Keep a negative cash flowing condo in this market?

Keep a negative cash flowing condo in this market?

Denver, CO · Member since 2025 · 1 post · 0 votes

Hi all,
First time poster, long time listener of the various BP pods. 

I own a 2/1 condo in unincorporated Jeffco just outside of Golden, CO proper. Have had it for a year, and bought it to occupy with my fiancée before upgrading to an SFH.

Plan was to hang onto the condo with a tenant in it and hold for small cashflow and appreciation due to the desirability of Golden (we have a golden address and many don’t even realize we aren’t in the city). The average sale price in our zip was nearly $1 million at the time of purchase last year- it’s now down about 9% per Redfin. 

At this time last year-  units in the complex were renting for $1750/1800, which was about the same as my mortgage payment + condo fees. 

Today, similar units are renting as low as $1550-1600, while my mortgage + HOA fee is nearing $1950 monthly.

Obviously , the market has turned south AND the complex has increased monthly fees, along with adding a special assessment. The HOA is extremely incompetent- they only allow cronies of its president onto the board. The fee is $500 monthly for no amenities of any kind (the pool was filled in with concrete in the 1990's). The parking lot is riddled with potholes. The exterior stairways and landings are in very poor shape. abandoned / unregistered cars sit in the parking lot, homeless sometimes camp out, etc.

On top of this, our little sub market is being discovered. New luxury rental buildings have come online, one just broke ground half a mile away, and another is approved and will go up right next door (200 rental units). It is in a “path of progress” as far as being the cheapest area of a very expensive, desirable town. 

Choices are:

A. I paid $259k, and could realistically unload it for $225k today. 


B. Or I could rent it out and negative cash flow at roughly $325/month. 

My concerns: 

There is a real risk of a even higher negative cash flow after the next budget is rubber stamped. The complex also lost FHA status due to it having far more tenant occupied units than owner occupied (they don't official track this, violating their own by-laws).

 Conventional loans are still possible, but harder to get because the master insurance policy on the roof is inadequate.

Finally, reserves are very low.  The building is 50 years old and full of deferred maintenance.  Many owners bought a long time ago and aren’t involved in the management of the community.  

Short term rentals under 30 days aren’t allowed. Some owners appear to try advertising 30 day+ stays on various platforms. 

For a “TLDR”:


Should I keep a condo in a gentrifying area, but in a very troubled complex, and bank on future appreciation? This would lose $325 a month, and probably a lot more after the next budget is ratified. It would likely take years for my value to recover in real $ to the purchase price, let alone higher  

Or should I “rip off the band aid,” and unload a condo that negative cash flows and likely will for the foreseeable future given the state of the Denver market, as well as new, much nicer units being built in the immediate area?    I’d lose about $50k doing this. 

For what it’s worth, an agent thinks I should hang onto it. There are 8-9 other units in the complex for sale currently, all of which have had price cuts or fallen out of contract. 

Thank you for any insights you may have and sorry for being long winded. I felt the nuance of the condo issues were germane to the choice here. 

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Real Estate Agent · Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2018 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
1y

So I just sold a condo in a similar situation. We were one of seven on the market. I told my Seller that unfortunately, she will have to compete on price. She did and we were the only one that got sold. In her case, my Seller still came out ahead and was happy.

I know it sounds weird but I would actually consider joining the board and impose a loan on the complex, get this work done, and then impose a massive special assessment to cover it. The condo market is suffering across the board and there isn't really an immediate end in sight (although it will eventually pass). But I have seen some complexes sell for a premium if they are in decent shape since there is still demand for affordable housing. 

If you don't want to put in the legwork, then I would consider selling at a loss. You are putting the future of the complex in the hands of the HOA Board members, who are really just volunteers that don't necessarily have the credentials to manage a complex.

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  • Real Estate Agent · Kansas City · Member since 2018 · 4k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    1y

    Man this is tough. Initially I would cut your losses and sell but I think other condo owners are thinking the same. Not sure if you would even be able to sell it for awhile with how soft the demand is. Renting it out isn't a end of the world till you see how the market goes. Both scenarios you will lose money. Is there a way to try STR or MTR for the condo? Not sure if you can increase your cashflow to help the bleeding.

