determining appropriate comps

[Tim Dailey]

Hi all-

My wife and I have found a property and we are having problems determining comps for.  Our strategy is to buy and fix.  We are still determining whether to hold for 1 or more years with a tenant to create tax and 1031 benefits, or sell once flip is complete.

Property: 3-1, 1890's colonial, 1360 sf in a growing area less than 70 miles from the Big Apple.

Purchase 108,500

Rehab 20-30k 

comps:  Our agent says it could go for 260 (no way).  comps range from 156 to 290 for similar properties within 1.5 miles over past 12 months.

At 220 we make a great return and at 190 we run a risk of going red with holding costs.

We've analyzed 50 comps and pulled 8 that we feel are most representative.  They range from 156 to 260.  The ones on the high end are on less land, but newer construction ranches in a specific neighborhood very close by, and not really that great.  All properties are similar square footage and 3-1 and 3-2.

I've been breaking them apart and trying to compare as J Scott recommends in his "Book on Flipping Houses," and we still can't determine exactly where the property falls.

Does anyone have any advice to sort through all the data regarding comps?

Thanks,

Tim