to it ARV is based on opinion and market, isn't it? So which numbers do I use to make my flip analysis?
@SteveVaughan advise has hit the nail on the head. You really should educate yourself using some of the resources available here in BP for little money.
To address your questions, visiting the property will give you a very good idea of what type of work might be needed, but I would also highly encourage you to seek out and hire a property inspector, and separately a plumber to inspect the plumbing, either before putting in your offer or through due diligence to ensure you don't go over budget on construction costs. That property visit will help you to start an apple for apples comparison of market sale comps which will help you establish an ARV.
More specifically, ARV is a partially subjective matter based on hard data points, but where it becomes subjective is how variables are interpreted differently by different people. Theres no way to teach comp review in a forum. You need to see, hear, and then listen to how experienced people in the marketplace review and analyze comps. In some areas values change signal to signal, in others its block to block, and yet in others its position of the property on the same block. It would be difficult to value a property for ARV if not innately knowledgable about the marketplace/neighborhood.
When those who are experienced in buying properties in areas they don't possess such knowledge of they will locate people/professional who are knowledgable in the marketplace.
Now going back to your original question, you are experiencing different interpretations of the variables in the sale comps (assuming they are actual sales) and its here where you as a real estate investor earn your money.
My suggestion is you teach yourself how to "read" comps, all the data points e.g. price per square foot, lot size, bedrooms, baths, number of rooms, and how to categorize by distance from the subject property (a 3bd 2 ba home 1/2 mile from the subject in the same zip code might be a far cry from a similar home 1/2 a block away).
Go look at comps as an exercise. Look up the value of a 3bd 2 ba home in your city in a neighborhood on the north side of town, and then one similar on the south side of town. Try to drill down on the value for each comparing it to similar closed sales within the last six months. Then compare them, and their supporting comps, to each other. What do you see? Values that are similar in each area? If not figure out why. Did one home have a new kitchen? Maybe a new master bath? Did one have a pool and jacuzzi? How about new windows?
Now finally, how does the north side of town compare to the south side of town? I'd venture to guess you're going to find a different set of values. Yet, because of these variables, and sometimes because someone is trying to sell you, you'll find people will use the north side values to set value for south side properties (east/west, whatever your towns atypical designation might be). One more point, it might not necessarily be the north or south side of town, it might be the north or south side of a particular neighborhood.
In my old neighborhood a home on one side as opposed to the other side sold for as much as $750,000 more for similar types of properties. Data points, location, and similarity all come together when valuing real estate.