  • Member since 2025 · 111 posts · 123 votes
    1y

    Oof, this is a tough one. If the HOA aspects are truly as your describe, why not a third option - take that loss budget and put it towards an attorney to hold them accountable? To be clear, my firm does not practice in this area of law, but for a few thousand you could at minimum ensure that the budget doesn't go up, and if your attorney finds true malfeasance, you could find a windfall and turn the area around. Especially if you are planning on leaving, and willing to leave at a loss, it's not like you will be burning bridges here.

    Note: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute legal, tax, financial, or investment advice. No attorney-client, fiduciary, or professional relationship is established through this communication.

  • Real Estate Broker · Northeast PA · Member since 2017 · 2k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    1y

    Dump it.  

    Be very wary of an HOA going forward. Use the cash you do have to buy appreciating assets. Buckle up for the ride--it may get bumpy.

  • Real Estate Agent · Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2018 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    1y

    So I just sold a condo in a similar situation. We were one of seven on the market. I told my Seller that unfortunately, she will have to compete on price. She did and we were the only one that got sold. In her case, my Seller still came out ahead and was happy.

    I know it sounds weird but I would actually consider joining the board and impose a loan on the complex, get this work done, and then impose a massive special assessment to cover it. The condo market is suffering across the board and there isn't really an immediate end in sight (although it will eventually pass). But I have seen some complexes sell for a premium if they are in decent shape since there is still demand for affordable housing. 

    If you don't want to put in the legwork, then I would consider selling at a loss. You are putting the future of the complex in the hands of the HOA Board members, who are really just volunteers that don't necessarily have the credentials to manage a complex.

  • Denise SuppleeBusiness Member
    Realtor · Willow Grove, PA · Member since 2017 · 974 posts · 641 votes
    1y

    The reality is, even in a "path of progress," the specific property fundamentals still matter. Right now, your HOA's dysfunction, high fees, deferred maintenance, loss of FHA approval, and competition from new luxury rentals create a perfect storm where values may be capped and cash flow will be negative for a while. Future appreciation might happen, but it could take years just to break even—especially since the HOA's decisions can directly impact your property's desirability and financing options.

    You basically have two paths:

    If you hold, go in with eyes wide open that you’re taking on a speculative bet for long-term appreciation while absorbing a growing monthly loss. That can work if you’re comfortable funding that loss for years, but make sure it won’t strain your other investing or personal goals.

    If you sell now, yes, you’ll lock in a loss, but you free up capital and mental bandwidth to redeploy into an asset with healthier fundamentals whether that’s in Colorado or elsewhere. Sometimes taking a smaller hit today is better than death by a thousand cuts.

    If it were me, I’d look hard at my bigger portfolio strategy: does this property actually serve it, or is it an emotional hold because of location potential? If it doesn’t fit the numbers and the management situation can’t realistically improve, it’s worth considering “ripping off the Band-Aid” and moving that money into something more predictable.

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  • Ned CareyPro Member
    Moderator
    Investor · Baltimore, MD · Member since 2008 · 17k+ posts · 13k+ votes
    1y

    @William Hudson the answer is perfectly clear - SELL   .   .   .

    Oh wait a minute there are 8 or 9 on the market now. That does make the decision a little less clear. Let me ask you a question that might help clear it up. If you could buy one of the other units for $25K less than they are currently listed for would you buy it? My guess is no.

    So if you wouldn't buy another one at a good price why would you consider keeping yours? 

    • Real Estate Agent · Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2018 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
      1y
      Quote from @Ned Carey:

      @William Hudson the answer is perfectly clear - SELL   .   .   .

      Oh wait a minute there are 8 or 9 on the market now. That does make the decision a little less clear. Let me ask you a question that might help clear it up. If you could buy one of the other units for $25K less than they are currently listed for would you buy it? My guess is no.

      So if you wouldn't buy another one at a good price why would you consider keeping yours? 


       Using this logic you can argue that you should buy more units in the building so that you have more voting power to get the building up to snuff. Just make sure to stay below the threshold to prevent financing issues. 

  • Ned CareyPro Member
    Moderator
    Investor · Baltimore, MD · Member since 2008 · 17k+ posts · 13k+ votes
    1y

    @Rick Albert interesting thought, I asked the question because buying more might be a yes. It could be an opportunity to buy low.  Probably not my cup of tea however. 

  • Dan H.Pro Member
    Investor · Poway, CA · Member since 2015 · 7k+ posts · 8k+ votes
    1y
    Quote from @William Hudson:

    Hi all,
    First time poster, long time listener of the various BP pods. 

