Who’s Ready for a Recession 2020?

109 Replies

We have been on the longest economic boom in history...... ALL great runs come to an end...ALL of them. It will end....not IF....but WHEN...and how HARD.

With the record growth ANY slow down is seen as a HUGE shift.

Am I wishing for a recession..... NO.... that would be stupid......am I wishing for a sow down/correction?,,,, HELL YES...... for multiple reasons....both political and for the sole reason that as stated above...... when you are record highs, there can be a BIG fall, not just a slow let down..... the bigger you are the harder the fall..... I'd rather have some slow down that continue to sky rocket and fall off a cliff

Originally posted by @Hobie Day :

The fact that both the 2-year and 10-year treasury yield have inverted helps back this highly probably claim. Real estate will still be a good play, along with a significant cash holding to take advantage of the pullback in the markets

Stating that the yield curve has inverted isn't enough to support the idea that a recession in 2020 is a "highly probable claim." You need to understand why the yield curve has inverted and the underlying causes behind that inversion. I'm seeing a crazy amount of people with little to no knowledge of fixed income talking about the yield curve.

 

Originally posted by @Jazlynn Gibbs :

Do you think it will be a Recession 2020?

Absolutely ,Hate to sound pessimistic but I've been watching what the stock market gurus are saying, They claim it's inevitable that America was predicted to be the next Venezuela !???😎

 

@Jazlynn Gibbs - contractions are not all bad. just make sure to succeed when economic contractions happens. Buy when others are shy and slow down when others are buying a ton. Just don't dwell and just make sure not to throw the towel. 

I'm told by my FA it's us Nucks up here that kept borrowing strong through the down up, and are leveraged above average. Inventory is heavy on the baby boom generation, and those downsizing their properties are going to have some room to the downside to find the bid as a potential higher debt costing is going to keep bids low. At this time time central banks are willing to keep rates low, and are wise to the cracks in foundation. I'm sick of waiting for the crash, but very cautious as I'm a brand new REI about to enter flipping.

Originally posted by @Michael Justice :
Originally posted by @Jazlynn Gibbs:

Do you think it will be a Recession 2020?

Absolutely ,Hate to sound pessimistic but I've been watching what the stock market gurus are saying, They claim it's inevitable that America was predicted to be the next Venezuela !???😎

 

If they really believed that, they would be cashing out. Do you realize the state of Venezuela economy and the root cause? I am at a loss to understand how we become the next Venezuela. Care to explain or provide legitimate sources for this theory?

 

My prediction is that the next crash will originate with a hard Brexit on Halloween night followed by China strongarming their way over in Hong Kong. This, in turn, will lead to a global financial lockdown as both Hong Kong and London are International financial hubs for their respective geographical regions. I'm starting to prepare now- Will you be ready? 

I didn’t read all the replies but if I knew the answer I wouldn’t be looking for any deals because I’d be so stinking rich I could t stand it. The answer is no one knows. Sometimes it goes up and sometime it goes down.

According to the past trends the yield curve gets inverted prior to the

recession. That's when long term interest fall and short term interests

go up. This contributes to everyone's panic, and can potentially cause

the recession in itself. This happened again last week. The only thing

that we cannot know is how soon it will come. It could be tomorrow or

three years from now. Too many factors to consider that we have no

control over. Stock up on commodities and keep your bills low. This way you can be somewhat recession proof...

KEVIN ALLEN , THAT IS EXACTLY WHAT I WAS THINKING WHEN I POSTED. i HAD JUST FINISHED READING ABOUT THE SUPPOSEDLY UPCOMING RECESSION 2020. I WONDERED IF ANYONE ELSE HEARD...THE NEWS... 😂   PEOPLE ARE-SENSATIONALIZING THE HYPE.


Originally posted by @Erik Whiting :
The last recession was only correctly identified by a handful of people who specialized in out-of-the-box speculative shorting the market.  Read the book/watch the movie "The Big Short" and you'll see that only 1% of 1% of 1% of 1% had both the ability both to PREDICT and TAKE ADVANTAGE of the 2009 Recession.

I haven't seen the movie, but it occurs to me that 1% of 1% of 1% of 1% just got lucky. They bet on 00 and won.

