Resort - Vacation Rental 'Condo' style

[Steve Noel]

Hey all,

I'm in the Madison, WI market looking to get the first deal under my belt.  I got introduced to BiggerPockets about 6 months ago. Since, i've been trying to digest all I can through reading a few multifamily books, listening to the Bigger pockets podcast, and doing a little networking.  I've been searching for a 2-4unit to get started, but haven't been finding anything where the numbers work out ($100 per unit per month cash flow).  

I've recently been turned onto this 'Resort Condo' through our lender that owns 2 of his own.  This is someone we've previously worked with and trust.  

I haven't really done much reading on owning Condos, let alone a Resort based vacation rental condo. We would join their 'owner program' which entails letting the resort property manage it. It's pretty much completely hands off where they do all the renting, calls, money collection, maintenance, lawn/snow care, etc... Obviously they do it for a premium (40%). Some of their other big items are Condo Fee/Amenity fee, which is basically $1500/mo. This also apparently is a 'commercial loan' , with 20% down, 25 year loan, and ARM with refinancing every 5 years.

I've been given data on income/expenses over the last 3 years for this particular unit, along with data from our lender.  After running the numbers conservatively, multiple times, we are right at $200/mo cash flow.

In either case i'd love to know what you all think.  Too risky?  Will this hold up in a 'Market Correction'?  Not enough Cash Flow? Should I wait for a multifamily that makes sense?