    I own a 2/1 condo in unincorporated Jeffco just outside of Golden, CO proper. Have had it for a year, and bought it to occupy with my fiancée before upgrading to an SFH.

    Plan was to hang onto the condo with a tenant in it and hold for small cashflow and appreciation due to the desirability of Golden (we have a golden address and many don’t even realize we aren’t in the city). The average sale price in our zip was nearly $1 million at the time of purchase last year- it’s now down about 9% per Redfin. 

    At this time last year-  units in the complex were renting for $1750/1800, which was about the same as my mortgage payment + condo fees. 

    Today, similar units are renting as low as $1550-1600, while my mortgage + HOA fee is nearing $1950 monthly.

    Obviously , the market has turned south AND the complex has increased monthly fees, along with adding a special assessment. The HOA is extremely incompetent- they only allow cronies of its president onto the board. The fee is $500 monthly for no amenities of any kind (the pool was filled in with concrete in the 1990's). The parking lot is riddled with potholes. The exterior stairways and landings are in very poor shape. abandoned / unregistered cars sit in the parking lot, homeless sometimes camp out, etc.

    On top of this, our little sub market is being discovered. New luxury rental buildings have come online, one just broke ground half a mile away, and another is approved and will go up right next door (200 rental units). It is in a “path of progress” as far as being the cheapest area of a very expensive, desirable town. 

    Choices are:

    A. I paid $259k, and could realistically unload it for $225k today. 


    B. Or I could rent it out and negative cash flow at roughly $325/month. 

    My concerns: 

    There is a real risk of a even higher negative cash flow after the next budget is rubber stamped. The complex also lost FHA status due to it having far more tenant occupied units than owner occupied (they don't official track this, violating their own by-laws).

     Conventional loans are still possible, but harder to get because the master insurance policy on the roof is inadequate.

    Finally, reserves are very low.  The building is 50 years old and full of deferred maintenance.  Many owners bought a long time ago and aren’t involved in the management of the community.  

    Short term rentals under 30 days aren’t allowed. Some owners appear to try advertising 30 day+ stays on various platforms. 

    For a “TLDR”:


    Should I keep a condo in a gentrifying area, but in a very troubled complex, and bank on future appreciation? This would lose $325 a month, and probably a lot more after the next budget is ratified. It would likely take years for my value to recover in real $ to the purchase price, let alone higher  

    Or should I “rip off the band aid,” and unload a condo that negative cash flows and likely will for the foreseeable future given the state of the Denver market, as well as new, much nicer units being built in the immediate area?    I’d lose about $50k doing this. 

    For what it’s worth, an agent thinks I should hang onto it. There are 8-9 other units in the complex for sale currently, all of which have had price cuts or fallen out of contract. 

    Thank you for any insights you may have and sorry for being long winded. I felt the nuance of the condo issues were germane to the choice here. 


     In my underwriting I use the conservative number in any range.  This places your cash flow far worse than your calculation.

    $1550 (rent) - $38 (2.5% vacancy based on local vacancy rate) - 1950 (piti + HOA) - $200 (maintenance/cap ex) - $155 (pm all inclusive - even if self managing allocate for cost as your time has value) = negative $793

    This negative cash flow projection has to be combined with the various HOA issues.

    I have posted numerous times that building wealth is about total return and the best cash flow over long holds is in markets with highest rent growth.   There is a strong correlation between appreciation and rent growth.  The analysis therefore must include appreciation forecasts.

    Golden has pretty good long term appreciation, but its near term appreciation has not been good relative to other markets (it is not that golden has been poor, but other markets have done great).   

    https://www.neighborhoodscout.com/co/golden/real-estate

    So the question is will the appreciation be able to over come the negative cash flow and HOA issues. I personally would feel more comfortable if the recent appreciation was at least average. Because the near term appreciation is below average, I likely would sell (I virtually never sell) and cut the losses.


    good luck

  • Eric DeNardoPro Member
    Real Estate Agent · Denver · Member since 2020 · 364 posts · 151 votes
    1y

    @William Hudson - suggest selling - but it's not easy to sell condos right now. They are being significantly discounted, especially for high HOAs like yours. 

    Happy to have a conversation about potential strategies to get it sold or how to cover your mortgage for meantime. 

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