A different 1% of 1% of 1% of 1% could just have easily bet on 35 and been the ones who got lucky. They may get the next one.

My point is, in this great big world, all sorts of people put bets down on all 38 positions of the wheel. No number remains uncovered. Some choose a number with good reasons, some with bad. With every number holding a bet, somebody is guaranteed to win. Then write a book about how smart they were.

 

Seems to me like a lot of unneeded publicity in the media and way overhyped.  I'm not worried my units will still rent just fine. And I can take a hit in cash flow and still be ok.

We can't even trust the media to tell us what is happening right now, and even when video proof exists that they're lying they're still prone to either hold onto the lie or quietly forget about it.

Anyone else remember the frequency of news articles from 2009 to 2016 discussing some negative figure of the economy (Unemployment, manufacturing, GDP, etc) and how it was usually accompanied with the word "unexpectedly"?

"Journalists" have no credibility whatsoever when it comes to predicting the future of the economy. I'd trust my cat or a magic 8-ball first.

This post has been removed.

Originally posted by @Brent Paul :

Seems to me like a lot of unneeded publicity in the media and way overhyped.  I'm not worried my units will still rent just fine. And I can take a hit in cash flow and still be ok.

Right, buy and holds are doing fine. Better than fine, in my opinion. Flips, not so much. I live near Dallas. Our flip market is a train wreck.

 

Originally posted by @Kevin Allen :

I didn’t read all the replies but if I knew the answer I wouldn’t be looking for any deals because I’d be so stinking rich I could t stand it. The answer is no one knows. Sometimes it goes up and sometime it goes down.

I agree, but there are manipulators who cause the phenomenon, namely the Fed, the media, and the Democrat Party, who right now stand to gain politically from as painful a recession as they can inflict. Now is a time to buy in my market (Dallas). 

 

@Jazlynn Gibbs if everyone thinks there is going to be a recession it will cause a recession. If everyone becomes so frighted that the economy is going to crash it will. Why? Because naturally if the majority of people anticipate the economy slowing they will stop spending. Which puts us into a recession naturally. Keep you spirits high, invest,spend responsibly, and you will be fine.

Always a topic on folk’s minds, from past recessions we can look back and get a snap shot of how it might play out.

Lots of over leveraged folks could falter if the price of rent has to fall.

There still seems to be a lack of supply of affordable S.F.H in the market that may keep prices firm.

Originally posted by @Billy Fernandes :

@Jazlynn Gibbs if everyone thinks there is going to be a recession it will cause a recession. If everyone becomes so frighted that the economy is going to crash it will. Why? Because naturally if the majority of people anticipate the economy slowing they will stop spending. Which puts us into a recession naturally. Keep you spirits high, invest,spend responsibly, and you will be fine.

 If only it were that simple. People don't stop investing for no reason. There are events and market manipulations that cause the market to lose confidence and corporations and fat cats to stop investing.

The Fed raised the prime eight times in two years to dump a glacier on a red hot economy. They claimed, as always, that they were fighting inflationary pressures, which didn't exist. It finally worked. Way to go, Fed, you have destroyed a booming economy. They lowered the prime last month to avoid criticism, but like President Trump said (paraphrase), 'It's too late now. You have killed the economy.' 

The Fed is nothing more than a tool for politicians to manipulate the economy. Abolish the Fed! Let the market run itself.

@Jazlynn Gibbs I like this question. I have my single-family home on the market now in hopes to sell before winter. I plan on taking that cash renting through the winter and looking for an investment property in the spring. Would anyone take a look at my listing and give me thoughts. Should I take it off and wait till spring to sell? Or should I sell now and go along with my plan of throwing the cash in the bank. The property is listed on all the normal website Zillow etc. 221 Linden St. in Fall River MA. I appreciate any feedback!

I am hoping no recession but if so I plan on buying multi family so I can live in and rent out, is this a good plan? It’s my first time so any feedback is helpful as long as it’s done in a positive way!

@Jazlynn Gibbs no I don’t think so. I think it will be a boom 2020. The Bible says pride comes before a fall, so let’s all stay humble and love our neighbor and love God first and we’ll be blessed! God can bless you in any market!

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