Advice for First Time Long Term Rental Investor

[Justin Alexander]

Hi everyone! My name is Justin, I'm looking for some advice from anyone out there who has experience in the long term rental game.

I am looking to pickup my first rental property in 2026, currently in the learning faze watching as many BiggerPockets / Real Estate Rookie Podcasts as humanly possible and analyzing deals for hours a day to learn markets. My main issue I'm currently facing is this: Is it "better" to get invested soon on a cheap property with solid cashflow (focusing on Slow BRRR) in a non ideal neighborhood (higher crime, less appreciation, etc) or wait longer while saving for a larger Down Payment to get something in a better neighborhood with maybe less cashflow.

I am currently looking at some cheap Southern / Midwest cities like Louisville KY, Indianapolis IN, Witchita KS. I am finding sub 100k Single Family deals in undesirable neighborhoods with 5-10% CoC returns as well as the opportunity for an easy cosmetic BRRR that are very enticing. Regardless I am planning on having a Property Management Company run the property as I live in CA.

My income is high but varies month to month, guaranteed low 6 figures Annually but some months I am making double my Monthly Income so my savings rate is high.

I figured I can buy multiple of these cashflowing, sub 100k homes next year and work my way up through 1031's in the future. My main concern is running into tenant issues.

Anyone have any pointers / advice? Would be very appreciated as I am just starting out and excited to invest and learn as much as possible!

Thanks!

[Drew Sygit]

@Justin Alexander what assumptions are you basing your 5-10% CoC returns on?

This is IMPORTANT as there are MANY investors that rue the day they used the wrong metrics when buyng, because now their assumptions aren't being met.

Some copy & paste info below on this, DM me if you'd like to explore further:

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How much do you know about Property Classes?

Recommend you spend some time learning about them, so you don’t mistakenly buy a property that will NEVER meet your expectations!

Why is Property Class so important for investors to understand and apply in their investing strategies?

Because the Property Class dictates the Class of the tenant pool that the property will attract.

The Tenant Class greatly impacts rental income stability and property maintenance/damage by tenants.

Both Property Class and Tenant Class will affect what type of contractors, handymen and property management companies you should target and be willing to deal with a property.

The Property Class will also impact the maintenance & renovations you do to, “Maintain to the Neighborhood”.

Why is that important?

Well, if you buy & renovate a property in Class D area to Class A standards, what Tenant Class will actually rent it?

Or, if you put several Class D tenants in a Class A four-plex, what do you think will happen to the property?

So, if you fail to apply the correct assumptions to a property, your expectations won’t be met, and it may even be a financial disaster.

We use the following to rank Property Classes, in order of importance:

• Property Tenant Pool: closely linked to location, but not always.
• Property Location: closely linked to tenant pool, but not always.
• Property Condition & Amenities: it’s important to, “Maintain to the Neighborhood.”

Key metrics for each Property Class:

Class A Properties:
Tenant Pool: Majority of FICO scores 680+, no convictions/evictions in last 7 years.
Tenant Default: 0-5% probability of eviction or early lease termination.
Section 8: Class A rents are too high and won’t be approved.
Vacancies: 5-10%, depending on market conditions.
Cashflow vs Appreciation: Typically, 3-5 years for positive cashflow, but you get highest relative rent & value appreciation.

Class B Properties:
Tenant Pool: Majority of FICO scores 620-680, some blemishes, no convictions/evictions in last 5 years.
Tenant Default: 5-10% probability of eviction or early lease termination.
Vacancies: 10-15%, depending on market conditions.
Cashflow vs Appreciation: Typically, 1-3 years for positive cashflow, balanced amounts of relative rent & value appreciation.
Section 8: Class B rents are usually too high for the Section 8 program.

Class C Properties:
Tenant Pool: Majority of FICO scores 560-620, many blemishes, but should have no convictions/evictions in last 3 years. Verifying recent 2-years of rental history very important! Same for 2-years of job/income stability.
Tenant Default: 10-20% probability of eviction or early lease termination.
Section 8: Class C rents usually meet program requirements, proper screening still recommended.
Vacancies: 10-20%, depending on market conditions and tenant screening.
Cashflow vs Appreciation: Should cashflow immediately, at the lower end of relative rent & value appreciation.

Class D Properties:
Tenant Pool: Majority of FICO scores under 560, little to no good tradelines, lots of collections & chargeoffs, but should have no convictions/evictions in last 12 months. Verifying last 2-years of rental history and income/employment extremely important to find the “best of the worst”.
Tenant Default: 20-30% probability of eviction or early lease termination.
Section 8: Class D rents meet program requirements, often challenges to pass Section 8 inspection.
Vacancies: 20%+, depending on market conditions and tenant screening.
Cashflow vs Appreciation: Typically, all cashflow with little, maybe even negative, relative rent & value appreciation.

Where did we get our FICO credit score information from?

Check out this chart:

FICO Score	Pct of Population	Default Probability
800 or more	13.00%	1.00%
750-799	27.00%	1.00%
700-749	18.00%	4.40%
650-699	15.00%	8.90%
600-649	12.00%	15.80%
550-599	8.00%	22.50%
500-549	5.00%	28.40%
Less than 499	2.00%	41.00%

Source: Fair Isaac Company

Make sure you understand the Class of properties you are looking at and the corresponding results to expect.

Metro Detroit has 132 cities, the City of Detroit 183 Neighborhoods, which we’re analyzing and classifying. Check out the map on our website where we’ve made this all easy to follow.

We can also share numerous examples of properties & portfolios we’ve assisted investors with!

DM us if you’d like to discuss this logical approach in greater detail!

Horror Stories from those that did NOT Understand What they were Buying:

https://www.biggerpockets.com/forums/48/topics/1137397-baltimore-a-path-to-never-ending-pain

https://www.biggerpockets.com/forums/432/topics/1231840-sell-at-a-loss-or-rent-at-a-loss

https://www.biggerpockets.com/forums/311/topics/840134-memphis-turnkey-tenant-turnover-costs

https://www.biggerpockets.com/forums/963/topics/1195280-experience-of-oos-investing-in-cleveland-after-15-years