They are speculators not income investors.1) Crazy is relative, it's CA you decide. 2) They are not stupid they are gamblers. 3) There are no secrets (see #2), The market is being driven by overpaid, financially illiterate lemmings.

I take calculated risks, but I'm not a gambler and value my sanity.  

@Christina Luton If the numbers have some fluff in them, they can't tie back to the Financials, and they aren't willing to take a lower offer, they are looking for a sucker, an inexperienced investor, or a gambler to do this deal.I see deals all the time that are crap, yet I see people buying them, I also see these same assets showing up for sale 3-5 years later when that gambler bet didn't payoff.

We cannot bid for anything that we are not familiar with. otherwise we are not investors but gamblers.

The fact is that I know investors who are buying for negative cashflow, willing to take a loss every month to realize their gains with appreciation. aka gamblers. 

@Dave Foster  well my kids are going to be happy with the 110 acres I have in Hillsboro Or in about 20 years when I am old an feeble or maybe not here.. that thing will cook off for about 50 to 75 million and at the point it will be free and clear they are just going to have to pay the tax LOL or they can do a massive 1031 and set themselves up.. basis is only 5.5 mil ... you know the gambler I am .. but some day it will happen.. its surrounded by the city has all services and is 1.5 miles from Intels main campus. 

How knowledgeable are you at research and how much a gambler?  

I sometimes wish that experienced investors would laugh me out of the room for this concept, then I wouldn't have so much damn competition from thousands of other wealthy investors in CA, but alas, they're on to me and I can't convince them all that it is just speculation that they should just leave it alone to the gamblers like me :) 

I don't blame the casino for gamblers losing savings.

How can you find the tide early enough to make money but not be a speculator and gambler?